HS2 under review

[APOLLO]

Al this pallaver - and STILL Leigh Lancashire has no railway !!!!!

 

No HS2 station either !!

 

http://stophs2.org/news/6827-station-leigh

 

This is interesting

 

Meanwhile, Mr Grundy's fellow Conservative ward councillor Edward Houlton asked for the mayor's backing in a campaign to stop the HS2 railway line running through Lowton.

Mr Burnham said that although he supported the successful campaign which stopped the building of a HS2 depot in Golborne, he thinks the line will offer "opportunity" for the area.

 

https://www.leighjournal.co.uk/news/17467738.greater-manchester-mayor-determined-to-deliver-train-station-for-leigh/

 

Just wait till they find the Great Crested Newts at Bamfurlong  !!

 

Brit15

 

Edited August 27, 2019 by APOLLO

[Rugd1022]

2 hours ago, woodenhead said:

What the heck, lets just go there and say it.

 

What everyone wants is for the old Great Central to be reborn as HS2 - forget all the local passengers, they can extend the Met and Crossrail to Oxford for that.

 

Fast trains out of Marylebone, junction at Rugby for Birmingham because no NIMBYs that matter north of Watford so new line to Birmingham from there.  Reinstate the bridge over the WCML then forge along the old alignment, run roughshod through the GCR South and GCR North Railways, new station in Nottingham in the cavity left by Nottingham Victoria - then line to a revitalised Sheffield Victoria where the line heads west to Manchester over Woodhead (making all those Woodhead fanatics feel smug) and a new north line up to Leeds from Penistone,

 

There all solved.

 

That'll do me nicely, our current Booking On Point is just yards away from what's left of the GC embankment north of the Birdcage bridge and  on towards the Avon flood plain... 

 

As you were folks...!

 

 

Edited August 27, 2019 by Rugd1022

[APOLLO]

Wasn't there a (failed) project to resurrect the Woodhead line and the old GC / Midland lines as a high speed freight line a few years ago ? Central Rail or something. Liverpool to Sheffield over Woodhead & down to London if I remember.

 

Something will have to be done soon - the country is bursting at the seams and getting bogged down (transport wise - every form thereof).

 

Oil & Gas are running out (50 years), population rising, (UK & Worldwide), globe is warming, climate is changing (atmospherical and political), EVERYBODY wants to be in London (except me !!!!!).

 

People DO need to travel, for many reasons work being the main one. More and more jobs are specialised, and require flexibility of movement. The days of a job for life in / nearby your home town are history, and high house prices (especially in the SE) mean more and longer commuting. A 21st century problem.

 

Will Boris and his mate Mr Shapps sort us out ? - I hope so but very much doubt it.

 

Brit15

 

 

 

 

 

[paulbb]

There really is no way of knowing ALL the costs and ALL the benefits of all or even part the HS2 scheme as this is such a massive system change affecting large swathes of the country, and thats before we even get to trying to quantify them all. Or trying to quantify the negative effects of the areas 'left behind' by it. The conventional cost benefit tools are simply not adeqate for the job. Ironically it means that although a business case for it cannot be made, neither can a case for NOT doing it.
Lets face it, HS2 is an act of FAITH that you believe or not.
My guess is that BJ will kill most of it to secure his Tory areas and offer an 'HS3' type package for the North, so as to prevent electoral meltdown
for his party up there

[rockershovel]

What he just said. 

 

HS2 is an act of faith. If you believe, justification will appear. If you don’t, it will make no sense at all. 

 

So many public sector decisions appear to be taken on that basis these days. 

 

 

[melmerby]

5 hours ago, rockershovel said:

 Birmingham, I’m afraid, is stone dead; like most Northern cities, the heavy industry which was the foundation of its prosperity has been completely destroyed and the infrastructure razed to the ground. 

Way off fortunately. But a good try

 

It's economy is growing faster than most other places, second only to London. More jobs from foreign investment than anywhere else. Greatest number of people in employment outside London. It's also now a major student city with 6 universities, it's also the 4th most popular tourist destination in the UK.

 

What's this infrastructure that has been razed to the ground?

BTW Birmingham didn't grow prosperous on heavy industry, It wasn't called the "City of 1000 trades" for nothing.

Birmingham is definitely not a Northern City. (although it might be to those down south)

 

Edited August 27, 2019 by melmerby

[Clearwater]

5 hours ago, rockershovel said:

Interesting and Informative post above, about the relationship between HS2 and JIT traffic Southampton/Oxford/Coventry. Why has it taken 168 pages for someone to mention this, amid the hundreds of posts about saving half an hour to Birmingham? 

