Vapourware....the pros & cons

[Horsetan]

....hijacking a prospective manufacturers project when the "stake in the ground" announcement is made very early. I just can't see the point in such a strategy....

It's a bit like what Tesco and the other big supermarkets do, i.e. land-banking. They may not open up a store on that site now, but they want the option to do so later.

[TheSignalEngineer]

It's a bit like what Tesco and the other big supermarkets do, i.e. land-banking. They may not open up a store on that site now, but they want the option to do so later.

Some retailers used to have a policy of buying potential sites to block anyone else from opening up within x miles of their new store, then try to offload the site to other retail purposes once their store was established in the community.

[Torr Giffard LSWR 1951-71]

....as we've seen recently, this is still likely to lead to a 'spoiler' or duplication. Also, it doesn't take long to recognise the pattern in a manufacturers behaviour and depending upon which one makes the announcement you have a good idea of the likely standards of any model that does manage to get into the daylight.

 

Here is the useful list of outstanding models provided by Butler Henderson, from the 'locked' sister thread to this one

 

Whilst theirs no doubting the ability to deliver their is the issue of how much the market can support.

In OO we are awaiting, and excepting whatever Aus/Britrains announce:-

King x2, Hall, Modified Hall (new chassis), 1361 x2, 1366, 14xx/48xx/58xx, 47xx, 64xx, Railmotor, Streamlined Railcar.

Adams Radial x2(at least),E4 0-6-2T, Brighton Atlantic, O2 0-4-4T, 700 0-6-0, USA 0-6-0T

Ivatt 2-6-2T (new chassis), Stanier Mogul

C1, D16/3, J15, J94, K1, O2, Q6, V3(new chassis)

Crosti 2-10-0

Hudswell Clarke 24" 0-6-0ST, Rod driven Sentinel (presumably)

Bulleid 1Co-Co1, 04 (new chassis), 05, 24/1, 29, 41 Warship, 43 Warship, 59, 68, 71 x2, 73, 90, 116/117/118, 119/120 (hinted at but no formal announcement by Realtrack), 121, 122, 143, 150/1 & 150/2 (new chassis), 158, Park Royal Railbus, APT-E, Wickham Trolley, Metropolitan Bo-Bo

 

Dave

[billbedford]

Has it not occurred to anyone else that the so called 'duplicate' models, i.e. the King, Adams radial and the Class71 are exactly the full spec models that Hornby would have produced themselves if they hadn't decided to make all their models to 'railroad' quality. The fact that, for the last few years, Hornby have been duplicating most of their model in two ranges seems to have been lost on most people posting in this thread.

[Torr Giffard LSWR 1951-71]

Mornin' Bill,

 

I disregard the Railroad range anyway, therefore, Hornby will become an irrelevance to me if they follow the suggested path of adopting those standards for all of their products.

 

Dave

[The Stationmaster]

....as we've seen recently, this is still likely to lead to a 'spoiler' or duplication. Also, it doesn't take long to recognise the pattern in a manufacturers behaviour and depending upon which one makes the announcement you have a good idea of the likely standards of any model that does manage to get into the daylight.

 

Here is the useful list of outstanding models provided by Butler Henderson, from the 'locked' sister thread to this one

 

Whilst theirs no doubting the ability to deliver their is the issue of how much the market can support.

 

In OO we are awaiting, and excepting whatever Aus/Britrains announce:-

(list snipped)

 

Dave

Of course one thing to bear in mind Dave is that nobody will buy all of it - I think those days are passing, if not past.  That then narrows things down to can you afford what suits the are/period you are modelling (assuming you source your fleet from r-t-r)  and then your choice of whose model you will buy based on either reputation, which comes first, or what you think when you see it (assuming you can still get one).

 

My interest is Western - particularly settling on west of the Severn - which immediately rules out the 47XX, I don't know about the Hornby 'Hall' as the pre-prod/EP did not impress me as much as the Bachmann version (since dropped), I have thus far one 'Modified Hall' and one 64XX on order, 1361 on order, D6XX on order and I will order an NBL D8XX.  I will go for certain 'vanity' purchases such as a railmotor and will state my preference on the Kernow dmu but only buy if the right one wins the beauty contest.

 

I will also be going for the Coal Tank (not listed above) but suiting location/my 'flexible era' approach and I have a Heljan railbus (also not listed) on order - and i won't go for any of the others except - probably - a 'King'.  that's me, no doubt many other folk will have a similar approach as models aimed at niches are bound to appeal to different markets.  

 

But what will happen, i'm sure, is that the 'acquirer of everything' market will shrink especially if all that stuff comes all at once.  However we also need to allow for what is likely to actually appear at all, and I'll lay good money of some items on that list never appearing or more likely never appearing from the concern whose 'catalogue' caused them to be in that list.  And equally some things on that list will - I'm fairly sure - still be dribbling onto the market in 2017.  The simple fact is that not only have we got to buy the stuff but someone has to finance the making of it and to do that they need a financially sound rolling programme of releases (to get revenue in) and investment to develop new product.  If part of that process goes awry - such as badly delayed deliveries from the factory derailing cashflow at a critical time - then the programme might suffer unless they've got a strong reserve of cash or can afford the necessary borrowing.  

