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Hornby's financial updates to the Stock Market


Mel_H

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Rather than obsessing on what are now marginal toy products aimed at children, which in the main will not lead to many kids growing up as train nuts or becoming participants in the model railway hobby, maybe the emphasis should be on making the hobby an attractive and enticing interest for "grown-ups", if that's not an oxymoron for adults playing with toys.

 

 

 

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And the reason it doesn't is because the move towards expensive super-detail models has pulled the rug away from the younger modellers. Buy them a train set, then what next? I've said many times before that there need to be at least 3 or 4 affordable models of locos from each of the Big 4 ( e.g. King, Dean Goods, Pannier, 14XX), BR steam and particularly present day to enable a youngster to get a collection started with suitable encouragement from birthday/Christmas presents. If a young lad say attending a school beside the GWR main line wants a model of the trains he sees every day, he goes on the Hornby website - HST £225 without coaches!

   The younger generation may drop out of the hobby for a while due to schoolwork, girls,other hobbies, families of their own etc, but they can't return to a hobby if they were never in it to start off with!

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And the reason it doesn't is because the move towards expensive super-detail models has pulled the rug away from the younger modellers. Buy them a train set, then what next? I've said many times before that there need to be at least 3 or 4 affordable models of locos from each of the Big 4 ( e.g. King, Dean Goods, Pannier, 14XX), BR steam and particularly present day to enable a youngster to get a collection started with suitable encouragement from birthday/Christmas presents. If a young lad say attending a school beside the GWR main line wants a model of the trains he sees every day, he goes on the Hornby website - HST £225 without coaches!

   The younger generation may drop out of the hobby for a while due to schoolwork, girls,other hobbies, families of their own etc, but they can't return to a hobby if they were never in it to start off with!

I've alway sconsidered that Hornby should have been producing both a railroad and top totty versions of all thier models. The Railroad version with basic all moulded detail parts and much less of the various pipes of the super detailed version and riding on a coarse scale, probably older design chassis. But with the ability to be upgraded with a sold seperately detail pack to replace the moulded stuff and add the missing bits. So the youngster who is given a train set can move futher on and have a model like grandad has, if the youngster decided that they have an interest with doing more than just playing trains.

 

The designers working in the drawing offices are very clever people and I'm sure can break the model down to leave off most of the small fiddly parts. It also means that you only have one body to produce that is that same on both production lines. The Railroad production line fits on the basic & coarse scale parts and the Chinese production fits on the super detail fiddly bits. But either production line can also manufacture the seperate super detail pack so that if anyone wants to they can upgrade their railroad model.

 

One other advantage is that if production is ever moved away from China and back to the UK or anywhere else you only need move part of the production line so your supply isn't interrupted to a great extent. From some of the reports I read and hear in the news a lot of companies are having supply problems from China now...well except the steel industry...I presume from the slow down in the Chinese economy and with Chinese workers demanding higher wages for higher living costs the time when , companies start leaving China is going to come and maybe sooner rather than further into the future and get to the stage where it would be more cost effective to have production back in this country and just ship in the raw material from the far east.

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After talking to a independent third party Who has probably more knowledge than most people.  The main problem is not with Hornby's pricing or current catalogue but China's constant failure to deliver on time.  Remember, Hornby have to pay in advance or put up a huge deposit before a run can be done and if China fails to deliver on time, it's just money that's effectively dead.  This is why Hornby as a manufacturer and distributer are seeking other options and why Airfix production has since been moved away from China to India.

 

The cause of Hornby's problem is that it is NOT a manufacturer - merely a design house and wholsesaler - and thus have no control over production. They don't make anything.

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The younger generation may drop out of the hobby for a while due to schoolwork, girls,other hobbies, families of their own etc, but they can't return to a hobby if they were never in it to start off with!

 

There are plenty of people who start hobbies in mid life that they didn't do or know about when they were young.

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Re  above  post  ' moving  production   back to  UK'.......if  that  occured  then   consumer  price  would  be  VERY  much  higher  than  the  prices  that  many  complain  about  now!  Also  lead  times  for  new  production  would more than likely  be  much  greater

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And the reason it doesn't is because the move towards expensive super-detail models has pulled the rug away from the younger modellers. Buy them a train set, then what next? I've said many times before that there need to be at least 3 or 4 affordable models of locos from each of the Big 4 ( e.g. King, Dean Goods, Pannier, 14XX), BR steam and particularly present day to enable a youngster to get a collection started with suitable encouragement from birthday/Christmas presents. If a young lad say attending a school beside the GWR main line wants a model of the trains he sees every day, he goes on the Hornby website - HST £225 without coaches!

