End of Diesel by 2040?

[david.hill64]

According to 'The Times' this morning, DfT will today announce a plan/aspiration/wishful thinking to remove all diesel-only trains from the railways by 2040. No new funding is available for this. The reasoning? Carbon emissions from rail have been increasing due to larger passenger numbers. Progress on decarbonising the rail industry has been 'palpably slow'.

 

The answer apparently is more bi-modes, hydrogen and batteries.

 

The immediate effect of this policy is that new diesel trains will also become unaffordable as effectively their costs will have to be written off over 20 years.

 

So the DfT plan is:

 

1. Make electrification unaffordable by failing to get the necessary derogation to the TSI or understanding why costs have risen

2. Invest in bimodes that are less energy efficient than either an electric train or a diesel train

3. Make diesel trains unaffordable to show the wisdom of decision 2

4. Believe the hype that hydrogen, bionic duckweed or similar will be able to deliver safely in the near future.

 

I wonder how much hydrogen you need to carry to run from London to Penzance? Next calculate the fire load that this represents. Then make the safety case.............

 

Edit to get the date correct in the title..............

 

 

Edited February 12, 2018 by david.hill64

[jjb1970]

Well there is a reason they're known as DafT. In the pecking order of government hierarchy transport seems to be well below climate change in terms of political influence and favour. For all that I tend to think governments are making quite a safe bet in terms of the technology being there by 2040. Although unlike other transport sectors the technology to easily decarbonise rail has been there for a century or more if Daft and NR could deliver it.

[FPH 603]

Still a long time away, but that will be interesting if they can get 'Hydrogen Powered' trains working. A much simpler alternative would be using Solar Powered trains. A heritage NSWGR Diesel Railmotor in Byron Bay has already been converted into a Solar Powered Train, but retaining one diesel engine in case of failure.

[jjb1970]

Hydrogen fuel cells are a mature technology, there are various fuel cell technologies which are readily available if the world goes that way. They don't necessarily need hydrogen either as you can use hydrogen carriers such as ammonia. Alternatively if battery energy density increases as some predict then that could be a viable option.

[Hesperus]

When you consider that trains run on fixed tracks that can have wires placed above them it seems fairly daft to do anything else. Battery technology is improving so can be used to cover short distances that are otherwise too difficult. I can't see the West Highland or Mid Wales lines getting wires by 2040 though or batteries being good enough.

[Zomboid]

That"plan" can be boiled down to "buy Bi-mode or electric trains only". Which is pretty much where we are already if you look at the Anglia order, even though the trains for the branches will mostly just be pointlessly dragging a transformer around, and might occasionally run an ECS on the juice.

 

If they're going to finish the job of electrifying the main lines and larger secondary routes then it would make sense.

 

Presume freight is excluded from this...

[david.hill64]

Presume freight is excluded from this...

 

Logically they will need to use some alternatively fuelled motive power. You could, for example burn wood to heat water into steam (in much the same way as coal fired power stations have been encouraged to switch to biomass) and then use the steam to drive a piston connected to the wheels. The Hunslet Engine company in 1971 had a version of this concept that used sugar cane waste. All environmentally friendly.

[Dunsignalling]

The OP seems to be under the misapprehension that the DfT are doing anything more than parroting what they think the government want to hear. and that they:

 

[a] Know what they are doing.

 

Know what they want.

 

[c] Understand what can be delivered using existing technology and how it might be refined in future.

 

[d] Have a good enough crystal ball to know the true capabilities of any new technology developed between now and then

 

The announcement is about policy, not practical implementation. It will, no doubt, raise amused titters when viewed with hindsight from 2050.

 

The eventual reality will, as ever, be decided by how much money gets thrown at the issue, and how efficiently those funds are used.

 

John

Edited February 12, 2018 by Dunsignalling

[4630]

It will, no doubt, raise amused titters when viewed with hindsight from 2050.

 

John

I dont think we’ll have to wait until 2050 to hear the amused titters.

[black and decker boy]

So just when new DMUs have come back into fashion (and with a book life to 2050 and beyond for the new fleets), we complicate things and inevitably increase lease rentals for any forthcoming new diesel powered train orders.

Hitachi must be over the moon. Another huge variation to develop, test and fit non-diesel power packs to the IEP fleets. Are there hydrogen sources on the Devon banks for a quick top up after the run from Newbury?

I wonder how long everyone can extend the life of the Sprinters and HSTs to allow this technology to mature and morph into something durable, reliable and affordable? Getting a trial up and running in a UK sized train will take a few years, especially as Alstom seem to be front runners in the technology. Can the range match that of a diesel or will we need more vehicles and more servicing points?

I wonder what the Minister & SoS will do if the 'Industry' in reply to his question, sets out a rolling 20 year programme of mass electrification?

[Zomboid]

Logically they will need to use some alternatively fuelled motive power. You could, for example burn wood to heat water into steam (in much the same way as coal fired power stations have been encouraged to switch to biomass) and then use the steam to drive a piston connected to the wheels. The Hunslet Engine company in 1971 had a version of this concept that used sugar cane waste. All environmentally friendly.

