HS2 under review

[Waverley West]

I think the sad thing about the HS2 debate is that real objective intelligent debate has been completely lost. The anti-HS2 side in particular are so desperate to win that they will come up with all manner of arguments to support their case, however spurious and in some cases ridiculous. There are good arguments against HS2 but I think they've been completely submerged in a lot of tosh.

 

Witness the IEA report. What a load of cobblers. But because that particular right-wing think tank has an intelligent sounding name, it gains credibility among many people desperate to latch onto anything anti-HS2, particularly among the UK media always on the look-out for anything that will stir more controversy and sway opinion at their whim and fancy.

[pete_mcfarlane]

There's a lot of focus on WCML capacity, but presumably phase 2 will have a massive impact on the MML and ECML as well which needs to be shouted about more. I went to the Mallard talk in Grantham on Saturday night, and in the Q&A session at the end one of the audience asked if HS2 would mean the end of Intercity trains stopping at Grantham.

 

This was a bit bizarre considering that ECML traffic levels have got to the point where it's possible to justify running HST services just to serve Newark, Grantham and Peterborough. But it shows that there's still a lot of odd ideas floating about which need addressing.

[martin_wynne]

Martin,

 

You've had your fun from somewhere West of the Severn winding up all the HS2 supporters. If we all took your view and waited to see what technology was going to deliver in 5 or 10 or 15 or 20 years time we'd end up waiting forever and never build anything, which if you're against HS2 on principle is what you want. Your objections look to be objections for objections sake, not serious and constructive comments as you haven;t advanced a single serious argument in this debate that IMHO stood up to scrutiny..

 

Hi  Keith,

 

Oh dear, can't you see that I'm actually in favour of HS2? With alongside it a cycle track and a canal or pipeline to bring water from the wet north-west to the dry south-east. With so much disruption in building a new line, let's make the most of it. Anyone who sees rail as the future for UK transport doesn't really have much choice but to support it. As Mike says it's likely to be HS2 or nothing -- if it's cancelled the money will simply vanish.

 

But I need some convincing that it won't actually make matters worse for many parts of Britain. If more and more development is attracted into one narrow corridor, what will be left for everyone else? -- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23028078

 

Martin.

[Hesperus]

Now that is genius

[Waverley West]

 

But I need some convincing that it won't actually make matters worse for many parts of Britain. If more and more development is attracted into one narrow corridor, what will be left for everyone else? -- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23028078

 

 

 

Well, how about electrification of the Welsh valleys, GW main line to Bristol/Swansea/Cardiff, Transpennine, NW/Scotland triangle, Northern Hub, IEP (whatever you may think of it), etc., etc. for a start?

 

It's not just a case of HS2 and nothing else for the rest of the country. After the depressing run-down days of the 70s and 80s, the future of rail transport looks pretty bright across much of the country right now, I'd say.

[Waverley West]

PS I like the idea of a cycle path next to HS2. Plus a network of paths off it of course.

[frobisher]

3D video conferencing on 8ft screens 15 years ago?

 

We ain't seen nothing yet.

With respect, those are gimmicks (and it's not proper 3D either, and isn't going to be anytime soon...), and are not going to bring about a revolution in video conferencing.

[frobisher]

Are you suggesting that call centre workers on minimum wage are going to be commuting to work on HS2? My guess is that everyone working in a call centre in Birmingham is already in Birmingham, and doesn't need HS2 to get there.

No, it was merely an example of a job that should be perfectly possible for remote working but practically is not. Other examples exist. I wasn't the one that chose to place that in Birmingham, on minimum wage, commuting via HS2...

[melmerby]

Off topic:

Why not, whilst building new capacity in the UK, build a tunnel from Scotland to NI (IIRC slightly less distance than the Channel) then all Europe would be connect by modern railway infrastructure. (I know there are gauge differences)

We would need to re-instate and upgrade the "Port Line" however.

 

Keith

Edited September 13, 2013 by melmerby

[frobisher]

Off topic:

Why not, whilst building new capacity in the UK, build a tunnel from Scotland to NI (IIRC slightly less distance than the Channel) then all Europe would be connect by modern railway infrastructure. (I know there are gauge differences)

We would need to re-instate and upgrade the "Port Line" however.

I think the geology is a bit more difficult than the Channel was as well.

 

Whole bunch of stuff here (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_Sea_fixed_crossing). The Hollyhead route would probably make most sense in terms of existing infrastructure.

[The Stationmaster]

Hi  Keith,

 

Oh dear, can't you see that I'm actually in favour of HS2? With alongside it a cycle track and a canal or pipeline to bring water from the wet north-west to the dry south-east. With so much disruption in building a new line, let's make the most of it. Anyone who sees rail as the future for UK transport doesn't really have much choice but to support it. As Mike says it's likely to be HS2 or nothing -- if it's cancelled the money will simply vanish.

 

But I need some convincing that it won't actually make matters worse for many parts of Britain. If more and more development is attracted into one narrow corridor, what will be left for everyone else? -- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23028078

 

Martin.

