Future of HS1 and 395s

[Joseph_Pestell]

I expect that some of you will have picked up on the news story that HS1's owners want to impose big increases in track access charges to users of the line.

 

I can't believe that the SouthEastern service would be viable if these cost increases were implemented. So what would become of the 395s? I actually think that the 395s would be more suitable than either Pendolinos or 800/802s for some of the shorter distance, frequent stop services such as Birmingham - Euston and Bristol - Paddington.

[Bomag]

They would still need the stock if this resulted in diverting some services back to the old Southern terminals. You could swap the 395s with 387s from either GW or GN but I don't think the single leaf doors at the 1/3 points would be appreciated in peak periods.

[Mike Storey]

3 hours ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

I expect that some of you will have picked up on the news story that HS1's owners want to impose big increases in track access charges to users of the line.

 

I can't believe that the SouthEastern service would be viable if these cost increases were implemented. So what would become of the 395s? I actually think that the 395s would be more suitable than either Pendolinos or 800/802s for some of the shorter distance, frequent stop services such as Birmingham - Euston and Bristol - Paddington.

 

I have searched and I cannot find any reference to this. Can you please identify your source?

 

The ORR determination of Access Charges for HS1 does not take place until January 2020. The "new" owners of HS1 Ltd have to provide a statement of their efficient use of assets and other justification for any changes to those charges beyond the current RPI annual increases. The previous owners were "persuaded" to absorb a 12% decrease in initial access charges for the period 2015-2020, increased only by RPI each year. The current owners recorded a £152m loss last year, primarily due to interest charges on loans. If their justification for increased charges in evidence to the ORR, is that they overpaid the Canadian pensions outfit, that used to own it, for the concession, I think they will get short shrift.

 

[mdvle]

1 hour ago, Mike Storey said:

 

I have searched and I cannot find any reference to this. Can you please identify your source?

 

 

Google News search of "hs1 increases" returned this article from a week ago:

 

https://www.cityam.com/eurostar-warns-ticket-price-hike-high-speed-1-threatens/

[DY444]

13 hours ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

I expect that some of you will have picked up on the news story that HS1's owners want to impose big increases in track access charges to users of the line.

 

I can't believe that the SouthEastern service would be viable if these cost increases were implemented. So what would become of the 395s? I actually think that the 395s would be more suitable than either Pendolinos or 800/802s for some of the shorter distance, frequent stop services such as Birmingham - Euston and Bristol - Paddington.

 

Withdrawal or reduction of Kent High speed services would be a controversial or even courageous decision*.  Aside from that it would mean a major revamp of the SE timetable which would also affect Thameslink and GTR and potentially the MML and ECML.  With the scars of May 2018 still very raw I doubt that would be undertaken very lightly.  I expect a compromise will be thrashed out before this becomes an issue.

 

*Sir Humphrey: "Controversial" only means "this will lose you votes". "Courageous" means "this will lose you the election"!

Edited June 10, 2019 by DY444

[Joseph_Pestell]

12 hours ago, Mike Storey said:

 

I have searched and I cannot find any reference to this. Can you please identify your source?

 

The ORR determination of Access Charges for HS1 does not take place until January 2020. The "new" owners of HS1 Ltd have to provide a statement of their efficient use of assets and other justification for any changes to those charges beyond the current RPI annual increases. The previous owners were "persuaded" to absorb a 12% decrease in initial access charges for the period 2015-2020, increased only by RPI each year. The current owners recorded a £152m loss last year, primarily due to interest charges on loans. If their justification for increased charges in evidence to the ORR, is that they overpaid the Canadian pensions outfit, that used to own it, for the concession, I think they will get short shrift.

 

 

I saw it in The Sunday Times.

 

Don't usually have time for Sunday papers but we were travelling to France for a few days break.

Edited June 10, 2019 by Joseph_Pestell
Add

[Pete the Elaner]

14 hours ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

I actually think that the 395s would be more suitable than either Pendolinos or 800/802s for some of the shorter distance, frequent stop services such as Birmingham - Euston and Bristol - Paddington.

Euston-Birmingham, probably not.

395s do not have tilt so would be restricted to 110mph on the WCML.

350s cover 110mph services. They have corridor ends & more doors making them better suited for single guard operation & shorter stopping times.

[Mike Storey]

1 hour ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

I saw it in The Sunday Times.

