Hornby's financial updates to the Stock Market

[blueeighties]

On what basis are you making that assertion? It seems to be the general understanding that it's impractical for anyone outside the business itself to be sure about this, since the published financial information doesn't specify it down to this level of brand segmentation; and although Hornby themselves will (should!!) certainly know, the information remains within Management Accounts that are produced 'for internal use only'.

The fact Trains 4u is a retailer might have something to do with it.

Edited February 11, 2016 by blueeighties

[DJM Dave]

As its a public company, do they now have to make a further announcement based on share prices these last few days or can they just keep their heads down?

[dibber25]

...but is it really that vital Chris?

Sad it might be, if Hornby is lost, or disappears in its current form to re-emerge in a new incarnation at some point, why would the hobby not carry on?

There's always the possibility that those filling the vacuum left, could reinvigorate the market.

 

 

.

Yes, I think it is pretty vital. The hobby will carry on in the short term, no doubt, but without Hornby's volume of new product the hobby would be the poorer and accordingly less attractive as a hobby. I don't believe, in the longer term, there will be a market to re-invigorate. We, the baby-boomers, are keeping the hobby viable for manufacturers at present. There's a lot of us and many are in a position to spend spare cash on our hobby but we're coming to the end of our time. We're already seeing vast amounts of secondhand executor sale models with fewer and fewer buyers because today's younger modellers are fewer in number and want modern models not our 30+ years old stuff. Secondhand railway books are, according to what I hear, nothing more than paper for recycling, these days. If Hornby were to go - and remember there are other big-names within the Hornby brand (Rivarossi, Jouef equally revered in their own countries) we'll all be the poorer and I can't really see it re-emerging. I certainly can't see any of today's 'new' manufacturers wanting to fill any vacuum that might be left. New products in this hobby are becoming incredibly expensive to develop, returns on that huge investment are (to quote one manufacturer I spoke to recently) 'wafer thin', and unless (like Bachmann) you have your own Chinese manufacturing facility, you're at the mercy of an industrial system which in every sense is unlike anything we're used to. If you think of the problems Hornby had, how much more difficult is it going to be for smaller outfits to get product to fill that vacuum? (CJL)

[Edge]

Also, factor in the fact that there are fewer and fewer 'bricks and mortar' places left for them to ship their stuff to.

 

Personally, i feel that mistakes have been made concerning the stock which has been sent out to those few outlets which still stock it on the high street: the vast majority of the people are not going to be interested ina  generic freelance 0-4-0 with gearing which makes it look like its going to break the land speed record. Most people who want to buy Hornby off shelf and have the money to do so will want models, and not toys. Yes, there is a balance to be struck between the two, but in my experience at the moment there isnt much of a balance at all.

 

For instance, I went to a birmingham tourist attraction which has a 'well stocked model shop'. In there I found one Hornby train set with the generic 0-4-0 and a number of railroad wagons. Even in the other shelves, £80 was being charged for three MK1 coaches from the company's previous vintage. Virtually none of the newer items in the range were there. Big missed oppourtunity in my opinion

[Andy Y]

For instance, I went to a birmingham tourist attraction which has a 'well stocked model shop'. In there I found one Hornby train set with the generic 0-4-0 and a number of railroad wagons. Even in the other shelves, £80 was being charged for three MK1 coaches from the company's previous vintage. Virtually none of the newer items in the range were there. Big missed oppourtunity in my opinion

 

The expansion of 'concessions' has also left me scratching my head sometimes. There can be fantastic ones such as Locomotion that have enthusiastic and knowledgeable staff on hand but I've seen too many poorly merchandised shelves with Hornby group products in high street retailers, garden centres, mill shops and the such like whose staff wouldn't have any depth of product knowledge. I wonder how well the stock turns over; they may have the footfall but are they actually buyers? I'd say there's a higher likelihood of the right buyers walking into an edge of/out of town model shop.

 

Hornby have done a lot of good marketing activity but all their direct mailings and some recent mag advertising has been all about securing a direct sale rather than supporting the brand's wider sales channels.

[Dunsignalling]

It's justifying it to yourself, a "value judgement or a choice of priorities"

I still don't see any logic in someone being content to do without one of something because of the price but willing to spend 50% more to obtain two of them.

 

John

[Legend]

Hornby by Bachmann. A few years ago I thought this would be a good idea. But not since Mr Ting from Kader visited 2 years ago and prices shot up since.  I really hope this is not an outcome.  For a start you wouldn't need separate design teams in Barwell and Sandwich , so not good for Hornbys employees.

