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Trump Trump


kevinlms

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I find that Donald Trump raises quite a few questions that are perhaps a lot less about Donald Trump and the US political system as they are about political processes in general. I had dinner with a French speaking Belgian last week who was pouring scorn on America and American's in general because Donald Trump secured the Republican nomination for the presidency. He was quite put out when I asked him if the popularity of politicians like Marine Le Pen and Bepe Grillo, or parties like the Austrian Freedom Party said anything about Europe or whether judging countries based on rather objectionable politicians is something we reserve for particular countries. The rise of populist anti-establishment political parties in general is worrying in that it seems to reflect a collapse in confidence in the political system and a rise in anti-intellectualism. Establishment politicians and the media have to shoulder some of the blame but it goes deeper and despite the fact that there are decent, hard working politicians and high quality media sources which at least try to convey an informed view of the world it seems that there are increasing numbers of people turning their backs on rational analysis and objectivity. And it really worries me as who knows where it could all lead? We may laugh at Donald Trump but in essence he is no worse and in some respects less sinister (if more outrageous) than some politicians a lot closer to home.

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I find that Donald Trump raises quite a few questions that are perhaps a lot less about Donald Trump and the US political system as they are about political processes in general. I had dinner with a French speaking Belgian last week who was pouring scorn on America and American's in general because Donald Trump secured the Republican nomination for the presidency. He was quite put out when I asked him if the popularity of politicians like Marine Le Pen and Bepe Grillo, or parties like the Austrian Freedom Party said anything about Europe or whether judging countries based on rather objectionable politicians is something we reserve for particular countries. The rise of populist anti-establishment political parties in general is worrying in that it seems to reflect a collapse in confidence in the political system and a rise in anti-intellectualism. Establishment politicians and the media have to shoulder some of the blame but it goes deeper and despite the fact that there are decent, hard working politicians and high quality media sources which at least try to convey an informed view of the world it seems that there are increasing numbers of people turning their backs on rational analysis and objectivity. And it really worries me as who knows where it could all lead? We may laugh at Donald Trump but in essence he is no worse and in some respects less sinister (if more outrageous) than some politicians a lot closer to home

 

There is most definitely a shift away from more 'established' politics; manifested not only by Trump in the US (Hilary Clinton is by no means a palatable alternative in the eyes of many, so she should not be seen as a forgone conclusion), but also by Syriza in Greece and to a certain extent the election of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader. When your political establishment holds a set of malleable values and acts with such short-term expediency, is it any wonder that alternatives (however unpalatable they may seem to some) are being sought out?

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I find that Donald Trump raises quite a few questions that are perhaps a lot less about Donald Trump and the US political system as they are about political processes in general. I had dinner with a French speaking Belgian last week who was pouring scorn on America and American's in general because Donald Trump secured the Republican nomination for the presidency. He was quite put out when I asked him if the popularity of politicians like Marine Le Pen and Bepe Grillo, or parties like the Austrian Freedom Party said anything about Europe or whether judging countries based on rather objectionable politicians is something we reserve for particular countries. The rise of populist anti-establishment political parties in general is worrying in that it seems to reflect a collapse in confidence in the political system and a rise in anti-intellectualism. Establishment politicians and the media have to shoulder some of the blame but it goes deeper and despite the fact that there are decent, hard working politicians and high quality media sources which at least try to convey an informed view of the world it seems that there are increasing numbers of people turning their backs on rational analysis and objectivity. And it really worries me as who knows where it could all lead? We may laugh at Donald Trump but in essence he is no worse and in some respects less sinister (if more outrageous) than some politicians a lot closer to home.

 

I think what you mention (except perhaps in France and Austria where it is long established) is a manifestation of many ordinary people getting utterly fed up with things politicians have 'done in their name' without bothering to ask them if they agree with whatever it happens to be.  Thus a party like UKIP (which, don't forget, secured more votes in the last General Election than the SNP) is as much a protest vote as a vote for what people actually want - a mantle UKIP seem to have taken over from the LibDems/old Liberal Party.

 

If the mainstream parties continue to ignore a weight of public feeling, or a seen to be forming a 'Westminster bubble then in the UK context a party offering something different from that will inevitably get votes.  Regrettably the 'referendum campaign' has probably shown politicians (or rather Westminster politicians) in an even worse light as they have followed their old electioneering principle of telling people what they think they want to be told rather than giving factual answer or even admitting that they don't know what might happen in certain respects.  Perhaps overall the electorate is becoming rather fed up and that, of itself, will give extremists (on either hand) greater credence as they offer something different from teh plain old political vanilla with a  tinge of colouring and not much else.