 

OK. I can't see that, but I read the City AM report as above. This far ahead of the ORR decision, it is just the usual round of positioning by all parties. NR always put in a claim for a large increase for the main network, prior to each Periodic Review, knowing they will get knocked right back, when everyone screams, and ORR point out that their reasoning is flawed etc etc. 

 

[Wickham Green]

9 hours ago, DY444 said:

 

Withdrawal or reduction of Kent High speed services would be a controversial or even courageous decision*.  Aside from that it would mean a major revamp of the SE timetable which ......

....... would give us Sarf Lund'ners a decent service to the Kent ports again - rather than the 'every lamppost' crawl we have to put up with now !

[tetsudofan]

Interesting talk about the 395s. I understand that buried in the depths of the documentation for the renewal of the Southeastern franchise one of the requirements is the replacement of the 395s.

 

The 395s were based on an early version of the Mini-Shinkansen in Japan using the same data systems which (in data system-speak) are somewhat antiquated and will be costly to maintain in the future. There is also talk of taking the high-speed trains through to Hastings via Rye which would mean that the Marsh line would have to be electrified or bi-mode trains will have to be used once the point-work on the London side of Ashford is altered so that trains off the High Speed line can cross over and get into platforms 1 and 2 and on to the Marsh line. 

 

Passenger use on the high speed line is increasing all the time and many of the London-bound 395s are full before reaching Ashford as they pick up  a near full complement of passengers whilst circumnavigating the Isle of Thanet, Dover and Folkestone. Unfortunately the overcrowding cannot be resolved by using 12-car high speed trains due to the restrictions imposed on passing through the tunnels between Dover and Folkestone. 

 

All-in-all interesting times ahead and, as the new franchise is still to be decided, it will be at least 2 to 3 years before the 395 problems are resolved.

 

 

[Joseph_Pestell]

4 minutes ago, tetsudofan said:

Interesting talk about the 395s. I understand that buried in the depths of the documentation for the renewal of the Southeastern franchise one of the requirements is the replacement of the 395s.

 

The 395s were based on an early version of the Mini-Shinkansen in Japan using the same data systems which (in data system-speak) are somewhat antiquated and will be costly to maintain in the future. There is also talk of taking the high-speed trains through to Hastings via Rye which would mean that the Marsh line would have to be electrified or bi-mode trains will have to be used once the point-work on the London side of Ashford is altered so that trains off the High Speed line can cross over and get into platforms 1 and 2 and on to the Marsh line. 

 

Passenger use on the high speed line is increasing all the time and many of the London-bound 395s are full before reaching Ashford as they pick up  a near full complement of passengers whilst circumnavigating the Isle of Thanet, Dover and Folkestone. Unfortunately the overcrowding cannot be resolved by using 12-car high speed trains due to the restrictions imposed on passing through the tunnels between Dover and Folkestone. 

 

All-in-all interesting times ahead and, as the new franchise is still to be decided, it will be at least 2 to 3 years before the 395 problems are resolved.

 

 

 

Going to Hastings via Ashford seems like a waste of a good train to me, although electrifying the Marshes line (with 3rd rail) makes a lot of sense.

[tetsudofan]

1 minute ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

Going to Hastings via Ashford seems like a waste of a good train to me, although electrifying the Marshes line (with 3rd rail) makes a lot of sense.

 

Agree with you completely but the good burghers of Hastings seem to want it and have been quite active in pushing it forward.

 

3rd rail electrification is not the flavour of the month at the moment and bi-mode trains are preferred over overhead electrification...….

[The Stationmaster]

7 hours ago, Mike Storey said:

 

OK. I can't see that, but I read the City AM report as above. This far ahead of the ORR decision, it is just the usual round of positioning by all parties. NR always put in a claim for a large increase for the main network, prior to each Periodic Review, knowing they will get knocked right back, when everyone screams, and ORR point out that their reasoning is flawed etc etc. 

 

I got the impression from the report in 'The Sunday Times' that they were talking about an application being made now for an increase but that of course might be what the journo understood it to mean.  I would have expected the operators and ORR to have some very good arguments against an increase of that magnitude as the ST article I'm sure mentioned maintenance and upgrades so the forne r should surely be cob vered by existing revenue while the latter would simply mean issuing more capital. (which would obviously mean interest to pay).

