End of Diesel by 2040?

[Steamysandy]

Hydrogen tankers will be loaded at Scapa Flow for delivery to Aberdeen,Tyneside,Humberside and Plymouth for distribution to the nearest railway depot.Meantime unelectrified mainlines in Southeast England will be powered by steam produced by extracting all the Hot Air currently released to the atmosphere from Tory Central HQ and the Houses of Parliament.

A similar system is also being considered using the outputs of the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Assembly as a back up

[Clive Mortimore]

I remember watching Tomorrows World when they showed the Hydrogen Car. It was a Hillman Imp, it had been developed at the Institute of Technology at Cranfield, Bedfordshire. My father worked there at the time and all the family sat around the telly waiting for the 2 second glimpse of my dad's back as the car passed him. I do remember James Burke getting very excited that the exhaust was the chemical compound H2O. That would have been 1968ish time. 50 years on we are still talking about it as tomorrow's technology. If it had been financially viable it would have been introduced yonks ago.

 

I think I must be a bit thick but Bio-mass, isn't it a form of carbon like me and you are. All living things are composed of large amount of carbon and need to replenished by more carbon. Now if you burn carbon, as you and I do just in living the exhaust is carbon dioxide. Some carbon burning can result in different combinations of carbon and oxygen. What happens when you burn bio-mass, what is the resulting exhaust compound?

 

I have got it right coal and oil are very old compressed bio-mass.

Edited February 13, 2018 by Clive Mortimore

[The White Rabbit]

If alternatives are practical enough by then great but even then it would make more sense to simply change as the old wears out and needs replacing. Do we want another situation where loads of unreliable new designs are rushed in, whilst new build to the previous technology gets withdrawn after a ridiculously short time?

 

Who else is reminded of the 1950s plan to replace steam and the *-ups this created? 

[jjb1970]

Fear not, with DafT in charge what could go wrong? I heard they are developing hydrogen fuelled seats for intellectually challenged rail users. The lighter than air properties allow them to float up into the backsides of those who don't know their rear end from their elbow and allow people who don't know how train seats work to travel in greater comfort.

[Ron Ron Ron]

Today's announcement that NR will be cutting back on large capital projects, such as electrification, in CP6, certainly won't be helping the effort to eliminate, or reduce the use of diesel trains by 2040.

[jjb1970]

I read Mark Carne trying to put a positive spin on this but it felt a bit lame and the guff about electrification being too expensive was a bit disingenuous. Is it unaffordable or was it unaffordable to do it the way DafT and NR tried to do it? The failure to get a derogation from the Euro clearance requirements combined with what appears to have been pretty inept project management and planning would seem to be why it is unaffordable. Or as you might say, it is unaffordable because it has been made so and it is easier to live with that and tell the world it is so than do something about it.

[62613]

Or as you might say, it is unaffordable because it has been made so and it is easier to live with that and tell the world it is so than do something about it.

Deliberately 'unaffordable'?

[Welly]

Still a long time away, but that will be interesting if they can get 'Hydrogen Powered' trains working. A much simpler alternative would be using Solar Powered trains. A heritage NSWGR Diesel Railmotor in Byron Bay has already been converted into a Solar Powered Train, but retaining one diesel engine in case of failure.

Many years ago as a kid, I entered a Blue Peter competition with the idea of a solar powered train to contribute to energy saving and got a badge out of it! 

[D854_Tiger]

Today's announcement that NR will be cutting back on large capital projects, such as electrification, in CP6, certainly won't be helping the effort to eliminate, or reduce the use of diesel trains by 2040.

 

Politicians love making promises and commitments they know they will never have to deliver on.

 

Besides, by 2040, whose to say the Tories will even be in power, by then Jeremy Corbyn could be about to hand over the reigns, coming towards the end of his fourth term as PM.

 

Sadly, the nation still has a deficit, its debt can be measured in trillions, and the easiest way to pay that down is to encourage foreigners to buy up all our houses and bring in lots of already trained fit and healthy educated young immigrants ready to do all the jobs and pay lots of taxes.

 

Why find the money to educate and train a nurse, when you can plunder Lithuania for the finished article.

 

Maximum tax generation, for minimum expenditure and sod the young, and though both parties would never dare to admit to it, immigration and housing are set to be our greatest exports for some time yet.

 

In the meantime, housing, transport and all round infrastructure - as little as they can get away with.

[jjb1970]

Deliberately 'unaffordable'?

I wouldn't say it was deliberate. I think it is easy to see intent where there was only ineptitude. However I think it is easier (or more palatable) for politicians, DafT and NR to say electrification is unaffordable than to question why it has become unaffordable in this country and to do the necessary work to make it affordable.

[Metr0Land]

That's not quite the same thing...

 

If you bought it, own it, and use it yourself you can pick a number that suits you (within reason).

 

If you buy it for the purposes of renting it out, and it's lifetime has now been virtually halved based on what you originally assumed it would be capable of, the value of asset you need to recover stays the same, but you have less time to do it in - therefore you may be looking to increase your rent when you can.

