If you were starting a new rtr manufacturer...

[black and decker boy]

19 minutes ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

You don't think that the current situation between Hornby and the retailers is a problem? Especially those retailers who have been put in "tier 3".

It’s little different to Bachmann & Hattons a few years ago and seems to align Hornbys trading arrangements with those used by Bachmann 

 

I don’t remember anyone clammering for others to set up a new manufacturing business back then (I note that all of the noise you are making is to get other people to invest their £millions, which you claim they are sat on, into this venture).

 

why don’t you just let those retailers who you claim have the means to do this get on and launch their mass market budget ranges rather than filling social media with your shouts and ‘plans’ as surely such good businesspeople that have built up their reserves into £millions will know their market better than you and will be 2 steps ahead of you. Or maybe they already know it’s a non starter and would rather keep their £millions rather than see them disappear in a vanity project.

Edited May 23, 2021 by black and decker boy

[adb968008]

20 minutes ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

You don't think that the current situation between Hornby and the retailers is a problem? Especially those retailers who have been put in "tier 3".

I’m not sure how making a new railroad range solves that problem ?

 

It does seem this topic is asking one question, but answering another.

 

Is there a market for new railroad.... I believe yes, but it needs to be a nod to the future, not the past.

Is there other things that could be made with a greater return.. yes.

 

Unfortunately the answer to the 2nd, precludes investment in the 1st.

 

Hornby is Hornby, everyones first trainset is a Hornby.

 

I think the more important question is IF there is a second trainset, who’s is it ?

But neither does nothing for a Shop in Tier 3.. be it a Covid tier or a Hornby tier (i’m not sure which your referring to, but think it applies to both).

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 23, 2021 by adb968008

[Joseph_Pestell]

3 hours ago, Kris said:

Closest you get to a modern image train set from Hornby at the moment appears to the an HST or Eurostar. 

 

which have zero play value.

[Joseph_Pestell]

5 minutes ago, black and decker boy said:

 

 

I don’t remember anyone clammering for others to set up a new manufacturing business back then (I note that all of the noise you are making is to get other people to invest their £millions, which you claim they are sat on, into this venture).

 

 

 

Yes, but Bachmann quickly sorted it out. Hornby don't seem to have the will to do the same.

 

As to the figures, they are out there. The people concerned will make their own decision and I am perfectly OK with that.

 

But answer me the question that I asked earlier. If you are a retailer who has been put in "tier 3" and set to lose 30% (?) of your turnover (probably fatal for the future of your business, do you sit back and take it? Or do you do something to replace that takeover. I can't answer for them but I certainly know what I would be doing.

[mdvle]

2 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Just about everything they made, is still around us today, including the Manors. 

 

Well, if your now going to expand modern to include anything that still exists today that makes Bachmann and Hornby modern manufacturers as well.

 

Quote

I wish Accurascale well (i need too i’m heavily invested in their range), but I do wonder if the Manor (and MDO) are their best decisions... fyi, I own a lot of steam as well as modern in my collection so ive no real dog in that fight.

 

Well, at least with the Manor they were at least agreeing with the wishlist poll.

 

Quote

You forget preservation sells... preservation is a huge part of todays hobby.. if it wasn't there wouldn't be 300+ miles of track and 600 odd locos running on them.

 

Actually, I didn't - because I'm not the one who has repeatedly posted that the existing manufacturers are wrong with their product selections and that they are all ignoring the only market that now matters (post 1995).

 

Quote

which do you reckon would sell more,  if some made a railroad K2 or a K4 ?

 

Can't say, for steam I am GWR fan, but I suspect it wouldn't matter - a Railroad K2 or K4 would likely both fail financially as the majority of the market overlooked them and instead spent money on other new detailed items.

 

Quote

Whats got more potential for future long term sales, a class 124 or a class 180 ?

 

At a guess, neither. 

 

Ignoring age the Class 124 has the issue that it essentially was a 6-car unit for the trans-Pennine route - so limited geographic appeal.

 

Class 180 appeared in more places, but for the majority of the market who don't care about accuracy there will be other options to model their favourite railway/livery than a small class of units.

 

(which isn't to say at some point one or both won't be offered - but I don't think either have a great long term decade or more sales potential)

 

Quote

I keep saying the same thing.. Relevance to the consumer.