So it could well be a hoisting of a warning flag for the ORR review but I would hope the ORR would be asking some very serious question about an increase of that magnitude.  More likely in my view is that the latest owners are trying to screw more money out of their purchase in a way all too familiar when investment funds get involved,  but there is a shortfall of revenue against costs.  The concession was sold on in 2017 by its original Canadian purchasers to a consortium of HICL (35%), Equitix (35%) and Korean pension fund (30%).

 

https://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0019/28414/hs1-annual-report-2017-18.pdf

[Joseph_Pestell]

48 minutes ago, tetsudofan said:

 

Agree with you completely but the good burghers of Hastings seem to want it and have been quite active in pushing it forward.

 

3rd rail electrification is not the flavour of the month at the moment and bi-mode trains are preferred over overhead electrification...….

 

It would not make sense to create a bi-mode specially for this limited market.

 

And I wonder if the good folk of Hastings have worked out what the extra fare would be.

[Joseph_Pestell]

1 hour ago, tetsudofan said:

Interesting talk about the 395s. I understand that buried in the depths of the documentation for the renewal of the Southeastern franchise one of the requirements is the replacement of the 395s.

 

The 395s were based on an early version of the Mini-Shinkansen in Japan using the same data systems which (in data system-speak) are somewhat antiquated and will be costly to maintain in the future. There is also talk of taking the high-speed trains through to Hastings via Rye which would mean that the Marsh line would have to be electrified or bi-mode trains will have to be used once the point-work on the London side of Ashford is altered so that trains off the High Speed line can cross over and get into platforms 1 and 2 and on to the Marsh line. 

 

Passenger use on the high speed line is increasing all the time and many of the London-bound 395s are full before reaching Ashford as they pick up  a near full complement of passengers whilst circumnavigating the Isle of Thanet, Dover and Folkestone. Unfortunately the overcrowding cannot be resolved by using 12-car high speed trains due to the restrictions imposed on passing through the tunnels between Dover and Folkestone. 

 

All-in-all interesting times ahead and, as the new franchise is still to be decided, it will be at least 2 to 3 years before the 395 problems are resolved.

 

 

 

Had to look it up. But I see that the 395s only entered service in 2009. Are they really going to scrap a good train when it is only perhaps 15 years old?

[pete_mcfarlane]

24 minutes ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

Had to look it up. But I see that the 395s only entered service in 2009. Are they really going to scrap a good train when it is only perhaps 15 years old?

 

Well they are Japanese Bullet trains. The ones operated by JR seem to have similar short lives (it would be interesting to know why - do they wear out quickly, is it cheaper to build new than refurbish, or is it a way of generating work for the factories?)

 

 

[BernardTPM]

Maybe they rust like old Datsuns...

[phil-b259]

2 hours ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

Going to Hastings via Ashford seems like a waste of a good train to me, although electrifying the Marshes line (with 3rd rail) makes a lot of sense.

 

The direct line via Robertsbridge is relatively slow, has a history of earthwork problems and quite a few single line sections to contend with.

 

Going via Ashford may well be further in miles, but travelling at 140mph into London from there as opposed to 70-80mph via the traditional network will compensate.

 

The other thing to remember is the phycological angle - remember that phrase 'the sparks effect? Extending Javelin services to Hastings and plunging it into the HS1 network will make it seem a more connected /  desirable place to live and work. This is important because a combination of abysmal road connectivity, long rail journey times and the usual decline in holiday business experienced by UK resorts since the 1960s (plus HM Government using it as a dumping ground for socially troubled folk) has made it rank high up the league table  the area one of the most deprived bits of East Sussex.

[phil-b259]

1 hour ago, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

It would not make sense to create a bi-mode specially for this limited market.

 

 

It wouldn't - but if Javelin services are becoming overcrowded and further units are needed anyway its not going to be that hard to come up with a shortened IET.

Edited June 10, 2019 by phil-b259

[jjb1970]

46 minutes ago, pete_mcfarlane said:

 

Well they are Japanese Bullet trains. The ones operated by JR seem to have similar short lives (it would be interesting to know why - do they wear out quickly, is it cheaper to build new than refurbish, or is it a way of generating work for the factories?)

 

 

 

I don't know about the modern ones but early Shinkansen trains were built for lightweight using a lot of aluminum and didn't have the sort of open ended life of most other trains. They actually had automated Shinkansen recycling facilities. 

[black and decker boy]

Don’t believe the hype.

