HS2

[The Stationmaster]

On 21/10/2023 at 09:00, Compound2632 said:

 

Government being of course against increasing ASLEF membership.

No - there was a block on other TOCs//contractors in respect of ALL recruitment..  Just because they are Drivers doesn't automatically mean they will become ASLE&F members although the majority probably do.  Basically all down to the dumbos at Daft yet again proving that they haven't got the first idea of how a railway works. and pigignorant politicos joining in by criticising Druvers for not working their Rest Days.

[The Stationmaster]

On 21/10/2023 at 12:21, GordonC said:

 

their giving a damn only applies to the London area - the rest of the country is irrelevant

You wouldn't say that if you had to travel 30 miles on a Class 345 Liz Line tram with no toilets, plus stopping at almost every station and with minimal, next to useless, draught screens by the doors.

[GordonC]

5 minutes ago, The Stationmaster said:

You wouldn't say that if you had to travel 30 miles on a Class 345 Liz Line tram with no toilets, plus stopping at almost every station and with minimal, next to useless, draught screens by the doors.

 

They probably ran out of money to spend on the trains after gold-plating all the stations

[mac1960]

Well there is an interesting article in the Sunday Times today on HS2 . Whistleblowers are talking about costs for the train set at £100b+ Govt are talking of £50b. People who have tried to advise Govt of the real costs are being dismissed and there is a large cover up going on . I have a friend working on it, and that £100b is on the low side apparently they believe! 
 

There is no way this project should have been undertaken with these numbers in place it’s a huge White Elephant nay Mammoth and costs are just out of control. The UK cannot afford this type of grandiose projects. It’s time to get real as to  our position in the world and economic circumstances and stop believing some of the hype as to how important we are and what “ we need” to have eg Aircraft carriers, Ballistic Missile submarines or indeed an NHS in current form.

 

Some big decision need to be taken by the next Government of what ever colour and they are not going to be popular.

 

Mac

[John Tomlinson]

1 hour ago, mac1960 said:

Well there is an interesting article in the Sunday Times today on HS2 . Whistleblowers are talking about costs for the train set at £100b+ Govt are talking of £50b. People who have tried to advise Govt of the real costs are being dismissed and there is a large cover up going on . I have a friend working on it, and that £100b is on the low side apparently they believe! 
 

There is no way this project should have been undertaken with these numbers in place it’s a huge White Elephant nay Mammoth and costs are just out of control. The UK cannot afford this type of grandiose projects. It’s time to get real as to  our position in the world and economic circumstances and stop believing some of the hype as to how important we are and what “ we need” to have eg Aircraft carriers, Ballistic Missile submarines or indeed an NHS in current form.

 

Some big decision need to be taken by the next Government of what ever colour and they are not going to be popular.

 

Mac

 

Indeed yes, quite a long article after apparently months of investigation.

 

If our democracy is worth anything, this should raise serious questions from all political quarters, about oversight, governance and accountablility, all of which appear to be terribly lacking.

 

Looks like time for an independent no holds barred inquiry to me, with full access to all data and people.

 

John.

[Northmoor]

1 hour ago, GordonC said:

They probably ran out of money to spend on the trains after gold-plating all the stations

What is this gold-plating you refer to?  As far as I am concerned, the Elizabeth Line is how a proper, modern, high-density railway should look.  Or would you prefer it to have been built down to a price, hopelessly overcrowded after less than ten years and requiring enormously expensive construction to increase the capacity?

 

1 hour ago, mac1960 said:

Well there is an interesting article in the Sunday Times today on HS2 . Whistleblowers are talking about costs for the train set at £100b+ Govt are talking of £50b. People who have tried to advise Govt of the real costs are being dismissed and there is a large cover up going on . I have a friend working on it, and that £100b is on the low side apparently they believe! 
 

There is no way this project should have been undertaken with these numbers in place it’s a huge White Elephant nay Mammoth and costs are just out of control. The UK cannot afford this type of grandiose projects. It’s time to get real as to  our position in the world and economic circumstances and stop believing some of the hype as to how important we are and what “ we need” to have eg Aircraft carriers, Ballistic Missile submarines or indeed an NHS in current form.

 

Some big decision need to be taken by the next Government of what ever colour and they are not going to be popular.

 

Mac

Interested to know how one train set can cost the order of a £Bn.  It is likely that these are whole-life costs of the fleet - something talked about far too little in major procurement programmes - although it still seems quite steep.

