The impact of Wishlistery

[Ozexpatriate]

<snip>... if ... the poll is on the 'net' there is uncontrolled voting and it could well be dominated by a small number of people voting early & often.

 

Or worse a society or similiar encouraging all their members to vote.

It's possible to take issue with a lot of the specifics regarding on-line polls. For the larger ones though, some effort is taken to mitigate the vote early, vote often problem.

 

Is there really a problem with like-minded people organizing their vote? It is their perogative to list their preference and if a group of people (like say, north eastern fans) clubbed together to follow a particular preference order I don't see a problem.

 

While I'm sure that polls provide some insight into what people might prefer, they're not definitive, based on a legion of issues. The results are interesting to me and I look at wishlisting and the polls as 'mostly for fun'.

 

While it seems that many of the limited production runs seem to have sold well to date, how long before someone gets caught out by only selling a fraction of the run?

Surely, this is the point of a limited production run. Anticipated lower volume and hiigher prices are set to minimize the impact of a 'miss'.

[Ozexpatriate]

... I'd like to see a way that a focus on small industrial locomotives could result in more nice ones being made.

And here you are poking at an aspect of the situation that interests me.

 

...it is possible that a small Manning Wardle, Leeds, Barclay, whatever, could also succeed as a model subject.

 

...which type would offer the widest possible application: numerous, widely distributed around the UK, ideally used in at least a couple of industries that offer 'popular' potential for modelling.

 

How do we get some effective focus on that?

This question interests me a lot. We did have a thread on this topic a while back, in a previous version or RMweb - I'm not sure how to search for it, or I'd link to it here. Like most threads it started with a lot of enthusiasm but interest waned before any consensus emerged beyond the general desirability for more industrial locomotives.

 

Hornby and Bachmann offer a handful of small locomotives that are not necessarily accurate and offered in a rainbow of fictional liveries. (There's nothing wrong with this, but I think there's interest in something better.)

 

I'd offer the following criteria for a new industrial locomotive

1. Reasonably accurate model, based on a real prototype

2. Be designed to run as well as possible (hauling and slow speed running) given limitations of size and weight.

3. Be offered in accurate liveries

 

The recent Sentinel meets all these criteria, though I might offer an additional one:

4. Plus perhaps a fictional 'plain' livery (perhaps weathered black).

 

I don't want to hijack this thread by offering suggestions - that's a different topic.

 

In keeping with the thread topic, I would suggest that except for the rather excellent small locomotives being commissioned by MR and Kernow, wishlisting has not resulted in any consensus around industrial locomotives. I can't think of a process (besides focused polling) to identify candidates that people would want.

[coachmann]

One impact of wishlisting that springs to mind was the LNER Class 04 2-8-0. I also remember seeing the LMS Beyer Garratt mentioned in Hornby Magazine and that is being done as a special by Hattons. But I don't recall the Thompson L1 being wishlisted and yet someone at Hornby clearly thought it was a good idea, and how right they were. Everyone in the business of "producing" should have a well-practiced nose for what will sell without wishlists.

 

Calls for the J15 0-6-0 keep surfacing and yet I wouldn't place money on it being a good enough seller for the big firms like Hornby and Bachmann even though I cannot think of one LNER 0-6-0 that would be a good bet. However, I can visualize a J15 in the sharply focussed world of commisions and limited editions. Same with the Midland 0-4-4T and LNWR Coal Tank 0-6-2T. In otherwords, despite there being over 130 years of untapped steam locomotives, it must be a hard call now for the Big Two companies.

[Ozexpatriate]

Everyone in the business of "producing" should have a well-practiced nose for what will sell without wishlists.

Indeed they should. Long may they do so.

[gc4946]

The LMS Garratt scored low in wishlists and polls, yet look at how much interest that's been generated once Hattons announced their plans.

[Kris]

The LMS Garratt scored low in wishlists and polls, yet look at how much interest that's been generated once Hattons announced their plans.

I suspect that many people didn't put this on a wish list as they had / have other locos that they rated higher up on their personal list of desire. That said once announced these people have reassessed what they would like and have decided that a garrett would be rather nice. This has certainly been my way of thinking for some items I have purchased in the past (not the garrett though).

[The Stationmaster]

The LMS Garratt scored low in wishlists and polls, yet look at how much interest that's been generated once Hattons announced their plans.