 

the class 395s and IETs are not descendants of the Bullet Trains in Japan but are part of the Hitachi A Train family.

 

the A Train is predominately a commuter EMU platform.

 

The posturing over price rises is exactly what you would expect in the run up to a regulator review. Heathrow tried it for the airport tunnels.

 

Any price rise will get factored into the franchise and fares. They are not likely to suddenly cease these services, there would be uproar on the loss of capacity, speed and connectivity. I’d expect multiple lawsuits from house builders in Kent that have contributed to stations & infrastructures etc

[Mike Storey]

2 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:

I got the impression from the report in 'The Sunday Times' that they were talking about an application being made now for an increase but that of course might be what the journo understood it to mean.  I would have expected the operators and ORR to have some very good arguments against an increase of that magnitude as the ST article I'm sure mentioned maintenance and upgrades so the forne r should surely be cob vered by existing revenue while the latter would simply mean issuing more capital. (which would obviously mean interest to pay).

So it could well be a hoisting of a warning flag for the ORR review but I would hope the ORR would be asking some very serious question about an increase of that magnitude.  More likely in my view is that the latest owners are trying to screw more money out of their purchase in a way all too familiar when investment funds get involved,  but there is a shortfall of revenue against costs.  The concession was sold on in 2017 by its original Canadian purchasers to a consortium of HICL (35%), Equitix (35%) and Korean pension fund (30%).

 

https://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0019/28414/hs1-annual-report-2017-18.pdf

 

HS1 Ltd have submitted a claim as part of the conditions of their concession, whereby their regulated income is protected if the amount of chargeable train miles reduces by more than 4% (and the converse if it increases by more than that). Eurostar planned train paths went down in 2017, largely due to the higher capacity of the new Siemens units, and to earlier reductions in Lille and Brussels runs, and passenger numbers had "fallen" to 10.3 million, but they then rose to 11 million in the following year, and additional train paths were secured, including the new Amsterdam route. But this alone would in no way explain the figures being punted in the press reports.

 

The basis of their claim that much higher track access charges are needed in future years, to support sustainable renewals and enhancements, appears to be complete bunkum, at face value, even using their own figures. They pay a certain amount each year into a Escrow account (the equivalent of the RAB for Network Rail), for predicted future infrastructure costs unlikely to be covered by contemporaneous income, and that account appears to be very healthy right now.

 

Judging from this: https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/document-api-images-live.ch.gov.uk/docs/3OhLwSXSzNyiMH5ASJDxQxm6NPCOXSLbDufpr6D8pn4/application-pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Content-Sha256=UNSIGNED-PAYLOAD&X-Amz-Credential=ASIAWRGBDBV3P5AWKUJK%2F20190610%2Feu-west-2%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20190610T182725Z&X-Amz-Expires=60&X-Amz-Security-Token=AgoJb3JpZ2luX2VjEGoaCWV1LXdlc3QtMiJIMEYCIQDWsgswgkVvnbA4NsXfc1LR6881Fol0Z%2FPFCWTKhDOVjgIhAOeY8nGVFaqAf2DCdFNrOuEU1nfjbEfdxdIPOoSLqEmSKuMDCJL%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2FwEQARoMNDQ5MjI5MDMyODIyIgzHudu7IDerE2uExWkqtwNUfbachwJihWpZoogbq4uSt%2B%2BWsU4ePxTZGbgn%2F6OXdSgd7Td0s7XqrZKcDNeVx0Vb3TfsbNUOpY%2BRlD1fNTPdqIb1Bjz6coBhOX0c6x1vCO%2BinMEXFCbEpY7M2u3KYgEJ6%2BxONBjyvxJ6dNBwnPQArJY09hzOK%2By4A2S%2FLyqYj1tQM2KMxfS%2BCAkm4dLbt6RdDA5cFgEqL%2BvV8Hs9BB9HWJSQ5QYqS0mZX%2FZZDGKU40qRV6yCnAKrExco99OhhbBp8uN0hbHmpGiYKeuxVDfxWd54jvr8%2FOMehZyDSi1%2FsXsDGVfbWGwVk03LcSodQVg%2F5OiwHkKB1WmJfV8VI8E5KqE3uwwPMG5ZHNdkSoeauPfU%2FjyxMgq3eihctUxwsoiJXGxeQ85rabT%2Fr5%2BnNRJrhTHK5hbrfWLx%2BM3uj3Q3eKwU3KuHVpmiDgWJjOY5QHWk7rLjILf4qOzBKGv53otk1jTE8XkRwhJgki%2BiOP68KXwOxZVuBmH4e2UbG%2FJNmJWEqTpbJSSZKP5zMUXjz0SkVj0wxW4%2Fpej5ms4WeWB1muvF8SljylkXDxVs3mTkIxI5hmLU9tCqMJOi%2BucFOrMBh%2BwtKay8xoh3Gz2N6Xz6uduHhBmOKm39BWdiuO5ewE6MjPHUTkkp2maPWSaowJwIo%2FYK%2F48i8zieUZBU1zHmYiTdRc7xn4bPqpAvDTpJiuCf9fEJESjPdJJnQS1hy6lWT5zsv9LEdWevBJnv9Vy9jSGLoSuXMq0me6QMhVqcD%2BZPFQ6hiqKgHqEE4qqsPFltKaagNf%2BfJ5bldZAwNZOGXJj%2FcaAeyx0Uacd1gHhTDZB5gk8%3D&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=4bece878373a54d4255a623e0f7157a6b770037a4209ed3c2a9085f7ec3791ff

