Hornby Interim Results - to September 2013

[coachmann]

Assuming you were going to put separate vertical handrails on the cab rear edges of the 'Star' -

How would you do it? What material would you use? You need to look closely at how they are attached on the real thing to see the problem (no handrail 'knobs', no bent handrail on a bracket, just a butt joint to a tiny metal plate). 

With the shape and position of the handrail mounting brackets, the only way I can see of doing it successfully would be a brass cab side and a soldered handrail. To mount a separate wire or plastic handrail in a manner approaching that of the real thing would be nigh-on impossible on a plastic cab, surely? The small horizontal handrails could, indeed, have been separate, but I think that the rear handrails are simply a pragmatic treatment of a subject which would be both tricky to do and vulnerable when done. Manufacturers are influenced by high failure rates during assembly - smokebox door darts must suffer similarly. Now, one could leave such bits off, put them in a bag and leave the customer to fit them, but Vi-Trains did that with their Class 47 and it wasn't popular with customers (understatement)

CHRIS LEIGH

This is the same kind of handrail as on the GCR tender as supplied with Bachmann's D11/1 in that the top of the stantion holder curves outwards......It is a case of a moulded handrail makes perfect sense and Bachmann took that course. It is strenthened at the rear and yet has daylight behind it too. Hornby could have done it this way on its 'Star'. As Dibbers points out, this particular type of handrail is not suited to wire and knobs on plastic RTR.

 

Smokebox darts are a different matter.  All it takes is to put a peg in a hole with glue....job done. In fact a square peg in a square hole would make the dart self aligning if the Chinese assembler knows the inside peg is always at the bottom. In contrast removing a moulded dart leaves a blemish.

[robmcg]

Perhaps the best plastic technology designers and die-makers are thin on the ground?

[coachmann]

Yes, but it was a market worth tapping because a cheap and capable manufacturing facility became available that meant that all sorts of detail that would have been hopelessely uneconomic to include on a UK made item was suddenly possible when sourced from China.  Suddently? Bachmann production moved to China in 1992. Mainline and Replica Railways etc were producing scale models years before. Hornby was merely a late starter.

 

 

[robmcg]

Final report is now on the Hornby website. It's much easier to read.

 

It might be just my settings under tools  manage add-ons  and so on but this site won't run with IE7  requiring permission to run and then crashing the computer     Zeon Corporation requires permission etc  =  crash

 

Could you offer any other way to view the Hornby interim result pdf ?

[Legend]

Hornby is always in the difficult position of riding two horses - it does the lion's share of its business in train sets and the toy market but it also has a foot heavily in the scale model market, having made a steady progression in that direction since at least the 1980s. We should not be surprised if, at times, there is a blurring of the distinction between the two markets in terms of the details of models. Not so many years ago we'd have been happy that a spoked bogie wheel actually had spokes. If we were into counting spokes, we'd have changed the wheels without a second thought. Sorry, but I think that, if we want ready to run models, we're going to have to return to the mind-set that says, I don't like that particular feature, but the model is good overall, so I'll change that feature, I'll put on wire handrails and brass plates and do a bit of repainting because I want that loco and it's the only way I can have it without building it myself. Cost-in the kit and your time building it and ready-to-run with a bit of personal tweaking is still way less expensive.

CHRIS LEIGH

Sorry to disagree with such an authority in the model railway world but , with respect, I really can't let this go past.

 

It is not difficult to ride two horses you just need two riders that know their horses well. You can have a low spec range at the relevant price point that appeals to the train set market and the price sensitive end of the market, and a high spec"Silver Seal " range for the other end. Where Hornby go wrong is in the hopeless mish mash they have made of marketing, so no one has any confidence in the specification of the model they will get. Moulded handrails or not? Compromises or not? No one has any idea in advance and the catalogue is no great help.

 

There needs to be clear differentiation of ranges. Specifications for each , no blurring,and it spelled out in the catalogue.

 

As to the return to modelling , the market has moved on, it wants high spec locos and there does appear to be a limited market that will pay for fully detailed models. The days of us all constructing kits or making modifications to £150+ models are over. I certainly dont have the time or the patience, let alone skill to make a kit or instal separate handrails , possibly spoiling an expensive model.

