ruggedpeak

4 hours ago, JohnR said:

A good point was made earlier about Frasers stores stocking TT120. We've often moaned about the lack of visibility of model railways in the wider retail market, and perhaps this is something that Frasers can assist with - stocking Hornby product, making it visible to the buying public - and what better thing to do that the scale were Hornby are (effectively) the only suppliers?

I agree, making a much better fist of making elements of all the Hornby ranges (whether TT120, Railroad, Corgi, Airfix etc) more mass market and high street/online retail friendly is probably the key and that is what Frasers can help with. Back to those instantly recognisable brands..........properly leveraged and deployed that is where the profits are.

33 minutes ago, Stevebr said:

 they want to play on the big railway or not.  

they are playing on the railway, that is the problem.

57 minutes ago, 1andrew1 said:

Showing today as 1%. It's interesting to see the stakes Frasers holds in other companies. It doesn't always acquire full ownership.

• ASOS 20.00%  
• Boohoo 22.08% 
• Castelnau 1.59%         
• Currys  6.59%    
• Hornby 8.94%    
• Hugo Boss 0.99%    
• Mulberry 36.82%    
• N Brown 20.02%  
• Northern Bear 0.43% 

https://uk.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FRASERS-GROUP-PLC-9590226/company/

Nice. If you can plant a director on the board and/or look at the detail ofthe business then that may be enough. I see they have a small stake in Castelnau, all interlinked one way or another....

20 minutes ago, JohnR said:

Lets not run away with ourselves here. Mike Ashley can only asset strip or sell off brands if he gets control of Hornby. He currently has less than 9%, and can only get control if the largest shareholder, Phoenix, wants to sell to him. Which really doesnt seem to be what they want, nor is it their usual way of doing business. 

Hornby is majority owned by Castelnau Group, a closed fund set up by Phoenix. Phoenix are asset managers who are in the business of making money. They acquired the bulk of Hornby around 2017/2018 and put in new management who were from FMCG backgrounds. We all know what happened next.......We are now on the 3rd(?) attempt at getting the business back on a sound financial footing since then. They have not exactly been coining it since acquiring Hornby.

Castlenau state that they seek businesses that have:

"A demonstrable track record of high and enduring returns on capital employed. Our definition of “high” is an unlevered average of 15% after tax over a full economic cycle.
 

An “economic moat” surrounding the business to protect those returns on capital and ensure they stay high."

https://www.castelnaugroup.com/what-we-do

Neither of those apply to Hornby.

The Castelnau share price has fallen substantially since it was launched and is languishing well below its start price. The bulk of the fund is in the "end of life" business, Dignity. If the big fella wants Hornby and offers a decent price what reason would a fund manager have for retaining a business that has little near term prospect of a substantial return if they are offered cash now? The main issue is how to reinvest the money they would get, but with Ashley already sniffing they will be working on options for that. And even if Hornby have a decent turnaround plan this time it is likely that with Frasers they can do it quicker and better as Frasers have the resources and expertise that Castelnau don't.

Also bear in mind that Phoenix did or do (can't get current details of their holdings) have around 7% of Fraser shares in its portfolio (from when it was Sports Direct). So there is existing linkage between the companies.

So whilst I agree that we don't know if anything will happen, should Frasers want Hornby I suspect it will just be mostly a formality. Frasers add to their retail and IP portfolio and Castelnau/Phoenix get some sort of return on the Hornby investment.

47 minutes ago, Reorte said:

Harry Potter is no doubt a very useful tool for bringing in business, they don't need to risk treading on any legal toes to make use of that perception of it (although you could certainly argue that their headbutting with the ORR shows that they're happy enough to do that even when they're on a hiding to nothing). Probably helps that the train's been running since before Harry Potter made it more popular.

They will only take on those they think they can beat, even if their attempts are weak and appear to be self-defeating.

Warner Bros are a global media empire who can unleash the legal hounds of hell onto a tiddler company like WCRC and crush them without batting an eyelid. ORR as a public body can't do the same.

One assumes that WCRC can't really launch any more litigation against ORR at the moment as that would likely mean the exemption process would be put on hold. The funny thing is, with ORR saying it takes about 3 months, and the WCRC being a demonstrably litigious applicant with form for not providing all of the information requested, ORR have good reason to proceed far more carefully than normal, which will probably mean it takes a lot longer than 3 months. That assumes WCRC have submitted a complete application with all the required information.

