Looking ahead....

[rockershovel]

I see that various plans are emerging for the year ahead. Risk management seems to be the name of the game. 

 

No 2 Son has bought us tickets for Lions v Japan at Murrayfield. The organisers clearly envisage ongoing restrictions into the middle of the year, since they are banded in eight groups, providing a structure for cancellation and refund. He bought Group #2, ie only one higher group; he reckons that the price step from #1 to #2 suggests that the organisers envisage playing under current restrictions, with #2 to #8 cancelled, but he is prepared to take the risk because tickets are refundable. 

 

I’m being bombarded with travel advertising, from BA in particular. It’s clear that they haven’t embraced the notion of risk management as a marketing incentive... refund as vouchers, with no provision for costs incurred in the event of last-minute cancellation or delayed return? Yeah, right... can’t see that bringing the punters flocking to the door...

 

Email today brings various finance and sales literature from Skoda/VW/Audi. No mention of changes due to Brexit, in literature which clearly wasn’t  written in the past few days, suggesting that VW, at least, foresaw some sort of trade deal to maintain their sales. I didn’t think that was a huge leap of faith, indeed I put £500 on it, back in Jan, which I’ve now been informed will be paid. Interestingly enough the price (which is to say, odds) was quite short, along with the price on some sort of detachment from the political project - which I’ve also now been informed, will be paid.

 

I’ve long considered bookmakers to be much the most reliable indicators of variables of this sort.... I also had £100 on Coronavirus restrictions continuing to increase through the year, and that’s looking like a “banker” right now. Prices for restrictions continuing unabated to the end of the existing powers (Easter) are too short to be worth bothering with, prices for a further extension aren’t much better. 

 

I’d say a sharp drop in £ vs € is on the cards. My (Dutch) employers seem to agree; in the last they’ve often denominated my contracts in € for renewables, or oil and gas projects in regions like the Caspian which are basically founded on selling in Europe, but not now! 

 

Prices for unemployment exceeding 2m throughout the second half of the year aren’t worth backing, which suggests a general end to the furlough scheme in 2Q, although there’s no clearly envisaged scenario as to how. I’ll keep my moneyin my pocket  on that one, I think. 

[StevieD71]

I've bought tickets for the BTCC round at Outlon Park in May. I'm hoping that it goes ahead and that, if there are ticket restrictions the fact that I bought mine early will mean I am guaranteed entry.

[Big James]

My partners birthday is in feb. We’ve made tentative plans with her brother and sister in law to have a game and nibbles night. But we’ve all accepted theirs a very real chance it is not going to happen. This will also be the first time in 10 years that I haven’t gone to centre Parcs for my birthday. We was kicking round the idea of booking it but we decided not to tempt fate. 
 

Big James

[rockershovel]

5 minutes ago, Big James said:

My partners birthday is in feb. We’ve made tentative plans with her brother and sister in law to have a game and nibbles night. But we’ve all accepted theirs a very real chance it is not going to happen. This will also be the first time in 10 years that I haven’t gone to centre Parcs for my birthday. We was kicking round the idea of booking it but we decided not to tempt fate. 
 

Big James

 

I can’t see any credible source predicting that vaccine supplies (not forgetting the requirement for a second dose, a few weeks later) or vaccination programme arrangements, being capable of delivering sufficient immunity by Feb. It was already necessary to involve the army, to implement the short-term, local testing in Liverpool, don’t forget. 

[simontaylor484]

We have made the decision not to look at booking anything before August yet. I hope to get my driving licence back in june surrendered due to a seizure on 12th june this year. With 2 autistic kids its difficult to plan anyway so to avoid disappointment. 

 

[rockershovel]

On 28/12/2020 at 15:57, rockershovel said:

 

I can’t see any credible source predicting that vaccine supplies (not forgetting the requirement for a second dose, a few weeks later) or vaccination programme arrangements, being capable of delivering sufficient immunity by Feb. It was already necessary to involve the army, to implement the short-term, local testing in Liverpool, don’t forget. 

 

I see this one has already come around... 12 weeks, now, to the surprise of .... well, not me for one. 

[rockershovel]

Well, the New Year got off to a flying start. The dustbins, left out for collection on 30th, were eventually emptied on Sat 2nd... apparently the contractor are very short-handed due to the number of workers “self-isolating” over the holiday season.... did a night shift at the Sorting Office on New Years Day, ending in a traffic jam of outbound mail on the Despatch Bay, due to the haulage side working a Sunday service without thinking to inform the Sorting side. Glad I wasn’t coming in to sort out that little lot on Saturday morning... 

 

Dear me, we’ll need to do better than that in the coming months. 