'Interest' is one thing thing - pre-orders and then finally actual sales are the real arbiter. All sorts of things would, I'm sure, create a lot of interest/postings on the 'net/letters to mags etc but actual sales are more likely to depend on price and perceived realism/quality of the model when it actually arrives; a couple of poor reviews and a section of the market is likely to be turned off, 'great' reviews and sales will rise. And in any case just look at the MREMag 2011 poll - the LMS Garratt did indeed score low but the entire poll attracted only 950 voters - not enough people in total to justify a run of a commissioned loco or vehicle let alone point to a major winner and in any case quite possibly an unrealistic sample of the potential market.

 

Iconic locos will no doubt always stand a good chance in the market whatever the polls say - it's just a matter of finding the right iconic loco/unit and the feedback to select that comes from a much wider spectrum of market research. Hattons seem to have hit the right spot with the Metrovick Co-Bo/Class 28 and no doubt several others in the pipeline should do quite well (one hopes).

[great northern]

All right, I declare a personal interest here, as I started the LNER consensus thread some years ago. We have already got some of the things I finally submitted to the manufacturers, and we now see locos and rolling stock beiing announced which would have been unthinkable not long ago. A structured and sensible approach IMO will get results. I know Simon Kohler is sick of the " you should produce a *******it would sell in shed loads" approach, for which read " I want one, unless I can find something wrong when it appears, so my wallet will remain firmly shut". A rational and sensible approach will at least be considered. Don't assume the manufacturers know everything- I've had thanks for bringing certain locos to their attention, even if they haven't yet appeared.

 

If we can put aside personal preference, and argue for something which has merit, and which is likely to make a profit for whoever takes the risk on it, we may get our reward later when the "knock on" effect kicks in. An LNER 0.6.0 is a particularly valid example. Many people want one, or more, but which one? We decided long ago that the J15 had the most going for it. It's not what everyone wants, but if we keep fragmenting the market the likelihood is we get nothing. Get one produced, support it and buy it in good numbers, and the door will be at least ajar when we ask for another one. Like Pennine I despair when a sensible and potentially valuable thread like this is turned into yet another unstructured wish list within a few posts.

[S.A.C Martin]

Calls for the J15 0-6-0 keep surfacing and yet I wouldn't place money on it being a good enough seller for the big firms like Hornby and Bachmann even though I cannot think of one LNER 0-6-0 that would be a good bet.

 

The Gresley J6. Literally everywhere on the system, can come in a variety of styles, including cab, and in those all important green and lined liveries too.

[Pennine MC]

I suspect that many people didn't put [the LMS Garratt] on a wish list as they had / have other locos that they rated higher up on their personal list of desire. That said once announced these people have reassessed what they would like and have decided that a garrett would be rather nice. This has certainly been my way of thinking for some items I have purchased in the past (not the garrett though).

 

I wonder also if many people didnt put it on because they were actually being Sensible Sidneys, and didnt think it had a cat in hell's chance? I do agree that interest can manifest itself once an announcement is made - I'd never have wishlisted Kestrel for instance, but I pricked my ears up once it became reality.

[Invicta]

 

If we can put aside personal preference, and argue for something which has merit, and which is likely to make a profit for whoever takes the risk on it, we may get our reward later when the "knock on" effect kicks in. An LNER 0.6.0 is a particularly valid example. Many people want one, or more, but which one? We decided long ago that the J15 had the most going for it. It's not what everyone wants, but if we keep fragmenting the market the likelihood is we get nothing. Get one produced, support it and buy it in good numbers, and the door will be at least ajar when we ask for another one. Like Pennine I despair when a sensible and potentially valuable thread like this is turned into yet another unstructured wish list within a few posts.

 

So would a way ahead be properly focused and structured wishlisting?- I'm thinking of something like the LNER consensus thread, with say one dedicated thread for each company/region, plus modern-era, Industrials etc, to identify those items which have a potentially sound business case but might have slipped under the radar for the manufacturers, without the 'you should make a *******- it'll sell in shed loads- I'd buy at least x' approach

 

Even though it was of fairly academic interest to me as a non-LNER modeller, I participated in the LNER Consensus thread (and didn't someone have a shot at a Scottish equivalent as well?) not least because it was a structured and sensible way of looking at the question

[great northern]

 

I wonder also if many people didnt put it on because they were actually being Sensible Sidneys, and didnt think it had a cat in hell's chance? I do agree that interest can manifest itself once an announcement is made - I'd never have wishlisted Kestrel for instance, but I pricked my ears up once it became reality.