 

And as you stated in your previous post, the consumer that matters in this hobby today is the 45 to 65 year old - the ones who for the most part (as always) are recreating their youth - which means late 70s/80s/early 90s.

 

Yes, a percentage of them will be modelling the current scene (because there always is) - but that's not where most of the money is.

 

Quote

Hornby is milking the HST today not because it was made in 1977 and ran for 40 years, the 1st tooling sold that. But because they retooled it a decade ago.. that forsight is paying dividends today..

 

It's also from a different era, where it was more a case of you buy what we make, so they didn't have to worry about covering their tooling costs.

 

And more importantly, it isn't a multiple-unit which means it can be bought over time to make a complete train.

 

Quote

even if they wont be able to buy a class 180 model, as the hobby stopped tooling anything when BR did... I think its kind of arrogant to expect they will go home to buy a Fowler 2-6-2T instead, it is entirely possible they will go HO and buy a Vectron instead as they can see it across Europe and buy it, youngsters travel too.

 

Well, they did travel.

 

To be clear, I'm not saying modern image models shouldn't be made, nor am I saying kids should be forced to by an old steam loco.

 

But comparing the UK to the EU is unfair.

 

Your Vectron loco has hundreds in service (I stopped counting at 300) and serves a market of over 250 million people.

 

If anyone in the UK ordered several hundred locos today it would be available in model form - it's not the model manufacturers fault that the last large loco order was the Class 66 (with multiple models available).

 

And even with those limitations Revolution has the Class 93 coming, which at 30 units seems to qualify as a major order for locos in the UK today, but isn't great from the making a model perspective.

 

But at the end of the day, the manufacturers go where the money is - and while I think they are wrong the loud voices complaining about prices has convinced them that there is no market for the longer multiple-units, and with multiple-units being the modern railway we are currently in a catch-22.

 

Quote

There is a vocal steam majority on here, ive yet to see any steam prototype reach the dizzy heights on ebay that modern image does, my inbox is filled weekly with little black steamies at bargain prices...maybe the voice shouts louder than the wallet ?

 

eBay has always been a poor indicator of popularity, and the modern image issue is likely just as much related to the refusal of the older manufacturers to enter the modern time and offer multiple different liveries in each run thus forcing people to look to eBay for previous run when the livery they want was actually made.

 

[PMP]

14 minutes ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

Or do you do something to replace that takeover. I can't answer for them but I certainly know what I would be doing.

If you’re referring to Tier 3 retailers  who says they aren’t? 

[Joseph_Pestell]

2 hours ago, MyRule1 said:

Many posts have pointed out the the only certainty about launching a comprehensive range of models is bankruptcy.  In fact we need to look back around 50 years to learn from the last attempts to do as the op asks.

 

 

 

There are no "certainties" to be derived from comparing the 1970s with the 2020s. We have moved on in all sorts of ways

2 hours ago, MyRule1 said:

 

 

 I also dabbled in "TT" as at that time 2nd hand Triang TT was going for next to nothing. 

 

 

.

Still is.

 

2 hours ago, MyRule1 said:

 

 

Airfix, Palitoy and Lima all started to launch comprehensive ranges in "OO", Lima, Fleishmann and Riviossi all attempt British "HO" - "HO" failed completely, and the other three all went under, as well as Hornby. Now Airfix and Lima exist under the rescued Hornby label (with a few exemptions) and Palitoy came under Bachmann.

 

 

 

No, none of these were "comprehensive" ranges, which is what put them in difficulty. And some of the efforts were downright weird. Nice Mk3 coaches with a Class 40! The HO could have succeeded with a better and, above all, a much wider choice of models. What did a Class 33 have to do with a poor 4F?

2 hours ago, MyRule1 said:

Many posts have pointed out the the only certainty about launching a comprehensive range of models is bankruptcy.  In fact we need to look back around 50 years to learn from the last attempts to do as the op asks.

 

I came into modelling in the early 1970's in my late teens with disposable income I was tempted by the launch of Graham Fairish "N" gauge, a range which has now grown to a comprehensive range. I also dabbled in "TT" as at that time 2nd hand Triang TT was going for next to nothing. But it what happened over those years that made me make the switch to "OO".

