End of Diesel by 2040?

[Reorte]

Related

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42944523

Think internal combustion will be around for a while in some form

Unless we go back to horses

Horses aren't any good if you live in a flat either. I'd hope internal combustion engines will be around for a while and not lost to daft all-or-nothing actions. I think I said earlier in this thread that messing things up trying to get a 100% goal is counterproductive, and that applies to cars as well as trains. There's simply no need to aim for that and it results in being held back by trying to solve problems that don't need solving. If 75% of cars end up being electric so what if the rest aren't? (number plucked from thin air for illustrative purposes only)

[ess1uk]

Horses aren't any good if you live in a flat either. I'd hope internal combustion engines will be around for a while and not lost to daft all-or-nothing actions. I think I said earlier in this thread that messing things up trying to get a 100% goal is counterproductive, and that applies to cars as well as trains. There's simply no need to aim for that and it results in being held back by trying to solve problems that don't need solving. If 75% of cars end up being electric so what if the rest aren't? (number plucked from thin air for illustrative purposes only)

True

But agriculture could go back to horses.

[Titan]

More likely to use electric winches for ploughing. No need for any complicated OLE solution or similar, as long as you can get an electric cable to the field.

[Allegheny1600]

True

But agriculture could go back to horses.

I wondered how long before someone mentioned this!

Of course, agriculture could go back to horse power - as long as it doesn't have to cater for a population level much greater than that we had in the late middle ages or just prior to the steam age. I'm talking worldwide here, not just UK.

Which is not going to happen.

[Allegheny1600]

Basically, as I'm sure has already been observed, there is no point the UK doing much of anything in this regard unless the whole world is involved and willing to cooperate.

[jjb1970]

Angst about climate change and a shift to clean energy is neither a uniquely British nor uniquely European phenomenon, it's pretty much global.

[jjb1970]

Where it may get contentious is the concept of common but differentiated responsibilities. Personally I think the emerging economies have a point, the mature, rich economies got rich on the back of fossil fuels and so it's not unreasonable that they carry a heavier burden for putting things right.

[mdvle]

 If 75% of cars end up being electric so what if the rest aren't? (number plucked from thin air for illustrative purposes only)

 

But then you end up with the reverse of what electric cars are facing today - when the market reduces for diesel/petrol then you see a matching reduction in places to purchase the diesel/petrol, thus leading electric to be more favourable, thus leading to fewer non-electric cars, etc.

 

The bigger issue is whether the making of all those batteries - energy required directly and in the mining, refining, and transport of the raw materials, recycling when the battery reaches its lifetime, etc. - is really going to be better for the environment.

[PenrithBeacon]

Exactly so Nidge. and it is indeed a problem with both of those designs that although they can shift tonnage, and a heck of a lot of tonnage in the case of a 59, they do tend to do so at rather a low speed on severe gradients. Going up the 3 miles or so of generally steeper than 1 in 200 up to Savernake the 5,000 (long) ton trains were definitely not going fast but they were equally definitely keeping going. But then we had just the same situation with pairs of 37s on West Wales oil trains through the Severn Tunnel where the speed up out of the dip dropped to very slow once the back of the train was off the falling gradient

 

When we did the 5,000 ton trailing load trial out of Whatley Quarry with a 59 we had a second 59 inside it 'just in case' so we were actually testing a bit over 5,100 long) tons trailing load and the 'super creep' did cut when we'd got the bulk of the train on the 1 in 138 rising round the curve from Frome North towards Clink Road - but that was only for a few minutes and that was the only time it cut in. As far as I can remember the only time we actually used a second 59 in the planned working for loading reasons was when we did the 12,000 tonne trial from Merehead and the second engine was marshalled mid-train, US style, because of concerns about coupling strength and brake release. As it happened the train parted between Witham and Blatchbridge Jcn on the 'see saw' gradient profile mainly due to the rate of brake release holding back the rear as it hit a rising gradient after the front had been slowed going over a summit onto a falling gradient. Not entirely unexpected as the rate of brake release was one of the reasons we carried out the trial and we might have got away with it if the mid-train loco had had auto couplers instead of hook and shackle because that was where it parted.

 

The heaviest Merehead trains only seem to load to about 4,200 - 4,400 tonnes nowadays so there is actually plenty in reserve as far as the 59s are concerned.

I still don't see how a 59 or a 66 can be expected to pull more than 2200T in normal service. All this post does is confirm that view.

[royaloak]

Basically, as I'm sure has already been observed, there is no point the UK doing much of anything in this regard unless the whole world is involved and willing to cooperate.

Which is a point I have made several times on various forums, the UKs contribution to global warming is negligible at worst and completely irrelevant at best.

 

Just look at a globe to see how insignificant this little island is in the grand scheme of things.

[royaloak]

I still don't see how a 59 or a 66 can be expected to pull more than 2200T in normal service. All this post does is confirm that view.

59s regularly load to 4400 tonnes or more on the hook, probably several trains a day, whether you see it or not doesnt change the fact that jumbo trains out of Merehead or Whatley are regularly consistently over 4000 onnes.

 

After a 30 second RTT search of Westbury for last Monday, here are a few-

http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/H39609/2018/02/12/advanced

http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/H39602/2018/02/12/advanced

http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/H39605/2018/02/12/advanced

http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/H39603/2018/02/12/advanced

http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/H38185/2018/02/12/advanced

http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/H39619/2018/02/13/advanced

 

And most of them ran.