   The younger generation may drop out of the hobby for a while due to schoolwork, girls,other hobbies, families of their own etc, but they can't return to a hobby if they were never in it to start off with!

That hits the nail squarely on the head.  Threr'e no progression.

 

Railroad was a good idea, but its boundaries have become rather fuzzy and then there's a huge leap upwards, into the ranks of the super-detail models. Only sometimes there isn't, because the boundaries of "super-detail" are also fuzzy. At the very low end, there's also too much reliance on generic multi-liveried 0-4-0s that should be consigned to the scrapheap of memory.

 

Whats needed. perhaps is a reconsideration of the layers, to produce a structure something like:

 

  • Young Hornby: Thomas, Santa Express and starter sets using selected locos and stock from Railroad.
  • Hornby Railroad: Robust, representative models that include "iconic" locomotives and rolling stock from Grouping onward.
  • Hornby: The "main" range. More detailed models, that might overlap with Railroad but also include models exclusive to the range.
  • Hornby Plus: High detail models with all the bells and whistles that could be desired. Aspirational.

 

DCC should be standard across ALL the ranges (perhaps excepting starter sets, which would be DCC ready), with TTS available on selected Railroad models, and standard on main range models. Naturally, Hornby Plus models would have a higher end sound system fitted as standard. The TTS system might also be made available as a generic upgrade for current DCC Ready models.

 

Onr thing I would suggest is essential as a first step would be a reconsideration of the basic trainset/pack offerings.  Just ditch the 0-4-0 locos (unless there's going to be an Industrial pack or two utilising the Sentinels or the Peckett). The diesel shunter pack already uses the old 08 loco, the steam goods pack would be better off with a Jinty in a realistic livery. The same goes for the sets.  Rather than the overused Caly Pug and GWR 101 with fanciful liveries, the 08 and Jinty could be used more effectively and give a more sensible upgrade path.

 

Given the current turmoil, such a wholesale rebranding is most unlikely to take place any time soon, but when considering the future of the range thought MUST be given to giving grandparents, parents and children a realistic entry point and an aspirational route onwards and upwards.

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Onr thing I would suggest is essential as a first step would be a reconsideration of the basic trainset/pack offerings.  Just ditch the 0-4-0 locos (unless there's going to be an Industrial pack or two utilising the Sentinels or the Peckett). The diesel shunter pack already uses the old 08 loco, the steam goods pack would be better off with a Jinty in a realistic livery. The same goes for the sets.  Rather than the overused Caly Pug and GWR 101 with fanciful liveries, the 08 and Jinty could be used more effectively and give a more sensible upgrade path.

 

 

I actually prefer the 0-4-0s. With a decent controller they run fairly reasonably, and it appears that Hornby have now changed the motors and the top speed is no longer ludicrous. I find with a bit of care they happily go through insulating frog points despite only having four wheels.

 

On the other hand the one Railroad 0-6-0 I have on my layout doesn't like going over points at all. Quite likely if I had laid the track in a better fashion it would cope, but the 0-0-4-0s already cope OK. I've read that the rigid chassis on the 0-6-0 is less than idea. Now maybe I've been unlucky but it hasn't made me want to get any more.

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There are plenty of people who start hobbies in mid life that they didn't do or know about when they were young.

 

In my case it certainly was a hobby I knew about (and enjoyed) when I was young...but I doubt I ever would have got back into it if it wasn't for a child pestering for a train set. And it only made sense to build it into some kind of layout...and then I was hooked again.

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The problem with the "train set" is that Hornby are the only supplier recognised by the non modeller yet even those with the least detailed loco and stock have a major weak point in the track. Not many households in a modern house with limited room sizes will have space for a 6'x4' board to keep the track fixed to. A track system like the Kato Unitrak would allow the train set to be set up on the floor, as the Japenese do, and not cause locos to get clogged up with fluff and dirt. To go further the simple inclusion of a track rubber, a wheel cleaner and some oil would immediately get across the need for maintenance. As it exists its approaching that time of year workplaces will have comments from someone who bought their child a Hornby train set for Christmas which has "broken".