I don't think it will cause much of a development corridor effect between London and Birmingham Martin because, regrettably in my view, there aren't any intermediate stations.  However on the Leeds 'branch' I think it will be a stimulus to development especially as a consequence of 'Toton Parkway'  (and, again, hence my interest it getting both the southern and northern sections underway simultaneously).

 

While it is - albeit only in some respects - slightly OT the situation with the Welsh Valleys is an interesting example of the way in which transport stimulus has and hasn't worked.  I can remember the A470 dual carriageway from Cardiff to Merthyr being built back in the 1970s and I can recall the Aberdare branch both before it was closed to passenger traffic and since it has reopened, along with a number of other Valleys branches.  All of these projects - plus forthcoming electrification - have provided a transport stimulus but still parts of the Dare Valley remain economically depressed.  I can't exactly divine why but having, 40 years ago, interviewed people from that area for employment I could voice certain conclusions - one of which is that some of them seem to regard a 30-40 minute journey to a place of work as being some sort of imposition which they are not prepared to accept; providing better transport links doesn't really work with folk who aren't prepared to use them.

[Suzie]

I still don't understand why there is not work being done to utilise the midland main line as a north south corridor. Reinstating it as a link to Manchester and Scotland would relieve a fair bit of freight from the west coast, and with it being electrified as well it should be a popular alternative. It should be possible to get something in place before HS2 is complete and the west coast is already overflowing again due to the reduced capacity caused by all the remaining trains being stoppers.

[Fat Controller]

I think the geology is a bit more difficult than the Channel was as well.

 

Whole bunch of stuff here (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_Sea_fixed_crossing). The Hollyhead route would probably make most sense in terms of existing infrastructure.

I recollect there being a rather deep trench somewhere in the way; to compound matters, a lot of 'nasties', (both conventional munitions and chemical ones) were tipped in it after WW2. I'd suggest the volume of traffic would hardly merit the construction either.

[The Stationmaster]

I still don't understand why there is not work being done to utilise the midland main line as a north south corridor. Reinstating it as a link to Manchester and Scotland would relieve a fair bit of freight from the west coast, and with it being electrified as well it should be a popular alternative. It should be possible to get something in place before HS2 is complete and the west coast is already overflowing again due to the reduced capacity caused by all the remaining trains being stoppers.

Well the first problem would be station capacity at the London end for any passenger traffic although I suppose the roof could be taken off St Pancras to create high level platforms or the British Library could be demolished to allow sideways expansion.  The next question would be one of getting the freight onto it - probably not badly situated for Thames-side originating container traffic (subject to gauging issues of course) but more than a bit awkward for Chunnel access, and not serving the West Midlands directly.

 

Getting a decent route to Manchester would undoubtedly upset a few people in view of what would have to be relaid/reopened and equally access to Scotland would require a route through Leeds which is already intensively trafficked from a pathing viewpoint.

[Edwin_m]

The Midland south of Bedford, and certainly south of Luton, is pretty much full.

 

Further north the alignment isn't really suitable for high speeds, and even with tilting trains the WCML and ECML are always going to be quicker to Manchester and Leeds respectively.  So even if the fastest possible trains were provided on the MML few people would use them. 

 

Instead the emerging strategy seems to be to use the MML as a principal route for north-south freight, most leaving at Bedford and running via the Bletchley Flyover.  Haven't we heard that one before somewhere? 

[Suzie]

I was thinking that MML would be a good alternative for Felixstowe and Tilbury freight rather than going via either Willesden or Nuneaten.to places further north than the Midlands. If there is no capacity for freight on the southern end of the MML there will be even less on the much more useful and no wider WCML. I find it hard to believe that Sheffield and the East Midlands will generate sufficient passenger traffic when HS2 arrives (serving Nottingham and Derby) to clog up the MML and having better connections north from the East Midlands will be something that HS2 will not provide fully.

 

I don't think high speed on the MML will be that important, it is the connectivity and freight capacity that will make it useful, even if the freight has to go north via Preston rather than via Settle. It does seem strange that a route with the potential of the MML is just truncated at Sheffield just because it is not quite as fast, when for freight that is an advantage not having to interleave with faster services.

 

Leeds is a growing conurbation, so I suspect there could be some justification for infrastructure improvement beyond just a HS2 terminus.

[Glorious NSE]

Bit pointless for Felixstowe traffic, as that can head cross country straight to the MML without going via London if it were destined for places served from there - and there would be no point in sending the Midlands traffic that way which is broadly half of what goes out (think about it - Felixstowe-London-Leicester-Birmingham is pretty convoluted!)

 

Its a better bet (as Mike says, subject to gauge enhancement) for anything from Tilbury to the North though, and the same will apply for London Gateway when that opens. You might be able to do limited overnight trains from the tunnel via HS1 quite easily, but daytime would have to have a fairly winding route through London...

 

And it's already in the plan as a route to be developed for Soton-Yorkshire/NE services (via Oxford, Bedford)...

[Edwin_m]

The MML north from Leicester and even onwards to Stoke and Crewe via Uttoxeter has indeed been talked about for freight, but I'm not sure where that idea stands at present.  There wouldn't be much of a capacity problem from Syston northwards. 