 

What is needed is a period of tight financial control, review of systems to make sure they are robust. Re enguage with retailer. Maybe some contraction is necessary to concentrate on profitable lines , take out the deadwood. In terms of models I'm not sure the 71 will be a best seller, and I wonder about how much of the stock not moving are Pullmans, but they are doing things right with Colletts, Kings , J15s etc

 

Might need a change in management to renew faith with banks and shareholders.

[Andy Y]

But not since Mr Ting from Kader visited 2 years ago and prices shot up since. 

 

He visited for the 25th anniversary event for Bachmann Europe, as far as I saw he didn't bring a price ticket gun with him. 

[coachmann]

I still don't see any logic in someone being content to do without one of something because of the price but willing to spend 50% more to obtain two of them.

 

John

Must be the Tesco factor....

[APOLLO]

BOGOF !!

 

Brit15

[Guest]

I still don't see any logic in someone being content to do without one of something because of the price but willing to spend 50% more to obtain two of them.

If it's poor value you don't buy it. If it's acceptable value you buy as many as you require.

Seems simple enough to me.

And also off topic.

[Dunsignalling]

Hornby by Bachmann. A few years ago I thought this would be a good idea. But not since Mr Ting from Kader visited 2 years ago and prices shot up since.  I really hope this is not an outcome.  For a start you wouldn't need separate design teams in Barwell and Sandwich , so not good for Hornbys employees.

 

What is needed is a period of tight financial control, review of systems to make sure they are robust. Re enguage with retailer. Maybe some contraction is necessary to concentrate on profitable lines , take out the deadwood. In terms of models I'm not sure the 71 will be a best seller, and I wonder about how much of the stock not moving are Pullmans, but they are doing things right with Colletts, Kings , J15s etc

 

Might need a change in management to renew faith with banks and shareholders.

I think some kind of change of ownership (rather than just management) is likely sometime this year but it certainly won't involve Bachmann.

 

Their price hikes happened because model trains hadn't been generating enough profit to satisfy their parent group, which is unlikely to want to buy into more of the same.

 

It's easy enough to work out what Hornby stock hasn't been moving, they dump it in their sales. If they aren't flogging it off cheap, it is obviously selling OK at or near list price. 

 

John

[Train wasp]

I wonder if Hornby will now put the brakes on with new loco being released until they over comes their finance issues.

[Ozexpatriate]

It's nice to see a lot of cogent points today.
 
The stock price is mostly immaterial. The real question is one of whether Hornby can secure funding to remain in business.
 

As its a public company, do they now have to make a further announcement based on share prices these last few days or can they just keep their heads down?

My instinct is that they can just keep their heads down, but I'm no expert on the financial regulation of British companies. They fulfilled their public trust obligations to warn that their earlier guidance became inaccurate. I don't think they have to say anything further until they publish their annual report unless something else changes - like they cease to be a going concern.
 
What hurts them particularly with the drop in the stock price was that they raised a lot of capital when relisting the company. This wasn't very long ago. I'd have to go and research the particulars and this thread is moving too fast for that.  Those investors will be out for blood.
 
At the end of the day this sort of thing happens in the model railway industry all the time.  Hornby plc is not the company started by Frank Hornby. How many incarnations has it been through from Hornby/Meccano/Lines Brothers/Rovex/Dunbee-Combex-Marx/Hornby Hobbies etc?
 
I think there is an enormous extra burden on a small company becoming publicly traded. The responsibility to shareholders is different from what a private company is able to do in terms of getting on with the business of making things and a buy-out / acquisition can continue the brand and the present manufacturing operations.

Edited February 11, 2016 by Ozexpatriate

[andyman7]

I wonder if Hornby will now put the brakes on with new loco being released until they over comes their finance issues.

Ideally, they will release items for which there is demand and which will sell. 

[Ozexpatriate]

I wonder if Hornby will now put the brakes on with new loco being released until they over comes their finance issues.

The question right now is whether they will have any money to pay their suppliers.

[Edge]

Well now, this is interesting, it appears that i'm not the proud owner of 400 Hornby shares. Hmm. Wonder if the price is going back up any time soon :S

[Dunsignalling]

If it's poor value you don't buy it. If it's acceptable value you buy as many as you require.

Seems simple enough to me.

And also off topic.

If you are buying something you need (a commodity), yes.

 

But nobody needs a Hornby Peckett and, if I couldn't "justify" spending £80 on one purely discretionary purchase, why on earth would I be willing to blow half as much again to get twice as much of something I don't need? Why not (for instance) spend the £120 on one Peckett and a coach?

 

Not off-topic as the sales/non-sales resulting from this sort of thinking may directly affect the survival or otherwise of the company.