 

And finally we are the consumer. We don't change our mind sets , the model railway industry changes it's mindset to suit us and cater for the market.

[mow]

The liquidity position looks worrying - big increase in inventories, and immense rise in short term liabilities - overdraft.

 

IMO they need good sales and cash coming sooner rather than later.

[Ozexpatriate]

Could you offer any other way to view the Hornby interim result pdf ?

Rob,

 

try a "save as" from this page on the Hornby website.

 

If that doesn't work send me a PM.

 

Mostly I use Chrome for RMweb because there were so many problems with IE8. IE8 opens this page just fine though. I'm surprised you can function at all with IE7. I get all kinds of warnings with IE8 for webpages that need a newer HTML viewer.

[robmcg]

Certainly Hornby need to sell model trains, but all the evidence is that they have established new sources of product to sell and perceive no lack of buyer appetite.  The next few months will be interesting.

[robmcg]

Rob,

 

try a "save as" from this page on the Hornby website.

 

If that doesn't work send me a PM.

 

Mostly I use Chrome for RMweb because there were so many problems with IE8. IE8 opens this page just fine though. I'm surprised you can function at all with IE7. I get all kinds of warnings with IE8 for webpages that need a newer HTML viewer.

 

Thanks it runs fine after downloading, but not for some reason directly in IE7.

 

So it is quite easy, dunno why I didn't think of downloading it or reading it in some other way offered by Microsoft as in 'send to'....   I have never liked Microsoft.  But I am lazy.

 

Cheers,

 

Rob

[Stevelewis]

I see they  got  a  mention in the  SUN  today, in the  financial pages  Titled Hornby In A Fix  with a pic  of the  Hornby yellow/red logo  and an Airfix Spitfire.

.

Stating  Turnover  £22m in the past 6 months Loss £700,000

 

But the  'bosses  ' say they are 'on track'  for  a model Christmas, the Chairman R Canham says the .. future  is  bright.. adding.......   most parents  dont  want  their  children sat in front  of the  TV gaming  all the  time

[robmcg]

Having quickly perused the numbers, again, the bank overdraft is high at over £5m (historically much less) and inventories £15m are (slightly) better than six months ago.

 

...so many items in the model railway catalogue, which is 88% of UK business, being due for release in December.  I can only hope that the expressed optimism in reliable continued future supply to willing buyers will eventuate.

 

Don't know about the sentiments from the Chairman, as to how that might encourage sales, I suspect it was off-the-cuff?

[Ozexpatriate]

Don't know about the sentiments from the Chairman, as to how that might encourage sales, I suspect it was off-the-cuff?

I'd say that having product in the shops is much more conducive to sales than not having products in the shops.  

 

Based on posts in the "where are the models?" thread it looks like Hornby is setting expectations that there will be a lot of product available in the run up to Christmas.

[robmcg]

....

 

There needs to be clear differentiation of ranges. Specifications for each , no blurring,and it spelled out in the catalogue.

 

....

 

I think with the web, this style of forum in particular, most discerning modellers (as opposed to toy train buyers), have every opportunity to work out what they want to model and buy.

 

One could argue that toy train buyers often become serious modellers (I did, back in the days of Hornby Dublo, which led to Kitmaster and Airfix and beyond) and these two aspects of the industry, 'toy' and 'serious' have many similarities, or 'synergies' as the finance people are fond of calling them.

 

It does no harm to put them together in a rather lavish catalogue, appealing to the whole spectrum.  But then I suppose I could argue the opposite too. <g>

 

Rob

[andyman7]

 

Yes, but it was a market worth tapping because a cheap and capable manufacturing facility became available that meant that all sorts of detail that would have been hopelessely uneconomic to include on a UK made item was suddenly possible when sourced from China.  Suddently? Bachmann production moved to China in 1992. Mainline and Replica Railways etc were producing scale models years before. Hornby was merely a late starter.

