Butler Henderson Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Whatever they need to drop the quarterly release predictions, the fact that many 1st quarter items every year recently have been very delayed shows that it cannot be working, as given shipping times the first quarter releases should have been in production or ready for production when the catalogue is published. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozexpatriate Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Again, as Hornby are having to push production back into 2014 this will PRESUMABLY affect the number of new models to be announced for 2014. Maybe, maybe not. Announcements and delivery are quite separate parts of the business. But I do agree with you in that this is very bad news for Hornby's likely turn-over / revenues in 2013. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeharvey22 Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Wherever we look in the British model car industry it seems that capacity for manufacture is scarce and at a premium price in China. Sometimes others purchase that capacity because they can afford a higher manufacturing cost input in their continental selling price levels, and the capacity for the UK is then not readily available. Oxford Diecast seem to have just got a firmer grip on their manufacturing and have had a recent catch up on their product backlog. Some of Bachmann's Scenecraft buses announced over 4 years ago have been seen in preproduction form only. Corgi Diecast is perennially behind its planned delivery timetable. But the German based Minichamps diecast cars' list appears to have a strong fiction element to it with many long announced items not yet seen. Typically model trains (especially locomotives) call for a greater level of precision in manufacture and assembly, and there is not enough of that available right now in China. Transferring to another low wage economy is on the cards. At least Hornby have been upfront about sharing the impact of this manufacturing scenario on their plans. Mike Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold Budgie Posted July 10, 2013 RMweb Gold Share Posted July 10, 2013 I would note that many of the revised delivery dates that I have been indicated by Hattons are for Early January 2014. That means they will not be available for the (supposedly) very important Xmas selling period. (Although, PRESUMABLY, slots that enable a delivery in time for Xmas sales would be at a premium.) The emails I received from Hattons say Our latest information from the supplier suggests this item will arrive with us on or after Wednesday 1st January 2014 To me that does not imply delivery in early January 2014. Rather, it implies that delivery is some time in 2014, which could be January, but it equally could be June, or even December 2014. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
34theletterbetweenB&D Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 No, you prove that manufacturing model trains is viable if you do it in China, but not viable if you do in in Italy. Lima group went bust. All significant manufacturing for UK RTR model railway market in China. ViTrains going nowhere. Your turn, answer my challenge to your claim that the Lima items now available from Hornby are twice the price. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold The Stationmaster Posted July 10, 2013 RMweb Gold Share Posted July 10, 2013 The emails I received from Hattons say To me that does not imply delivery in early January 2014. Rather, it implies that delivery is some time in 2014, which could be January, but it equally could be June, or even December 2014. I think you're right judging by their past performance. Although Hornby seems to be actually tackling the problem this time instead of just saying they're dealing with it they obviously face something of an uphill task getting their new vendors underway and up to speed. And this year is seeing a planned major change in the balance of supplies from various factories with one of them increasing their share fourfold while others are doubling and some are, obviously, reducing considerably. All of this must present a considerable logistic challenge apart from anything else and is clearly something which needs close management attention at a senior level - which has now been injected. Whether all of this will come right by November/December (to ensure supplies reach the UK in January) must surely be a very open issue at this stage - don't forget that some of the items deferred from 2012 to 2013 weren't even promised until 2nd Quarter this year and have still not arrived while others supposedly coming into marketplace in December have dribbled in only in limited numbers with full delivery not expected until next month. I'm not knocking Hornby - they are now clearly trying to do something about the problem but it seems to me ludicrous for a retailer to suggest a possible January arrival for items when not even Hornby have, it appears, forecast a date. I think the accuracy of 'Now Expected in 2014' would be far more sensible than implying, even with a caveat, a particular month and could mislead people - causing yet more possible irritation among end customers. Overall however I think that yet again we have to think of retailers and do our best to support them as the cash flow benefits of new releases look like again being lost. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium 7013 Posted July 11, 2013 RMweb Premium Share Posted July 11, 2013 On or after 1st of January or the 1st of any month is ridiculous as it gives a false expectation that it is going to be soon after the1st when in reality like Stationmaster points out it could be any time in the year after the 1st of that month. I am not holding my breath waiting for the Hatton Garratt to be available in November. Therefore can we put out a request to retailers not to give us buyers false expectations, just confirmed dates, that way it would cut down on some of the Ire that gets vented on this site in particular. If I were a retailer I would state YGIAGAM! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