 

Oh and I won't go off-topic to explain why we have Aircraft Carriers and SSBNs, but having been involved in a small way with procurement and operational support respectively of them both, if I were to explain what is actually achieved by both, you might even consider them to be a bargain.  The UK can and must be prepared to fund projects like HS2 (although I agree it has been very badly managed and crucially, promoted) unless we decide that as a nation, we have "given up" and the future UK is a quiet place only for people to retire in with valuable (mostly unearned capital gain or inherited) property and gold-plated pensions, where anything else is just a bit too much effort.

Edited October 22, 2023 by Northmoor

[chris p bacon]

2 hours ago, mac1960 said:

I have a friend working on it

 

Whenever I read/hear that I always think 'Oh yes, of course you do'  as you can't name them as they have to be anonymous, but yet they blabbed to you...🙄

[GordonC]

1 hour ago, Northmoor said:

What is this gold-plating you refer to?  As far as I am concerned, the Elizabeth Line is how a proper, modern, high-density railway should look.  Or would you prefer it to have been built down to a price, hopelessly overcrowded after less than ten years and requiring enormously expensive construction to increase the capacity?

 

Interested to know how one train set can cost the order of a £Bn.  It is likely that these are whole-life costs of the fleet - something talked about far too little in major procurement programmes - although it still seems quite steep.

 

Oh and I won't go off-topic to explain why we have Aircraft Carriers and SSBNs, but having been involved in a small way with procurement and operational support respectively of them both, if I were to explain what is actually achieved by both, you might even consider them to be a bargain.  The UK can and must be prepared to fund projects like HS2 (although I agree it has been very badly managed and crucially, promoted) unless we decide that as a nation, we have "given up" and the future UK is a quiet place only for people to retire in with valuable (mostly unearned capital gain or inherited) property and gold-plated pensions, where anything else is just a bit too much effort.

 

Cant find more up to date figures, but from 2021 https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/crossrail-huge-cost-hikes-at-three-stations-and-on-19-main-works-contracts-09-07-2021/

 

Whitechapel station - £831M

Paddington station - £685M

Bond Street station - £660M

Canary Wharf apparently had a £500M budget and needed £80M to finish

 

and a few more here from 2019 where costs would only go one way https://www.architectsjournal.co.uk/news/crossrail-huge-cost-hikes-on-stations-and-tunnels-revealed

 

Maybe it is how a modern, high-density railway should be, but if that is what gets spent on a single station in London then why cant 2 extra platforms be funded at Manchester Piccadilly to solve a bottleneck that affects large parts of the North of England. Around £800M it was estimated a few years ago. The money spent on Castlefield corridor was entirely wasted without dealing with the bottleneck further down the line.

 

The costs for HS2 may have initially been reasonable, but by the time all the objections to construction add in extra tunnelled sections it would be interesting to know how much that added on to original forecasts

 

Edited October 22, 2023 by GordonC

[mac1960]

Chris P Bacon

You may feel that, however as a 63 year old construction professional,  who has built quite a number of high profile projects World Wide, though  mostly airports  , only one rail station GMEX conversion for your information when a very young man,  I am quite happy that the person I know on HS 2, who I have worked with on a number of projects ,is well aware of a train wreck when they see one.
 I will not dream of naming them on a public web site , however I think you should make a point of reading the Sunday Times article and their research, which makes highly disturbing reading, and then come back on here and say they, and I are wrong. Indeed I am quite confident in their assessment so when it goes North of the one hundred mark on completion, you can come back on here and call me out assuming we are both still alive !
 

Mac

[APOLLO]

Story here also, mentions The Times investigations etc. (The Times article is behind a paywall). Very disturbing.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12658633/HS2-bosses-covered-ballooning-costs-high-speed-rail-line-telling-staff-lie-bid-billions-flowing-project-Probe-launched-allegations.html

 

Is it ime to halt construction / spending and put it into deep freeze untill we can actually afford it ?

 

Brit15

[jollysmart]

3 hours ago, mac1960 said:

Well there is an interesting article in the Sunday Times today on HS2 . Whistleblowers are talking about costs for the train set at £100b+ Govt are talking of £50b. People who have tried to advise Govt of the real costs are being dismissed and there is a large cover up going on . I have a friend working on it, and that £100b is on the low side apparently they believe! 
 