37 minutes ago, Legend said:

Not so sure it’s low margin Tony, or low growth come to that. While Hornbys share of market  probably hasn’t grown much if at all , there are lots of other companies that have entered the market .  Agreed that compared to his other commodities , sportswear etc , this is small beer . I really do wonder why he is dabbling with this , unless it’s to get into the actual profitability of the various segments , split them up and sell off . Might be a vehicle for Phoenix to get out of ownership of the overall group , by realising value splitting them up . 

 

 

I don't disagree on the growth in the short term but I question the longevity of that growth given underlying demographics and the economic situation. The likes of Accura are wise to sell to order.

The margins are low in comparison to clothing and other high street products. If the margins were competitive and the growth was there the supermarket chains and other high street retailers would be stocking Hornby et al - they will parasitise anything they can make money on at scale.

I agree that Phoenix may be hopeful of an exit since I can't see much reason for them to hang onto Hornby as it does not generate cash or capital growth, indeed I suspect their plan has been the hope that someone would buy Hornby for its IP and brands as part of a toy sector consolidation or similar.

44 minutes ago, Legend said:

And that is all very good and necessary .  They need someone to look at the business . I think its costs are still out of line with turnover , they need to get inventories down and they need systems in place that are easy to use for customers to place orders, track them and are fast and nimble , especially as they are now up against some really good opposition. So they do need the basics in place . But I do still believe for Hornby to be successful it needs someone that’s steeped in trains , for Airfix.  Model aircraft etc - otherwise they end up investing in lemons . 

Yes, but the key point here is that the actual model train business is likely to be of zero interest to Frasers, it is low growth, low margin, low volume. Unless there is some radical shift in Frasers' strategy away from a multi-billion pound turnover high street and online businesses to doing niches, Frasers' only interest in Hornby is its brands and IP. Frasers are not in the business of running small cap niche firms better.

I think it unlikely, but they could go with something like 1andrew1's suggestion of a national rollout of Wonderworks and do something like Simon George with Heaton Lodge and his retail business, but on a much bigger scale, driven by Hornby plc IP.

At the obvious risk of being completely wrong, I see no reason for Frasers to have any reason to continue with what most of us would recognise as model trains if they took over Hornby. Probably just some toy trains masquerading as models to preserve the core brand identity. Modern fashion/clothing retail is a fast paced business, high volumes, hugely variable margins, with clothing be able to be designed and on the shelves within days despite coming from overseas. The sports goods are generic manufacture and just branded. Sports Direct is not a Nike turning out cutting edge sports apparel, it is putting known brands on generic stuff. Model trains taking months to design and even longer to get into production and then hit the shelves does not fit that model as far as I can see, especially if the financial returns are not competitive. 

But we shall see!!

10 hours ago, woodenhead said:

All those American tourists can still visit the viaduct, just on a 156 or by coach.

 

I am sure some enterprising people can figure out alternatives before the summer influx of tourists.

 

And of course there are other trains available with CDL.

Agree. There seems to be a lack of imagination going on here. Whilst I get the Harry Potter steam engine thing, I have little doubt that an internal and external relivery of a 156 or 153 into a Harry Potter design would be a huge hit in itself.

I may be very mistaken here, but I don't think that WCRC have any agreement with Warner Bros over Harry Potter IP. All oftheir blurb is very careful not to say it is licenced or anything to do with Harry Potter, it just says it crosses the bridge used in the films and follows the route, which is factually true and not a breach of Potter IP. The Jacobite is a steam train that happens to look like the Harry Potter one but is not licenced as such. There is no reference to licencing with Warners anywhere I can find on WCRC's website - it would be referenced all over the place if licencing was in place.*

Thus Warner Bros have no direct interest in the Jacobite (but would like any adverse publicity to go away I suspect) but they could licence Scotrail to do the Potter equivalent of the SBB Chocolat Express, which I think would be a huge hit.

And it is presumably be within the rights of NR/Scotrail to say to WCRC you can't come on the route any more as it will just be a contractual matter. I doubt NR failed to give themselves an exit clause.

*happy to be proven wrong!

2 minutes ago, Oldddudders said:

It is an ongoing source of bafflement to me that anyone would pay serious wonga to ride anywhere in a chraracterless Mk1 at National Network speeds in 2024. 25 mph on an impecunious preserved line is one thing, this is another. Obviously WCRC know their business, or perhaps don't. 

But you know what a Mk1 is, an old outdated and unsafe by modern standards railway coach. And whatever you may or may not know about Harry Potter, it probably does not get you sufficiently excited to pay for a trip on the Jacobite!

For the thousands of punters on the Jacobite it is living the dream of being part of the fantasy world that is Harry Potter. They have no idea about the coach or its safety etc as they are buying the experience.

