Which Hornby Models Will Collectors Desire?

[knitpick]

Aren't we all collectors after a fashion?  Buying models to fit with our layout and interests. 

 

Notwithstanding this there are some who see collecting as a method of making money.  In the short tem, they will buy items that are underproduced against initial demand - the Bachmann SECR C class being a case in point.  Then try to sell on a few years later at a suitably inflated price.

 

The same does happen with Hornby (e.g. the Clan?).  Note that I did suggest Hornby produce Hengist - and could make a small donation to the build project for every loco sold.  Then those who want a Clan can easily rename and renumber.

 

As to the future and the equivalent of the Hornby Dublo / Tri-Ang collectors of today; we can assume that these collectors will want (ideally mint) boxed models.  I.e. don't attach any of the parts in the little plastic bag and DON'T weather / renumber etc. if you really want to retain value.  It is likely that at this stage, the low production items will not be quite so valuable as the more commonplace since more of those low production items with current high prices will have been stored away unused.  Whereas the commonplace will be heavily used.  In this context, the Christmas and Father's Day models are unlikely to appreciate in value.

 

So if you want to leave your grandchildren a valuable legacy of Hornby models, buy the commonplace and store away unused for 30+ years.

 

The other issue to consider is that the market has changed over the past 50 years.  A lot of Hornby Dublo / Tri-Ang collectors are collecting things that were part of their childhood.  The modern model railway market is mainly older people and fewer children.  Will today's children, when older, want to relive part of their childhood by buying Hornby models when they didn't play with them when young?  And if they do will they be more interested in Railroad?

 

But then I could be wrong - especially if everyone follows my advice.

[JSpencer]

Most people tend to collect what they knew as a kid. Kids these days are Nintendo DS and their ilk, so I doubt many of them will be collecting Hornby trains.

 

The TRIX twin collectors club has less than 100 members now, all getting older and I don't see young ones jumping on the boat to buy these.

[Nearholmer]

I'm rather taken by this .......

[Edwardian]

Aren't we all collectors after a fashion?  Buying models to fit with our layout and interests. 

 

Notwithstanding this there are some who see collecting as a method of making money.  In the short tem, they will buy items that are underproduced against initial demand - the Bachmann SECR C class being a case in point.  Then try to sell on a few years later at a suitably inflated price.

 

The same does happen with Hornby (e.g. the Clan?).  Note that I did suggest Hornby produce Hengist - and could make a small donation to the build project for every loco sold.  Then those who want a Clan can easily rename and renumber.

 

As to the future and the equivalent of the Hornby Dublo / Tri-Ang collectors of today; we can assume that these collectors will want (ideally mint) boxed models.  I.e. don't attach any of the parts in the little plastic bag and DON'T weather / renumber etc. if you really want to retain value.  It is likely that at this stage, the low production items will not be quite so valuable as the more commonplace since more of those low production items with current high prices will have been stored away unused.  Whereas the commonplace will be heavily used.  In this context, the Christmas and Father's Day models are unlikely to appreciate in value.

 

So if you want to leave your grandchildren a valuable legacy of Hornby models, buy the commonplace and store away unused for 30+ years.

 

The other issue to consider is that the market has changed over the past 50 years.  A lot of Hornby Dublo / Tri-Ang collectors are collecting things that were part of their childhood.  The modern model railway market is mainly older people and fewer children.  Will today's children, when older, want to relive part of their childhood by buying Hornby models when they didn't play with them when young?  And if they do will they be more interested in Railroad?

 

But then I could be wrong - especially if everyone follows my advice.

 

In the broadest sense, yes, but this topic seems more concerned with collectors in the sense ably defined by Nearholmer.

 

IM-not-so-HO, the dangerous and deluded type!

[rob D2]

If you have more locos than the actual requirements to run your layout, don't you automatically become a collector ?

 

I'd be honest and say, I'm only a modeller to give a back drop to the stuff I collect really

[adb968008]

I go with the view that no models will be collectable investments in the future.