 

Airfix, Palitoy and Lima all started to launch comprehensive ranges in "OO", Lima, Fleishmann and Riviossi all attempt British "HO" - "HO" failed completely, and the other three all went under, as well as Hornby. Now Airfix and Lima exist under the rescued Hornby label (with a few exemptions) and Palitoy came under Bachmann.

 

if these attempts failed in the booming market of the 1970's what hope is there today?

 

Take a look at the Hornby Group web-site: they have the entire market sown up. From the budget toy trains to the premium market everything is there.

 

As a host of new entrants have shown commissioning single models fitting a niche in the market does work: identify you niche, gain the buyers trust through successful deliveries, deal direct without any retail mark up, and you might make a living and return on your capital.

 

2 hours ago, MyRule1 said:

Take a look at the Hornby Group web-site: they have the entire market sown up. From the budget toy trains to the premium market everything is there.

 

 

Hardly! Only three years ago they managed to lose a sum of money equivalent to 25% of turnover. Eye-watering!

 

Even now, they are at about 10%. Hardly the performance of a company that "has the market sown up". Indeed, irrespective of the current issues with the retailers, Hornby can only survive for 18 months on its current performance. It is simply burning too much cash. And that is not even considering what the cash-flow situation may be. As a credit controller (in a past career), I know that many more companies fail due to cash-flow issues than profitability. 

[mdvle]

44 minutes ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

You don't think that the current situation between Hornby and the retailers is a problem? Especially those retailers who have been put in "tier 3".

 

Is it a problem?  Absolutely.

 

But making the financial problem those retailers are facing worse by having them lose money trying to go head-to-head with a budget range from Hornby isn't going to help them.

 

As I said in another post, they need to find a way to replace that lost revenue - and the answer to that problem is unlikely to be starting yet another manufacturer in the already crowded if not over-crowded UK market.

 

 

[mdvle]

3 minutes ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

Even now, they are at about 10%. Hardly the performance of a company that "has the market sown up". Indeed, irrespective of the current issues with the retailers, Hornby can only survive for 18 months on its current performance. It is simply burning too much cash. And that is not even considering what the cash-flow situation may be. As a credit controller (in a past career), I know that many more companies fail due to cash-flow issues than profitability. 

 

We are about 4 weeks from getting their previous financial year results (the previous results, for year ending March 2020, were posted to RMweb by Phil on June 18th).

 

Given their progression (£2.7m loss in 2020, £4.6m loss 2019, £7.6m loss 2018) it is possible they could break even or slightly better in the just finished financial year.

 

Consider the following quote from Hornby's Interim Report(*), for the 6 months ended September 30th 2020:

 

Quote

Yet we have not only weathered this shattering storm, our sales have increased by 33% in the first half of 2020 (compared to prior year), moving Hornby back into profitability. The growth built on the back of the introduction of some fantastic new products, new technology and the changing environment.

 

And this was in the 'quieter' half of the year; traditionally 55%-60% of our sales fall into the second half.

 

But the original posters point was the relevant one - they have the product mix, and the inventory of old tooling, to offer products across the price points in the hobby - combine that with the brand recognition and it will be difficult to impossible for anyone to effectively take them on.

 

* - https://wp-Hornby-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2020/11/12114059/Hornby-interim-report-Sept-2020.pdf

[adb968008]

50 minutes ago, mdvle said:

 

 

Actually, I didn't - because I'm not the one who has repeatedly posted that the existing manufacturers are wrong with their product selections and that they are all ignoring the only market that now matters (post 1995).

 

....

 

To be clear, I'm not saying modern image models shouldn't be made, nor am I saying kids should be forced to by an old steam loco.

 

The former statement kind of contradicts the latter.

Ive never said “the only market that now matters (post 1995).”

 

the thread is about new railroad..I don't think we need anything historic, steam or diesel, in a new railroad range... i’m not precluding new tooled super-detailed steam..yes thats the only place it would be successful, but thats not what this threads about.

 

We both agree the k2 and k4 would fail, both are railroad steam.

For me i’d love both a 124 and a 180.

 

The thing is, you need to be 40 years old to know a 124, you only need to be 4 years old to know a 180... thats appealing to a much wider age group... however..

 

Quote

But at the end of the day, the manufacturers go where the money is - and while I think they are wrong the loud voices complaining about prices has convinced them that there is no market for the longer multiple-units, and with multiple-units being the modern railway we are currently in a catch-22.