 

In terms of future trains (what David was saying...)...

 

Last week a DMU vehicle costing £1m (say) with a life spread over 40 years (say) is £2083.33 per month.

Today, the same DMU vehicle will still cost £1m, but with a life spread over 22 years comes in at 3787.87 per month.

 

Again, very simplistically, before any kind of "profit", no attempt at NPV, many assumptions on ROSCO's planned timescales etc...

This rather begs the question whether the ROSCO's could now ask more from the TOC's even if there is a contract in place.  They could after all claim the contract has been frustrated and is no longer enforceable at the previously agreed prices could they not?

[Titan]

You're making a very big assumption that the diesel engine lasts as long as the train does.  The simple fact is that it doesn't.  At some point you will have to replace the engines if you want get 40 years life out of the vehicles.   The replacement engine doesn't have to be diesel. 

 

Plenty of 50 year old plus locos like the class 37 still have an engine inside them that was new when they were, and are not going to be replaced with anything else any time soon. Unlike a car engine, most heavy duty diesels are designed to be repaired ad-infinitum, as all components subject to wear and tear can  be replaced as required.

[Reorte]

Plenty of 50 year old plus locos like the class 37 still have an engine inside them that was new when they were, and are not going to be replaced with anything else any time soon. Unlike a car engine, most heavy duty diesels are designed to be repaired ad-infinitum, as all components subject to wear and tear can  be replaced as required.

It's an interesting idea though. I suppose how practical it is varies from loco to loco and unit to unit. Wonder if it would be easier to do that replacement in an old or new vehicle? (although the older ones will probably only exist on heritage railways by then anyway).

[The Stationmaster]

It's an interesting idea though. I suppose how practical it is varies from loco to loco and unit to unit. Wonder if it would be easier to do that replacement in an old or new vehicle? (although the older ones will probably only exist on heritage railways by then anyway).

 

The HST Paxman Valentas lasted about 30 years until replaced by MTU engines.

[Reorte]

The HST Paxman Valentas lasted about 30 years until replaced by MTU engines.

True, but the pondering was about replacing them with some sort of futuristic non-diesel engine. It's entirely speculation of course, and it might be a reasonable assumption that for a different technology it would probably be simpler and cheaper to build a new train for the new technology.

 

For the sake of a laugh that I wouldn't want to be anywhere near you could consider a steam loco where the firebox is replaced by a futuristic micro nuclear reactor, don't need to change anything else.

[Zomboid]

This fantasy future power plant is impossible to plan for - how big will it be? How heavy? What shape? How big will the fuel tank be? What's in it?

 

You just can't effectively future proof for something that might not even exist yet.

[APOLLO]

This from the early 50's

 

 

http://atomic-skies.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/to-peoria-by-atom.html

 

Mind the Yanks did build daft trains

 

 

But this one didn't take off (thank God)  !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

It's diesel or electric in the future (or a mix of the two like now).

 

Brit15

[tamperman36]

Tri ang had a model many, many years ago which would be ideal, it was a 4 wheeled vehicle with a big fan at the rear ( Wind power ).

 

On a more serious note, what will happen to freight train, will they only operate under wires from hub to hub for the freight to then be put onto many more battery powered vehicles to clog up the local road networks.

[Dava]

This from the early 50's

 

But this one didn't take off (thank God)  !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

It's diesel or electric in the future (or a mix of the two like now).

 

Brit15

 

It's the Buddmeister!

 

Dava

[PatB]

Given the UK's imminent departure from the EU, how significant in practice is the failure to obtain a derogation from the clearance requirements?

[david.hill64]

Given the UK's imminent departure from the EU, how significant in practice is the failure to obtain a derogation from the clearance requirements?

My worry is that now ORR is using the Electricity at Work Regulations to support the TSI requirements, so I think there is little chance that The Establishment will allow common sense to prevail.

[admiles]

My worry is that now ORR is using the Electricity at Work Regulations to support the TSI requirements, so I think there is little chance that The Establishment will allow common sense to prevail.

 

This "great nation" does have a unique ability to make a right pig's ear (polite version) of things.........

[Glorious NSE]

Meantime unelectrified mainlines in Southeast England will be powered by steam produced by extracting all the Hot Air currently released to the atmosphere from Tory Central HQ and the Houses of Parliament.

A similar system is also being considered using the outputs of the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Assembly as a back up

Get folk to plug all their laptops and phones in, then power the train with their batteries.

 

[APOLLO]

More crazy but interesting ideas on the future of Railroads ---- (from the 50's of course)

 

http://wx4.org/to/foam/warstories/its/da_bomb.html

 

Brit15

[jjb1970]

The future was more interesting in the old days. Back then people were looking forward to nuclear powered cars and weekend holidays to the planet Pluto, now people exist in a state of angst about a future of climate change, globalisation, the gig economy etc etc.