 

The 59s were specifically ordered so they could haul the heaviest trains that previously needed 2 class 56s on the front, they have done that job for 25 years and look to carry on doing it for a lot more years yet.

Edited February 17, 2018 by royaloak

[PenrithBeacon]

59s regularly load up to 4400 tonnes on the hook, probable 5 or 6 trains a day, whether you see it or not doesnt change the fact that jumbo trains out of Merehead are regularly consistantly over 4000 onnes.

Perhaps I’ve missed something on RTT but it is consistently saying that trains out of Merehead are loaded to 2200 tons at 60 mph. I’d be grateful if you could point out these larger trains on RTT for me.

[Kelly]

I wonder if Mr Johnson got his words wrong slightly and should have said something more along the lines of the previous announcement about cars after 2040 being electric or alternative only (ie diesels not banned, but no new ones allowed after that date and quite likely diesels progressively banned or taxed from most cities)?

 

Technology is moving rapidly though however. Battery technology especially, several car manufacturers are working on solid state batteries which would slash the recharge times and weight penalties. If car manufactuers are working on them I'd be surprised if railway manufactuers aren't also. There's trials iirc going on in Germany of hybrid, hydrogen and battery trains and probably in other countries.

 

 Most of the EMUs that are coming up to be surplus could probably have the traction supply swapped to battery in theory as the AC motors won't care really where it comes from (practice obviously likely to be a bit different). Diesel Electric locos could probably also be converted to be hybrid (73 with batteries rather than diesel perhaps?). Whether it is economically viable is another matter entirely though.

[royaloak]

Perhaps I’ve missed something on RTT but it is consistently saying that trains out of Merehead are loaded to 2200 tons at 60 mph. I’d be grateful if you could point out these larger trains on RTT for me.

Uh, I already have!

 

Here is a link for tomorrow and look at the loads for the trains to Acton or Theale for starters-

 

http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/search/advanced/MERHDQ/2018/02/19/0200-0159?stp=WVS&show=all&order=wtt

 

I cant find any loaded trains timed for 60mph, all the ones I have checked are timed for 45mph.

Edited February 18, 2018 by royaloak

[PenrithBeacon]

Uh, I already have!

 

Here is a link for tomorrow and look at the loads for the trains to Acton or Theale for starters-

 

http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/search/advanced/MERHDQ/2018/02/19/0200-0159?stp=WVS&show=all&order=wtt

 

I cant find any loaded trains timed for 60mph, all the ones I have checked are timed for 45mph.

Thanks for that

[The Stationmaster]

I think that is so they can be guaranteed to fit in the loops and get out of our way in good time.

 

No - it's basically because of reduced demand for product.  The matter of loops is very different as the heaviest trains always ran outside the passenger period and never caused any delays to passenger trains - the loads were reduced at the request of the customer.

[jjb1970]

Something that speaks volumes is to consider where some of the large engine companies are going with their R&D budgets. There is a body of opinion which believes that the engine platforms currently funded will see out the diesel engine. Although we won't know whether or not that is true for quite a while.

[royaloak]

No - it's basically because of reduced demand for product.  The matter of loops is very different as the heaviest trains always ran outside the passenger period and never caused any delays to passenger trains - the loads were reduced at the request of the customer.

Plus the time it takes to slow them down, get into the loop, wait to be passed, and then slowly get back up to speed doesnt help the pathing, its always best to keep them running wherever possible.

 

I suppose the construction industry has slowed down a bit lately.

[Reorte]

Where it may get contentious is the concept of common but differentiated responsibilities. Personally I think the emerging economies have a point, the mature, rich economies got rich on the back of fossil fuels and so it's not unreasonable that they carry a heavier burden for putting things right.

On the other hand they get the benefit of not having to do the development and means that got us to where we are now. The burden for putting thigs "right" has been carried by also being the ones creating alternatives. Anyway the most responsible thing just about any country could do is get its birth rate under control.

Edited February 19, 2018 by Reorte

[Hesperus]

I can see battery electric passenger trains working quite well,  there is plenty of space between the bogies on an EMU that could be used for batteries.

 

I can't see it working very well on a frieght loco, although they could try filling 45015 with batterys with a Deltic engine at one end as a range extender

[royaloak]

I can see battery electric passenger trains working quite well,  there is plenty of space between the bogies on an EMU that could be used for batteries.

Is there?

On modern EMUs?

Really?

[Reorte]

Is there?

On modern EMUs?

Really?

Put them inside, above the bogies. It leaves no room for passengers then but surely that makes the service easier to operate.

[The Stationmaster]

I can see battery electric passenger trains working quite well,  there is plenty of space between the bogies on an EMU that could be used for batteries.

 

I can't see it working very well on a frieght loco, although they could try filling 45015 with batterys with a Deltic engine at one end as a range extender

 

I do still wonder very much about battery electric trains.  Even the most recent trials didn't exactly achieve much with the the time stationary/on power supply being far too long in relation to achievable time running once recharged.  Someone writing to the local 'paper suggested battery trains for our branch and present technology wouldn't stand chance as in every hour the train is moving for 48 minutes and stationary on turnrounds for only 12 minutes.

[Reorte]

I'd very much like to see viable battery trains but unfortunately they just don't appear to be viable. Fingers crossed for a "some day" ("progress" I'd actually like to see for once).

[Zomboid]

Battery trains are a good idea for some of the same things that bi modes are good for - mostly electrified routes with a little non-electric running.

 

I think they might be a viable solution for Reading to Gatwick, for example. Or the trains that turn round at Bedwyn.