For WCRC that Mk1 is not a railway coach, it is device that can be put into a specific geographical location and linked to some IP that causes it to be filled with paying customers who make a nice profit for the company. That is the business.

WCRC know the "business". Whether they know railway safety is another matter.

1 hour ago, teletougos said:

 

 

The question remains.

 

TT has shown pretty amazing early growth.  As predicted it found an obvious niche with folk wanting something more like OO, less like N, in smaller dwellings. Those people fed back that this was its appeal for them. So that guess was right. It's a growing part of the market.

 

But it will be a long time before it returns a profit. 

 

It'd be useful to know what he's done before when confronted with a production range with those characteristics, in a company he's bought.

 

Slow and steady growth with lots of production slot headaches on the way, doesn't sound appealing for someone with his approach or temperament.

Their business model is to acquire undervalued/underperforming companies or those that are in administration that fit with the wider group business. Hence lots of clothing and retail brands. They will essentially strip out the underperforming parts and sweat the valuable bits. This is often the brand and IP, as the day to day of selling clothes etc is the bit that is not profitable. So they take the brand and IP, get rid of those bits that aren't efficient/profitable and integrate it with existing operations and Fraser expertise in manufacturing, marketing, logistics, sales etc.

They are not afraid to take a punt and have lost money on occasions, they accept that as the nature of an aggressive approach. If you are a business person used to the high volumes and potential profits of high street fashion retail etc then would you see TT:120 or indeed model trains as a high profit or growth opportunity? No. But you would see a cheap, essentially unprofitable company with larges amounts of valuable IP in well known toy brands (Hornby, Corgi, Airfix etc) as things that could be leveraged by putting them with more generic toy business activities.

Ashley and co, for example, bought their way into a strong position in the outdoor leisure market over a number of years buying the likes of Karrimor, Blacks etc. Karrimor was once a leading UK outdoor equioment manufacturer, and is now basically a brand on generic low cost outdoor kit sold in Sports Direct. Blacks were a failing outdoor retailer but allowed them to consolidate market share in that sector, and they already had expertise in dealing with surplus retail property etc so fitted well into their existing activities.

So if Frasers see Hornby as an opportunity, history suggests that making model trains may nor be part of that future as they are unemotional about the brands, and if they continue with model trains it will be an operation that fits with their existing low cost, high volume, high street focused approach. Basically the sort of trains (and Corgi models and Airfix kits) you'd buy in the model equivalent of Sports Direct. Can't see them wanting to keep the international brands, they will be sold off. Obviously this is informed speculation but the concept of Frasers seeing model trains as a significant business opportunity to invest millions in is almost zero. 

24 minutes ago, BachelorBoy said:

 

When did Hornby last bear fruit financially?

 

It's lost money for years. Profits are rare.

Which is exactly why Ashely and co are taking a stake. They specialise in businesses with a strong brand but weak management who can't turn a meaningful profit from it.

1 hour ago, black and decker boy said:

EDIT: just checked the official guidance for an exemption application and clause 7.3 says ORR have up to 4months from date all necessary information is received to assess and determine an application. WCRC seemingly wanted it done in less than 3 weeks!!!!!

So not "automatic" then? How strange.

51 minutes ago, 1andrew1 said:

Fraser Group's 8.9% Hornby stake is substantial but Hornby is currently well and truly controlled by Phoenix who own a whopping 73.4% of the company.  It could be that Ashley is a bit bored having handed over managing Frasers Group to his son-in-law, and he certainly doesn't need the money!

He takes a small stake, gets in and does "consultancy" to understand the business and its potential in detail, if it looks a nice proposition for Frasers he will make a tasty offer to Phoenix for them to exit. Hornby is then absorbed into Frasers. If it doesn't stack up he will exit at some point but the sums involved are piddly for him.

Don't be shocked if this is all concluded in a matter of weeks with a "sudden" announcement of a takeover or similar. Ashley's team know how to leverage undervalued brands and struggling businesses. It won't be pretty at our end I suspect.

39 minutes ago, phil-b259 said:

 

Given the ORR is a supposedly an independent regulator it cannot be seen to be singling out one entity or taking sides - and believe me thats what WCRs lawyers would love to as the minute there is any hint of bias then it would form grounds for another Judicial review / legal action.

 

Hence the rather dry and procedural nature of the ORRs response - one which doesn't bring up mentions of WCRs past regulation breaking and confines itself to 'WCR didn't apply in time' (which of course neatly side steps any talk of what the outcome of any application for a derogation might be)

Given their performance at the Judicial Review I doubt the ORR are overly worried about WCRC and its lawyers. They can't stop WCRC launching more litigation.