 

 

 

It wasn't so much that Bachmann moved to China in 1992; China moved to Bachmann when Hong Kong was ceded to the Chinese. Hong Kong had been a manufacturing base since the 1960s but originally was focussed on 'cheap tat'. Airfix and Mainline were the pioneers in moving there but anyone who remembers their early days will recall the supply chain difficulties and shortages (sound familiar?). Hornby started getting stuff made in China in 1992 (with the B12 re-issue and the class 92) and slowly ramped up production before the main switch in 1998. The key was that they only went fully over to Chinese production once the production side was fully mature and could not merely replicate European manufacturing standards but could blow them out of the water (because trained staff could do fiddly work like sticking smokebox darts in locos at a fraction of western labour costs). Until the mid 90s, there was still debate about whether China was overall a better option than domestic manufacture but by 2000 it was a no-brainer.

 

Oh, and they may be cruder than their Mainline and Airfix stablemates, but every single 1970s Hornby loco I have still runs perfectly long after the cheap crappy mechanicals of their Hong Kong made stablemates have died!

[Stevelewis]

I'd say that having product in the shops is much more conducive to sales than not having products in the shops.  

 

Based on posts in the "where are the models?" thread it looks like Hornby is setting expectations that there will be a lot of product available in the run up to Christmas.

I think the  run up to  Christmas  is  actually  well under  way, judging from my observations in the  retail  outlets  I visit in the  course  of  my  employment ( Not  model shops  I would  add) so consumers  are   already  buying Christmas  related  items  and  the  retailers  report  they  are  Not disheartened  with  things  so  far.

 

However I was talking on the phone  to  a  model shop I buy things  from today  and  he  was quite  concerned  that  he  has  not  yet  got  the  stock delivered  which  he  knows  he  can sell!

[The Stationmaster]

I've never been privy to the process at Hornby of assessing projected demand. I suspect it is surprisingly unsophisticated. It's not something that's easy to do. In these days of internet wish-lists, manufacturers certainly look to those for clues, and to feed-back from conversations with customers and - occasionally with magazine journalists. Bachmann's Graham Hubbard is on record as saying that they would NEVER do a 'Blue Pullman' (too expensive) or an overhead electric (they don't sell). They've done both and I suspect he was right on one and wrong on the other. Hornby is always in the difficult position of riding two horses - it does the lion's share of its business in train sets and the toy market but it also has a foot heavily in the scale model market, having made a steady progression in that direction since at least the 1980s. We should not be surprised if, at times, there is a blurring of the distinction between the two markets in terms of the details of models. Not so many years ago we'd have been happy that a spoked bogie wheel actually had spokes. If we were into counting spokes, we'd have changed the wheels without a second thought. Sorry, but I think that, if we want ready to run models, we're going to have to return to the mind-set that says, I don't like that particular feature, but the model is good overall, so I'll change that feature, I'll put on wire handrails and brass plates and do a bit of repainting because I want that loco and it's the only way I can have it without building it myself. Cost-in the kit and your time building it and ready-to-run with a bit of personal tweaking is still way less expensive.

CHRIS LEIGH

 

I don't argue with much of what you say Chris but the point I was trying to make as much as any other is the matter of consistency.  Hornby still doesn't seem to be entirely capable of understanding the multiplicity of markets it is serving although it is, arguably, getting better judging by various things said over the past 12 months.  But none of that truly addresses, and in my view confuses, the matter of consistency.  It doesn't seem to relate to description or catalogue/website items, it definitely doesn't relate to price on the example of 2013 RRPs for Western 4-6-0s thus we are left up in the air when considering whether or not to pre-order, which takes us back to the situation you expanded on in an earlier post.

 

I have a  'Grange' pre-oredered (from last year as it happens) because i am assuming the quality of assembly, methods of construction, and fidelity will match previous issues of that Class.  I don't want one but if I did I would happily pre-order a 'Castle' on the same basis.  But silly errors on the 'Star' have put me off as regards what might happen with 4061 when it arrives notwithstanding an excellent basic shape which captures the look of the class very well (as was the case with the 8 coupled tanks).  I don't even mind squared off slots for axles - they worked in the past and will no doubt work again as long as they are square the chassis block and don't allow sloppy axleplay.  But I do object to finding things on the 'Star' which are right on a loco which costs £20 less (or even less than that in Railroad form).  It's this ship spoilt for a ha'potrth of tar situation which in my view creates lack of trust = impact on pre-orders = whatever.