 

When I first started in the 1980s a CoBo in good nick fetched a fortune.

If you wanted a Peppercorn A2, the Trix model cost a lot more than a peppercorn rate.

 

Cometh the 1990s and Arise the limited edition.

I once sold a Lima Class 50, 50008 Thunderer for £250 once.

A Bachmann A4 Dwight D Eisenhower, limited edition of a previously unbelievably small run of 125 or 250, sold only in America.. I sold for over £650.

 

Roll on 20 years...

 

All the stuff of the 1960s/70s lies largely in landfill, or the edge of the bin (ebay)...only if it's absolutely immaculate, unopened, unused, untarnished has a it really got a hope.

 

All the stuff of the 1980s lies in the bargain basement, todate, it's largely worth the same price as it was new, but due to inflation is worth much less. It does however the important job of feeding the all important new comers to the hobby who want something not too shabby to get started with in the hobby...

But in 10 years all that 1980's/early 90s stuff... it'll be in the bin, or the edge of the bin.

 

The exceptions being models that have not been retooled.. the Class 124 comes to mind.. at some point that investment will nose dive when (I say when not if) someone makes a new one.

 

The reason for the decline in the 1980s/90s stuff is the advent of replacement toolings, whilst at a higher price the quality made it worth while and pushed the older stuff down the ladder.

 

I think the current 2000s/2010s stuff will head the same way, sadly due to attrition in number of people buying models in the hobby, putting a lot of it back onto the market, saturating it somewhat... I can't help thinking the current round of price rises now, is one way of heading off the devaluation in the future, as push up the price now, prevents such a fall later and has the effect of reducing supply, whilst retaining some sense of a margin. I can't see all the luxury range of the last 20 years being re-tooled again. Some will, much won't.

 

The hobby will still be here, but i don't think anyone will get rich.

 

 

That £650 Bachmann A4.. turns up frequently on ebay at around £100-125 now... and in my opinion considering they were made at the time the tooling was nice and fresh makes much more sense to my to buy than the subsequent editions since, given how many thousand A4s have been made in the intervening years.

 

As for the clan.. it's only rare until Hornby make it again. I remember once Hornby Patriots and Triang Blue Pullmans were once as rare as rocking horse droppings...

 

To me Hornby Dublo 3Rail is ready to fall of a cliff, its just not compatible to anyone of a younger age, 2 rail & Wrenn really has a finite life before it falls off too.. why would a younger collector want a tooling that is aged, lacking in detail and not well finished compared to a newer modern equivalent, especially if they weren't around to remember the real thing or even the metal range being produced ?

 

So on that note.. Open the box, get it out and start playing with it... as thats where the value is, safe in the knowledge that If something breaks.. a few years down the line, ebay will broken boneyard parts from other broken down models.

[Dunsignalling]

It doesn't always work quite like that as the key to price is not just how many there happen to be (in collectable condition) but how many are actually on the market.  Thus the first one or two might come onto the market and the price will still be high although it will tend to gradually fall as the second and third appear (or even drop steeply with the third).  People will then be tempted to sell and the price will drop like a stone purely because of more being available - even if there was only a limited number to start with.

 

A good example of this is the Hornby Dublo emu which at one time was commanding very high prices - these tempted out other sellers no doubt seeking to take their profit and prices dropped.  So fewer sellers came forward and the price began to climb but nowhere near the original dizzying heights.  But through all of this there were no more or less HD emus in existence, that number was more or less constant - all that changed was the frequency with which they came up for sale.

 

The same applies with railway postcards - generally views of stations tend to fetch quite high prices but if the cards can regularly be found on sale the price does not go so high.  Thus views of some larger stations were not only printed in large numbers but still float around the market in reasonable quantity as collections are broken up or sold or dealers sell slow moving stock and the prices tend to be ridiculously low.  Rare view, rarer station, rarely on the market and the factors combine to shove the prices up to near to three figures or more (I paid £90 for a card showing Aston Rowant on the Watlington branch) whereas I have chucked into bulk sale lots more cards of Newcastle (central) than I care to think about.  