As the short Corsican warry fella said "Never interfere with your enemy when he is making a mistake".

This is how West Coast put the position on their website:

"The vintage carriages that we use on the Jacobite Steam Train trip require a central door locking exemption certificate in order to run on the mainline railway network. In past years this has been automatically granted, however this year that has not been the case and a more detailed application has had to be submitted. "[my bold]

https://westcoastrailways.co.uk/news/important-announcement-the-jacobite

With a statement like that I think it is now only a matter of time until the inevitable demise of WCRC occurs. I sincerely hope it does not involve anyone getting hurt.

Keeping the freight theme, La Velo Postale use rail services for parcel deliveries between cities, Red Star style. Here at Geneva today loading onto the RABDe 500 ICN Rorschach service, something that happens every day.

Hump shunting 2024! Not a great video as the train pulled up ready to start just as I arrived soI  just grabbed the phone, plus directly into the sun.

Different time of day and proper video set up would be great. They hump all sorts, covered wagons, container flats, hoppers etc. Staff all friendly, shunter gave a wave.

Denges is the station next to Lausanne Triage marshalling yard. From the station you have to walk up steps to the road overbridge that sits over the neck between the receiving yard and the sorting yard. The yard uses hump shunting to sort the wagons like Tinsley used to in the UK. The wagons are uncouple and then pushed over the hump to be sent to the appropriate line, passing through retarders. I was fortunate to arrive just as they started a shunt and have added a video in the next post. The yard is big. Note the control tower, and also the line running underneath. There is a complete loop under yard and back out - see map below.

The overpass is the yellow road running north/south, the receiving yard to the east/right and sorting yard to the west/left. Directly next to the hump is a public car park that can be access by stairs from the overpass. Map extract courtesy/copyright of Swiss Topo/Federal Government https://map.geo.admin.ch/?lang=en&topic=ech&bgLayer=ch.swisstopo.pixelkarte-farbe&layers=ch.swisstopo.zeitreihen,ch.bfs.gebaeude_wohnungs_register,ch.bav.haltestellen-oev,ch.swisstopo.swisstlm3d-wanderwege,ch.astra.wanderland-sperrungen_umleitungen&layers_opacity=1,1,1,0.8,0.8&layers_visibility=false,false,false,false,false&layers_timestamp=18641231,,,,

Views of receiving yard:

Re 420 296 brings in a new 960 into the yard...
 

then departs leaving the 960 in the yard. Re 620 064 and 420 285 sit in lines 5 and 4 respectively.

Locos all over the place! Re 420 273 and 240:

Re 420 336

Shunter 923 013

Hump shunt signal. The shunter was uncoupling as the consist was moving, consulting his list and using a long pole.

As can be seen in the video, a long Coop container train came into the receiving yard and then passed the by the hump to take the loop back out the yard directly underneath the hump

Was there about an hour in late afternoon and a lot of movements going on.

The yard is right next to the mainline and the main road up the lake

As I waited for the train home a long tanker train arrived in the receiving yard.

That looks an excellent trip, will check tickets, thanks.

On 18/03/2024 at 20:26, Mol_PMB said:

Super! Many thanks for the update. I’ll get planning a trip. 

Give it a day or two, they've broken the rollbockenmachinen!

As it was sunny today I decided to do some exploring, and also to help Mol's planning. So first to Morge expecting to see the tippler and hopper train. It was there but as above the conversion track was being worked on and so the train was sitting still loaded with spoil from Gland behind the workers, unable to go up the MBC.

Before going to Morges I went to my photo spot at Rolle, just south of the station to await the approx 1450-1500 postal service. Sun is still quite low in the sky and the track orientation is not ideal for the light but a useful spot to see things going past:

Unidentified Re 420, the side numbers were missing and not quite sharp enough to read the front number or data panel. Should be distinctive as I think the number to the right of the Swiss falg on the nose is not common, nor side numbers missing::

And then the post train, and by pure skill on my part I managed to get a Postbus going under the bridge at the same time!!! UPDATE - I passed this train whilst en route to Le Brassus, I suspect it originates at the large La Poste parcels depot at Daillens.

Then onto Morges for the MBC:

Leman Granulats are a quarry company with quarries at Apples and Biere https://www.mbc.ch/marchandises

"The Bière - Apples - Morges railroad contributes to the transfer from road to rail and transports goods such as gravel, wood, agricultural products and military vehicles. Since 2016, our trains have been transporting gravel from the Délices gravel pit in Apples, operated by Léman Granulats SA, to the Ballastière area in Gland, helping to reduce heavy road traffic. Over 235,000 tonnes are transported every year on our network."