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The problem with the "train set" is that Hornby are the only supplier recognised by the non modeller yet even those with the least detailed loco and stock have a major weak point in the track. Not many households in a modern house with limited room sizes will have space for a 6'x4' board to keep the track fixed to. A track system like the Kato Unitrak would allow the train set to be set up on the floor, as the Japenese do, and not cause locos to get clogged up with fluff and dirt. To go further the simple inclusion of a track rubber, a wheel cleaner and some oil would immediately get across the need for maintenance. As it exists its approaching that time of year workplaces will have comments from someone who bought their child a Hornby train set for Christmas which has "broken".

Just like the original Triang standard track.

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That hits the nail squarely on the head.  Threr'e no progression.

 

Railroad was a good idea, but its boundaries have become rather fuzzy and then there's a huge leap upwards, into the ranks of the super-detail models. Only sometimes there isn't, because the boundaries of "super-detail" are also fuzzy. At the very low end, there's also too much reliance on generic multi-liveried 0-4-0s that should be consigned to the scrapheap of memory.

 

Whats needed. perhaps is a reconsideration of the layers, to produce a structure something like:

 

  • Young Hornby: Thomas, Santa Express and starter sets using selected locos and stock from Railroad.
  • Hornby Railroad: Robust, representative models that include "iconic" locomotives and rolling stock from Grouping onward.
  • Hornby: The "main" range. More detailed models, that might overlap with Railroad but also include models exclusive to the range.
  • Hornby Plus: High detail models with all the bells and whistles that could be desired. Aspirational.

 

DCC should be standard across ALL the ranges (perhaps excepting starter sets, which would be DCC ready), with TTS available on selected Railroad models, and standard on main range models. Naturally, Hornby Plus models would have a higher end sound system fitted as standard. The TTS system might also be made available as a generic upgrade for current DCC Ready models.

 

Onr thing I would suggest is essential as a first step would be a reconsideration of the basic trainset/pack offerings.  Just ditch the 0-4-0 locos (unless there's going to be an Industrial pack or two utilising the Sentinels or the Peckett). The diesel shunter pack already uses the old 08 loco, the steam goods pack would be better off with a Jinty in a realistic livery. The same goes for the sets.  Rather than the overused Caly Pug and GWR 101 with fanciful liveries, the 08 and Jinty could be used more effectively and give a more sensible upgrade path.

 

Given the current turmoil, such a wholesale rebranding is most unlikely to take place any time soon, but when considering the future of the range thought MUST be given to giving grandparents, parents and children a realistic entry point and an aspirational route onwards and upwards.

 

 

Right! OK!! Thats Hornby dealt with.......... Well at least the bit to do with model trains. And as valid as those comments are what they overlook is the fact...... and it has been banged on enough in previous posts. Is that Hornby Group is more than model trains. Yes it's the famous bit. But what about Scalextric, Airfix, Humbrol, Corgi and Pocher and thats in the UK. Internationally there is Electrotren, Rivarossi, Joueff and Arnold. Add to that all the other facets that go with running any kind of international manufacturing business and the rather parochial viewpoint of how a few starter sets are bundled kind of diminishes in weight.

 

Hornby have some major issues. From brand diversity, manufacturing set up, accounting, stock control and just general poor management and management vision, down to even dare I say it, the rather apocalyptical choice of Loco in their UK range starter sets.

 

Sorry for the rant but i do feel this thread is getting a bit predictable.

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Just like the original Triang standard track.

Or Bachmann's E-Z track. I used it on the carpet round the Xmas Tree for the Santa Train set (sad but true) and it worked a treat. Very suitable for beginners/children - robust and easy to put together but fits 00/H0 rolling stock perfectly.

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 The main problem is not with Hornby's pricing or current catalogue but China's constant failure to deliver on time. 

 

 

i would have thought the one thing Hornby did get right in 2015 was the delivery of large numbers of top items into the shops before Christmas, so much so, many of us couldn't afford to buy all we wanted which was released at the same time.

 

The whole profit warning statement blaming the sudden deterioration on a dip in sales in January doesn't stack up. This is just another example of a company in trouble through its own actions looking to find an excuse in other people's actions. In my view sales in late 2015/early 2016 have little to do with it.

