The shrinking Royal Navy

[Ozexpatriate]

I'd have thought a blimp is a dead duck in any shooting war where the enemy has relatively fast jets - too slow to get out of the way.

Blimps are a dead duck, but not because they are too slow. They can only be safely operated in nice weather. They can only be safely parked in the open in nice weather.

 

This is a lesson learned long ago, but the US had a recent reminder with the JLENS blimp. It's dragging tether caused power outages as it wandered off. JLENS funding was subsequently cut.

 

There are huge hypothetical operational benefits in terms of being a stable monitoring platform, but again, only in nice weather, so not very useful, and particularly so at sea.

[Mike Storey]

Surely a cluster of high altitude drones would be a better AEW solution?

[BlackRat]

The RN are currently robbing the RM of manpower, over 250 now, resulting in the downgrading of 42 Commando.

 

This means 3 Cdo Brigade, with only 2 Opertional Commando units (40 and 45) is really no longer a Brigade as such, and would now struggle if we had to do another Falklands type scenario........

 

Which is one of the reasons we went for the carriers!

 

As I understand it now, they will only carry 12 F35's, as that's all we can afford.

 

If that's the case the could have been built a lot smaller and cheaper.......but with more admirals than ships, it was obviously someone's vanity project somewhere along the line.....

[TomE]

As I understand it now, they will only carry 12 F35's, as that's all we can afford.

The plan is for 138, of which we have 10 now delivered & in testing in the US and another 40 odd confirmed as ordered & in production. The figure of 12 is the expected number which will routinely be deployed onboard the carriers, with this number being increased as required.

 

Interestingly, I understand the the unit cost of the F35B is now lower than that of Tyhoon when you take into account R&D costs of the latter.

 

Tom.

Edited July 8, 2017 by TomE

[jjb1970]

The QEC program was analysed to death right through its development, I've never seen a ship design subject to such in-depth analysis. From the outset questions of size, configuration, various possible concepts of operation, power and propulsion options and lots more were subject to detailed studies. A lot of that focused on cost vs. capability and in particular for once the mandarins of Whitehall seem to have been persuaded that the costs of a bigger hull provide options through life that you just wouldn't have with a smaller hull for a relatively modest cost uplift (the cost modelling for a smaller CVL similar to the Invincible class showed savings but not as much as most people might expect). I read a lot of comments around the Internet and in the media basically accusing those who designed these ships or who decided on the ConOps and specifications of being idiots for not thinking of this or that, why-oh-why did they do that, what sort of idiot dreamt that up etc etc. The reality is I've yet to see any of these criticisms to which I couldn't point to a whole host of studies which decided that the pet hobby horse of somebody on the Internet was a complete non-starter. Do I agree with all of the compromises made and design assumptions for these ships? No, but I do respect the knowledge and judgement of those who had to deliver this program and live within the budgets and political boundaries defined for them. A lot of mistakes were made on the way but for all that these are genuinely impressive ships and something the UK should be proud of.

[brack]

Saw HMS Ocean today, a bit of a surprise as we went to the national glass centre. A shame she's on the way out but I understand this is due to her essentially being built on the cheap in order to undercut swan hunter's bid. QE may have been delayed unnecessarily by politicians but at least she's been built properly and hopefully her hull and systems are such that she will last more than 20 years.

[jjb1970]

Is it a sign of getting old that I still remember the controversey over the two bids for HMS Ocean and Swann Hunter's claims of being royally done over by VSEL like it was yesterday?

[brack]

As I recall it basically boiled down to swan hunter offering to build a warship and vsel saying they could build a ferry with a flat top and painted grey for £60 million less (and fiddling their bid so it'd be lower on paper).

[jjb1970]

As I recall it basically boiled down to swan hunter offering to build a warship and vsel saying they could build a ferry with a flat top and painted grey for £60 million less (and fiddling their bid so it'd be lower on paper).

 

It wasn't quite that simple. VSEL contracted the hull out to Kvaerner in Glasgow who built it largely to commercial standards but with naval construction requirements overlaid. At the time it was presented as putting a flat top on a Ro-Ro ferry but that was a gross misrepresentation. That did allow VSEL to undercut Swann Hunter massively, not helped by some financially sharp practices from VSEL. That said even without the sharp practices they would still have undercut Swann Hunter massively. Was it right? Difficult to answer, Swann Hunter probably would have delivered a better ship, but it is also true that the Ocean has been a good ship and the RN got a bit of a bargain, if the ship as built did the job well and fulfilled its intended purpose to the required level then you could argue that it'd have been silly to spend more.

HMS Ocean did have quite a troubled early period, she was the first ship built to the LR naval ship rules (often misrepresented as having been built to LR merchant ship rules) and that was "a learning experience" to use the normal euphemism.......

[jjb1970]

For those with an interest in warships and who have wondered at the oft made allegation that modern warships are built to merchant ship standards, the paper in this link may be of interest:

 

http://www.sname.org/HigherLogic/System/DownloadDocumentFile.ashx?DocumentFileKey=8e28ed60-65d6-4048-b9ec-32d78ba9774f

 

Although it's a few years old it is still a good introduction to the concept of naval class rules.

