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51 minutes ago, Mike Storey said:

 

That would be a big mistake. One of the key reasons for HS2 is to solve many capacity problems across the three, main north-south rail routes. This decision (if true) would end up solving only one (give or take Edinburgh too). The extreme capacity limits of MML services would not be solved, except for perhaps one small catchment) and the Harrogate/Shipley/Leeds/Wakefield to London services would still clog up the ECML at and south of Doncaster, and the line between Leeds and Doncaster. The total benefit score would therefore be significantly lowered, as well as making Northern Powerhouse much more expensive east of Manchester, due to stand-alone costs, and prevent expansion of West and South Yorkshire Metro services.

Genuine question, Mike: What are the capacity issues on the MML?  I know there are some two-track stretches South of Leicester, but I've never got the impression that service frequency is THAT high.  There's still the potential to run longer trains, even if adding another powered coach to the Meridians isn't ideal or likely to be simple, they are already the railway's answer to V8 Range Rovers.  Of course it could have just been electrified.......

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This sounds like the usual fishing expedition through the media to see what the reaction is (or, whether the reaction is politically acceptable.

 

But it is all really a game of smoke and mirrors - the "reasoning" behind this is that apparently the government wants to spend the money instead on other improvements on the rail links across the north to reward the newly converted Conservative voters.  But given the segment under threat isn't coming for another 15 years (or say 8 to 10 years before construction starts), there is no money to be saved now anyway.

 

So, perhaps this will be a sleight of hand designed to make many happy - by cancelling part of HS2 that is far in the future the government can claim to "be dealing with the cost increases" and make the anti-HS2 faction semi-happy (only need to make part of the faction happy) - it camouflages part of the increase in spending they want to do if they do it now (we transferred already spent money!) for other rail improvements thus helping to keep budget worriers happy.  And in the meantime, in 5 years or so when HS2 looks better (or a different government) then the cancelled part can be reinstated.

 

And if the public does react negatively to the planned cuts to HS2 then they can simply pretend they never intended it all along.

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So it's OK for Sheffield, Nottingham, Derby, Leiecster to have a slow, diesel, overcrowded MML which is unreliable and badly run by a company [Abellio] which didn't want it when every other region north of London has high speed electrified services?

 

We have already been stuffed by Grayling. HS2 is too late anyway but cancellation of route 2b is not acceptable unless we get total modernization and electrification of the MML which will still leave inadequate capacity at the London end. MR Northmoor is way out of date. I travel the route most days each week.

 

Dava 

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18 minutes ago, Dava said:

So it's OK for Sheffield, Nottingham, Derby, Leiecster to have a slow, diesel, overcrowded MML which is unreliable and badly run by a company [Abellio] which didn't want it when every other region north of London has high speed electrified services?

 

We have already been stuffed by Grayling. HS2 is too late anyway but cancellation of route 2b is not acceptable unless we get total modernization and electrification of the MML which will still leave inadequate capacity at the London end. MR Northmoor is way out of date. I travel the route most days each week.

 

Dava 

 

I don't think most on here would agree that cancelling it is OK.  In fact I suspect most would rather more projects get done as the network as a whole is suffering from lack of spare capacity.

 

But we aren't the government, and if HS2 2b is cancelled then it will be because there was a lack of sufficient outrage to the trail balloon the government has floated.

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7 hours ago, mdvle said:

 

I don't think most on here would agree that cancelling it is OK.  In fact I suspect most would rather more projects get done as the network as a whole is suffering from lack of spare capacity.

 

But we aren't the government, and if HS2 2b is cancelled then it will be because there was a lack of sufficient outrage to the trail balloon the government has floated.

 

Given the present governments recent success in the Midlands and north (election December 2019) I cannot see them just cancelling the HS2 eastern leg. They will need to offer something and that something may well be full electrification of the Midland main line to compensate. I hope I am not being too optimistic !

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Quite often the news hacks report that the HS2 project is "on hold pending review" but in reality construction still carries on.

On BBC Midlands Today we get regular updates and they have never claimed it has stopped and estimate that £10 billion of work has been carried out to date.

 

 

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29 minutes ago, melmerby said:

Quite often the news hacks report that the HS2 project is "on hold pending review" but in reality construction still carries on.

On BBC Midlands Today we get regular updates and they have never claimed it has stopped and estimate that £10 billion of work has been carried out to date.

 

 

 

It might just be the current standard of BBC research, journalism and reporting, but I’d struggle to see ‘£10 billion pound of work has been carried out to date’.

 

I’d wager what they actually mean is that £10 billion worth of contracts have been agreed to date with work underway. 

 

 

Edited by 4630
To correct a typo.
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1 hour ago, 4630 said:

 

It might just be the current standard of BBC research, journalism and reporting, but I’d struggle to see ‘£10 billion pound of work has been carried out to date’.

 

I’d wager what they actually mean is that £10 billion worth of contracts have been agreed to date with work underway. 