 

I think we will find that debt is at the root of all this.

 

Hornby botched the China production plan. Getting out of it cost a lot more than they admit. Couple that with a clearly botched website upgrade which probably also cost more than they admit to put right. Couple that with a move out of Margate, the cost of which I suspect even the Board doesn't yet know and it results in £10m debt they will admit to, and probably much more on the way. Companies never blame their own mistakes, they always blame their customers.

 

Whether Hornby is fixable depends mostly on what the final debt figure is when the website, the production and delivery line, and the new office/warehouse settles down. And whether the company stops throwing good money after bad. Not to mention whether they rebuild a relationship of trust with the people they deal with.

 

I don't see much sign of that right now.

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This morning's Radio 4 BH section with Pete Waterman unfortunately fell into nostalgia, and didn't really cover Hornby's problems at all. There was a brief bit by an economist(?) that Hornby were too focussed on model trains and not enough on their toy market, I'm not sure what to say to that. The rest just seemed to be Paddy O'Connell enjoying seeing and hearing Pete Waterman's Leamington Spa layout...

 

Back on topic, I feel there is certainly a need for Hornby to get their product ranges right, whether it's between the non-railway toys and the railway stuff, or within the railway ranges. Their current 'confusion' of products and the way it all seems to be under the singular 'Hornby' name, isn't helping.

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Or Bachmann's E-Z track. I used it on the carpet round the Xmas Tree for the Santa Train set (sad but true) and it worked a treat. Very suitable for beginners/children - robust and easy to put together but fits 00/H0 rolling stock perfectly.

 

And indeed Marklin C-Track, as used in their "My World" robust battery powered remote control trains. Very easy to put together, fine on a carpet....though you have to respect the geometry much more than you can away with with regular Hornby/peco track.

 

So it will be very interesting to see what track is used for the Hornby Junior battery trains. Maerklin had a head start there because they already sold suitable track.

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I think retailers belly aching about pricing and they claiming they could sell more are missing the point.  You could claim to sell DCC and sound loco's at £10's, yes you could sell them but if you can't get them, what's the point?  To paraphrase Kevin Costner in the film Field of Dreams "if you build it, they will buy" but only if the manufacturer delivers on time.

Depends if Hornby are selling things on their web site at or below the trade price, while expecting those who pay the trade price to take the costs of holding stock and the risks of that stock not selling an needing to be reduced in price, as well as supporting the final customers and providing a local presence for the brand..

 

Many years ago one of the bike importers started selling bikes directly to the public. A £3k bike (official retail price) could be bought from the importer for £2.4k. Predictably the dealers were very much unimpressed and certainly wouldn't want to pick up the costs of warranty work or holding stock when their supplier was doing that to them. That importer disappeared soon afterwards, while the brand of motorcycle is still on sale in the UK several decades later.

 

Katy

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Right! OK!! Thats Hornby dealt with.......... Well at least the bit to do with model trains.  (...)

Well, Model Trains (OO at that!) is the context we're dealing with here.  I was mainly thinking aloud about how Hornby might make their UK railway brand more understandable and acceptable to potential (and current) buyers. Ok, with a few gripes about the dreadful 0-4-0 locos!

 

If we try to sort out the continental brands, and Airfix, and Scalextrix, AND Humbrol we'd get even more predictable. And then there's Hornbys relationship with direct selling and the traditional retailers.  But "parochial" matters - after all, its the grassroots of the hobby in the UK, and if Hornby, the group implodes, all the parts will be sold off/go under. For Hornby (the model railway company) to survive without retreating to an expensive niche, they have to have products that have commercial value across the spectrum, not just high end models.

 

But yes, lets remember the wider perspective of potential managerial incompetence and poor decision making too.

 

And the currently awful world financial turmoil that has nothing to do with Hornby...

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Something about this on BBC R4's Broadcasting House this morning - a financial expert said that Hornby was spending too much time and investment on model railways and not enough on toys. Afterwards, Paddy went to play trains with Pete Waterman and rediscovered his inner boy.

Mal

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Equally I have no specific insight - you need proper due diligence to work out what would be viable given the weak public disclosure. Anecdotally, it seems the problems come when they step out of their core market and try something, whilst logical, new. Eg the Olympics losses a few years ago.