 

If Hornby say they can't do whatever then fair enough - I'll make a purchase decision based on what they do knock out for the money.  But, possibly as a result of their balkanisation of production it is now difficult to visualise in advance what a particular assumed spec will deliver.

[Ozexpatriate]

A bit tongue in cheek given the interlocutors here, plus there's not a lot of material disagreement ...

If Hornby say they can't do whatever then fair enough - I'll make a purchase decision based on what they do knock out for the money.  But, possibly as a result of their balkanisation of production it is now difficult to visualise in advance what a particular assumed spec will deliver.

Well all the more reason for professional reviews in the model railway press then!

 

Once upon a time a new model railway model was like something from Mother Gump's mythical box of chocolates. (You never knew what you were going to get.) Then, for a time, many were almost uniformly excellent and people pre-ordered with confidence. Right now, it's a bit hit or miss.

 

The pressure to pre-order for mail-order customers or people who don't want to miss out on a limited production run, makes things very difficult for professional reviews to match the early ordering cycle.

 

Is there an opportunity here for the model railway press to help with balanced reviews earlier in the process?

[rodger5591]

Is there an opportunity here for the model railway press to help with balanced reviews earlier in the process?

 

I understand that on gaming forums (where product delays and unmet expectations are perennial hot topics) representatives of companies are often invited to answer moderated questions from the members. Couldn't RMWeb organise something similar with Hornby? A few respected members could be selected to develop the questions that would be asked and it could all be kept very friendly by the moderators.

 

The advantage of a live forum interview is that when a question hasn't been answered clearly or satisfactorily, there is an opportunity to discuss it further, unlike a press interview/review.

 

If it works out, it could become a RMWeb occasional series with guests from other companies and suppliers, like 'RMWeb Question Time' or 'RMweb Hard Talk"  

[Legend]

I understand that on gaming forums (where product delays and unmet expectations are perennial hot topics) representatives of companies are often invited to answer moderated questions from the members. Couldn't RMWeb organise something similar with Hornby? A few respected members could be selected to develop the questions that would be asked and it could all be kept very friendly by the moderators.

 

The advantage of a live forum interview is that when a question hasn't been answered clearly or satisfactorily, there is an opportunity to discuss it further, unlike a press interview/review.

 

If it works out, it could become a RMWeb occasional series with guests from other companies and suppliers, like 'RMWeb Question Time' or 'RMweb Hard Talk"  

Good thought Roger, but I can't see that happening , certainly not with Hornby who don't seem to want that level of enguagement. I'm sure they will say they do, I vaguely remember the beginning of the year where they hinted at more interaction, but there's been very little sign of it so far. I'd also point out the reception some people got at a recent show while addressing the matter of 10 or 12 spoke wheels on the Star with Simon Kohler.

 

Incidentally, desite the bag, the inclusion of a dvd featuring layouts tempted me to buy Hornby magazine. Seems a good edition, but there is a glowing review of the Star in there more or less saying its Hornby back at its best!  "Hornby has done a cracking job on this high end production and it has been worth the wait to see it turned out to such a high standard". I bet Mike Wild wished he'd read the comments on here before he went to print. So can you really depend on Railway Mag reviews?

 

And sorry a last point, before i get on with some work!  28XX  72XX/42XX and Star are all part of main range. The Star has sprung buffers and seperate smokebox dart. The tanks have fixed buffers and moulded darts. The Star has moulded cab handrails which from the 3/4 view really are glaring, while its coupled to the tender of 28XX which has seperately fitted handrails. It just goes to show the total confusion that exists within the Hornby main range.

[dibber25]

A bit tongue in cheek given the interlocutors here, plus there's not a lot of material disagreement ...

Well all the more reason for professional reviews in the model railway press then!

 

Is there an opportunity here for the model railway press to help with balanced reviews earlier in the process?