 

And it doesn't really matter who they are all of them making that stuff get a lot of the work done in China and the Chinese factories etc want to be paid for each stage of the work as it is done, scanning companies (in Britain) also like to be paid for their work and might not deliver the goods if they're not paid.  So even in the most economic of development chains very few models are going to cost less than £100-120,000 before there are any on the shelf ready to sell.  If you don't make and sell the right thing you might not have the money to finish developing the next thing and in that climate it might also make good sense to announce once you have got your initial research sorted and before you pay for scanning and CADs - and even greater sense to slot that into your programme where money will be coming in from something else - stakes in the ground can also save money or avoid wasted work.

[lapford34102]

The fact that, for the last few years, Hornby have been duplicating most of their model in two ranges seems to have been lost on most people posting in this thread.

Not really. It's more that they have parallel ranges. By your definition two king Arthurs with different cabs and tenders would be a duplication.

 

Stu

[Torr Giffard LSWR 1951-71]

Of course one thing to bear in mind Dave is that nobody will buy all of it - I think those days are passing, if not past.  That then narrows things down to can you afford what suits the are/period you are modelling (assuming you source your fleet from r-t-r)  and then your choice of whose model you will buy based on either reputation, which comes first, or what you think when you see it (assuming you can still get one).

 

My interest is Western - particularly settling on west of the Severn - which immediately rules out the 47XX, I don't know about the Hornby 'Hall' as the pre-prod/EP did not impress me as much as the Bachmann version (since dropped), I have thus far one 'Modified Hall' and one 64XX on order, 1361 on order, D6XX on order and I will order an NBL D8XX.  I will go for certain 'vanity' purchases such as a railmotor and will state my preference on the Kernow dmu but only buy if the right one wins the beauty contest.

 

I will also be going for the Coal Tank (not listed above) but suiting location/my 'flexible era' approach and I have a Heljan railbus (also not listed) on order - and i won't go for any of the others except - probably - a 'King'.  that's me, no doubt many other folk will have a similar approach as models aimed at niches are bound to appeal to different markets.  

 

But what will happen, i'm sure, is that the 'acquirer of everything' market will shrink especially if all that stuff comes all at once.  However we also need to allow for what is likely to actually appear at all, and I'll lay good money of some items on that list never appearing or more likely never appearing from the concern whose 'catalogue' caused them to be in that list.  And equally some things on that list will - I'm fairly sure - still be dribbling onto the market in 2017.  The simple fact is that not only have we got to buy the stuff but someone has to finance the making of it and to do that they need a financially sound rolling programme of releases (to get revenue in) and investment to develop new product.  If part of that process goes awry - such as badly delayed deliveries from the factory derailing cashflow at a critical time - then the programme might suffer unless they've got a strong reserve of cash or can afford the necessary borrowing.  

 

And it doesn't really matter who they are all of them making that stuff get a lot of the work done in China and the Chinese factories etc want to be paid for each stage of the work as it is done, scanning companies (in Britain) also like to be paid for their work and might not deliver the goods if they're not paid.  So even in the most economic of development chains very few models are going to cost less than £100-120,000 before there are any on the shelf ready to sell.  If you don't make and sell the right thing you might not have the money to finish developing the next thing and in that climate it might also make good sense to announce once you have got your initial research sorted and before you pay for scanning and CADs - and even greater sense to slot that into your programme where money will be coming in from something else - stakes in the ground can also save money or avoid wasted work.

 

....I too don't purchase models just because they're good models. As for locos...I only have a need for so many prototypical types on TG with the odd exception for railtours etc and once I'm happy with my selection it'll take something rather special to attract my attention. I've focussed on locos initially because converting them to P4 can be a major undertaking in its own right e.g. the black motor will arrive with no planned route to a P4 conversion. There are some tasty etched wagon and coach kits springing up and I anticipate those to soak up any modelling budget for rolling stock shortly.

 

Dave

[billbedford]

Not really. It's more that they have parallel ranges. By your definition two king Arthurs with different cabs and tenders would be a duplication.

 

 

Since any new Hornby models are going to be used on their railroad/design clever philosophy and the others aren't, by the same token there will be no duplication and this thread has be an exercise in obsessing over nothing.

[TheSignalEngineer]

Since any new Hornby models are going to be used on their railroad/design clever philosophy and the others aren't, by the same token there will be no duplication and this thread has be an exercise in obsessing over nothing.

Just another lot of vapour then, but I suppose that's a change from froth.

[Horsetan]

And now for some proper vapourware, as it used to be....

 

[Torr Giffard LSWR 1951-71]

....sounds like all items on Butler Henderson's list must be imminent then guys....I think not....so until they are, this thread is valid.

 

Dave