The Black Hat

This is what I am saying about steam being DCC: The Next Generation and that because of the Hornby Black 5 now including steam/smoke we are at a benchmark moment. I personally think that DCC lighting and sound would be good on engines for that can be incorporated together. This does however mean that all engines not done and those since the start of the 'super detailed' period in modelling are now all possibly up for a retool and digital upgrade. It will also push all releases to be aimed at digital and thus now mean that analogue really has been overtaken but essentially a must if you want to get the best out of your purchases. It will be interesting to see what releases follow to see which ones are chosen first.

I was about to make that point in reply to @Dunsignalling's post above. You could do a Raven A2 in several made up liveries that were likely to follow. Im not quite sure how popular the war liveries are in comparrison to some of the others such as LNE grouping. Personally I dont think that time period is one of the biggest but does get included. Chances are if a Raven A2 was done I'd be painting it BR anyway!

Not if Hornby have moved in on the plans for the Oxford version of the HST coach and thus married it up with a 'new' HST. I do wonder how much of that is 'new'.

Wonder if there is still much more to come from Oxford or if most will shift to Hornby. Still hoping that J21 will follow the J27... as the latter was not done from Hornby.

Why do I think that the new Mk. 3 is the oxford one in a Hornby box...

Yeah, but the P2 and the W1 are both "Gresley" so Hornby are doing the "Gresley Express Loco collection" not the LNE Pacific collection. I would love to be caught out by that... but everyone froths over the P2 and to some extent, Hush Hush over the reprofiled W1. The Raven A2 sits under the radar... so I question if that's looked at.

Yes some smaller engines that could be of use and repeated sales are going to be needed, but Hornby like things that are big, named and able to be given some big PR. However, I do think that the chances of the Raven A2 is virtually non-existent given it doesn't get to the transition period. The Raven Atlantic would be a better option for Hornby. Cue attention shifting to Oxford to see if J21 follows on the Oxford LNE chassis.

Yeah but with Kohler on the tiller I don't think there's any worry of my Pacific ever being done... yours is more likely and covers the niche one of a type again...

While I can see the drive to do this and include it as a step forwards Hornby's track record (pun intended) is that some of these are often done as including gimicks rather than anything that is much more detailed. The fact that the 'steam' comes from just the chimney will be one thing that is ok overall, and does seem to work in relation to the wheel revolution and chuff rate, but its not appearing from anywhere else. Perhaps, as I think, this is the start of including these as workable additions, so that you end up with something akin to the two german engines frequently shown on a You-tube clip that shows that when done fully this can work well. I can understand Hornby. Adding the working firebox light can be a step forwards so long as it works and is done right (Nothing that lights up the entire plate in the cab through light leaking), but I think overall this is a wish to move forwards by Hornby and counter the fact that competitors are looking for this next step too. It will mark the start of Steam DCC: the Next Generation, where sound, lights and possibly smoke comes as standard, so thus in the future everything else before it is open to be retooled and redone again. I would see this as a modern 'Merchant Navy' high spec game-changing moment, but that given what is included this might take some time and some working out before its accurate consistently. The price rise might make some stop and pause... just wanting DCC sound and lighting - which look to be available. Yet even with these as standard its a benchmark moment, opening the chance up for many to be retooled, but given whats on the market out there with DCC sound and lights already I can see many sticking with what they have.

I didn't do badly in predicting the new Black 5, but notice the deft hand of Kohler in more Southern releases. To be honest its perfectly understandable given runs of other items that are still to be delivered and some of those mentioned above have not been done. Will the price make people pause, as I thought, then I think that is likely and could it be that some livery selections might make others hesitate. Braunton is an odd choice, given the rebuild runs on the mainline - I would have avoided that. However, what is clear is that Hornby are trying to go through all the big steam oddities, having found after the Duke that you can re-release an engine over and over again with minor differences or changes in livery. Following on from Duke, W1 in both forms now comes Turbomotive. Excellent for the collector and now the one for the Midland region. Should prove to be ok but how soon do you run out of options for this kind of thinking. The answer is not long... so how much more on that line of thought can be produced? Anyone fancy a Hornby Leader?

Can't help but think this is a mixed bag. I think the price of the 110 and the HST will see people keep the one they have rather than change or upgrade, especially when the former is just another re-run. Interesting selection of liveries but what do Hornby use to decide what to choose! Why not match these to the releases for the class 91... so that you end up with both which is what anyone running the ECML will be wanting. Instead you have a mix and match that doesn't cover either. The FLIRT are interesting but I question just how good a move this is - yes its Anglia and modern with an off-shoot to model Wales but this means they don't run alongside much else modern in Anglia and thus don't fit much into layouts already done. Bold choice but just think somehow these will be slow to shift... could that 180 have been better - probably...