That's impractical. The batch production system means that review samples are usually not available until the batch reaches these shores. Bachmann flies review samples in and that makes them available to magazines about 6-8 weeks before they reach the shops. It takes most of that six or eight weeks to get the review into print. Hornby generally sends out review samples at the same time as it supplies retailers (to date we have not received a 'Star' - Trains 4U provided our review sample and the review appears in the next issue). 

In the early days of Model Rail, Bachmann provided pre-production samples for review but these had inevitably 'been through the mill' before they reached us and had often been elsewhere so it didn't necessarily mean that we got them early or in mint condition. I also suffered an onslaught from a small number of readers who were adamant that we colluded with Bachmann to get specially tweaked models which were way better than the production models sold to the public. NOTHING could have been further from the truth! Out of that came the decision (by Bachmann) to change to the present system, which works well but which must involve the manufacturer in extra expense, while enabling us to bring you the review as quickly as we can.

CHRIS LEIGH

[t-b-g]

The way Hornby have been torn to shreds on various threads on RMWeb I can fully understand why they don't want to put their corporate heads into a Lion's mouth!

 

I am pretty sure that somebody at Hornby will be keeping an eye on what we punters are saying.

 

It is a sad fact that a web forum gives an easy outlet to people to make their negative comments freely available for all to read, whereas pre web, they would have been limited to perhaps a small circle of club members or friends (assuming they have some).

 

I follow a particular sports team and when we win, the fan forum staggers to 2 or 3 pages. When we lose, you can guarantee 8 or 10 pages of slagging off. It is the way of the world, or at least the way of the web forum. There are even people who will have a go at anybody who tries to see something positive in a particular situation, branding them "happy clappers".

 

If we lose, the world has ended and players/managers should go. If we scrape a win, we should have played better and seen the opposition off. If we win well, the match was one sided and not enough of a competition.

 

There are, sadly, a number of people like that on RMWeb.

 

If Hornby lower their standards, that is bad and they won't buy locos less well detailed than the very best RTR models ever produced. Once a standard has been achieved, anything below that is not acceptable, even if that level of detail is not financially sustainable.

 

If they maintain the standards and put the prices up, then they will refuse to buy as the prices has to be no more than previous productions and indeed, the models should be available at wild discounts as they refuse to pay full RRP

 

If the standards and the price remain the same and Hornby go bust, well that is just plain bad management and, er um, we won't have any Hornby models to buy and of course that will all by Hornby's fault.

 

The biggest problem that Hornby have as I see it is the lack of new models on the shelves. The days when a new loco was put out and would remain in the catalogue for many years have gone. Nowadays many a new model comes and goes in the blink of an eye.

 

It seems to me that the vast bulk of sales of a model are always going to be on its first release and if you don't release models you have costs but little revenue.

 

So, if Hornby can get some of their pipeline models on the shelves, I can see their poor financial performance rapidly improving. If they don't I can see them running into some real trouble before too long and all the management speak in the world won't help them re-align their internal structures to maximise their ability to satisfy their customer expectations.

 

Even tight fisted little old me is after a P2!

 

Tony 

[Linners]

^{I've come late to this discussion, but I would like to say that I have always found Simon Kohler fair and generous with his time. He is the public face of Hornby at the numerous exhibitions they attend, and has often spoken through magazines and web based forums. My own personal experience of meeting Simon was that he was extremely patient and gracious. I met him at the Swindon Steam 2012 event and asked whether Hornby would consider producing " X" in the future and he was very courteous. In hindsight I suspect that I was one of many that day bombarding him with "Why don't you make ..." type suggestions. I'm sure he also encounters many frustrated modellers who are unhappy about delayed relleases, inaccurate models or insufficient product items reaching the market.}

 

^{I wonder who would really want to take on that role, but when you read his responses and talk to him he is passionate about Hornby products, and the shortcomings of the model railway market and production in the Far East are not down to him. I think that Hornby does communicate quite well with the public, They do undertake interviews with the modelling press and some of the on-line forums, yet they have other roles and responsibilities too. Do we really need a Prime Minister's type question time? After all this is a hobby, and I do seem to recall one forum that stated "the manufacturers are our friends, not enemies".}