Yes, but I'm looking sufficiently far ahead that I expect a couple of other factors to come into play.

 

1. Years down the road, many of the original purchasers' collections will be being broken up by their executors - hence the locos will come up for sale quite regularly.

 

2. Current collectors aren't replaced in equal number as they drop off the perch; a not unreasonable assumption given that most that I know collect primarily what they either had or aspired to as kids. Fewer kids into model trains now = fewer adult collectors later.

 

Those who still chase HD (at swap-meets I attend) generally seem to be at least 5-10 years older than me (I'm 64) and most seem to have got nearly everything they want. Activity mainly consists of trading up to better examples of things they already own. I've noticed a couple of dealers whose stock looks largely unchanged for sale after sale. Both have at least one EMU and have done for over a year since I first spotted them.  Either supply now exceeds demand and/or they have an exaggerated idea of what they will fetch.

 

John

[Dunsignalling]

 

When I first started in the 1980s a CoBo in good nick fetched a fortune.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You should have got one about 1970, Hatton's were still (slowly) shifting new ones for £4.19.6d then.........

 

John

[Ozexpatriate]

Thinking a bit about the question, though, the things that really get collectors going, in the long-run, seem to be:

....

- durability (it's not all that much fun collecting broken things, until it gets to Roman pottery shards);

Archaeologists would be over the moon finding an intact first century chamber pot*, (even better if it had 'residue') but beggars can't be choosers.

 

* Not that the Romans needed such things being enlightened enough to have running water in their latrines.

 

Aren't we all collectors after a fashion?  Buying models to fit with our layout and interests.

Indeed so. My first thought when the OP was posted was "what exactly is a collector?" The use of the word is yet another form of trying to establish some form of caste system or hierarchy in the messy and pointless exercise of trying to codify and pigeon hole subsets of people who enjoy toy trains.

 

....  It is likely that at this stage, the low production items will not be quite so valuable as the more commonplace since more of those low production items with current high prices will have been stored away unused.  Whereas the commonplace will be heavily used.  In this context, the Christmas and Father's Day models are unlikely to appreciate in value.

 

So if you want to leave your grandchildren a valuable legacy of Hornby models, buy the commonplace and store away unused for 30+ years.

I tend to agree. The old Hornby tinplate, Dublo etc was played with. Today there are enough people who purchase mint items and stash them away - even those of us who do so with the intent to use them "properly" one day, that the relative rarity of mint items for things made in the last 16 years or so is much lower than that for earlier decades. Very little of it will be truly valuable until we are long dead anyway. It's never an investment, except possibly for our grandchildren and even then there are many better places to put ones money.

[Torn-on-the-platform]

In the medium term, Olive Hornby Maunsells will command a premium, if they don't already. I would hope that they will bring out more in the future, but in the mean time they appear to be very difficult to come by!

 

I have mentioned before that I am hoping to rationalise my collection but most of what needs to go are 90s/00s purchases that have since been superseded by better models. Part of the reason that I talk about it, but never get round to it, is that I'm worried that its really worth very little and isn't worth the effort of photographing, listing and sorting postage. Hopefully my Olive Grafar Suburbans are worth something! Ebay seems to think that they are worth more than I paid for them...

[adb968008]

You should have got one about 1970, Hatton's were still (slowly) shifting new ones for £4.19.6d then.........

 

John

 

I can legitimately blame my parents for missing out on that deal.

[Edwardian]

If you have more locos than the actual requirements to run your layout, don't you automatically become a collector ?

 

I'd be honest and say, I'm only a modeller to give a back drop to the stuff I collect really

 

No, you're just a modeller with layouts left to build

[rob D2]

I've enough for three planks at least

[Ian Hargrave]

I can legitimately blame my parents for missing out on that deal.