We really do agree here.

The EU comparison is fair, if your a modern image fan in year 2030.. your choices are EU (or US) or rolling back the clock here.. as today, everything BR, right up to Sprinters, possibly some privatisation types getting ready to sunset into history. In oo terms there will be nothing besides a handful of now aging OO privatisation models made between 2010 and 2021 left to pick from as things stand today... or a collection of museum modelling.

The hobby risks becoming as relevant to modern image UK modellers in 2030 as Polish modelling was in year 2000... quite simply because everything “modern” is history.

The grass roots of the hobby, isnt the first trainset, its the growing one... no one grew up with superdetail.. we started with Dublo, Zero1, Lima depending on your age group.. each one was a reflection of History AND Modern as presented that day... however today we only have History, and “on the verge History”... thats my case for new modern railroad ( but accepting that theres established roots strangling the potential for new growth in the future by desires of current market demand..it’s threatening to kill the future).

 

It does seem though Europe has no issue making just about anything modern that moves, including units, which means in 10 years time they still have a “modern” relevant product to sell, alongside the aging and yes more new historic stuff too.

 

 

Edited May 23, 2021 by adb968008

[phil-b259]

1 hour ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

You don't think that the current situation between Hornby and the retailers is a problem? Especially those retailers who have been put in "tier 3".

 

That isn't what I said.

 

Given the reports of Hornby unilaterally cutting the amount of product they supply to retailers its clear there are some problems - but I am also given to understand that the root problem is Hornby not receiving enough product from the factories in China in the first place rather than simply keeping back product for themselves to spite retailers.

 

However, that all says short term supply issues rather than a fundamental long term problem.

 

The 'solution' you keep offering doesn't do anything to address that particular problem - moreover just take a moment to consider how long it would take for a new entrant to design (from scratch) and secure manufacturing slots in Chinese factories to manufacture all the stuff you outlined in your first post and have it all come out within the same calender year.

 

Realistically we are talking about 2 - 3 years work before stuff hits the shelves by which time Hornbys supply problems are likely to have been largely addressed.

 

Moreover, as has been repeatedly explained to you, 'basic' models for beginners are the least profitable part of the model railway market to focus on - which is why pretty much every other RTR player has been content to leave it all to Hornby.

 

 

 

 

Edited May 23, 2021 by phil-b259

[phil-b259]

5 minutes ago, adb968008 said:

 

the thread is about new railroad..I don't think we need anything historic, steam or diesel, in a new railroad range... i’m not precluding new tooled super-detailed steam..yes thats the only place it would be successful, but thats not what this threads about.

 

 

 

 

 

And THIS is the nub of the situation.

 

The thread is NOT about eras or what particular models would be good choices for a new entrant - its about whether an extensive BASIC range of models from a completely new entrant is a remotely viable prospect in the first place.

 

Joseph continues to argue (in spite of all the real world evidence presented here) that it not only work but it would magically cure the issue many retailers are having with Hornby at the moment.

 

If it were that simple then it would have been done by now! We can all have dreams and create wishlists to our hearts content - but unless you can make a sound business case then its not going to happen.

[Dunsignalling]

1 hour ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

Yes, but Bachmann quickly sorted it out. Hornby don't seem to have the will to do the same.

 

As to the figures, they are out there. The people concerned will make their own decision and I am perfectly OK with that.

 

But answer me the question that I asked earlier. If you are a retailer who has been put in "tier 3" and set to lose 30% (?) of your turnover (probably fatal for the future of your business, do you sit back and take it? Or do you do something to replace that takeover. I can't answer for them but I certainly know what I would be doing.

If it was me, I'd be looking to increase the "Hornby-proof" portions of my turnover, i.e. 2mm and 7mm scales and driving up (where possible) the contribution of non-Hornby product in OO.  

 

If Hornby limit the amount of Hornby you can sell, do your damnedest to ensure the money that might have been spent on what you can't get, benefits someone who is willing to supply you. 

 

That said, it's always seemed to me that the rise of commissioning has a lot to do with softening the risks of the very asymmetrical relationships between (relatively) small retailers and much larger suppliers. 

 

Does Hornby's current business model fully justify the term "manufacturer" any longer? I'd think that "designer/commissioner" (albeit on a grander scale than anyone else) would be rather closer to the mark now that actual production is entirely out-sourced.