 

^{Please note I have no connection woith Hornby or their staff or indeed any other manufacturer except for a large number of models and a big wish list!}

 

^Linners

[dibber25]

Incidentally, desite the bag, the inclusion of a dvd featuring layouts tempted me to buy Hornby magazine. Seems a good edition, but there is a glowing review of the Star in there more or less saying its Hornby back at its best!  "Hornby has done a cracking job on this high end production and it has been worth the wait to see it turned out to such a high standard". I bet Mike Wild wished he'd read the comments on here before he went to print. So can you really depend on Railway Mag reviews?

Magazine reviews represent one (or possibly several) people's considered verdict. I didn't review the Star for Model Rail but I agree with the comments made in it. I also agree with the quote you include from Mike Wild (I haven't seen his review) although I wouldn't put it in such glowing terms. Magazine reviews are a very different creature from the 'quick stab at pointing out all the faults' which can constitute a 'review' on a forum such as this. Both have their place. Had I been reviewing the Star, I doubt that I would have counted the spokes on the bogie wheels (there's frankness for you!) I would also have been rather more forgiving about the moulded vertical handrail. Overall, I think the manufacturers have enjoyed a decade's opportunity to raise expectations among modellers. Due to a variety of factors, (see my comment in the Heljan railbus thread), they are now unable to live up to those expectations AT A PRICE THEY BELIEVE MODELLERS ARE WILLING TO PAY. Let's not forget that Bachmann has had false starts with 'Hall' models this year, both matters raised with them immediately they were noticed by magazine journalists. Magazine reviewers - at least those on MR - will take their background knowledge of the wider issues into account to moderate the language when writing their 1,000word reviews. Yes, you can depend on magazine reviews but that doesn't mean that you don't need to satisfy yourself that the model lives up to YOUR requirements. Does anyone really buy a model JUST because it gets a 'good' review? I doubt it very much.

CHRIS LEIGH

[coachmann]

 ...............Overall, I think the manufacturers have enjoyed a decade's opportunity to raise expectations among modellers. Due to a variety of factors, (see my comment in the Heljan railbus thread), they are now unable to live up to those expectations AT A PRICE THEY BELIEVE MODELLERS ARE WILLING TO PAY...................

Why 'they' when in fact we are meaning Hornby.       Bachmann is still delivering well detailed locos with proper smokebox door darts and wire fittings & handrails. I have alluded to the moulded hnadrail on the front of the Bachmann GCR tender a week ago and again yesterday.......To my mind it was only possible in moulded plastic due to its shape. I haven't studied how Hornby moulded the similar shaped handrail on the back of the 'Star' cab.

 

Then there is the matter of Railroad models and "premier" models. If Hornby has had tools made to make the latter, it looks to me like a very expensive road to go down making duplicate sets of tools with moulded handrails and other fittings for a less expensive range. By doing this, Hornby is In effect in competition with itself by splitting its own market, doubling its costs and halving the sales for both models...!

 

I don't know what the answer is if Hornby wants to produce locos that are sturdy enough for the toy market.  Even re-running its old moulds for the Railroad range costs money. If it were me, I'de be concentrating my efforts into matching the products of my competitors while at the same time using todays technology to cut costs, not Triang technology!

[dibber25]

"Bachmann is still delivering well detailed locos with proper smokebox door darts and wire fittings & handrails." Quote. 

 

So is Hornby. The Star has a separate smokebox door dart and wire handrails, except for two small but unfortunately prominent horizontals on the cab sides and two very vulnerable verticals on the rear of the cab sidesheets. 

 

I said 'they' because I mean 'they'. There's not a single RTR manufacturer who isn't facing sharply rising costs. They are an industry problem. Some are handling it differently from others. 

 

The Star which is reviewed in the forthcoming Model Rail is NOT a Railroad model or an old 'Tri-ang technology'  model and to even suggest so is ridiculous. It merely has some features which are not quite as 'fab' as we've come to expect as the norm. 

CHRIS LEIGH