 

An interesting investment thesis to test would be whether you try and position yourself more exclusively for the core demographic - ditch the toy line of thinking. I'd reckon that of most of Hornby's customers their buying patterns are relatively stable and predictable. From that, I think you could build a realistic business plan. It's not a sexy PE turnaround for a 25%+ irr over three years but one where some stable, predictable cash flows can be generated. Probably one for the alternatives end of a pension or insurance investor.

 

Particularly if you can derisk the business by moving to a preorder system for new toolings. Ask for a deposit, or funding via a JV partner such as the retailers or locomotion, then you can fund your tooling costs without damaging cash flow with a less uncertainty on what you will sell. If you can get payback on the tooling from the initial runs, then you should be in a strong position. Points towards a move away from the one-off prototypes though!

 

David

It is interesting that someone else has mentioned an exactly opposite situation where it is considered that Hornby are over focused on their model railway product.   The reality I suspect is that they aren't properly focused on any of their products apart from 'protecting their brand'.

 

What we don't know - and what could well contain the answer to some of their recent troubles - is the pattern of cashflow in each brand and the levels of investment and profitability on a range/brand basis.  I wonder, idly speculating, if their good results in early 2015 were due to the arrival of new, higher range, model railway products which are less affected by seasonality than the 'toy' market.  If you then budget on that basis but don't achieve the necessary product delivery at the right time you don't get the cash in;  that, as I've said, is purely speculative but it is worth bearing in mind that while higher quality model railway items involve investment and lead time they have a potential, properly managed, to deliver cashflow (although not spectacularly high profits in today's market).

 

This is where the whole business of understanding your markets meets the financial structure of the company and that will probably differ for each of their brand/product areas.  Simply telling brand managers to beat last year's figures is a road to nowhere unless marketable product arrives at the right times.

 

Equally a relatively small company like Hornby, especially in a  market with many seasonal influences, might well not have the financial resilience to support an expensive overall managerial tier.  It is one thing to do what Hornby have been doing over the past 15-18 months or so and going hard for cash generation and quite another to do it on a planned sustained basis, especially with an unavoidably long supply line for some key product.  It doesn't help either when the supply situation is subject to numerous external influences over which they have little control ranging from currency fluctuation to a peculiar(to us) impact of particular holidays which also affect the way product and money are or are not moving in and out of the business.  If you don't hold stocks, or withhold product from market for a month or two after it lands, in order to smooth sales income it will inevitably go in fits & starts which can play havoc with budgets and financial plans - again part of understanding the business you are in and the way your product is manufactured.

 

The stock loss is, in many respects, a minor thing although it is big money, but here again I do wonder about understanding of the market.  In the not very distant past Hornby's new management was all about reducing inventory - so why was there that much stock value left to 'disappear'.  Again we don't know the details but it is noticeable that for a long time reps have been pushing hard all sorts of minor bits & pieces such as some of the much older accessories for which some retailers could perceive no market so wouldn't order.  Again speculating but if that stock were to be put on the books at retail 'value' that will have increased as prices have been increased thus a lot of very slow moving old stock has risen in book value while its saleability has declined partly due to lack of demand and partly due to rising prices; the stock write off starts to make a  glimmer of sense.  All you then need to do is throw in the situation of, say, last summer where retailers were trying to place orders direct and being told by the sales people that they didn't know if a particular item was in stock or not so they weren't sure if they could supply - which tells a story of its own I think.

 

I don't doubt there are some big problems at Hornby but I have more than a suspicion that they have far more to do with the way things have (or, seemingly in many cases, haven't) been managed while sights have been firmly set on a dash for cash and total sales figures rather than the wider management of the group.  My greatest fear now is that in trying to get a grip there will be a clamp down on investment in future products for short term gain, or to reduce costs, which will turn round and bite the product ranges which really need continuing investment.  In other words a repeat of the crackpot Olympics themed disaster where eyes were taken of the ball and there was less interest in the goal than the grandstands.

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Having read through the Hornby report I'm still trying to establish in exactly what brand area problems like overstocks are? Have I missed something. There seems to be within the forum a rush to consider that it is Hornby Trains that is the villain of the peace, but why not Scalextric or Airfix? The Humbro business seems to be trying to re-invent itself and then there is Electrotren and Joueff.