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The interesting point about the forthcoming US presidential election is that, overall, both candidates have more people vehemently anti them than positively supporting them. The winner will be the candidate most people detest the least. Yes, votes are often cast to keep a party out but the Clinton/Trump clash seems to be taking this to extremes.

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Have pity on me. I have to live with this nightmare for the next 5 months and possibly longer... It could happen here.  

 

I live in coastal California where there is only scattered support for der Trumpenfurher. We have one local elected Republican and she is desperately trying to show how progressive she is (pro abortion, belief in climate change etc.) to win re-election.  It seems like the rest of the US is drifting slowly away as if there is a political San Andreas fault creating a great virtual chasm between us and the rest of the country.  I never thought of  California as a island of peace and sanity before.

 

But I hear the echoes in the great middle section and rust belt of the country where the realities of the 21st century really hurt and the "patriotic" militia drums have a siren appeal.  Their pain is real but little one can do about it as long as they cling to their myths of US power and social organization (The Way it Was?)  as it it were still the 1950's. 

 

Even if Clinton wins, and I am pretty sure she will, it will not go down easily with the Trump supporters who will not recognize the legitimacy of the win. Parts of the US may be in virtual rebellion. 

 

I will vote for Clinton. There is no other choice. She is not my favorite person (a bit too strident and opportunistic) but should be able to handle the presidency with reasonable competence.  But there were no viable alternatives stepping into the national political arena . Bernie would have been an ineffective disaster of the left in government with minimal congressional support as much as der Trumpenfurher would be with a presidency dedicated to his personal egotism.  Hopefully she can hold back and contain the forces of darkness and discontent for another 4 years.  

 

I am having serious dreams about emigrating to New Zealand.

 

Best to all of you in your own crisis next week...

 

(Personal note of explanation: My Father and I emigrated to the US from the UK in November 1949. My mother had died in 1947. I have lived in the US since then. Have had a US stepmother and did take out US citizenship so I can vote. I was drafted into the US army in 1967 and reluctantly served 1967-69. However, I have duality.  I have always retained my interest in the UK. I have a masters in British Commonwealth history. I consider myself English (not necessarily British) in root nationality, not European in ancestry.  I have been back a few times. But not since 2009.)

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Ken,

 

What will happen with the other strands ?  Will the Republicans retain the gerrymandered House come what may?  Can the Democrats get to 60 Senators?  Will Obama / Clinton be able to appoint a moderate Supreme Judge?

 

(Obviously Trump would want a balanced Supreme Court of eight far right conservatives and one moderate.)

 

Bill

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Obviously the rules allow conversation concerning foreign politics.  Like Ken in California, our( my wife and I)  credentials are similar although I came later with the 'brain drain' (or at least, I like to think so).  Unlike him, I have remained a British citizen and thus can't vote so you can't blame Trump or his ilk, on me!  Similar to the Brexit vote, there are extremes on both sides with the disastrous result in Yorkshire and similar outbursts of hate over here. Perhaps there are similarities of the candidates supporters; Trumps are generally poorly educated, older white Republicans who have lost their jobs due to world trade changes and the closure of well paid jobs unionised industry that have closed.

 

Like Ken's California, Washington State is generally more liberal especially west of the Cascades, which is endowed with progressive high pay companies like M/soft, Amazon and Boeing  all with younger, well educated employees who make a high standard of living.  Naturally there are the same troubles that appealed to Sanders voters, high cost of housing and college fees which sadly aren't going to go away anytime soon in spite of what he said.

 

From the start, I never gave much credence to a Trump presidency (God helped the world)  and as Ken notes,  Clinton will  be the first woman Prez in the US, thus catching up with much of the rest of the world and after a black president too!

 

Brian.

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Ken,

 

What will happen with the other strands ?  Will the Republicans retain the gerrymandered House come what may?  Can the Democrats get to 60 Senators?  Will Obama / Clinton be able to appoint a moderate Supreme Judge?

 

(Obviously Trump would want a balanced Supreme Court of eight far right conservatives and one moderate.)