Translated with DeepL.com (free version)

The Swiss are quite practical with things, this PW wagon has normal skips on it (rollbocken in the foreground).

Whilst I was walking under the bridge at Rolle the Rescue train passed by which was a tad annoying, but luckily it was coming back through Morges when I was there:

I had to wait a while for the next train but it didn't look like the repairs were going well....!!

From Morges it was onto Denges-Echandens, where things were going to get even better........

On 08/03/2024 at 11:02, Mol_PMB said:

Thanks for the nice photos and it's good to see the current developments in the area.

 

Do you know which of the narrow-gauge railways still carry freight on rollbocken? I think you have already featured the MBC with gravel and military trains. Do they run daily or just occasionally?

 

Is there still any seasonal sugar beet traffic on the narrow gauge?

Have you ventured as far as the Yverdon-Ste_Croix? Last time I went there (over 10 years ago) there was timber traffic on rollbocken.

 

Any news would be welcome, I'm thinking about a visit and would like to see some rollbocken freight on the narrow gauge where it still exists.

 

Cheers,

Mol

 I can advise on the following based upon observations:

1. Nyon station is a regular stabling area for PW trains. Had a lot of wagons, Kirow crane and a tamper there recently, then they left (went south towards Geneva, presumably to La Praille yard before coming back a few hours later heading up the lake, the consist having been reversed with the tamper that was on the rear both times!). Also has beet trains during the season. Can get close t to the line on footpaths north of the station. Will add photos in due course.
    
2. The MBC train featured above with blue tipplers and green hoppers seems to run most if not every day of the working week, it starts at the sidings in Gland before going up to Morges and then up the MBC towards Biere. Spoil leaves Gland in the tipplers and aggregate/ballast comes back in the hopper wagons. hopefully this week I will get to Gland to see what is going on there and then go up to Biere. These videos are from Friday 15/03/2024 as I was on the train stopping at Morges. The MBC train was waiting next to us, then moved up to the exchange sidings north of the station to then presumably be shunted onto the rollbocken. The second video shows how busy things are at Morges with shunters, wagons etc. The advantage of double decker trains, seeing into the wagons!! Didn't stop to watch as I was on my way to Chur to a 2 day train and RhB extravangza including the Bernina Express!
    

3. There is a large marshalling yard north of Morges that I need to get up to to see if there are good vantage points. Always seems busy, and they still do loose shunting.

4. There is a southbound mail train of one loco (Re 4/4) and 3 mail coaches that travels south through Rolle at about 1450 each day, no idea where it starts but would guess it goes to the new Poste siding at Geneva. Need to get photos of it.

Finding a decent spot somewhere between Geneva and Morges on a week day will through up lots of interesting freight trains. There are good photo spots at Nyon, Gland (On a footpath south of the station), Rolle (next to the track) and of course the MBC exchange activity can  be observed at Morges.

The fairness question was answered by a High Court Judge quite clearly. There seem to be a few who still think WCRC are the victims, which suggests they have not read the judgement. That the Judge had to explain in written judgement to WCRC and it's legal team that assertions made in court need the backing of actual evidence is not a good look.

I only hope those who made statements for the court case understand that all of their conduct is grist to the mill for any criminal prosecution if WCRC were to be involved in a serious incident.

Not wishing to get into politics or take my own thread off topic, but the Swiss are looking to restart negotiations with the EU after they were abandoned in 2019. One of the issues on the table is the Swiss maintaining full control of what runs over their rail network.

On flights, during ski season they can be very cheap. I just had a long weekend back in the UK using Jet2 from Gva to Stansted and back for CHF 61 all in. Prices were discounted slightly, presumably due to the lack of snow.

Back to Swiss trains and I'm using up my Coop discounted SBB day passes over the weekend, taking the scenic route to Chur then touring the RhB. Unlimited first class travel CHF 69 per day. Main issue is avalanche risk due to sudden rise in temperatures!

1 minute ago, rob D2 said:

AI……was I the only one to watch “ terminator “ .We re in deep do do ….

All of us of a certain age watched the first film and are now seeing it all come true.....😱

A Member of the National Council in Switzerland made a formal proposal for a London Basel train last year and SBB are looking at it, but it is the same issue that SBB need agreement from all the other rail companies etc.

https://www.iamexpat.ch/lifestyle/lifestyle-news/sbb-planning-new-direct-train-switzerland-london