 

the books of their holding company, whilst recording a technical EBITDA P&L loss, show little concern over future risks. But most of their cost increases are finance related, to the ultimate parent companies (see Page 16). The income is relatively stable. Debt is huge, but so are loans outwards, and no interest payments from those loans are expected within the next 12 months. Why? Buying an entity for £3 billion sovs, on which the asset value is reducing significantly up to 2040, and the annual group "profit" is around £100m, is not the greatest investment. Canadian pensioners must be laughing into their Horlicks. I think ORR are long enough in the tooth now to see through much of this.

 

[Mike Storey]

57 minutes ago, phil-b259 said:

 

The other thing to remember is the phycological angle - remember that phrase 'the sparks effect? Extending Javelin services to Hastings and plunging it into the HS1 network will make it seem a more connected /  desirable place to live and work. This is important because a combination of abysmal road connectivity, long rail journey times and the usual decline in holiday business experienced by UK resorts since the 1960s (plus HM Government using it as a dumping ground for socially troubled folk) has made it rank high up the league table  the area one of the most deprived bits of East Sussex.

 

True, but that was part of the point of electrifying the Robertsbridge route. It worked further up the line, for sure, but poor old Hastings is still stuck with its image (partly deserved, but not entirely so). The same has been true of Margate, despite some initial hopes with the new art gallery and a number of celebs moving in with their boutique hotels and whatnot. Even Ramsgate has done better than Margate, with its trendy, picterskew parts, good skools and trendy harbour front. Many of the sea-front, Regency houses were going for a song twenty years ago, but now cost a fortune, but in the roads behind, far less so. But the town centre is still a total sh1thole (apart from a most excellent pet shop, and a very good independent cafe nearly opposite - however the only model railway shop, near Waitrose, which was never terribly good, has since shut). House prices around East Kent have gone up for sure, but not to the same degree as Ashford or Canterbury, and definitely only in selected parts. There is not the room, topographically, for Hastings to develop outwards much (or at very great cost) so any trendyfication would come at the expense of locally affordable housing - which would have to be resolved by the council. 

 

So, the case for electrifying and Javellinning the Marshes is extremely slim - the greatest beneficiary would be Rye, and that is tiny.

 

[david.hill64]

8 hours ago, pete_mcfarlane said:

 

Well they are Japanese Bullet trains. The ones operated by JR seem to have similar short lives (it would be interesting to know why - do they wear out quickly, is it cheaper to build new than refurbish, or is it a way of generating work for the factories?)

 

 

An issue with Shinkanshen is the small size of the tunnels and the sealed trains. The pressure pulses generated are larger than those that are generated using UIC dimensioned trains and infrastructure, hence the enormous noses on the Shinkanshen trains. The long noses reduce the pulse. However, there is still a significant pressure difference between the inside and outside of the trains when passing through tunnels, which results in the body structures expanding and contracting much the same way as a plane does. (Hence the small windows in Shinkanshen trains). The constant movement causes fatigue damage to the structures. It's probably cheaper to replace than repair.

[Joseph_Pestell]

13 hours ago, BernardTPM said:

Maybe they rust like old Datsuns...

 

Saw a 1970 Datsun 1200 estate on the road last week. Beautiful condition with no rust at all.