So you're following Philip Larkin down that road ?

[Nearholmer]

Allied to my earlier dour prediction of the collectability of current Hornby in the long run, I do think that the hoarding/stashing that has gone on for the past 15-20 years serves a useful purpose for modeller/operators: it has created a sort of "strategic reserve" of stuff, which trickles into the market, in near-mint mint condition, ripe to be used, improved etc. That affect is different from classic collecting.

 

HD and Wrenn I personally think will "hold up" better than some predict, because they pass the "well made", "durable" and "evocative" tests. Leaving aside how precisely they do or don't represent the prototypes, they are delightful objects in themselves, that will always appeal to some people, in the same way that good analogue watches, or cameras, or telescopes, for instance, do.

 

I can imagine history-conscious technophiles wanting a modest HD layout in a hundred years time; much less so wanting a modest current-production-style layout.

 

K

[robmcg]

In the medium term, Olive Hornby Maunsells will command a premium, if they don't already. I would hope that they will bring out more in the future, but in the mean time they appear to be very difficult to come by!

 

I have mentioned before that I am hoping to rationalise my collection but most of what needs to go are 90s/00s purchases that have since been superseded by better models. Part of the reason that I talk about it, but never get round to it, is that I'm worried that its really worth very little and isn't worth the effort of photographing, listing and sorting postage. Hopefully my Olive Grafar Suburbans are worth something! Ebay seems to think that they are worth more than I paid for them...

 

I must say that the effort involved in photographing, checking, describing and listing items for auction can be quite extreme, for something worth a few quid, quite apart from the checking that an engine runs well. This latter operation as many know is a very delicate operation, getting a Duchess out of its foam insert without damage, remembering where the foam bit go,  I would go so far as to say that it is impossible to remove an engine from packaging without some evidence remaining.

 

If the engine when tested is audible, it has to be described fairly, too. 

 

This raises the question, if the engine has never been removed, is it worth as much, or more, given that it cannot have been tested, and if after sale proves faulty, the only recourse is a refund for the buyer ...     Often I receive items from sellers which are faulty but usually it is not too serious, a coach axle seized and jammed or suchlike (recently on a new Collett) .   Often I am impressed by the professionalism of Ebay or other sellers who pack things as well as the factory,  and of course the buyer is always right, and if there is anything wrong with a sale a refund must be offered, unless of course specifically covered by 'no returns'.

 

Consequent upon all this is that I have somewhat more models than I 'need',  and have no doubt that when I choose to sell, thousands of others like me will do the same!   

 

Of course I also ;like collecting, and have a serious disease in respect of Merchant Navy models, Bachmann Std Class 5 4-6-0s, and Hornby Arthurs. The prudent modeller needs several of each, surely...

 

I very much like the idea from Nearholmer that the numbers of 'collected' models will tend to dribble onto the market and we can all indulge ourselves.   

[robmcg]

A beautiful model of a contentious prototype - I'm delighted with mine, distressed and weathered, with a tender full of real Kingmoor coal; even though she was withdrawn a couple of years wrong-side of my era.

 

Surely a great example of Margate at its best.

 

Ah, the forlorn 6MT ...  !   I have two Clans but don't want to sell either, and suddenly the collector in me wants every version Hornby has ever made!  

 

What a truly stunning bit of plastic art!   slightly edited but the model is superb.

 

[robmcg]

Worth going to the "stuffed animal museum" at Tring, if you get a chance http://www.nhm.ac.uk/visit/tring.html

 

This is what happens when obsession, compulsion, and huge sums of disposable income come together. Going inside, is like physically entering the over-stuffed, detail-rich, mind of the collector.

 

K

 

I am in denial.

 

 

What a superb model....     hardly any of these factory-weathered ones around in perfect condition.... reduced, did you say?

 

Perhaps I'll renumber it,  just like the other two I have....

 

or..