 

None of the above suggests that attempting to compete head-on with Hornby on a broad front, and deliberately duplicating products they already make, can possibly end more than one way. Even if you could make better and sell cheaper, the target market has to be the people who don't already own those items, a high proportion of whom exclusively equate model trains with the Hornby name.  

 

The cynic in me suspects that Hornby may have started to think that way too, and they can envisage an end-game that is 100% direct selling. The route to that, and its timing, is not yet clear, even to them, but slicing up the different tiers of the retail trade based on how useful Hornby consider them to their own purposes for the time being would be a logical, but reversible, step in that direction.     

 

John

 

 

Edited May 23, 2021 by Dunsignalling

[Phil Parker]

1 hour ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

Phil,

 

Please don't misquote me.

 

I did not say that motorisation was "easy". I said that it was within the skills capacity of anyone who could assemble a fully detailed kit.

 

And I repeat, if you think that is true you've never built a working chassis. Assembling a well designed plastic kit is far easier, and the skill sets are very different. 

[phil-b259]

1 hour ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

 

 

Hardly! Only three years ago they managed to lose a sum of money equivalent to 25% of turnover. Eye-watering!

 

Even now, they are at about 10%. Hardly the performance of a company that "has the market sown up". Indeed, irrespective of the current issues with the retailers, Hornby can only survive for 18 months on its current performance. It is simply burning too much cash. And that is not even considering what the cash-flow situation may be. As a credit controller (in a past career), I know that many more companies fail due to cash-flow issues than profitability. 

 

You are confusing several different things.

 

To take the first point, Hornbys breath of product ranging from budget (ex Lima / Airfix / 80s Horby tooling / new 'railroad spec' designs) to the extremely detailed Merchant Navys and Coronation Scot rolling stock plus track, scenics, buildings, etc means they do indeed have a 'comprehensive' range of products. Any new entrant trying to come onto the scene with a large range of budget items is still going to be dwarfed by the range of products Hornby have in their arsenal.

 

As such Hornbys range is indeed a 'comprehensive' one by any definition of the word - its just not all available all of the time. However remember when Hattons went and announced their super detailed class 66s? Hornby responded very quickly by announcing a large range of ex Lima 66s in exactly the same liveries at least half the price and which hit UK shelves a good few months before the Hattons product arrived. They were only able to do this because of their comprehensive range of models and don't kid yourself that they wouldn't be able to do the same with any new entrant looking to do the same - particularly if it would potentially lead to a loss of market share.

 

Secondly, and remembering we are talking about the 'railroad' or 'basic' end of the market please show me an equivalent product from Bachmann, Dapol, Kernow, Rails, Aucrascale, Hattons, etc. The ONLY RTR manufacturer who has made any attempt to cater for the 'budget' market is Hornby - and as such its not wrong to say the have the market for such basic models sown up".

 

Thirdly - you are not Hornbys banker so you are in no position to declare they are burning too much cash. As was pointed out earlier a couple of years ago the bosses at Barclays had sufficient confidence in Hornbys ability to turn the company around that it gave Hornby a large loan. Since then the financial reports quite clearly show that the new management have been successful in reversing the losses and a return to profitability is very likely in the next year or two. Like changing the direction of the massive container ships which transport Hornbys product to these shores, turning round the financial performance takes time - the key is that the lenders still have confidence that progress is being made towards the agreed goal.

Edited May 23, 2021 by phil-b259

[Mike Bellamy]

1 hour ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

Hardly! Only three years ago they managed to lose a sum of money equivalent to 25% of turnover. Eye-watering!

 

Even now, they are at about 10%. Hardly the performance of a company that "has the market sown up". Indeed, irrespective of the current issues with the retailers, Hornby can only survive for 18 months on its current performance. It is simply burning too much cash. And that is not even considering what the cash-flow situation may be. 

 

Are you talking here about the model railway part of the business as that's what most people think when discussing Hornby - but then as well as the UK, there are also products from Jouef, Pocher, Arnold, Electrotren, Lima and Rivarossi. Of course their other businesses include Scalextric, Airfix, Humbrol and Corgi and as far as I am aware, their annual accounts etc. do not show a detailed breakdown for just the Hornby UK model railway part of the group. Can you say with any certainty that the UK model railway part of the business is profitable?