 

John

Edited February 11, 2016 by Dunsignalling

[Ozexpatriate]

Perhaps some will find the following interesting. It is from the current (FY2014/2015) Annual Report.
 

Going concern
As the Group’s bank facilities expire in December 2015 and the current plans for the Group’s reorganisation require additional investment, the Group are proposing to raise £15 million additional equity to enable Management to pursue these investment plans.

The Directors have approached both existing and potential new investors to raise the additional equity funding of £15 million and have also signed a new four-year facility with the Group’s bankers, which is conditional on the £15 million equity raise. After the discussions with existing investors, the Directors have a high degree of confidence that the fundraise will be approved by shareholders and therefore the new working capital facility will become available. However this equity raise is subject to shareholder approval on 13 July 2015.

The Group has prepared three-year cash flow forecasts on the basis of the additional equity raise and new facility and after detailed review of these forecasts and cash flow models with external advisers, the Directors have a reasonable expectation that the Group has adequate resources to continue in operational existence for the foreseeable future. For these reasons, they continue to adopt the going concern basis of accounting in preparing the annual financial statements.

However as the current fundraise has not yet been approved by shareholders there remains a material uncertainty which may cast significant doubt over the Group’s ability to continue as a going concern.

If I recall correctly, the £15 million share offering was approved when Hornby was relisted on the AIM. Those investors are going to want to know where that money went. Let's hope it wasn't spent on expanding the toy range but was invested in core business activities.

I also note their banking facilities were due to expire on December 2015. The way I read the statement is that there is now a four-year arrangement in place, but the loudest alarm bell was the warning that they will breach their covenants.  That seems so very soon for a four-year arrangement and it begs the question of why they are outspending earnings so much.

 

Edited to add details and clarity.

Edited February 11, 2016 by Ozexpatriate

[Ian Hargrave]

Hornby by Bachmann. A few years ago I thought this would be a good idea. But not since Mr Ting from Kader visited 2 years ago and prices shot up since.  I really hope this is not an outcome.  For a start you wouldn't need separate design teams in Barwell and Sandwich , so not good for Hornbys employees.

 

What is needed is a period of tight financial control, review of systems to make sure they are robust. Re enguage with retailer. Maybe some contraction is necessary to concentrate on profitable lines , take out the deadwood. In terms of models I'm not sure the 71 will be a best seller, and I wonder about how much of the stock not moving are Pullmans, but they are doing things right with Colletts, Kings , J15s etc

 

Might need a change in management to renew faith with banks and shareholders.

Well how many ' new managements 'does it need ? CEO Ames has only just put his feet under the table .Yes,I said under,not on.I don't know what it needs to survive and keep on producing the goodies essential to the blood in our veins.We all know it's a situation that seems the be spiralling in the wrong direction .There is no quick,easy fix and no one here has a solution.

 

There is much of excellence on the Hornby staff.Anyone who was fortunate enough to engage with them at the Warley Show last year will tell you that. We benefit from that very excellence and commitment.We all have pet theories of what is wrong.Much is good.It's the only Hornby we've got,when the smoke eventually clears.....and I hope it will.

What I would like to see echoes Dave Jones comments on a knowledge and passion of the product.The Engine Shed proves that the spark exists. Is it possible to harness that quality in a meaningful way towards solvency and profitability?

Hornby is an octopus wth quite possibly too many tentacles.It chooses for instance to outsource its retail warehousing and distribution.That's the current way it appears.Who am I to question management practice? It's not working though,is it ?

The way forward that I would wish to see is a slimming down and a splitting away of the model railway retail and manufacturing process into a separate satellite company.Perhaps too ,a shade less of the cold hand of venture capitalism ?

[coachmann]

Which locomotives are forthcoming from Hornby?

[Ozexpatriate]

Which locomotives are forthcoming from Hornby?

The Peckett and the as built Merchant Navy are ones I am particularly looking forward to. And there's the Q6!

Edited February 11, 2016 by Ozexpatriate

[melmerby]

I wonder if Hornby will now put the brakes on with new loco being released until they over comes their finance issues.

Anything that is tooled and ready for production has had the majority of it's developement cost already.

Not releasing it is a waste of investment i.e. money spent for no return.

 

Keith

[alfsboy]

I always knew those dodgy handrails on the j15 would lead to ruin.

[Ian Hargrave]

The Peckett and the as built Merchant Navy are ones I am particularly looking forward to. And there's the Q6!

Amen to that.Will I get to run my ultimate 'can' ( 35003 ) ere I am promoted to Dai Woodhams in the sky? Not betting on my chances at this moment....