 

I sleep securely knowing that I have all five Irwell Black 5 books, and have never attempted to collect every Hornby super-detail Black 5   because  I am a rational man...        that 44694 really is nice though, and it entered traffic the month I was born.....  I'll take two..... 

[robmcg]

Allied to my earlier dour prediction of the collectability of current Hornby in the long run, I do think that the hoarding/stashing that has gone on for the past 15-20 years serves a useful purpose for modeller/operators: it has created a sort of "strategic reserve" of stuff, which trickles into the market, in near-mint mint condition, ripe to be used, improved etc. That affect is different from classic collecting.

 

...

K

 

 

You mean that my garage full of SK Exeters is now worthless, apart from the malicious rumour about mazak rot....

 

I am reminded of my days in the 1970s and 80s running and maintaining 1950s Jaguars in NZ., where there was a country gentleman in Canterbury with two paddocks full of lines of Jaguars and Jowetts of various kinds, grass growing through most of them, he also never threw out a newspaper, nor did he ever wash or clean the house, and he was, shall we say, a little bit hard to fathom, indeed he didn't show much interest in selling anything, and , well,  the UK had made NZ farmers quite wealthy through the 50s and 60s.

 

One day he proved to be actually approachable and let me 'take what I want' from a couple of cars, a Salisbury 3.54:1 drum-brake rear axle hub-to-hub and other twin-trailing shoe 1957 3.4 Mk1 Jag parts found their way onto my car, maybe me being in a wheelchair and doing all the work myself made some dim light of empathy rise within him, but his name and character I will never forget..

 

by comparison, my enjoyment of recent Hornby models is quite harmless.

 

who are those men in white coats....? 

[Jenny Emily]

My partner has recently begun collecting Sony Playstation 2 games. What is interesting is that rarities aren't necessarily what you expect them to be. Generally they are games that were either unpopular at the time, so didn't sell well before becoming 'cult' classics, or games that were so popular that no-one wants to part with their copy, reducing the number for sale and pushing prices up. The best selling game of all time on the format (GTA San Andreas) comands a price higher than many games simply because of its popularity affecting supply and demand. Other games such as Rock Band 2 weren't sold in large quantities because they came out when the format was dying off and superceded by the PS3 and despite their rarity command half what a copy of GTA SA does.

 

If predicting the rarities was easy, we'd all make lots of money buying them as investments. Hornby didn't really do limited editions in the same way as Bachmann does so rarities amongst Hornby items really comes down to popularity of a model and resulting ready supply of them on the secondhand market.

 

When Hattons cleared out their last stash of Hornby Dublo I remember multiple mint boxed examples of the supposed hard to get 8F number 48094 prompting people to question the price and rarity given that there were several sat next to each other in the display case.

[adb968008]

I seem to go through swings and roundabouts, a few years back I bought everything I wanted, then circumstance changed and I did a hatchet job on selling the lot (I did post a couple to a guy in NZ.. Rob..you may have my old Britannia). :-)

 

then circumstance changed again, and it seems like they all came back.

 

Post office loves me, Postman doesn't.

 

Today I'm looking at a 15metre running circle, 3 levels with many combinations of loops..not much scenery (it's a trainset not a layout)..or it's a long term thing as I like to put it..

But much is in boxes.. I'm thinking, should i clear out  ?.. just for the sake of making space for everything else.

 

I have slowly stopped buying and started modelling... I just created 52515 ( the last Aspinall 0-6-0 in service there's a lovely but sad picture of it leaving the loop at Bradley Fold heading light engine towards Bolton & hence Horwich works for scrapping on RS Greenwoods website, probably the last picture of it and it's class in steam on BR) and 51378 (Newton Heath Aspinall shunter) to join my L&Y Dreadnought 50455, this evening from some LMS livered kits I got in various bits a while back,

Ive also just finished an ARC models RSH 0-6-0T (thats such an easy kit, made in a few hours), ready for painting  and started looking at an Agenora Swedish Hudswell Clarke (Manchester ship canal tank)..which looks bit more interesting to build....