34theletterbetweenB&D Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 One factor we don't have to guess at is Chinese new year celebrations, which happen in spring (Northern hemisphere). This is the national holiday, and also the time when the new hires join when the factories reopen - and the annual staff turn over in these light assembly ops is very large - which means a large proportion of the workforce has to be trained to reach the required standard. So if it isn't shipped ahead of this holiday, there is quite a delay before production is back in full swing, with consequent delays. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purley Oaks Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Rails of Sheffield email advises a long list of Hornby 2013 products deferred until 2014 including R3171 Cock O' the North, which is a shame considering the amount of interest. Also the 1960s Brighton Belle - they still have to get the non Third Class coaches for those, too, which weren't in the catalogue Many more steam/diesel locos, coaches and wagons repeating Andy's list in the first post Mal Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold Budgie Posted July 11, 2013 RMweb Gold Share Posted July 11, 2013 Rails of Sheffield email advises a long list of Hornby 2013 products deferred until 2014 including R3171 Cock O' the North, which is a shame considering the amount of interest. Also the 1960s Brighton Belle - they still have to get the non Third Class coaches for those, too, which weren't in the catalogue Many more steam/diesel locos, coaches and wagons repeating Andy's list in the first post Mal I don't understand this post. Third class didn't exist in the 1960s, having been renamed as second class in 1956. In spite of this, Hornby erroneously refers to the second class Brighton Belle coaches in the 1960s set as third class. The 1960s Brighton Belle is in the 2013 catalogue: R3184 (motor coaches) appears on page 57 R4582 (the other three coaches, including the first-class coaches) appears on both pages 57 and 76. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Electrostar Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 I wonder how the delays will affect the model railway magazines. Will Bachmann and other manufacturers get more space, with new liveries of existing models given more exposure than normal to compensate for the lack of new models rolling off the production line? Might the railway press have to increase the number of non-news/reviews pages or reduce pagination? Will shops take out larger adverts or will a reduction in supply hit their bottom line? Will Hornby itself pull back on print advertising this year? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purley Oaks Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 I don't understand this post. Third class didn't exist in the 1960s, having been renamed as second class in 1956. In spite of this, Hornby erroneously refers to the second class Brighton Belle coaches in the 1960s set as third class. The 1960s Brighton Belle is in the 2013 catalogue: R3184 (motor coaches) appears on page 57 R4582 (the other three coaches, including the first-class coaches) appears on both pages 57 and 76. Hi Budgie Exactly my point - the 1960s Brighton Belle Pullman Car Pack includes a Third Class car No.87 Mal Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold Budgie Posted July 12, 2013 RMweb Gold Share Posted July 12, 2013 Hi Budgie Exactly my point - the 1960s Brighton Belle Pullman Car Pack includes a Third Class car No.87 Mal Hmmm. It seems to me that that illustration is a mock-up, and the coach itself will say "Car No. 87" without the words "Third Class" when it is eventually released (I hope so, anyway, as I have one on order). The motor coach pictures do not say "Third Class", and I'm surprised they didn't think to remove those words from the second-class trailer. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
dibber25 Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 I wonder how the delays will affect the model railway magazines. Will Bachmann and other manufacturers get more space, with new liveries of existing models given more exposure than normal to compensate for the lack of new models rolling off the production line? Might the railway press have to increase the number of non-news/reviews pages or reduce pagination? Will shops take out larger adverts or will a reduction in supply hit their bottom line? Will Hornby itself pull back on print advertising this year? I understand that, as a general principle, re-liveries are not being supplied to magazines for review purposes by the major manufacturers, nor have they been for a couple of years. Those magazines which review re-liveries are doing their own sourcing. Where newly-tooled models are concerned, review samples have been subject to the same vagaries of delivery as the production models have been to retailers. We're delighted when samples turn up but we seldom know what's coming or when, until we get a phone call or e-mail telling us to look out for a package. It's generally known in the office as 'Christmas is here'. Paginations vary according to many factors but the number of review models is not one of them. CHRIS LEIGH Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold Ian Hargrave Posted July 12, 2013 RMweb Gold Share Posted July 12, 2013 A fear that I have is that the increasing time-span of delay upon delay causing a drought of new releases.......with both major players ....will cause an inevitable after-shock with the retail trade.The situation is precarious enough as it now stands.The name of the game is turnover. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold The Stationmaster Posted July 12, 2013 RMweb Gold Share Posted July 12, 2013 A fear that I have is that the increasing time-span of delay upon delay causing a drought of new releases.......with both major players ....will cause an inevitable after-shock with the retail trade.The situation is precarious enough as it now stands.The name of the game is turnover. I suspect you might have used the wrong tense Ian. The reappearance of availability for a few previously 'sold out to the trade' models suggests that some retailers are either having difficulty paying their bills or are up to their credit limit and don't have the cash flow to get back inside it at the opportune moment. I know retailers have expressed concern due to late delivery or, in the case of Hornby reductions of the quantity they ordered, and that too can affect business plans. New (to market) r-t-r models are what produce good sales figures for many retailers, which can help to keep a business in a healthy financial state. It doesn't - in some respects - matter how good a retailer's financial and business planning is if product does not arrive when planned or even in the same financial year. While many of us are prepared to wait for our 'local' retailers to receive stock it can also become a problem for some end purchasers if, as is now happening, locos expected in the run up to, say, Christmas in fact arrive in the following summer when money is needed for other things. I'm in the fortunate position of having money put aside, and kept aside, for various items but many people are simply not able to do that or their circumstances unexpectedly change. But at least it looks as if one Hornby loco I had on order last year and which was then 'deferred' has avoided this year's cull. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butler Henderson Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Looking at the full list on Hornbys web site its obviously a manufacturing issue as listed as postponed till next year are things like R044 switch and R618 uncoupling ramp! http://www.Hornby.com/news/2013-product-delays-and-modelzone-announcement/ Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