[pete_mcfarlane]

I think some of this comes from people getting the two helicopter carriers confused, and blurring RFA Argus (which was built as a container ship to Merchant ship standards) with HMS Ocean.

 

I've seen this in a national newspaper from their defence columnist, who claimed that Ocean was a converted merchant ship, thus ensuring that everything else I read from him is regarded as a bit suspect. 

[Ohmisterporter]

This article from Save the Royal Navy. blog suggests that only six of our nineteen frigates and destroyers are at sea or otherwise available for service. The manpower shortage is worrying as usual.

 

http://www.savetheroyalnavy.org/ongoing-manpower-issues-revealed-by-status-of-royal-navy-surface-escorts/

[brack]

Ocean has had trouble with the davits being designed for dumping a lifeboat on the odd occasion and therefore not working when expected to drop several parties of commandoes off in a day in Sierra Leone. The ships sewage systems filled up with excrement due to clever (uphill?) plumbing for the heads. The transmission has no reversing gear so you have to stop the engines to go backwards, theres only a bow thruster which isn't good enough to hold its position. The fire suppression system took about a decade to get working and it was not built strong enough to withstand much damage in a 'real' war where people fire back at it. There are other issues too but essentially a cheap ship built down to a price. Some of the problems are due to using commercial rules and products which aren't durable enough for warships, but some of the issues were down to bad design. It's done its job well considering the limitations, but had the contract gone to swan hunter she'd have been operable into the 2030s, more reliable and probably have been more resilient to damage in an actual war. Given the cost difference was about £60 million, which is about the same as her last refit 4 years ago cost and she's now being decommissioned, it seems fair to argue that the VSEL price mightn't have been a bargain in the long run. As it happens, her primary uses have been anti drug/anti piracy work or sitting offshore launching strikes against enemies without any naval or air capability. I would've thought most of the crew would've been a bit nervous in a Falklands type situation compared to a properly designed and built warship (which would also cause trouble given the problems with the plumbing).

[brack]

This article from Save the Royal Navy. blog suggests that only six of our nineteen frigates and destroyers are at sea or otherwise available for service. The manpower shortage is worrying as usual.

 

http://www.savetheroyalnavy.org/ongoing-manpower-issues-revealed-by-status-of-royal-navy-surface-escorts/

Who'd have thought that nigh on a decade of real terms pay cuts (or below inflation pay rises) might lead to retention and morale problems? The best qualified, most experienced being the most readily employed elsewhere should they decide to look about.

Funnily enough MPs pay has risen by nearly 16% since 2010 (over double the 1% cap), presumably they don't work in the public sector?

Relevant to the discussion as the other side of the coin with ocean is that she has quite a large crew who can be redeployed elsewhere (as mentioned in the article) or moved off the payroll.

[pete_mcfarlane]

This article from Save the Royal Navy. blog suggests that only six of our nineteen frigates and destroyers are at sea or otherwise available for service. The manpower shortage is worrying as usual.

 

http://www.savetheroyalnavy.org/ongoing-manpower-issues-revealed-by-status-of-royal-navy-surface-escorts/

How many of the 19 would normally be available though? 

[brack]

How many of the 19 would normally be available though?

And how many can be available tomorrow/next week etc. If it all kicks off? If there's nowt else for them to be doing then parking them up to hoover the ship out and touch up the paint makes sense.

[The Stationmaster]

Who'd have thought that nigh on a decade of real terms pay cuts (or below inflation pay rises) might lead to retention and morale problems? The best qualified, most experienced being the most readily employed elsewhere should they decide to look about.

Funnily enough MPs pay has risen by nearly 16% since 2010 (over double the 1% cap), presumably they don't work in the public sector?

Relevant to the discussion as the other side of the coin with ocean is that she has quite a large crew who can be redeployed elsewhere (as mentioned in the article) or moved off the payroll.

 

From what I hear the main morale problems seem to arise from spending too much time in harbour rather than getting to sea plus the new training programme for Leading Hands is reportedly not being well received by junior hands many of whom would sooner get sea time in rather than sitting in a classroom at Devonport (or rather just across the Tamar from Devonport for a couple of years.

[jjb1970]

That HMS Ocean had a troubled start in life is no secret. The MoD did not understand classification, and LR assumed that the MoD understood classification in the way their commercial clients did. That led to some unfortunate failings by both parties and VSEL however the failings were not because the ship was built down to a cost or the use of commercial standards (as I've said several times, she was built to the LR NSR).

The ship was designed around a capability envelope defined by the MoD and following a ConOps, if that was inadequate (and to be honest, it doesn't seem to have been that bad) then again it has nothing to do with VSEL. Swann Hunter would have designed their ship around the same requirements. Things like the shock policy, acoustics etc are defined by the MoD, the LR NSR use these policies along with any specified Def Stans supplied by the MoD. Swann Hunter would have based their proposal on the same shock policy, acoustic requirements, Def Stans etc. Funnily, if she had been a Ro-Ro with a flat top her propulsion system would almost certainly have been more capable as she'd likely have had CPPs and more powerful engines.