 

So, what about HS2 North of Coventry? Birmingham, I’m afraid, is stone dead; like most Northern cities, the heavy industry which was the foundation of its prosperity has been completely destroyed and the infrastructure razed to the ground. 

 

Eh?

You must have missed the posts describing the capacity constraints that the project relieves.

 

You’re mistaken about Birmingham and the West Midlands.  Check the city centre and the ongoing development. Check the newspaper articles describing it as a place to live.  Check the specialist engineering firms across the region.  The West Mids has two rail fed steel terminals, Brierley Hill and Wolverhampton.  Both take steel coil for use in manufacturing industries.  Hardly a failing city or region!

[royaloak]

5 hours ago, APOLLO said:

Just wait till they find the Great Crested Newts at Bamfurlong  !!

 

Brit15

 

I still think all the great crested newts they find should be tagged before releasing back into the wild because for such a rare creature they seem to turn up rather inconveniently at any big building project.

[black and decker boy]

Great crested newts are a European protected species and rare (on a continent wide basis)

 

however, in the U.K., they are not rare but only protected via the EU wide designation.

 

Despite that anomaly, proper planning prevent an issue at construction stage. HS2 has rigorous plans so should be unaffected.

[rockershovel]

I worked in Birmingham for 6 months in 2017. 

 

It was quite instructive, actually. I didn't realise that it was the second largest city in the U.K by a considerable margin, at approximately 1.1 million it is more than twice the size of Manchester, Glasgow or Liverpool for example, four times the size of Newcastle. 

 

Neither Brierly Hill nor, (oddly enough given the name) Wolverhampton, were in Birmingham, last time I looked. 

 

I've had two children go through University in the past decade and that gave me occasion to look at the subject in detail. Birmingham may have expanded greatly but (with the notable exception of BirmAston, the original Uni there) I wasn't impressed. 

 

The company I worked for was a specialist engineering company in the rail sector. Oddly enough they had no local suppliers or subcontractors, and have now left Birmingham altogether. 

 

Local newspapers cry up Birminghsm as a place to live? Really? Who'd have thought it? There's a great deal of foreign-funded property speculation in certain areas of the city, but I was amazed (walking into town along the canals) to find derelict sites and car parking on cleared sites within view of New Street Station. 

 

Oddly enough, one colleague there had a son in the Selly Oak Scout troop, and had no idea why their unit badge was the "chevalier de fer" which once denoted Ariel Motors; the once-vast BSA works are now totally vanished. 

 

I'm afraid that I found it a depressing experience, as with so much of the UK I have been reacquainting myself with (Plymouth was heart-breaking...)

 

 

 

[runs as required]

13 hours ago, Phil Parker said:

I'm not sure anyone is quite sure which question is being asked or answered. I think you are talking about improvements to the MML - if you want to go there, I suggest a different thread. This one needs to return to HS2. 

Admit It ! 

Wouldn’t you all love to be in that room today with Michele Dix, Tony Travers & co. deciding how to tackle the HST2 Review?

I admit I would – for my training as a planner stressed the necessity for continued monitoring. My experience has been that when monitoring is in-effective, projects get mired in unnecessary complexity and costs spiral.

1

Lets remind ourselves of the terms of reference for independent review of HS2.

The review will use all existing evidence on the project and consider its:

·      benefits and impacts

·      affordability and efficiency

·      deliverability

·      scope and phasing, including its relationship with Northern Powerhouse Rail

more detail is added in the first section Purpose

2

The terms of reference specifically mention relationship with Northern Powerhouse

So it is not mainly about relief to overloaded commuter lines into the capital 

At a macro level computer modelling ought to be able to cope with maintaining an overall view of national network impacts and opportunities, while at the same time diving into detail about detail implications at critical points  

3

I first encountered computing with crude transportation planning models (using punched cards and mainframes) :

Journeys > projected journeys > assign to network (with constraints) > identify loadings

Next start tossing in new network proposals (with notional costs) > compare/optimise

present and decide

I imagine this has become vastly more sophisticated, rapid, and self interrogating with AI

4

But I do hope the Independent Review will not encounter Political or Organisational constraints to boundaries of study.

Since my operational days  Project Management in Britain appears to have become far more fragmented: DfT, Franchisees, with private Specialist Consultancies competing to offer services at all levels. I recall estimates for professional services used to be around 13-15% for a large project; it must now account for around 33%.

5

That is why I wonder whether a clear (Independent) overview can still be maintained during such a brief task to be completed within 2-3 months.

dh

[brack]

9 hours ago, rockershovel said:

What he just said. 