 

 

Probably the amount spent to date including all that land they have bought.

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2 minutes ago, jamie92208 said:

With land purchases, work carried out and contracts for long lead items such as TBM's i can see £10b being quite an accurate figure.

 

Jamie

 

Especially given the amount spent buying just one house (John Bishop's mansion).

 

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46 minutes ago, caradoc said:

 

Especially given the amount spent buying just one house (John Bishop's mansion).

 

Personally I would have moved him to a 2 bed end of terrace and given no compensation.:jester:

 

 

Edited by melmerby
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55 minutes ago, melmerby said:

Personally I would have moved him to a 2 bed end of terrace and given no compensation.:jester:


Indeed, but purely on the basis that he is not, nor ever has been funny.

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4 hours ago, 4630 said:

 

It might just be the current standard of BBC research, journalism and reporting, but I’d struggle to see ‘£10 billion pound of work has been carried out to date’.

 

I’d wager what they actually mean is that £10 billion worth of contracts have been agreed to date with work underway. 

 

 

I think it equates to £1 million on actual 'work' and £9.9 Billion on design, surveys, consultants etc, you do have to keep your mates and the chummies palms oiled with £s you know!

 

Please note this isnt a serious post, I appreciate all the enabling work costs involved and £10 billion doesnt go very far these days in railway construction.

Edited by royaloak
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1 hour ago, royaloak said:

I think it equates to £1 million on actual 'work' and £9.9 Billion on design, surveys, consultants etc, you do have to keep your mates and the chummies palms oiled with £s you know!

 

Please note this isnt a serious post, I appreciate all the enabling work costs involved and £10 billion doesnt go very far these days in railway construction.

Taken in the way it was intended, but there is a serious point here that outside the UK, they do tend to get on with things with less fuss (although I'd rather not live with what the Chinese call "consultation"!).  In the UK we like to commission endless feasibility studies (at consultants' rates) to come up with reasons why either they can't be done, or to delay having to make an unpopular NO decision.  I wish our politicians were a little braver with the uninformed public; telling people that propose spending £700m on re-openings like Carmarthen - Aberystwyth, that spending even £100k on a paper study is a stupid waste of taxpayers money and if they think its such a good idea they should raise the money for an independent study or perhaps the entire re-opening, themselves.

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I agree 100%, we spend far too much money and time trying to please everyone all of the time and unfortunately that just isnt possible.

 

I remember when the East Lancs railway were having their public meetings about their takeover of the railway and one individual took great pride in telling them he would tie them up in red tape for years, they then informed him that as the railway was never actually closed they didnt actually have to do anything but wanted to get off on the right foot with their neighbours but they were more than happy for him to try. its that sort of attitude which is needed.

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21 hours ago, Northmoor said:

Genuine question, Mike: What are the capacity issues on the MML?  I know there are some two-track stretches South of Leicester, but I've never got the impression that service frequency is THAT high.  There's still the potential to run longer trains, even if adding another powered coach to the Meridians isn't ideal or likely to be simple, they are already the railway's answer to V8 Range Rovers.  Of course it could have just been electrified.......

 

Electrification won't solve much when there are only four platforms available at St Pancras for MML services - ECML, serving a similar collection of cities, bar the Scottish route, has eight at its disposal. There are also issues surrounding the reliability and regularity of Thameslink services south of Bedford, as well as huge capacity constraints in the West Midlands to East Midlands/South Yorkshire corridor (preventing just as much regional development as Trans-Pennine), which Phase 2b east would largely solve.

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4 hours ago, Northmoor said:

 is a serious point here that outside the UK, they do tend to get on with things with less fuss (although I'd rather not live with what the Chinese call "consultation"!). 

 

I suspect this is a bit of "the grass is always greener on the other side of the fence" though.

 

If one looks at what goes on elsewhere there is likely a lot of the same studies, delays, lack of government funding, etc. etc. but because we aren't living it we just assume that it isn't happening because we only see the projects that do proceed (and then often haven't gotten the play by play problems that plagued those projects during construction).

 

If one looks back somewhere in the last couple of weeks, someone (Mike Storey?) posted a bunch of things that have run into problems outside the UK.

 

Edited by mdvle
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@Northmoor @mdvle 

 

eg https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-48527308 German efficiency?  The notorious Berlin Airport. In contrast Heathrow has done a pretty good job in delivering big projects.

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/magazine/2015/12/29/years-later-did-big-dig-deliver/tSb8PIMS4QJUETsMpA7SpI/story.html  Boston big dig always worth a look

 

Not just a Uk phenomenon.  These major major projects are complex.  Even those that appear to go well may not necessarily either undertake things to the same exacting standards as the Uk and may not choose to report accurately.  Are we really making apples for apples comparisons? I doubt it.
 

David

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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In the US there is considerable  pressure to reduce the scope and compkexity of environmental  impact statements.  4 yrs and $100 million has been quoted for part of the California  High Speed Rail project.

 

Jamie

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