[Joseph_Pestell]

9 hours ago, phil-b259 said:

 

That isn't what I said.

 

Given the reports of Hornby unilaterally cutting the amount of product they supply to retailers its clear there are some problems - but I am also given to understand that the root problem is Hornby not receiving enough product from the factories in China in the first place rather than simply keeping back product for themselves to spite retailers.

 

However, that all says short term supply issues rather than a fundamental long term problem.

 

The 'solution' you keep offering doesn't do anything to address that particular problem - moreover just take a moment to consider how long it would take for a new entrant to design (from scratch) and secure manufacturing slots in Chinese factories to manufacture all the stuff you outlined in your first post and have it all come out within the same calender year.

 

Realistically we are talking about 2 - 3 years work before stuff hits the shelves by which time Hornbys supply problems are likely to have been largely addressed.

 

Moreover, as has been repeatedly explained to you, 'basic' models for beginners are the least profitable part of the model railway market to focus on - which is why pretty much every other RTR player has been content to leave it all to Hornby.

 

 

 

 

 

You make a few assumptions there which are simply not valid.

 

China? Not necessarily. You rightly point out that they may be part of the problem.

 

Already pointed out higher in the thread that it would not be a 1-year project.

 

And you seem to think that "basic" would be my preference. I have not said that.

Edited May 24, 2021 by Joseph_Pestell
Typo

[Joseph_Pestell]

8 hours ago, Phil Parker said:

 

And I repeat, if you think that is true you've never built a working chassis. Assembling a well designed plastic kit is far easier, and the skill sets are very different. 

 

I have built a few over the years. So long as the loco does not have complex outside valve gear, I don't find it that difficult.

 

I would not fancy my chances with some of those kits.

[Joseph_Pestell]

8 hours ago, Dunsignalling said:

 

 

The cynic in me suspects that Hornby may have started to think that way too, and they can envisage an end-game that is 100% direct selling. The route to that, and its timing, is not yet clear, even to them, but slicing up the different tiers of the retail trade based on how useful Hornby consider them to their own purposes for the time being would be a logical, but reversible, step in that direction.     

 

John

 

 

 

Sadly, the cynic / sceptic in me agrees with yours.

 

A large part of Hornby's clientele who are collectors who would not suffer under this scenario.

 

Others again, are very happy with a train set (setrack pointwork etc). There are a lot of them but we don't see them much on RMWeb.

 

But another segment of Hornby's client base is people with model railways. I have no way of knowing what the percentage is but Hornby will lose those sales if they kill off retail outlets. 

[Joseph_Pestell]

8 hours ago, Mike Bellamy said:

 

Are you talking here about the model railway part of the business as that's what most people think when discussing Hornby - but then as well as the UK, there are also products from Jouef, Pocher, Arnold, Electrotren, Lima and Rivarossi. Of course their other businesses include Scalextric, Airfix, Humbrol and Corgi and as far as I am aware, their annual accounts etc. do not show a detailed breakdown for just the Hornby UK model railway part of the group. Can you say with any certainty that the UK model railway part of the business is profitable?

 

You are quite right. The accounts don't give us enough detail to see where those losses were made. It's always rather puzzled me that a business with so many strings to its bow, and therefore product lines, can have such a low turnover.

 

In common with other leisure products manufacturers, Hornby saw sales increase during lockdown which should come through as a return to profitability. We shall see. Turnover is vanity, profit is sanity

 

[Dunsignalling]

Really?

 

If that did turn out to be the eventual scenario, and Hornby (as they inevitably will) subsequently introduce models you want/need to create the layout you are building, you would go without just because you had to buy direct from them? 

 

TBH, all retailing is currently in a state of flux, and the only thing that those who make their living from it can be certain of, is uncertainty. We notice how it affects those outlets and traders we deal with, and would greatly miss if they were no longer there, but the same applies in almost every field.  

 

John

Edited May 24, 2021 by Dunsignalling
Replying to the post before last

[Craigw]

17 minutes ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

Sadly, the cynic / sceptic in me agrees with yours.

 

A large part of Hornby's clientele who are collectors who would not suffer under this scenario.

 

Others again, are very happy with a train set (setrack pointwork etc). There are a lot of them but we don't see them much on RMWeb.