 

HS2 is an act of faith. If you believe, justification will appear. If you don’t, it will make no sense at all. 

 

So many public sector decisions appear to be taken on that basis these days. 

 

 

Only in the sense that building anything is always an act of faith because the future cannot be known or predicted with certainty, hence the years spent analysing the problem and working out the best solution, and getting a best estimate of future needs.

 

I have builders coming to convert my garage in a few weeks. It's an act of faith inasmuch as I assume I'll still have a job for the next few years to pay for it, that I'll be fit enough to do the internal fit out, that my family wont split up so we'll still need the space. All evidence suggests I'm fine on all counts, but nothing can be known 100%, I might be sacked tomorrow.

[rockershovel]

30 minutes ago, brack said:

Only in the sense that building anything is always an act of faith because the future cannot be known or predicted with certainty, hence the years spent analysing the problem and working out the best solution, and getting a best estimate of future needs.

 

I have builders coming to convert my garage in a few weeks. It's an act of faith inasmuch as I assume I'll still have a job for the next few years to pay for it, that I'll be fit enough to do the internal fit out, that my family wont split up so we'll still need the space. All evidence suggests I'm fine on all counts, but nothing can be known 100%, I might be sacked tomorrow.

 

False analogy. The purposes of a garage are well known, along with its uses. The building costs can be accurately predicted..... 

 

[Jol Wilkinson]

1 hour ago, rockershovel said:

I worked in Birmingham for 6 months in 2017. 

 

It was quite instructive, actually. I didn't realise that it was the second largest city in the U.K by a considerable margin, at approximately 1.1 million it is more than twice the size of Manchester, Glasgow or Liverpool for example, four times the size of Newcastle. 

 

Neither Brierly Hill nor, (oddly enough given the name) Wolverhampton, were in Birmingham, last time I looked. 

 

I've had two children go through University in the past decade and that gave me occasion to look at the subject in detail. Birmingham may have expanded greatly but (with the notable exception of BirmAston, the original Uni there) I wasn't impressed. 

 

The company I worked for was a specialist engineering company in the rail sector. Oddly enough they had no local suppliers or subcontractors, and have now left Birmingham altogether. 

 

Local newspapers cry up Birminghsm as a place to live? Really? Who'd have thought it? There's a great deal of foreign-funded property speculation in certain areas of the city, but I was amazed (walking into town along the canals) to find derelict sites and car parking on cleared sites within view of New Street Station. 

 

Oddly enough, one colleague there had a son in the Selly Oak Scout troop, and had no idea why their unit badge was the "chevalier de fer" which once denoted Ariel Motors; the once-vast BSA works are now totally vanished. 

 

I'm afraid that I found it a depressing experience, as with so much of the UK I have been reacquainting myself with (Plymouth was heart-breaking...)

 

 

 

And London is not what it was either, it is just that people tend to see the changes there  as improvements, not as evidence of decline, economic failure, etc. It is easier to see the whole picture in a smaller city and avoid the worse bits in a much bigger one.

 

We should also remember that London is the centre of government, the finance sector, the insurance sector, etc. where overpaid (private sector) or ill equipped (public sector) people make decisions that affect the whole of the UK, usually for the worse. What could be more depressing than that?

[melmerby]

1 hour ago, rockershovel said:

 

I've had two children go through University in the past decade and that gave me occasion to look at the subject in detail. Birmingham may have expanded greatly but (with the notable exception of BirmAston, the original Uni there) I wasn't impressed. 

 

BirmAston? What's that?

Birmingham University is the "original" Uni with it's main campus area around Edgbaston and includes the QE Hospital as part of it's medical school.

Aston University is a totally different beast, being mainly technology based 

Birmingham City Uni is one that has expanded massively in recent years and now is second to Birmingham Uni in size.

These latter two are next door to each other just NE of the city centre.

[Fat Controller]

7 minutes ago, melmerby said:

BirmAston? What's that?

Birmingham University is the "original" Uni with it's main campus area around Edgbaston and includes the QE Hospital as part of it's medical school.

Aston University is a totally different beast, being mainly technology based 

Birmingham City Uni is one that has expanded massively in recent years and now is second to Birmingham Uni in size.

These latter two are next door to each other just NE of the city centre.

Aston was a 'College of Advanced Technology' when built, IIRC. Birmingham City University was the Polytechnic. 

[APOLLO]

My mate went to Aston Uni in the mid 70's. We would head down to his digs friday afternoon for a weekend in Brum. Just after the pub bombings. We were searched on entry to most pubs and clubs. A vibrant city back then, friendly people (with a strange accent !!!).