Also on the long term list is an L&Y Dreadnought 4-6-4T, which I'm considering using a Black 5 chassis as the base... but frustratingly this model hasn't got a cab roof, and I can't find anything close to replace it (An Ivatt 2-6-2T seems a close fit).

 

Indeed the one aspect that will survive the collectable future argument I think will be kits.... any model not made RTR, but made as a really nice kit with a decent finish will always rise inline with inflation and prevailing rtr prices... assuming it doesn't end up RTR.. so more obscure the less the risk.

[BR60103]

If I was looking to invest, I'd check out the locos that seem to have developed a lot of mazak rot and try to find intact examples.

Then, the products that were ridiculed: TriAng red Hall, Lionel pink Girls Set (I think this one already went through its cycle).

 

I have been inspired; I'll collect every D number from Hornby Dublo; I already have D1 and D2.

[Dunsignalling]

Allied to my earlier dour prediction of the collectability of current Hornby in the long run, I do think that the hoarding/stashing that has gone on for the past 15-20 years serves a useful purpose for modeller/operators: it has created a sort of "strategic reserve" of stuff, which trickles into the market, in near-mint mint condition, ripe to be used, improved etc. That affect is different from classic collecting.

 

HD and Wrenn I personally think will "hold up" better than some predict, because they pass the "well made", "durable" and "evocative" tests. Leaving aside how precisely they do or don't represent the prototypes, they are delightful objects in themselves, that will always appeal to some people, in the same way that good analogue watches, or cameras, or telescopes, for instance, do.

 

I can imagine history-conscious technophiles wanting a modest HD layout in a hundred years time; much less so wanting a modest current-production-style layout.

 

K

The very durability of HD is something that will pull prices down in the longer term; it's all down to simple arithmetic.

 

There will always be some who are attracted to collecting most things but a substantial factor in collecting HD has always been nostalgia for one's own youth. Collectors in that category are, sadly, already disappearing. In the next couple of decades, more-or-less the same number of models will be chasing far fewer potential buyers.

 

There will probably enough "new recruits" to ensure that the genuine rarities and other items in truly mint/boxed condition continue to command good prices but I really don't see the rest maintaining current values, let alone appreciating. There's just too much of most things and the rate of attrition of such robust items will be too low to balance declining demand.

 

It is to be hoped that one of the really comprehensive collections currently in existence can be kept together in a museum somewhere.   

 

John

[Clearwater]

Of the current Hornby range, I'm not sure there's anything iconic enough to become collectable in its own right. Beautiful models they may be but there's an ubiquity to them and the reworkings of existing tools reduce the uniqueness in my view. Because the prototype is more iconic, I think Bachmann's blue Pullman may make the leap to collectable. Perhaps the Hornby live steam range will too. I'd also shortlist the Rapido apt which I'm now beginning to regret not ordering. Willing to bet we see it on eBay soon for north of £500...

 

If only we had a crystal ball...

 

David

[Nearholmer]

John

 

When I said "hold up better than some predict", I wasn't really thinking "maintain present prices or return to the high prices of the recent past", I was thinking more that they are unlikely to "fall through the floor", which is indeed what some predict.

 

Another random thought: economic recession/stringency.

 

The price realised for ordinary (not super-rare and exotic) secondhand models probably acts as a pretty accurate meter of how much disposable income is swilling around in the economy. Currently, it is probably held-up by the "silver-haired pound", chaps in the latter parts of their working lives, or retired, buying "toys".

 

Unless a miracle occurs, that can't last, because, as every prediction says, the following generation is going to be less well-off; in the southern half of England ( I don't know about the Northern half), housing costs are so high that younger railway modellers are probably going to have to get by with a lot fewer purchases, and a lot more making things out of old cereal packets. In fact, housing costs are so high in some areas that they may well need to make themselves actual houses, let alone model ones, from old cereal packets.

 

K