flapland Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 Could cash flow also be part of the issue as a lot of the delayed items are just new liveries on exiting tooling. Also whats the current story in Hornby's other ranges such as Airfix, is that suffering from delays. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium 7013 Posted July 14, 2013 RMweb Premium Share Posted July 14, 2013 Even if there were cash flow problems we would not hear about it until Hornby went bust, and I don't think that's on the cards. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
rembrow Posted July 14, 2013 Share Posted July 14, 2013 I don't know if anyone else has noticed, but within the list of delayed wagons are 10 that were announced only 11 days earlier as having price reductions, that is about half of the wagons announced with price reductions. I have to wonder whether Hornby were aware of the likely delays when they posted the price changes as it seems to be less than joined up thinking, or an attempt to get good news out before bad news. On a more serious note I agree completely with Ian Hargrave in Post 66 about the potential effect on the viability of independent retailers. I'm lucky in having 2 family run railway model shops in towns each side of me, one of which I've used for 29 years. Both are very concerned about the lack of Hornby product, and that was before this latest announcement. In one case the owner told me that for several months the level of Hornby deliveries to him had been in the low £ hundreds instead of the average previously of over £ thousand. This was not a credit issue, it was due to lack of product that would sell. The other shop owner told me he was running out of Hornby locomotives as saleable replacements were not available. Hornby products are still the mainstay of most independent model shops so there is a strong risk that this ongoing issue will adversely affect the retail trade moreso than the effect of the current economic downturn. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold Ian Hargrave Posted July 14, 2013 RMweb Gold Share Posted July 14, 2013 Which is direct evidence of the current situation in my post 66 above....as Mike says (67)....it has already happened. Old Mother Hubbard...not you,Graham....eat your heart out ! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium 7013 Posted July 14, 2013 RMweb Premium Share Posted July 14, 2013 As well as the effect on the retailers it will eventually have an effect on the customer. Hornby's support in this country and amongst our hobby is legendary, however look at how many famous names are just memories. I am not scaremongering but there is only so much patience people will have before redirecting their money to products that are available and delivery within a reasonable time frame is achievable. I believe we are all willing to wait and hope that Hornby get everything sorted out, but I don't believe retailers and customers will wait forever. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold The Stationmaster Posted July 14, 2013 RMweb Gold Share Posted July 14, 2013 As well as the effect on the retailers it will eventually have an effect on the customer. Hornby's support in this country and amongst our hobby is legendary, however look at how many famous names are just memories. I am not scaremongering but there is only so much patience people will have before redirecting their money to products that are available and delivery within a reasonable time frame is achievable. I believe we are all willing to wait and hope that Hornby get everything sorted out, but I don't believe retailers and customers will wait forever. There is more than a little sense in what you say but people have been remarkably tolerant up to now although that undoubtedly owes more that a hint to the items which Hornby has promised to introduce, e.g. there aren't exactly any other GW 8 coupled tank engines in town so if we want those we won't go elsewhere but will wait. The 'trainset/toyshop' market works in a slightly differenet way and while many buyers in that area 'want the latest' there might be other things in the Hornby range which can act as substitutes. But there is part of the 'railway modelling' market who could well, and have, divert their money elsewhere so in that respect you're right. I think the real danger comes in the degree of success Hornby's latest action has in getting the supply situation sorted; personallyI never took much notice of the Martin era platitudes to shareholders because there never seemed to be any evidence of backing it with organisational provision or explained management effort. This time it's different and part of the 'Canham promise' includes appointing a manager to tackle this issue - we can but hope he succeeds because if he doesn't the company will lose real credibility in the marketplace to follow that it has already lost with many retailers. The crunch will start to come when retailers begin to steer buyers away from Hornby - and continuing non-delivery or under delivery could lead to that (I hope it won't). Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Premium 7013 Posted July 14, 2013 RMweb Premium Share Posted July 14, 2013 Excellent summary Mike, I will forgive Hornby anything if my 2-8-2T arrives in good condition. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RMweb Gold Ian Hargrave Posted July 15, 2013 RMweb Gold Share Posted July 15, 2013 Right,Mike.......if there are any retailers left to face the crunch......please let there be light at the end of this particular tunnel. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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