 

Not been for many years. Everywhere changes.

 

Brit15

[melmerby]

8 minutes ago, Fat Controller said:

Aston was a 'College of Advanced Technology' when built, IIRC. Birmingham City University was the Polytechnic. 

Yes I went to Aston for a microwave radio course. (couldn't get to grips with the maths for polar diagrams!)

It was one of the new wave of uni creations in the 60s

Th BCU comprises many different colleges which have been amalgamated such as the school of art and the catering college and also includes the conservatoire.

Edited August 28, 2019 by melmerby

[Fat Controller]

1 minute ago, melmerby said:

Yes I went to Aston for a microwave radio course. (couldn't get to grips with the maths for polar diagrams!)

It was one of the new wave of uni creations in the 60s

Th BCU comprises many different colleges which have been amalgamated such as the school of art and the catering school and includes the conservatoire.

Former Polys are like that; I was at Bristol, which extended from near Stoke Gifford to Bower Ashton, south of the city. Occasionally, someone would plan a lecturer to be at the extremities for consecutive hours.

[Ravenser]

18 hours ago, runs as required said:

Now you are talking 

I forgot Matlock to Peak Forest  - and Grimsby/Skeg/Boston (I drove down the A16 only last week).

 

Our family moved out of NE London in 1949 and I grew up alongside the Midland line through the Peak as a result of the Barlow Commission industrial relocation policies that held good from the 1930s through to (probably) 1979 when a whole lot of sensible planning strategies were scrapped in favour of the Market's "Hidden Hand".

 

And I've done well out of the crazy surge of the property market (much easier than tunnelling ?) though it is clearly disadvantaging my grandchildren's hopes in the SE.

Several of them are wondering about a less stressful re-location up to the North Tyne (once they get the Kielder Forest timber trucks off onto a single line of rails)  with 5G connectivity o the rest of the world.

 

Who was it who said strategic decisions can be better made by turning the Board around?

dh

 

During that period Britain went from one of the world's great powers to being an economic basket case . By the later 1970s the main issue was whether the country had already entered the final death plunge or whether it was still to come in the next 5 years.

 

If that sounds extreme to younger forum members - I do remember sitting in a classroom in Sydney in 1981 having an argument with my geography teacher about whether there was any possibility of a future for Britain. He was adamant there wasn't - "Britain has lost its ethos"  He was adamant the only question was whether Britain's economic collapse would be handled as steadily falling living standards for all or ever spiralling unemployment. He was quite clear that the situation couldn't possibly be turned round. The geography text book was quite clearly presented - chapter on Japan as "study in success" , chapter on Britain "study in failure" . As we were coming back here and I needed a future I  argued quite strongly it wasn't sealed and certain

 

Oddly enough around 1980 something changed and the British economy began to perform about as well as other developed economies. So I'm not up for a re-run of the policies that ended in the "near-death experience" of 1970s Britain

 

Between 1930 and 1980 we didn't open railway lines - we closed 'em

Edited August 28, 2019 by Ravenser

[The Stationmaster]

17 hours ago, rockershovel said:

Interesting and Informative post above, about the relationship between HS2 and JIT traffic Southampton/Oxford/Coventry. Why has it taken 168 pages for someone to mention this, amid the hundreds of posts about saving half an hour to Birmingham? 

 

This is one reason why projects like this are so contentious. They proceed, at immense cost, with the most nebulous of stated aims. No one WANTS a project like DIRFT near THEM, of course, but it brings employment. 

 

So, what about HS2 North of Coventry? Birmingham, I’m afraid, is stone dead; like most Northern cities, the heavy industry which was the foundation of its prosperity has been completely destroyed and the infrastructure razed to the ground. 

I suppose the simple reason was that you hadn't asked.  But joking aside we always come back to the same key point - HS 2 (misnamed tho' it is) - is about capacity not speed.  The latter is an incidental no doubt bolted on by 'somebody' to make it all sound more sexy for the politicos and peasants and it has of course gloriously backfired as the original point of HS 2 became lost.

 

When we talk about capacity we need to talk about the right capacity and not the wrong capacity as instanced by clown David Davis (and others ignoramuses) going on about the most overloaded trains in Britain (this week) being those between Glasgow and Manchester Airport.  What HS2 is about is line capacity - the ability to actually run trains and what it will do is free line capacity on the WCML by reducing the number of the fastest trains.  Differing speed characteristics make differing demands for capacity - a very simple example is the original situation of two successive Eurostars 'flighted' through the Channel Tunnel consuming 3 standard paths (a standard path is one a shuttle would use).  If the Eurostars were not flighted each would consume two paths.