 

Bill

Gerrymandering is a state by state problem. It is up to the local electorate to rid themselves of assembly and state senate members who set the constituency (district)  boundaries to their political advantage.  Usually the gerrymander tries to concentrate liberal/black and Hispanic voters in compact urban districts while ensuring rural and suburban areas are more conservative. The US census taken every 10 years is supposed to be the basis.  California by state constitutional amendment requires a commission to draw the boundaries. The result has almost eliminated the Republican party as a force in the California Senate and Assembly. A recent US Supreme Court decision validated a similar approach in Arizona. Spreading this to all states will take time. Texas is another case. Maintaining a white conservative christian majority in the statehouse is a religious cause.

 

I think Trump's approach to a Supreme Court nominee would not be necessarily an conservative. Just one that will not get in the way of his egotistical schemes and would support his ability to sue anyone who questions his veracity or who contradicted him and win such suites.

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Like Ken's California, Washington State is generally more liberal especially west of the Cascades, which is endowed with progressive high pay companies like M/soft, Amazon and Boeing  all with younger, well educated employees who make a high standard of living.  Naturally there are the same troubles that appealed to Sanders voters, high cost of housing and college fees which sadly aren't going to go away anytime soon in spite of what he said.

 

Brian

 

I am well aware of the east west divisions in the northwest states.  I went to high school (secondary education in UK)  in Portland Oregon, spent a year in Spokane and received my BA and MA in history from the University of Washington in Seattle.

 

 

However, like so many exiles from the Northwest, I like the drier climate of California where I have lived the last 50 or more years.

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Ouch. Did you have to serve in Vietnam?

I was extremely lucky and was sent to Germany for the whole time 1967-69. I was able to visit family in the UK a couple of times. Spent some time on European trains including trips to Paris and the French Riviera. In UK I spent most of my time in London area where my family comes from (Beckenham area.) I did take a brand new electric to Coventry to visit a cousin studying at university there. It seemed amazing the locals thought this was such a big thing when there were electrified lines all over Germany. 

 

Of course I am campaigning now for model 4-SUB's in 4mm.  Maunsell and Bulleid versions.  If Kernow can commission a 4 TCP,  someone should be able to commission a replication of the slam door vehicle millions of Londoners rode every day for over a quarter century.  

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There is most definitely a shift away from more 'established' politics; manifested not only by Trump in the US (Hilary Clinton is by no means a palatable alternative in the eyes of many, so she should not be seen as a forgone conclusion), but also by Syriza in Greece and to a certain extent the election of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader. When your political establishment holds a set of malleable values and acts with such short-term expediency, is it any wonder that alternatives (however unpalatable they may seem to some) are being sought out?

I suspect this is a very large part of it. Clinton does seem to be the politician of the modern tradition.

 

In the past the UK seemed to have politicians of all sides who wore their hearts on their sleeves. With many of these, agree with them or not or believe that they would have been a disaster in charge of a government, they did have a part to play in the decisions of the main stream.

 

All the best

 

Katy

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Like Ken's California, Washington State is generally more liberal especially west of the Cascades, which is endowed with progressive high pay companies like M/soft, Amazon and Boeing  all with younger, well educated employees who make a high standard of living.  Naturally there are the same troubles that appealed to Sanders voters, high cost of housing and college fees which sadly aren't going to go away anytime soon in spite of what he said.

 

Brian

 

I am well aware of the east west divisions in the northwest states.  I went to high school (secondary education in UK)  in Portland Oregon, spent a year in Spokane and received my BA and MA in history from the University of Washington in Seattle.

 

 

 

Ken, funnily enough we did the very opposite thing. We lived in N.Cal for years in the Wine Country but I retired fairly early and when when my wife retired from the Fed, we moved up here to a climate more reminiscent of back home in the UK. Never did like the heat!

 

Brian.

 

 

 

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...... The rise of populist anti-establishment political parties in general is worrying in that it seems to reflect a collapse in confidence in the political system and a rise in anti-intellectualism. Establishment politicians and the media have to shoulder some of the blame but it goes deeper and despite the fact that there are decent, hard working politicians and high quality media sources which at least try to convey an informed view of the world it seems that there are increasing numbers of people turning their backs on rational analysis and objectivity. .....

 

This worries me too. In the context of the referendum a large section of society seem to blind themselves to the advice of ecconomic experts. If such opinion were divided 50/50 then I could understand a reluctance to put trust in it, but the overwhelming point of view is that to leave will result in an ecconomic downturn. The leave camp's argument over the economics has been  'experts, pah! Waht do they know', a line which seems to be accepted by a significant section of the public. I'm minded to put my trust in experts, I'd like an expert to fix my car, see me when I visit the doctors and ensure my money is well looked after at the bank.

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