 

However I don't see much reduction in passenger trains on the critical section south of Leicester.  Leicester itself does not benefit from HS2, except for the possibility of connections towards Leeds which are not relevant here.  Hence there will be pressure to maintain a fast and frequent service between London and Leicester at least as good as today's.  The recent Network Rail document on capacity release also suggests more trains for the stations between Leicester and Bedford.  Furthermore the journey between London and either Derby or Nottingham will only be some 15-20min quicker via HS2* and connecting train from Toton if the connection is really slick, and I think many passengers will continue to use the classic route rather than suffer the inconvenience of a change after about 12min. So I think the best that can be expected is the removal of a fast Sheffield service and replacement with a semi-fast (which might continue to serve Sheffield). 

 

*Aspiration for journey time on existing route: 90min

HS2 journey time: 53min

Connection allowance: 10min

Travel time into Derby/Nottingham: 12-15min

[GoingUnderground]

Off topic:

Why not, whilst building new capacity in the UK, build a tunnel from Scotland to NI (IIRC slightly less distance than the Channel) then all Europe would be connect by modern railway infrastructure. (I know there are gauge differences)

We would need to re-instate and upgrade the "Port Line" however.

 

Keith

 

Much as I think that is a good idea, the business case wouldn't stand up. The potential volume of traffic and hence the benefits will be too low, not to mention the cost of regauging or dual gauging the lines to Belfast and on to Dublin and complying with the Berne Loading gauge on those routes.

 

It is a non-starter financially unless the EU were to make a very major contribution towards the cost on the grounds of greater European integration, but that would go down like a lead balloon in the UK in its current hostile attitude to the EU.

[Christopher125]

I don't think it will cause much of a development corridor effect between London and Birmingham Martin because, regrettably in my view, there aren't any intermediate stations.  However on the Leeds 'branch' I think it will be a stimulus to development especially as a consequence of 'Toton Parkway'  (and, again, hence my interest it getting both the southern and northern sections underway simultaneously)

 

To have intermediate stations would be to reduce capacity for long distance services and extend journey times - there's no need when the WCML already has well sited stations at all the major intermediate conurbations which parkway stops on HS2 could never compete with.

 

Far better to use HS2 for long-distance traffic and concentrate shorter distance semi-fast and commuter traffic on the WCML - this would still see substantially faster journey times on the dominant passenger flows, increase frequencies and capacity while freeing up capacity on the slow lines.

 

Chris

[pete_mcfarlane]

Furthermore the journey between London and either Derby or Nottingham will only be some 15-20min quicker via HS2* and connecting train from Toton if the connection is really slick, and I think many passengers will continue to use the classic route rather than suffer the inconvenience of a change after about 12min. 

Nottingham is an oddly shaped city, with the city centre (and main railway station) in the bottom eastern corner and a vast suburban sprawl to the North and West. This is presumably why some of the suburban stations (Beeston and Long Eaton) have expresses to London, to avoid people having to drive in to the city centre. So Toton will actually be quite convenient for a lot of the population.

[Edwin_m]

That is true and the station at Toton is equally accessible from Derby and Nottingham, so it is a logical place to put it given that a station in central Nottingham was never really on the cards.  The tram line will almost certainly also be extended to provide better access to those western suburbs as well as key destinations such as the University. 

 

However the tram line is too far for access to central Nottingham (about 16 stops) and the risk is that the Toton station will be much more accessible by car than by public transport.  As well as potentially increasing road traffic and weakening the public transport network, a parkway with no city centre station runs the risk of sucking prosperity out of the area (affluent people can drive to Toton and go to London) rather than bringing it in (tourists and business visitors arriving in the outer suburbs and facing a difficult journey into the centre).  Hence I believe there need to be both excellent heavy rail connections into Derby and Nottingham, and a similar level of speed and frequency maintained to London on the classic network. 

[GoingUnderground]

Nottingham is an oddly shaped city, with the city centre (and main railway station) in the bottom eastern corner and a vast suburban sprawl to the North and West. This is presumably why some of the suburban stations (Beeston and Long Eaton) have expresses to London, to avoid people having to drive in to the city centre. So Toton will actually be quite convenient for a lot of the population.

But not for those, like me, living to the east of Nottingham. I strongly support HS2 on principle even though I will probably, if I live that long and stay in the present area, still use the ECML as with the recent dualling of the A46 I can get to Newark in 20-25 mins, which is faster than I can to Toton, 40-45 mins by car. However we do have a local station, on the Nottingham-Lincoln line and if more frequent services from there also went to Toton for connection with HS2 then I would be an HS2 user, and would leave the car in the garage.

[pete_mcfarlane]

You'd probably find that it's still better to drive to Newark, as any post-HS2 ECML timetable would have more services stopping there. Driving to Newark or Grantham seems to be pretty common on the eastern side of Nottingham. 

[Kris]

I see that labour are now saying that they would be likely to scrap HS2. I hope that this does not happen as it would be a negative backward step to the detriment of the country.