 

If you adopt flighting on any section of railway line capacity is more efficiently used but that would be commercially unacceptable for numerous reasons - for example passenger train operators normally wish to provide some sort of spread of services so if there are two trains an hour to, say, Manchester, they would run at roughly 30 minutes apart from each other.  Run one immediately behind the other (= better use of line capacity) and markets are not so readily served.  Equally with stopping passenger trains of course (one of the worst capacity consumers of all on today's railways when they run on a mixed traffic railway) the operator wishes to reach the broadest market so trains run at intervals, not all in one flight.

 

The same problem occurs with freight trains.  While a mix of origins and destinations allows some flexibility and a possibility of flighting (as happens on the WCML at times) the other problem is that running them all at once makes less effective use of resources so costs rise - exponentially in some cases - and traffic is lost to other modes which can offer cheaper rates because they are able to use resources more efficiently.

 

Like it or not the WCML is very much a mixed traffic railway - the busiest (I think still) freight route into the London area because of geography and the distribution of industry etc, a busy route for long distance passenger trains, and an equally busy route (with commuter peaks) for local passenger trains.  Over the years capacity issues have been addressed by improving signalling but in many respects more importantly by adding additional running lines as that is really the only answer to differing trainspeed characteristics.  Thus south of Watford it grew to essentially a six track railway over 100 years  and has not changed since then.  The need now is basically for an extra pair of tracks but the most economic and least disruptive way of providing these is build a new railway - as ever it is more efficient to build on largely new ground than to adapt and add on existing land.

[The Stationmaster]

17 hours ago, APOLLO said:

Al this pallaver - and STILL Leigh Lancashire has no railway !!!!!

 

No HS2 station either !!

 

http://stophs2.org/news/6827-station-leigh

 

This is interesting

 

Meanwhile, Mr Grundy's fellow Conservative ward councillor Edward Houlton asked for the mayor's backing in a campaign to stop the HS2 railway line running through Lowton.

Mr Burnham said that although he supported the successful campaign which stopped the building of a HS2 depot in Golborne, he thinks the line will offer "opportunity" for the area.

 

https://www.leighjournal.co.uk/news/17467738.greater-manchester-mayor-determined-to-deliver-train-station-for-leigh/

 

Just wait till they find the Great Crested Newts at Bamfurlong  !!

 

Brit15

 

I sympathise but as my girlfriend of many years ago who lived in Leigh moved on to pastures new, and so did I of course, I doubt that I would make as much use of it as I once did.  And having the station at Kenyon Jcn sounds like a typically daft politico idea to me - it would solve nothing.

[brack]

3 hours ago, rockershovel said:

The building costs can be accurately predicted..... 

I live in a 120 year old house. Every time we take plaster off or boards up you find a new and inventive bodge that needs fixing.

 

Funnily enough it turns out the garage we're converting has no foundations under 40% of the walls (the idiots just built them on top of the concrete in the back yard, then later on raised the level of the yard with another inch of concrete, you dont find that til you dig through the concrete), which are to be knocked down, new foundations put in and new walls built. Guess what that did to the building costs?

 

As we're knocking holes in it we need to redo the kitchen but most of the appliances are made abroad, and theres some sort of idiotic ploy to devalue our currency and stuff up our imports happening at the moment, so whilst i can price things up now, i cant be sure those prices will be the same when I'm in a position to purchase and install them.

 

Now if we look at HS2, we have x amount of railways in that corridor, need more capacity, have a reasonable idea of what traffic will go on it, can price up costs now but as things go along there will likely be some increases. whilst obviously simplified it isn't a false analogy.

[APOLLO]

The recently opened "mis"guided busway is both a waste of money and a missed opportunity for Leigh. It should have been either a railway or a tram line extension. A station at Kenyon would be OK for neighbouring Culcheth but it, as The Stationmaster states, would be of very little help to Leigh - nearly five miles to the north by existing roads.

 

Funnily enough the HS2 link to Bamfurlong will pass close to Kenyon Jcn, using at this point the old Great Central Wigan line formation. When this line was built there were grand expectations of extending it north from Wigan that never came to fruition. Deja Vu !!

 

Brit15

[phil-b259]

4 hours ago, rockershovel said:

 

False analogy. The purposes of a garage are well known, along with its uses. The building costs can be accurately predicted..... 

 

 

NOT SO!

 

The evidence which gave rise to HS to is extremely clear - the equivalent of two completely new tracks is required berween Euston and the North Weat of England.

 

Its noteworthy that NONE of the naysayers have EVER produced do  shred of credible evidence to prove this is not the case.