Class 319 Flex for Wales

[black and decker boy]

Cardiff to Swansea electrification now officially cancelled so no need for any electric trains in Wales really as the only wired line will be Cardiff-Newport-Severn Tunnel.

 

Midland Mainline electrification also cancelled north of if Kettering.

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/rail-update-bi-mode-train-technology

[Christopher125]

Cardiff to Swansea electrification now officially cancelled so no need for any electric trains in Wales really as the only wired line will be Cardiff-Newport-Severn Tunnel.

 

It's the Valley Lines that are the driving the need for EMUs, not Swansea-Cardiff.

 

As for the flex units, just seen this Porterbrook promo linked to on wnxx - even they are describing them as tri-mode

 

Edited July 20, 2017 by Christopher125

[black and decker boy]

It's the Valley Lines that are the driving the need for EMUs, not Swansea-Cardiff.

Except that WAG seems to favour taking over the infrastructure & converting the valleys to light rail. No EMUs required then.

 

Even if the new W&B franchisee convinces WAG to go for heavy rail with electrification, I doubt any wires will be up and in use before 2025 given the lack of spare resources in the industry and the needs to avoid a GWML budget farce / EGIP technical cock up. You then need to warm store your fleet of 2nd hand EMU from 2020 at great cost or buy new in 2023.

 

It's certainly not going to happen in the short term.

[Joseph_Pestell]

Cardiff to Swansea electrification now officially cancelled so no need for any electric trains in Wales really as the only wired line will be Cardiff-Newport-Severn Tunnel.

 

Midland Mainline electrification also cancelled north of if Kettering.

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/rail-update-bi-mode-train-technology

 

That's some cynical politics for you! Make an announcement like this after the last PMQs of the session.

 

And dress it up to look like good news rather than an almighty c***-*p.

 

Bi-mode trains are incredibly wasteful, expensive, and use fossil fuels. All the lines in question have more than enough traffic to justify having been electrified decades ago. In days past, a transport minister would have had to resign after an announcement like this.

[rodent279]

To what extent has there been budget overruns? Cynical is my second name, I suspect there may be an amount of blame shifting on the part of politicians here, looking to exploit something in order to hide their own failings.

[corneliuslundie]

Yes, the WA wants light rail but it has also suggested, I believe, that it wants to retain the freight capability on those lines which have recently had freight. This is a whole different ball game, and might make the GWMl electrification look cheap and easy.

On the other hand when told what the bill will be they may change their minds.

I also heard that they want to open/reopen some routes such as Newport to Caerphilly. Pity there is a housing estate in the way.

Mind you why would anyone in Caerphilly want to go to Newport, or vice versa?

Jonathan

[Legend]

That's some cynical politics for you! Make an announcement like this after the last PMQs of the session.

 

And dress it up to look like good news rather than an almighty c***-*p.

 

Bi-mode trains are incredibly wasteful, expensive, and use fossil fuels. All the lines in question have more than enough traffic to justify having been electrified decades ago. In days past, a transport minister would have had to resign after an announcement like this.

I agree on the cynical timing . A bit like the pensions announcement yesterday. However truth is the rail industry has proven incapable of bringing electrification schemes in on time and budget. And we are not talking slight deviations, we are talking huge differences. So why would we throw money at incompetence. Get it right , prove they are capable , then electrify.

[black and decker boy]

To what extent has there been budget overruns? Cynical is my second name, I suspect there may be an amount of blame shifting on the part of politicians here, looking to exploit something in order to hide their own failings.

GWML electrification has gone from £874m budget to current guess of £2.8bn

[Legend]

GWML electrification has gone from £874m budget to current guess of £2.8bn

And that's the problem. With the current set up , going after the Midland Electrification would be like giving a blank cheque . With costing like this it could be £1bn, £2bn or ooops we really screwed up , but no matter the public will pay for it ,£3bn. Really something's got to change.

[phil-b259]

I agree on the cynical timing . A bit like the pensions announcement yesterday. However truth is the rail industry has proven incapable of bringing electrification schemes in on time and budget. And we are not talking slight deviations, we are talking huge differences. So why would we throw money at incompetence. Get it right , prove they are capable , then electrify.

 

However I would contend that a large part of that is the railway industry taking on something they were in not fit state to do at the behest of the politicians. Much as the after effects of an all you can eat buffet, that initial rush of enthusiasm at the prospects of faster cleaner and newer trains the wires would bring has given way indigestion and bloatedness as the lack of proper planning / preparation, a shortages of key skills plus the political imperative to do it all ASAP has taken its toll

 

 

Thus while I do agree that given the current state of affairs the cancelling of electrification plans for the time being is a sensible step, once all current schemes have been finished I would hope that the skills base that has been established at some cost (following its near extinction as a result of the lack of electrification programmes for two decades between 1994 and 2014) would be utilised to resume electrification - starting with various small schemes or places where through running from HS2 allied with the use of Bi-mode trains on the classic network could provide opportunities. This should, in theory allow the lessons of the current projects difficulties to be fully understood and starting small would help schemes to come in on budget, with larger schemes following on again when the basics have been sorted.

Edited July 20, 2017 by phil-b259

[jjb1970]

It'll be rather ironic if we end up seeing the eco movement demanding that we shift to road transport to stop pollution from dirty trains in a few years, oh dear......

 

I've never really been a fan of electro-diesel trains. That's a lot of weight (and flammable fuel) being lugged around the country. As a niche or transitional technology I think it has some merit but it is clearly seen as a long term solution now, which is mad.

 

I see batteries as a viable alternative for outlier lines where wires don't make sense. Not so long ago (and even today) that would also be seen as silly but battery technology has made huge strides.

[Legend]

I've never really been a fan of electro-diesel trains. That's a lot of weight (and flammable fuel) being lugged around the country. As a niche or transitional technology I think it has some merit but it is clearly seen as a long term solution now, which is mad.

Yes far from convinced that these are the solution. Their main benefit is that they are an expedient political out from electrification. But it has to be said with these massive cost over runs and the apparent mismanagement of schemes ,the rail industry has kind of left an open goal for politicians to shoot at.

[corneliuslundie]

I am not sure how much of the cost overrun was caused by the civil servants deciding not to apply for a derogation from the most recent change in OHLE clearances - and the industry itself letting the change to the British Standard happen. Perhaps someone ought to remind the Minister what his predecessor said about the necessity of electrifying for environmental reasons. After all i think they both belong to the same party so it would not be a party political issue.

But yes, thanks to the big gap in electrification schemes we had lost our skills base, made worse by Railtrack deciding it didn't need engineers. So when there was a sudden enthusiasm for electrification there was a relearning curve.

But I have a nasty feeling that our successors.will be saying exactly the same in perhaps 20 years when there is another realisation that electrification is necessary but there has been none for 15 years.

Though perhaps not, as if the predictions about lack of power generation are true and by that time oil is unaffordable/all used up/in Russian hands we shall have had to go back to steam and re-open the mines!

Jonathan