Using high pressure steam to act on pistons?

That'll never catch on.

[Reorte]

No diesel? So petrol powered trains?

 

The anti-diesel movement seems to be driven pretty much entirely by it being the latest things to be seen to be doing something about, more than any practical or genuine environmental considerations. The current issues with it are largely local air pollution in cities, not all diesel everywhere. There's sweet FA chance of getting every line wired by 2040, and for some it makes no sense at all to do so. If alternatives are practical enough by then great but even then it would make more sense to simply change as the old wears out and needs replacing. Do we want another situation where loads of unreliable new designs are rushed in, whilst new build to the previous technology gets withdrawn after a ridiculously short time?

[Pete the Elaner]

Still a long time away, but that will be interesting if they can get 'Hydrogen Powered' trains working. A much simpler alternative would be using Solar Powered trains. A heritage NSWGR Diesel Railmotor in Byron Bay has already been converted into a Solar Powered Train, but retaining one diesel engine in case of failure.

Have you seen solar powered cars? Very lightweight, aerodynamic vehicles which don't have great acceleration or top speed. They only work during the daytime too.

Maybe one day these can be used with a far more efficient storage medium than a modern battery for night use, but these are not currently a viable option.

[bill badger]

Using high pressure steam to act on pistons?

That'll never catch on.

You don't need new fangled flash in the pan ideas like that. Solar power is the obvious answer. Sun shines; grass uses light to produce fuel; horse eats grass and refuels; horse pulls carriage up the steep bits; gravity does the rest.

 

Its so obvious and no carbons to worry about.

[FPH 603]

They are still in development though. The train I mentioned earlier has one of the Diesel engines swapped for a battery, and is charged before each run. Again the system in that train may change too.

[Reorte]

You don't need new fangled flash in the pan ideas like that. Solar power is the obvious answer. Sun shines; grass uses light to produce fuel; horse eats grass and refuels; horse pulls carriage up the steep bits; gravity does the rest.

 

Its so obvious and no carbons to worry about.

How are horses on the methane emission front?

[Pete the Elaner]

As already intimated, it is easy to make up rules & restrictions without first providing a useable solution.

 

Electricity needs some form of distribution, which brings with it a high set up cost. Since the GW & Midland electrification schemes have suffered massive cutbacks, complete electrification of the entire British network by 2040 looks extremely unlikely, so we can discount electrification & also replacing all of our Victorian railways with maglevs.

 

Without this, we need something which can carry lots of energy in a small volume & mass which can also easily be refilled. Diesel meets this criteria more effectively than anything else. so until someone invents something.

Hydrogen & batteries are far less efficient than diesel with regards to storage mass & volume. Filling a tank with liquid is a lot quicker than recharging a battery & a lot easier than swapping one.

 

In order to replace diesel, first someone needs to come up with an alternative which even comes close to it in terms of practicality. Only petrol currently meets this criteria. If this was a suitable alternative, it would probably be in widespread use on the railways by now....but it isn't in use because diesel is more practical.

[Reorte]

Batteries may be practical enough for some short branches but I can't see it for longer distance secondary routes.

[HillsideDepot]

Interesting that this should come up now as last Thursday I went to the UK Bus Summit where ultra-low and zero emission buses were discussed at length. Whether the operators had had a indication of this announcement I don't know, but the CEO of one of the big bus and train operating groups did mention the comparative lack of emission standards for rail.

 

The top managers of the UK's main bus builders (Wright, ADL and Optare) also spoke and all said that a Euro 6 rated bus engine is cleaner than the equivalent rated car engine, when you look at real on-the-road conditions. Not cleaner per passenger kilometre, or cleaner per horsepower produced, but cleaner per engine. OK, that could be sales talk, to a pro-bus audience, but they said that we've reached that stage that the next biggest pollutant to tackle, from a manufacturer's point of view, is actually the rubber rubbed off the tyres by the road surface! 

 

But as far as engine emissions go, then reducing congestion and keeping traffic moving is the key. Will the DfT look at rail pinch points and invest to reduce congestion? As an aside an amazing example of reducing congestion and pollution has happened in Bristol. The "magic" is mobile ticketing on phones and contactless "cash" transactions. So much so that First West of England are withdrawing vehicles from their fleet at the imminent schedule change, but maintaining frequency. Some gains come from the most unlikely sources! 

 

OK, I've wandered from rail, but pollution is bigger than just what happens at the engine. A few headline grabbing "bans" don't achieve anything, but which politician will vote for radical controls on car use? Far easier to hit buses and now trains with the "dirty" tag, even if (to use another tag) that is largely false news. 