 

Very good point Ian, and I must hold my hands up and say that I was constantly discouraging flights of fancy on the LNER thread. My perception was that one had to go for the most likely first, but at that time the limited edition/ model shop sponsored item was almost unheard of. Things are very different now, and I think we need to approach the problem in two distinctly different ways.

 

I still believe that in the case of most models the rational and well argued tack is the correct one to take, but we also now need to look at the likes of the Garrett, Falcon Lion etc and ask why they have appeared. I did start a thread some time ago titled "In search of icons" but soon gave up when it became yet another wish list. I reckon it wasn't too far off though, as it seems that the iconic is now perceived to be marketable. That may well be because it is model shops who are promoting them. Whatever the reason, we now I think have a very interesting, though potentially frustrating scenario in which we see models emerging from both ends of the spectrum, but not the (to some of us) essential workhorses in between. So we now have Beattie well tanks, Metrovick Co-Bo's and other locos that were extremely restricted in their areas of operation, and in the case of some diesel prototypes had a very short life span. They don't fit my original argument at all, but it seems clear that a suffcient number of people who don't model for example Bodmin to Wadebridge are buying them. If this first tranche of limited editions is financially viable, what will the second tranche bring? Really they break all the rules when i think about it further, as they aren't by any means a cheap option either. So, if we want the mundane, the maids of all work, the stuff that was seen every day all over the country, where do we now look? Bachmann have helpfully published their criteria for choosing new models, and a preserved example is very high on their list. So if they look at an LNER 0.6.0, as they may well do to follow up the LMS and Southern ones that are on their way, it must surely be almost inevitable that they will go for one which they can still examine and measure up. That immediately rules out a J6, however prominently it has figured in the published wish lists.

 

So do we now adopt a new approach? Do we ask the major manufacturers for that which is logically likely to interest them, given their declared criteria, and try to persuade the "fringe" suppliers to give us some mundane stuff, rather than the limited but iconic prototypes we have so far seen. We do live in interesting times, and goodness knows what appears next, unless the world economy goes completely **** up and brings a halt to the whole thing for the time being. More icons anyone?

[RCAR6015]

Re the ex - Airfix 57ft LMS surburban coaches, quite a few years ago was it not announced that the tooling for these items had been destroyed at a fire that occured at the old Dapol factory when it was located in Cheshire and when the company was owned by its original founder - David ( sorry cant remember his surname )

[The Stationmaster]

I think the 'commissioners' - as I call them - have thus far hit on what they think are icons with reasonable success although they clearly have very different methods of doing so. But what these people need, which we have to bear in mind, is something that will sell quickly enough in sufficient quantities to cover their investment with a production run of 1,000 or fewer items. Whatever they make, be it iconic or mundane, it will inevitably have to fit that investment/return profile or the company could go bust.

 

Some of the larger manufacturers are I suspect looking at their market in a similar way, especially in the current financial situation, and they too want to clear their investment costs with the first production run. This translates into price and that must be marketable to get the investment back. Bachmann seem to understand this with their pricing of 0-6-0 size locos while Hornby's approach seems to take a different tack. Be there differences or not what 'we' come up with has to fit a financial situation as well as a perceived market demand.

 

But there is also a further angle to the finance thing and that is research costs. In the case of the commissioners they are not employing someone to do that work (some might call it fun) for them and the cost is minimal or simply comes out of their total business overheads. While they are certainly not amateurish in their approach they are not carrying an R&D cost in the same way as, say, Hornby would appear to. So perhaps part of the answer is not just to offer a prototype as 'suitable and we think the market is' but to offer also to give the manufacturer support and assistance with research? I don't want to see jobs cut as a result but adding a well informed impetus and criticality, plus information, in the R&D stage could help the financial situation for a finished model and build on some of what already goes on.

[Karhedron]

Re the ex - Airfix 57ft LMS surburban coaches, quite a few years ago was it not announced that the tooling for these items had been destroyed at a fire that occured at the old Dapol factory when it was located in Cheshire and when the company was owned by its original founder - David ( sorry cant remember his surname )

Yes, Dapol recently found them lurking at the cupboard. The pictures I posted were (apparently) a new batch and Dapol are considering releasing them.