 

Much discussion and expectation on the Sorting floor. The large group of “casuals” seemed generally in favour of the new venture in national arrangements, with little real idea of what might be involved. However the general resentment of the whole notion of casual agency employment was being much aired; it’s clear there is a widespread appetite for change. 

 

Despite the constant bombardment of fear-mongering (particularly on the tv) the general view of the pandemic seems sceptical, to say the least. I offer this simply as an observation. The plain fact is that some months into the whole matter, a high proportion of people have had no contact (direct or otherwise) with the disease, see the increasing economic devastation around them - everyone has some story of unemployment or closure affecting themselves, or someone they know - and have had enough. 

 

Stories of students abandoning their campus accommodation, mostly by returning home for Xmas and staying there, seem to be circulating with increasing frequency. 

 

One way and another, I get an increasing feeling that some sort of general application of the Law of Unintended Consequences is approaching...

 

[rockershovel]

On 28/12/2020 at 15:57, rockershovel said:

 

I can’t see any credible source predicting that vaccine supplies (not forgetting the requirement for a second dose, a few weeks later) or vaccination programme arrangements, being capable of delivering sufficient immunity by Feb. It was already necessary to involve the army, to implement the short-term, local testing in Liverpool, don’t forget. 

 

.... well, this one wasn’t far wrong, as it turns out. I see there is another inoculation being introduced, again somewhat different from the others, which probably isn’t a bad thing.. gives a wider spread of effect. 

 

I do find that some my clubs are stirring, mostly outdoor sports (motorcycle racing). There are so many unknowns, it’s a leap of faith to a considerable extent, but it’s probably better to do something than nothing. 

 

Work is definitely on the move, although the revival of civil engineering has brought the long-running IR35 crisis back to front-and-centre. I don’t really care, I’m retired from that now, I’m just doing the directional drilling plus any oil and gas work which might appear. The trend back to direct employment is definitely increasing, although whether that is a good thing, remains to be seen; an increased level of agency PAYE status, leaving employees with increased tax but few, if any meaningful employment rights won’t be popular, and contributes to the general training and skills crisis, as well as sustaining the adversarial attitudes so prevalent in this country. 

 

Oh well, press on. 

[rockershovel]

Moving along, I see increasing signs of a reversion to an older structure in the construction industry, with European contractors re-establishing their U.K. facilities rather than just trucking everything through the Channel Tunnel. The work-permit system seems to be almost 100% dysfunctional (in both directions) and I wouldn’t be much surprised to find site personnel on my present job, largely British; there might be “right of residence” printed by hundreds of thousands, but the tax and work permit structure is far less clear. There is also the matter of the £/€ exchange rate, which is going the wrong way to encourage EU nationals to be paid, or at any rate denominated in sterling. 

 

The construction industry also employs large numbers of personnel using the provision that students can remain for a period after graduating, I think two years? That tap is also closing, at least for the moment. 

 

It will be interesting to see what happens at HS2. Last time I saw a similar situation, a strong employment demand in the new industries of the North Sea against a background of rapidly declining older industries and consequent unemployment, a lot of people found themselves making fairly radical employment choices, with varying results 

Edited February 18, 2021 by rockershovel

[rockershovel]

It’s becoming increasingly difficult to get cash, I find. A lot of the local ATM have simply stopped operating, or at any rate are no longer being refilled, or display “service will be resumed” messages. The local chip shop tell me that they no longer “cash up” daily, partly due to the difficulty of depositing cash - there are no remaining night safes operating locally, and the banks are open for 3 hours around lunchtime, when they are open at all. 

 

I can’t see that changing. The banks were already on a programme of substantially curtailing high street services, closing branches and shedding staff, and they will simply continue. 

 

 

I’ve had some enquiries regarding the sort of short, short-notice contract jobs I’d intended to keep involved with as I semi-retire. Hard to see how these would work. There’s a typical one on the pinboard right now, a few days’ work in the Southern North Sea, mobilising from Norway. The job is simple enough but depending on exemptions and quarantine arrangements, which no one seems clear or consistent about, the dates might be unworkable. There also the small matter of the risk of being unable to return for an indeterminate period, which no one is addressing, leaving it in the hands of the contractor. Yeah, right..... there are a collection of exemptions, variously referring to “seamen”, “masters and surveyors” and “downstream oil workers” but they aren’t consistent, don’t refer to wind farm construction or maintenance, and leave gaps by which the returning worker must negotiate airports unsupported. Not good. 

 

 

The bookmakers seem to envisage social distancing and arbitrary local lockdowns continuing throughout the year, with a major lockdown by December, judging by the prices on offer. Shan’t be placing any money there, then..

 

 

Edited February 26, 2021 by rockershovel