Crowdfunded GNR N2, and Quadarts. N and OO Gauge

[Colin_McLeod]

But that is based on 2,000 units x 3 liveries. Market research should indicate the realistic number. So not necessarily £1m. 1,000 units in total on a pro rata would be c £150k which is getting down to manage numbers for crowd funding.

[Clearwater]

What volume should be considered as a first run say 2000 units of each livery. So if we have LNER, and say 2 br versions. That would be 6000units at 240quid = 1,440,000. Less vat &a business/ profit works out at 1,000,000 to pay for all the development, manufacturing packaging design etc. is this reasonable and who would wants to risk about a mil on a venture like this?

I think £1m outlay for a 20% return sounds too low. Look at the yields you can get on VC funds. Typically private equity is looking for a 25% annual return. Even unprofitable Hornby's operating margin is more.. Agree that a private venture shouldnt have the same overheads.

 

Don't forget this type of investment is over multiple years plus you have considerable retail risk. Look at the sales numbers implied by the DJM runs, eg the n gauge King. Dave has a following and design track record that persuades people to part with hard earned cash up front. As commented earlier, this proposer has given no details of his track record and ability to deliver. If you look at the criticisms Dave has received over 'vapourware', I suspect many would be more sceptical on this venture. That all pushes up risk and makes a 20% margin look unrealistically low.

 

If you're doing 6000 units, that's actually 24,000 coach bodies. I'd wager that's way larger than the production run for even the new Hornby Collett bow-Enders. I think around 2000 people responded to the last annual poll of whom say 300 said they'd like a quad art. Agreed rmweb is only a proportion of the market, but 6000 sales for something that is comparatively niche even within railways seems challenging relative to those numbers.

 

I'm not sure the price point of the Hornby suburban coach reruns is helpful. That's priced off a set of tools that will have been paid for out of the previous runs. Whilst not rocket science, the articulation may prevent additional design challenges to get a mechanism that is robust for the intended market. That will push up costs.

 

If this was easy, people would do it all the time.

 

David

[DougN]

Clearwater, your comments above match my question. The return on investment and the level of risk suggests that this is not a practical idea. I would like something along these lines to get the go ahead but reality suggests other wise.

 

My kit built version is coming along and it is approaching completion. Still must get around to putting some photos up.

[HRH_Dan_Hull]

I'll take,'some issues' when I've sold 3000+ models thank you. (Although I will always strive for no issues at all).

Cheers

Dave

 

I adore the 00 J94, thought i have never been a fan of buckets, and I am no longer a fan of 00, when i went to a friends house i was ignoring all his Bachmann and Hornby locos in favour of his DJM Bucket, I just hope it will be scaled down to N, as I can justify one on my layout.