 

I have to take sides with The Stationmaster and say that in business terms what seems apparent is that the way the things have been "accounted" for seems in question. My own opinion is that the new Management of Hornby International need to take a long hard look at what Brands are performing and which aren't. There does seem to be a very definite case of "What you don't own, you don't have control of" in play here

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I stick to model railways but have several friends who are aircraft and military modellers, they are full of praise for the way Airfix in recent years have improved, bringing out new models and re tooling old moulds up to modern day standards.

 

Also told that these are now manufactured in India, has this been a helpful move taking manufacture issues away from China.

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Thanks Mike. I agree. On costs, H is c4x turnover of Bachmann's uk outfit but c5x the staff. I think h does work and resource itself like a major Plc.

 

I think the comment about delivery schedules jools1959 made above may be very pertinent albeit primarily a working capital issue.

 

I can see how you can get your budgeting wrong if you expect sales based on when that product should have been delivered. Instinctively, I don't think that makes a difference to the the hobby market - we'll all relatively indifferent as to when our collett coaches are delivered albeit Hornby have to fund the timing mismatch. Hence my comment that preordering could help. To be clear, unlike the majority of preorders I've made, I think these need to be genuine sales with customers parting with hard cash.

 

I do think it makes a difference when the Thomas sets arrive - suspect those being late was not helpful and can hit sales and expected cash flow. If you're buying for Christmas and it doesn't arrive until 20th Dec (can't recall date), I suspect most parents wouldn't/didn't buy.

 

The working capital hit could be significant and if to solve it, there is a dash to cash through discounting, you could create a p&l issue. It can also create a debt leverage issue. Net debt increases to fund the working capital, ebitda is reduced, no sales, hence a debt/ebitda leverage covenant could be under significant pressure.

 

Plus like pavlov's dog, consumers sit back and wait for discounts...there's plenty of anecdotal evidence for that on here!

 

I think there are various routes - toy company, hobby specialist etc that could all be successful. As you indentify problem is trying to do both (eg design clever).

 

David

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Having read through the Hornby report I'm still trying to establish in exactly what brand area problems like overstocks are? Have I missed something. There seems to be within the forum a rush to consider that it is Hornby Trains that is the villain of the peace, but why not Scalextric or Airfix? The Humbro business seems to be trying to re-invent itself and then there is Electrotren and Joueff.

 

I have to take sides with The Stationmaster and say that in business terms what seems apparent is that the way the things have been "accounted" for seems in question. My own opinion is that the new Management of Hornby International need to take a long hard look at what Brands are performing and which aren't. There does seem to be a very definite case of "What you don't own, you don't have control of" in play here

Firstly Hornby are not giving out enough information for us to understand where the core problems are, however UK sales make up 79% of Hornby group revenues (2015 Annual Report)(up from 71% in 2014), and 40% of all sales is model trains, plus 23% Scalextric (2014 Report). Thus Hornby trains is the biggest component of the business. This means that subject to seeing more detailed numbers, UK trains is the core of the business in terms of revenue, and for things to be going dramatically wrong either the UK trains bit is failing (as the other areas of the business are not big enough to drive the sort of losses we are now looking at) or (or as well as) the fundamental functions of the business are failing across the board e.g. logistics, merchandising, brand management etc.

 

The business cannot survive if the UK model train part is not working well. The other bits may drive growth but Hornby absolutely has to master its overall UK sales of all lines and UK model train sales to survive. And as we know from botched branding, website, ERP system and the undermining of relationships with trade and retail customers and media, that this is not happening despite sorting the production issues. Electrotren, Joueff or Airfix are not generating multi-million pound losses. The management has botched its UK operations, arguably undermining its brand value and sales, and has been too busy doing fancy and unncessary outsourcing and ERP. Global sales are 21% and presumably costly to operate, and the management sees them as a "growth" area, not profit centres now (which it needs).

 

They seemed to assume that if they sorted model production they could ignore UK sales and marketing and treat customers like idiots and stuff would still sell. Mr Southworth was involved in the Olympic mess that nearly wrecked the company (he fronted the announcement of the deal) and is now Head of Sales & Brands. The strategies put in place have been too generic and it is clear they don't understand or care for this specialist market despite it underpinning the entire business. They've made it easy for the new entrants. Someone needs to go.

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