On survivability, again the Swann Hunter proposal would have been built around the same V lines and damage control standards as the VSEL proposal. All modern warships depend to a great extent on COTS equipment for the simple reason that even if military customers could afford to pay manufacturers to design and build military specific equipment such as engines, electrical hardware, davits, sewage plants etc (they can't) it is unlikely they'd find manufacturers willing to do it for much of the equipment as it just isn't worth their effort. The transition to COTS marine systems started long before HMS Ocean and is perfectly sensible. Something that naval authorities finally accepted was that companies like Wartsila, MAN, Rolls Royce etc are not really interested in allocating limited design resource to produce designs which are unlikely to be produced far into double figures over many years when the same design resource can be deployed on commercial equipment which will be mass produced and sell by the thousand. Military people tried to cling to the idea that it was worth manufacturers effort because it was more profitable without really thinking that no matter how profitable a military item it is, if you can sell several orders of magnitude more to the commercial sector then that's the way to go.

In terms of reliability, how do you know a Swann Hunter ship would have been more reliable? Being familiar with some Swann Hunter ships I'm not sure that it is a safe assumption to say they'd have built a more reliable ship. She had a £60 million refit, so more than likely would an LPH built by any other builder in RN service at that age, it's normal. Regardless of the merits or demerits of HMS Ocean, she has served her intended life as specified and would have been retired as the QEC program delivered anyway.

[TomE]

Something that naval authorities finally accepted was that companies like Wartsila, MAN, Rolls Royce etc are not really interested in allocating limited design resource to produce designs which are unlikely to be produced far into double figures over many years when the same design resource can be deployed on commercial equipment which will be mass produced and sell by the thousand.

The MT30 gas turbine fitted to the carriers is good example of this. Essentially a Rolls Royce Trent 800, with 80% commonality between the engines on the ship and those under the wings of a Boeing 777, the core design has now clocked up around 28 million hours in operation. The last stats I saw showed a dispatch reliability rate of over 99%, and it is now the market leading engine on the 777. It is proven civilian technology and it makes perfect sense to take advantage of that if it meets the requirements of the design.

 

In contrast, the WR-21 fitted to the Type 45 was a much more bespoke design, and although the core of the engine draws heavily from the Trent, many of the ancillary components & systems are clean sheet designs. I think we're all aware of the problems being experienced with that whole system, but it shows that spending a lot of money on a purpose built unit is no guarantee of reliability, something I would expect is a highly desirable trait on a military vessel!

 

Tom.

Edited July 11, 2017 by TomE

[peach james]

This article from Save the Royal Navy. blog suggests that only six of our nineteen frigates and destroyers are at sea or otherwise available for service. The manpower shortage is worrying as usual.

 

http://www.savetheroyalnavy.org/ongoing-manpower-issues-revealed-by-status-of-royal-navy-surface-escorts/

6/19 is fairly good.

 

I am unsure that the RCN could do any better (4/12 being the usual, and at one point we were down to 2/12).  Manpower is always a question, but it comes down to a %.  As the number of hulls has shrunk, then the spare people ashore and on ships which are undergoing refit becomes smaller...we noticed this when we went from 19 to 17 surface ships even...what should have made the manpower shortages on the units at sea better, didn't.  I suspect it has gotten worse, rather than better, since we lost 1200 seagoing billets (PRO, PRE, ALG, IRQ, ATH).  What I suspect has happened is that the overall shortage of trainees in the CF will end up getting transferred into a RCN problem, to a much greater extent than the relative #'s would indicate.  I speak to a recruiter who I know regularly, and he was covering a stupid large area as the only Navy recruiter for quite some time...which was just stupid.  (Northern Ontario- think of an area bigger than France, mind with a population of about 400 000...We used to get LOTS of recruits out of there...he and I both came from NW Ontario, he comes from "to Hell With Hiitler, we were Swastika (Ontario) First", and I came from Elliot Lake)

[jjb1970]

The naval rule of thumb in most countries has been a ratio of 3:1 for ship numbers for many years. At one time it was 4:1 and ship designers and operators have been trying to get it down to 2:1. So the RN number looks almost bang on what you'd expect.

[TomE]

Stolen from Facebook, but it made me chuckle.

 

 

"HMS Queen Elizabeth moored next to the RAF accommodation ship that will accompany her when the RAF F35s are embarked"

 

Tom. 

Edited July 12, 2017 by TomE

[BlackRat]

Britannia rules the waves?

 

 

Maybe once.......

[Legend]

Britannia rules the waves?

IMG_8183.PNG

Maybe once.......

It does appear we rule Portsmouth and Devonport , though .

 

As other have said , the ratio is probably not surprising . What is surprising to me is that two Type 45s are laid up. Is that awaiting propulsion mods. I mean these are relatively new ships

[TomE]

It does appear we rule Portsmouth and Devonport , though .

 

As other have said , the ratio is probably not surprising . What is surprising to me is that two Type 45s are laid up. Is that awaiting propulsion mods. I mean these are relatively new ships

 

AFAIK, only 1 Type 45 has received the "permanent fix" for the power units. From that list above it would seem likely that's either Duncan or Diamond, with Defender currently undergoing the modifications. 

 

Tom.