[RCAR6015]

Yes, Dapol recently found them lurking at the cupboard. The pictures I posted were (apparently) a new batch and Dapol are considering releasing them.

So the original tooling was not destroyed?

[S.A.C Martin]

So the original tooling was not destroyed?

 

Hence the use of the word "yes" in the previous answer to your question! as in "yes, they were not destroyed".

[Karhedron]

Here is Dapol's original post on FaceBook from over the summer. Not much info.

 

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Dapol-Ltd/214563285228094#!/photo.php?fbid=238293902855032&set=a.219867508031005.63540.214563285228094&type=1&theater

[45568]

[ Bachmann have helpfully published their criteria for choosing new models, and a preserved example is very high on their list. So if they look at an LNER 0.6.0, as they may well do to follow up the LMS and Southern ones that are on their way, it must surely be almost inevitable that they will go for one which they can still examine and measure up. That immediately rules out a J6, however prominently it has figured in the published wish lists.] quote.

 

Yet Bachmann chose the LMS 3F, and there is no preserved example, so let's not write off that J6 yet!

Cheers, Peter C.

[Guest Phil]

I know Simon Kohler is sick of the " you should produce a *******it would sell in shed loads" approach, for which read " I want one, unless I can find something wrong when it appears, so my wallet will remain firmly shut". A rational and sensible approach will at least be considered. Don't assume the manufacturers know everything- I've had thanks for bringing certain locos to their attention, even if they haven't yet appeared.

 

With the deepest respect to Simon Kohler and his competitors that is fine. They are the experts at knowing how the pounds shillings and pence can be converted into plastic mouldings and metal castings which convert back into the folding stuff. But if they want to sell large quantities of product it has to be something the consumer wants to buy, for them to pay the shareholders' dividends. Hornby are fortunate in the one respect that consumers are familiar with the name and the associateable red boxes. (yes I know it is not a real word !!). Producing models that look like their prototypes is a pretty useful way of being successful but many consumers probably are willing to sacrifice accuracy over desirability.

I never bought a Heljan Brush Four because I couldn't live with the width, just the same as I never bought a Lima 40 because the cab windows, nose etc didn't look right to me. Perhaps I am too much of a pedant,and probably fortunately in the minority, but the manufacturers have to do the spadework to get their products right.

 

If we can put aside personal preference, and argue for something which has merit, and which is likely to make a profit for whoever takes the risk on it, we may get our reward later when the "knock on" effect kicks in. An LNER 0-6-0 is a particularly valid example. Many people want one, or more, but which one? We decided long ago that the J15 had the most going for it. It's not what everyone wants, but if we keep fragmenting the market the likelihood is we get nothing. Get one produced, support it and buy it in good numbers, and the door will be at least ajar when we ask for another one.

 

I must admit that IMHO an LNER 0-6-0 has to be a surefire seller in the way I am sure the Bachmann 3F will when it is released, but I am not sure it would fit into the Hornby portfolio very easily. Again, my own opinion is that Hornby produce the "big wheelers" rather well, and are able to apply their commensurate price tags. When it comes to the smaller locos, does the Hornby pricetag scare a section of consumers away ? It does me. There are only five Hornby locos in my collection, four because I really wanted them. I may be in the minority but I don't spontaneously buy Hornby stuff unless I really do have a gap for it in my roster, and it does look like it should.

 

Referring to 4mm scale, the last few years announcements by Bachmann of "common or garden" prototypes is a step in the right direction IMHO. This leads me to speculate whether sales of Hornby's "southern 0-6-0" might have been greater with the choice of a more "conventional" prototype instead of the Q1, which I believe lingered on modelshop shelves in numbers. The new SE&CR 0-6-0 from Bachmann will be an interesting example to compare.

 

Like Pennine I despair when a sensible and potentially valuable thread like this is turned into yet another unstructured wish list within a few posts.

 

I understand your despair Great Northern, and Pennine, but this is the nature of the beast. Offer a bunch of people a place to write their wishlists and, by golly, they will. If this thread didn't incorporate any wishlistery - given it's title, within a few posts, I'd have been very surprised.