 

But another segment of Hornby's client base is people with model railways. I have no way of knowing what the percentage is but Hornby will lose those sales if they kill off retail outlets. 

 

 

While i do support Hobby shops, the fact is that the majority of retail shops - which are now RTR centric have very little for me. As one who spends most of his money on kits and related items, I put very little through shops. Retail hobby shops are very vulnerable to manufacturers deciding to direct marketing and here in Australia direct marketing by manufacturers is the rule rather than the exception.

 

It is a cold, hard fact that as far as Hornby (or any other manufacturer) is concerned that 30-40% that goes to a retail store can be taken by them . They can still advertise in magazines and get the word out. They do not need the Hobby shops, but the shops need them - which is perhaps the reason a number of shops have got into the manufacturing game themselves.

 

Craig W

[phil-b259]

2 hours ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

You make a few assumptions there which are simply not valid.

 

 

 

With respect, so are you!

 

The biggest being that Hornbys woes will be long lasting or cause them to disappear and a new entrant to replace them is what the hobby needs.

 

Then implication that this new entrant would find it easy to quickly offer a large co-ordinated range of products - in contrast to all of the other new entrants we have seen recently who have confined themselves to one loco / wagon at a time.

 

 

2 hours ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

And you seem to think that "basic" would be my preference. I have not said that.

 

 

On Friday you said...

 

 

On 21/05/2021 at 13:09, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

But that is the whole point of this thread. Hornby has an established go-to brand in the world of family railway modelling. And they are flushing that brand down the loo with their current treatment of retailers and the choice to go with high-price (by UK historical standards) super-detailed locos.

 

Nor do families want locos that are difficult to handle but not robust in operation. The quality of motors in these expensive locos is lamentable. For just a couple of quid more, they could be so much better.

 

Steam locos are particularly difficult in this regard. We want valve gear that looks the part but that is, inevitably. fragile. Making a robust diesel or electric is rather easier.

 

 

 

The implication of this (and other posts) being that the hobby needs more basic, robust and modern models but as Hornby is on the ropes we need someone else to come in and fill the void.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Again

[black and decker boy]

It’s been 

1 hour ago, phil-b259 said:

 

 

With respect, so are you!

 

The biggest being that Hornbys woes will be long lasting or cause them to disappear and a new entrant to replace them is what the hobby needs.

 

Then implication that this new entrant would find it easy to quickly offer a large co-ordinated range of products - in contrast to all of the other new entrants we have seen recently who have confined themselves to one loco / wagon at a time.

 

 

 

 

On Friday you said...

 

 

 

 

The implication of this (and other posts) being that the hobby needs more basic, robust and modern models but as Hornby is on the ropes we need someone else to come in and fill the void.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Again

I think you are wasting your breath.

 

It’s been clear for a while on here and other threads that Joseph Pestell is simply trolling Hornby and trying to incite mass abstention of their products and engineer their downfall allowing some mythical new entrant to ride over the hill with a readymade, wide range of low price ‘budget’ models.

 

What his true motives are in his 1 man crusade remain unclear.

[PMP]

4 hours ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

 

Others again, are very happy with a train set (setrack pointwork etc). There are a lot of them but we don't see them much on RMWeb.

 

But another segment of Hornby's client base is people with model railways. I have no way of knowing what the percentage is but Hornby will lose those sales if they kill off retail outlets. 

This is utter fantasy and shows how little Joseph knows of the market. 
 

Apparently the set track users don’t frequent this forum. A quick look at the layouts thread section indicates they

are here en masse.

 

Now I don’t know what the difference is between a set track layout and a ‘model railway’ is but there’s no distinction between them in my eyes. It’s easy to see excellent and poor examples across the hobby of set track vs other track from either perspective. To a retailer they are still customers. There’s a reason that HO set track is the biggest selling type of track across the world from all manufacturers 

 

I probably fit into the ‘model railway’ category above. For years the Internet and shows have been my primary source of products, and the same is true for many of my associates, so there’s no change there, and I use primarily RTR motive power. 

All this guff regarding Hornby and their new system reminds me of the LoCo airlines of 15-20 years ago. They wouldn’t survive, we need travel agents, people won’t buy for themselves etc etc. Who’s going to open a travel agency now?, which is what Joseph wants Hattons to do.