The trends for this have been seen for much longer than the last 2 years - more like the last 10 to 15. It will take more than 2 years for most model railway projects to come from decision to be made to actual delivery to retailers. When looking over that time span there has been a dominance of Southern stuff but that also comes from stuff more regional and period specific too. However, there have has been a period of Southern grouping stuff done and perhaps that is where the SR is fading overall as other choices now become equally as viable. We shall just all have to wait a little longer to see what Hornby do next.

The thing is that you never look at how any region is supplied by one company but the entire market overall. Thus, you then see that loads had been made for some areas more than others and that the market was indeed saturated. But now with delays you have a hiatus in releases and thus demand will build again, even if prices are hiked due to market forces, productions slots and issues in China. Actually seeing what sells or what some companies plan given these changes should prove very interesting, but I think the balance of releases over the regions and periods will more or less continue as it is now. BR transition still needed to be hit for steam selections, Southern companies getting chosen, some other releases across other regions but the move to units and modern choices will still continue gradually and probably still un-noticed.

Sorry, but that's complete rubbish. Before Covid there was a glut of Southern region stock on the market, to the point that companies were having problems selling it all. Only the fact that supply has dried up due to Covid and Chinese production delays has caused this stock to eventually be sold. Everyone from Hornby, Bachmann, new entrants and retail commissions were picking away at the various engines of the Southern region. Hornby were, in my opinion, damaged by this, with a number of rebuilt West Countries, S-15s, etc and grouping stock all sitting in discount pages on websites, while people went out to get the new engine on the scene. Hornby's problem was cashflow and stock on shelves in a saturated market meant that it didnt go to Hornby. Even magazines got in on the act with Dock Tanks and there was duplication as companies rushed to get the niche model radial to market. Thing is though that even after steam, slam door 3rd rail EMU stock is another pro-Southern production slot taken up that is as much use to many people out side the region as a chocolate fire-guard. Against this, companies could and indeed should have seen more of this coming and diversified their range. You actually need more credit to Bachmann as they seem to be more adept at doing this. Speaking to various people in retail confirmed that there was saturation in the market, but also that trends were shifting. Hence the jubilation at the sights of Scottish and North East engines being adopted and the others for the Midlands. Yet, while all this was happening, there was and has been a massive growth in modern stock and the fact that digital fitted or sound has swept through the modern rail scene. Those that were complaining at the time were the pro-Southern lobby, which was rife here at one point, but after grouping engines have been done the Southern market is trapped in the fact that its split between much smaller grouping companies and this in turn then matches the demand shown across other companies thus making these options equally as viable. There is little point in making yet more for an area that was saturated at the time if cashflow and sales are what your after. Couple that with the fallacy making an engine on the back of people buying an engine they actually didn't want and bought reluctantly to 'encourage' something - only then to find out that the following engine is something they really don't want and you end up with a model not being purchased and sitting on shelves being discounted. It again hurts the retailer and the manufactuer when instead they could have made something thats wanted, with high demand as an area gets less and see it fly of the shelves. The key thing is getting it all right and while BR transition might have been the dominant force before, the number of releases for later periods, and in particular privatisation, is easily matching the sales and demand of that. The proof positive of that has been Cross Country Voyagers or Bachmann Northern class 150s selling second hand for double or even more than the original purchase price years later as demand is so high - and the plethora of both units, wagons and locomotives that are released solely for this much later but much more popular period than many others realise. Honestly... my view of the real world is just fine.

Think thats the plan. Personally looking forwards to 142017 in Choc and Cream at Wens and 142020 in Tyne and Wear on Borders Railway...

I've never said that. What I rail against is the idea of those modelling the Southern area getting upset that someone from another area when they suggest their model was perfectly viable. When until recently the native motive power for this area was never really done, aside from a J72. There as been loads of Southern stuff made and I think its great that other areas get what they can too - such as Scottish engines being done and more Midland ones that have been covered. I have said for a while that the Southern region is saturated, but given the delay in stock that is being masked. Now there is virtually a new stock drought even if prices are forcing us to dig deeper into wallets, things that are wanted will push us that bit further to buy what we'd like. Its not a case of others loosing out, its been a case of balancing releases across ranges so that everyone gets their popular items. It was perfectly possible for others to get a release or two, even while the Southern region was being rebalanced with a wide range of grouping stock. The main point that has changed though, since we started debating the various pro's and cons about what would be good for release is that in my opinion, BR transition period is not the most popular period of choice. Now I think it is privitisation, overall since its beginning, at about 1997. So while we might want or indeed lobby for a T3 whether that be LSWR or NER version, the question is would Hornby be better making a full on second gen unit such as a new 175?

The A5's being done are the GC batch I think but given delays and how long things take I can see people buying them for areas such as the NE and renumbering even if not totally correct. To be honest even I am tempted with that idea.