There is no way this project should have been undertaken with these numbers in place it’s a huge White Elephant nay Mammoth and costs are just out of control. The UK cannot afford this type of grandiose projects. It’s time to get real as to  our position in the world and economic circumstances and stop believing some of the hype as to how important we are and what “ we need” to have eg Aircraft carriers, Ballistic Missile submarines or indeed an NHS in current form.

 

Some big decision need to be taken by the next Government of what ever colour and they are not going to be popular.

 

Mac

 

Labour conference passed the motion the HS2 should be built in its entirety as originally proposed, so it is now presumably Labour policy.

[Ron Ron Ron]

12 minutes ago, jollysmart said:

 

Labour conference passed the motion the HS2 should be built in its entirety as originally proposed, so it is now presumably Labour policy.

They pass all sorts of motions at their conferences, even some just born of political dogma and a bit off the wall.

It’s what gets put into the party’s election manifesto that counts as policy.

So, we’ll just have to wait and see if any commitment to HS2 is included in the manifesto, next year.

There’s no guarantee that what’s in a manifesto, will be carried out of course.

 

.

[phil-b259]

On 21/10/2023 at 09:39, APOLLO said:

I was a strong supporter of HS2 up to recently. I'm not so sure of it now.

 

 

You need to be mindful that phase 1 of HS2 is not so much about what it offers in isolation-  its about the potential it has for future decades.

 

Its worth noting that the French TGV network was built on the basis of building sections at a time - not the whole railway in one go! The Paris - Lyon line for example could be thought of as akin to Phase 1 of HS2.

 

The Paris - Lyon section opened in 1982 - it took a further decade before it was extended further south with that extension opening in two stages (1992 & 1994) - which could be thought to equate to phase 2A of HS2 to Crewe in the UK.

 

Further extension of the French high speed line to the port City of  Marseille (which could be though to be analogous to Phase 2B of HS2 taking the UK line to Manchester) didn't open till 2001 - almost a full 20 years after the first French high speed line opened.

 

Another example of this is the High Speed line from Paris towards the west / South West.

 

Despite the initial section opening in 1990 - it wasn't extended for another 17 years!

 

As such just because the current Government has scraped the plans for further phases of HS2 that does not mean the bit of HS2 they are building (phase 1) is in itself flawed - it has the potential to act as a springboard from which further phases can emerge in future years if a fresh bunch of politicians decide to do something different. This is particularly true given the hardest bit to do with respect of UK based high speed rail is the initial section out of London*

 

 

*- unlike with HS1 in Kent, it is imperative that the initial HS2 leg out from London is NOT clogged up with stations of commuter services so as to leave space for long distance express services. As such you are faced with the politically difficult process of pushing through something that local residents will inevitably be opposed yet are unable to offer them any way of making use of the finished project.

 

 

[phil-b259]

39 minutes ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

They pass all sorts of motions at their conferences, even some just born of political dogma and a bit off the wall.

It’s what gets put into the party’s election manifesto that counts as policy.

So, we’ll just have to wait and see if any commitment to HS2 is included in the manifesto, next year.

There’s no guarantee that what’s in a manifesto, will be carried out of course.

 

.

 

Given the expected state of the nations finances, plus the perceived need to not repeat the Niel Kinnock experience* I am not expecting to see anything much in the Manifesto relating to HS2

 

Although there may well be some sort of vague statement which confirms Labours support to HS2 in principle I wouldn't expect them to start going round saying they would reverse the Torys decisions to cancel phase 2 lest it give said party ammunition that Labour are 'reckless' with the public finances.

 

The most I expect to get is a commitment to not sell off any property acquired for phase 2A and a commitment to seek ways to deliver the extension to Euston  (neither of which are particularity problematical in terms of public finance implications.

 

The real opportunity for HS2 will only come after an inital 5 year Labour term - when hopefully both the situation with the public finances will have improved and equally the Labour Government will have demonstrated to the centre right that it can be trusted.