 

Each of the bus builders seems to be going down a different path, hybrid at Wrights, bio-gas at ADL and electric at Optare. It was something that Optare said that got me thinking as the engine under my IET seat came to life on the journey home. Optare see that we are on the threshold of some big leaps forward in battery technology, they expect to be able to offer a pure electric bus which can do 200 miles per charge within the next 2 or 3 years. They should also be able to recharge in about 2 hours. I know urban bus operation is different in many ways to any rail application, but if a future battery train arrived at Newbury from the West Country, raised its pantograph there, went to Paddington and back, as an electric but also charging (including during layover in London) how close could it be to charged for the trip back west? Those with more technical knowledge that I will no doubt see lots of impossibilities in the idea, but that's now, not in 2040. Sure I can't see it working on the West Highland, S&C, Central Wales etc etc, but in the right places, maybe (and Optare openly admitted their solution wasn't applicable to inter-urban and deep rural routes which are my employer's interest).

 

Maybe I've fallen for the sales hype at a conference, however whilst I do certainly see the problems for any wanting to build/lease new all-diesel trains between now and 2040, but I also sense through technology things are changing.

 

In the meantime I'd better get a few more good lungfuls of Maybach exhaust (other flavours are available) while its still legal...

[PhilH]

You don't need new fangled flash in the pan ideas like that. Solar power is the obvious answer. Sun shines; grass uses light to produce fuel; horse eats grass and refuels; horse pulls carriage up the steep bits; gravity does the rest.

 

Its so obvious and no carbons to worry about.

Sun shines? We should be ok in June,July and some of August then, not so much the rest of the year... Edited February 12, 2018 by PhilH

[Reorte]

I know urban bus operation is different in many ways to any rail application, but if a future battery train arrived at Newbury from the West Country, raised its pantograph there, went to Paddington and back, as an electric but also charging (including during layover in London) how close could it be to charged for the trip back west? Those with more technical knowledge that I will no doubt see lots of impossibilities in the idea, but that's now, not in 2040. Sure I can't see it working on the West Highland, S&C, Central Wales etc etc, but in the right places, maybe (and Optare openly admitted their solution wasn't applicable to inter-urban and deep rural routes which are my employer's interest).

That's the big issue for aiming for blanket bans, they get in the way of a solution that'll possibly work most of the time. If you can do that it doesn't really matter that there are still a few running without change. But if it all has to go then you've got to put time and money in solving the problem where there's nothing to be gained by solving it (the biggest problem would probably be maintaining some rather non-standard trains for those locations). On the bus front if the electric buses work in urban areas and make up the majority of them a few diesel buses coming in to the city aren't a problem.

[D854_Tiger]

According to 'The Times' this morning, DfT will today announce a plan/aspiration/wishful thinking to remove all diesel-only trains from the railways by 2040. No new funding is available for this. The reasoning? Carbon emissions from rail have been increasing due to larger passenger numbers. Progress on decarbonising the rail industry has been 'palpably slow'.

 

The answer apparently is more bi-modes, hydrogen and batteries.

 

The immediate effect of this policy is that new diesel trains will also become unaffordable as effectively their costs will have to be written off over 20 years.

 

So the DfT plan is:

 

1. Make electrification unaffordable by failing to get the necessary derogation to the TSI or understanding why costs have risen

2. Invest in bimodes that are less energy efficient than either an electric train or a diesel train

3. Make diesel trains unaffordable to show the wisdom of decision 2

4. Believe the hype that hydrogen, bionic duckweed or similar will be able to deliver safely in the near future.

 

I wonder how much hydrogen you need to carry to run from London to Penzance? Next calculate the fire load that this represents. Then make the safety case.............

 

Edit to get the date correct in the title..............

 

 

In an age when governments, economists and political commentators can't even reliably predict what's happening next year, let alone in twenty years time, or seem able to spot a s**t fan collision that's going to smack them one in the face, coming a mile off, that my old granny could recognise.

 

You have to admire their confidence and fortitude, into the face of the rest of us p******g ourselves laughing, to keep coming up with this guff.

 

From the same experts that wanted you to join the Euro, gave us diesel cars, didn't see the banking crisis coming, didn't see BREXIT coming and now predict economic doom and gloom because of it, even though thus far it has stubbornly failed to materialise, is it any wonder experts seem to have such a poor reputation nowadays oh and if you drink so much as one alcoholic drink a day you should be dead by now.

 

You see, for as long as we pay these people to keep coming up with these things, they will have a tendency to keep saying them.

[woodenhead]

This was the typical Daily Mail slant on this:

 

 

Well we can be sure these trains won't be operating on the mainline in 2040.

[APOLLO]

Not being political - BUT

 

It's time we got rid of all our MP's / Politicians / leaders who have no practical and qualified experience of life. Our leaders (especially the cabinet) should hail from the ranks of experienced and qualified engineers, doctors, and yes, lawyers and bankers etc. We need a mix of experienced talent, those that have "done it" and are not seeking self aggrandizement.. Most of them (currently) have never had a real, responsible job / position in society.  Towel folding - That's what one ex chancellor did !!!!

 

Brit15

[pete_mcfarlane]

I'm pretty certain there will still be class 08s operating after 2040.