Sugar cube can be possible. It all depends on the space in the model that your looking to have the sound fitted into and how the model is best to accomodate that. Howes do some fantastic Western sound files too.

I appreciate the logic but its not the case. When the wishlist poll that was done a few years ago was published I looked into the figures as the poll team would just list each item in terms of how many they got in comparison with each other. In the end that gave you a running order in an almost first past the post system. The more votes you got the higher you would be in the top 50. To try and find out more using the raw data that they published I worked on a system that would treat all companies fairly. I would take the top 10 most popular votes of engines, per pre-grouping or grouping company for comparison - to then find the most popular areas and choices, hoping to see if engines I would have liked to have seen made then be popular enough compared to others that were. In this NE and GE came out massively more popular than GC or GN. I did the same for pre-grouping companies elsewhere just to check on those areas for more comparrison. NE and GE managed to poll about as popular or more so than some areas of the Southern region. While some choices you mention are related to GC - the B17 was aimed at the GE Anglia region, the D11 in conjunction of being able to do an NRM limited edition and the Scottish counterpart. The 04, was also aimed at being able to do the ROD and thus tap Western demand. So on the face of it you can have GC choices, but linked to other areas, where as some engines need to stand more on their own such as a D12, or a Q6. I think thats why J11 actually hung about it a bit more and explains why other following GC engines did not poll highly and that following these there has not been a rush to do more solid GN or GC choices after these, where as the popular ones for GE and NE have started to be looked at and taken on.

I was thinking a Southern T3 as Phil is good enough to list his wish list as per his signature. So while Phil is wanting stuff from SECR or LBSCR will be want something LSWR but thus buy it to 'encourage' more Southern engines, as per his thinking. I think not and thus illustrate the point I have been making to him for years. However, if he did want to get an education and get an NER T3 then his worries about hauling long goods trains up gradients would all be over!

I can see where Phil is coming from too. If you go and buy a J36 you want Hornby to go and make more Eastern region 0-6-0 engines and hope that they see the polling data for things such as J27 or J21 - that when looking at trends these were growing significantly and were matching or even beating some engines that have been selected for production. There will always be an element that like to get a new engine, even if its something that comes from further away and was 'visiting' or just happens to have made it. Yet, this could set you on a course of more Scottish stuff instead, so do you keep buying that in the hope that they then model something for different area. How much do you buy of stuff you don't actually want in the hope that they actually take notice of the true trends underneath it all? Thus is it not easier to buy an engine you do want, in strength so that it is a good seller and thus shows the true intent of the market that should in turn match the data and polling that was already there to be seen. I would advocate yes...

Clearly still missing the point though. Why should you buy an engine that you don't want even if its within your own grouping region? Surely that just encourages Hornby to go and pursue similar engines from the same area, which would be a fallacy on the part of Hornby and rather than lead to better sales and profitability it would increase risk. My posts previously were that North Eastern stuff was wanted and there were many ways of showing that, whether that be polls, gaps in the range and market and the plethora of stock available to model the grouping and BR standards needed in the popular BR transition period. Why would I then go and buy a GC loco which never ever managed to poll as highly as North Eastern or Great Eastern choices as it was these two latter areas that dominated the data. Look at the locomotive selections for my home area interest across the range as mentioned before, the Q6, K1, J27, J72 and G5 are all done or in progress. That leaves B16, and J21/25... Strong sales of engines that are wanted, with demand ready are the choices that Hornby and others need to be doing. Hence North Eastern selections being chosen. Yes the future is in 'our' hands but only if the companies make stock that is actually wanted. Then once these are done, choices in every region start to get more and more niche so that finally whats left will match the demand and popularity of some areas that are yet to be modelled. That's when other areas will get a chance at something, for which I do feel for some yearning for their more niche interests. Yet, there needs to be a balance between demand, nice and profitability and that's where some choices fail to be selected, but we then cant risk Hornby or others being around at all merely because we would like them to make a model and risk their profitability or sustainability. So, with all that in mind, are you still getting that T3, if Hornby choose to make that? That's your choice. The future is in "your" hands. Good luck to the Southern Modellers (and to the rest).

Another vote for the top one being selected above.... well.. its been a while...

Still banging on about the need for people to buy things to generate further sales? That would all be perfectly fine but you still fail to acknowledge the fact that the companies including Hornby need to make something that modellers actually want. Hornby have been adept at producing the Thompson A2s and the W1 and P2, as they complete the line up of all the big Eastern express engines. Thus you can have them all and both collectors and modellers going near a mainline will be after them. Yet as some have mentioned, modelling away from a mainline and you might feel as if not much has been done, but actually the range can now be sourced from more than one company. Move away from GE which has a fair amount and now North Eastern and you see the regional splits that underpin the larger LNE area. But there was little demand shown for GC and GN in polling. Various companies have picked at the popular choices for both GE and NE over time meaning that the range by and large can be covered, although some more will be requested like J21, J25, J69. People also forget, that the Q6 was the first regular freight engine to breach the £100 after discount price barrier and that K1 was flooded with releases soon after the first batch. The same hesitancy will be seen after these price increases as people think the same kind of engines were made cheaper before. I can see Kohler moving back to his Southern region interest that proved popular before and a string of regional releases followed, but past that the Southern market is even more split and even smaller in scope for pre-grouping interests. Make one and you do not please them all... much like the Eastern region interest that you insist still needs to buy all to show success. The reverse is clearly not applied, nor used as a benchmark, when 700 Black motors stood on shelves for ages and S15's or West Countries ended up discounted. The demand of these has been met buy the absence of supply overall and while that has gone to such chronic shortage that these are all requested once a gain the forthcoming price rises that will be industry wide will see many baulk at the prospect of buying these. If Eastern region modellers must buy every single engine to encourage Hornby, lets see you go and buy something like T3, given your choices and wish-list. After all, all that really matters is that Hornby makes money, so whatever is released must be bought by the Southern modellers to encourage Hornby. It works for you too.

I think your right, but this is then driving the debate / thoughts towards just what is on the market and available now, that is acceptable and what needs to be upgraded in line with the advances in sound and DCC lighting controls. This then, I would surmise, would be dependant on just how good the model is overall in detail and performance compared to others on the market, as well as how popular any upgraded model would be to replace the model of the prototype being done now. Seen in those terms a lot of the Hornby detailed diesel models turn out well. The class 60 is a fine model, detailed, heavy, performs well and does have lighting and scope for sound fitting. Equally so the class 67 holds its own, as well as having most liveries done by Hornby. Would people really upgrade their class 67 to a new one? I suspect not. I am perhaps one of the few that also think the class 31 is fine for what it is. The detail is good and the lighting can be fixed. Equally so the HST has been okay and apart from the coupling the new power cars are good. Demand has shown that this is something that is still wanted and the new HST that should come with stock too is likely to be a cash cow for Hornby if they can match the standards of competition, or get close to it, and beat them to market. Livery choice will also make people choose which HST set they go for. Where Hornby are vulnerable will be some of the limby stock and railroad. But then your into price territory and some will go for these as they work out cheaper. The obvious target is the class 50, where the same parts and toolings done for other engines have been modelled meaning that parts for this are already done. Will this come from the same source? Probably is my answer. While that might be Hornby, Bachmann have been exposed as their previous range included a lot of the staple engines people needed models of. The class 66 and Deltic have soon been picked off, with the class 47 having been retooled to protect that one. The class 37 too has been given competition. There might be a means of Bachmann to get a 57 from their retooled 47 but I think that the latter is fine with the model that is done at present. It fills the gap. Bachmann have staked out the class 69 too as a land grab, but this could be some time away. Bachmann are in the position where they can not retool all their range and given how popular their range was for years its clear others see their choices of the past as their future. Hence Accurascale taking on 37 and 55... with Mk. 2 stock to match. Other ranges might see things such as the class 58 looked at, but again, for what is available this satisfies demand. The various shunters out there are also covered well. taking on the hydraulics such as Western, Warship and Hymek are all possible, but do they have the scope needed? The main gaps in the market will be and still is units. Second gen ones will be the driving force as they can cover sectorisation onwards and fill the voids in and around privitisation - the size of this area of the market is now significantly bigger than many realise. Bachmann have done the 158 and 150 (which is safe for now) with the 170 to follow (land grab no. 2). Realtrack the 156 with the 142 to follow. Hornby have the 153. Ones to go for in the future will be the class 185 and perhaps the 180. The Voyager 220/221 and 222 will also be very much a good move. Beating Bachmann to the 170 and thus doing the entire 168/170/171 and Electrostar family is also another option. Yet accurascale has shown vision and boldness as much as tenacity in taking on the established companies. Doing the class 92 was interesting but is getting positive replies. As are things like the Manor and Chaldrons - that now show that everything is possible. This then can see Accurascale move towards other items in the range, but its clear they are taking advantage of shared parts. Thus is the Stanier standardisation such as Black 5, 8F a target? Do Mk. 3's enter the range as whole fleet of stock that is urgently looking for a model that does all thats wanted in the end... Thus, I think the diesel market is getting choosy over its options and the future will be a case of how much detail and control you can put into a model vs price. Thus will some people keep their current models rather than replace their entire fleet. I think many will keep what they have and use new ones as the star performers. But if your looking for what comes next then it will either be a popular diesel that needs full spec, a second gen unit, or a steam model done to DCC the next generation including sound and lights.