 

 

 

* Where despite being ahead in the polls on the run up to the 1992 election he still lost and John Major got in with a wafer small majority. In that case I understand a big factor was the manifestos tax and spending plans  - a lesson Tony Blair took to heart and was very much the driving reason for him pledging to stick to Conservative public spending limits during his 1997 general election campaign. That enabled him to gather votes from centre right (sometimes called 'pink Tories') an liberals which is essential given the country as a whole has a slight pro Conservative bias

Edited October 22, 2023 by phil-b259

[phil-b259]

On 21/10/2023 at 10:48, melmerby said:

 

They've turned a flagship infrastructure project which would've paved the way for loads of improved services on the WCML, into a white elephant with little benefit outside the core route

 

Provided the link to the WCML at Handacre and an extension to Euston happens (which I remind you hasn't officially been cancelled and is still on the table subject to funding being found). then you statement is complete nonsense!

 

The link at Handsacre will allow ALL WCML destinations north of there to have through trains onto HS2!

 

Given the primary constants on WCML capacity at present are south of Rugby that means significantly MORE trains can be provided to the north west of England than would be the case if HS2 didn't exist.

 

 

[Ron Ron Ron]

Stoke Mandeville 22nd October (today).....

 

In this video, you can see that the Aylesbury - Princess Risborough HS2 line diversion has been completed and the old track bed is being removed and re-landscaped.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

[Jeremy Cumberland]

21 minutes ago, phil-b259 said:

Given the primary constants on WCML capacity at present are south of Rugby that means significantly MORE trains can be provided to the north west of England than would be the case if HS2 didn't exist.

The north west doesn't appear to need more trains to London. I have long suspected that the primary benefit will be to people living along the existing WCML, with more capacity being opened up to places like Northampton, Rugby and the Trent Valley.

[melmerby]

53 minutes ago, phil-b259 said:

Provided the link to the WCML at Handacre and an extension to Euston happens (which I remind you hasn't officially been cancelled and is still on the table subject to funding being found). then you statement is complete nonsense!

Sorry, I think you are wrong.

The truncated station at Euston (6 platforms now against 11, then 10, if it gets built), will struggle to cope with the predicted traffic flow.

Now that the Manchester & co. leg has been kicked into touch, services North of Brum will need to be classic compatible trains, so little or no opportunity for increased passenger numbers per train, compared to a fully HS2 spec train.

And for several years before then there will only be the 6 platforms at OOC. There is already a two years pause and now yet another redesign at Euston, leading to more delay.

That means IMHO there is a likelyhood of some WCML services, staying on the classic route.

 

Rishi Sunak said that Euston will only get built if private finance does it, that means there is still a possibility it will end at OOC = White Elephant.

This might change with the next incumbent of No.10 but nothing concrete has been stated by HM Leader of the Opposition.

 

Correction

6 platforms at OOC

Edited October 22, 2023 by melmerby

[Mark Saunders]

9 minutes ago, Jeremy Cumberland said:

The north west doesn't appear to need more trains to London. I have long suspected that the primary benefit will be to people living along the existing WCML, with more capacity being opened up to places like Northampton, Rugby and the Trent Valley.

The biggest problem with the current way of planning is the logic is everyone wants to go to London and have short journey times meaning that intermediate stations suffer along with many intermediate journeys. Berwick to Northallerton is a hard journey with forty minutes waiting at Darlington not being unusual! 
Too many trains for the amount of railway.

[Ron Ron Ron]

16 minutes ago, melmerby said:

......And for several years before then there will only be the 4 platforms at OOC......

 

Can I just correct you on that?

There will be 6 HS2 platforms at OOC, not 4.

 

 

.

[melmerby]

Just now, Ron Ron Ron said:

 

Can I just correct you on that?

There will be 6 HS2 platforms at OOC, not 4.

 

 

.

I must have read the wrong figure somewhere.

I've corrected that.

 

Not designed for terminatiing trains though. That will cause problems I assume?

 

[Railpassion]

Brunel was often way over budget, but built for the future. Paddington to Temple Meads was over twice the budget, but they had faith and let him build more.

 

Today, British engineers build some amazing transport infrastructure - just not enough in the UK. 

 

As for the story in the Sunday Times, they're not whistle-blowers, just grumblers. The purpose of the two page story is a contrived puff piece for Rishi Sunk. 

Each week they've been promoting him, but in the last few weeks, even at the ST, the penny is finally dropping. 

 

One thing is certain, Transport Policy, or what was left of it, is now in shreds.

Edited October 22, 2023 by Railpassion

[Mark Saunders]

10 minutes ago, Railpassion said:

 

One thing is certain Transport Policy, or what was left of it, is now in shreds.

The whole idea of the National interest and an economic policy are things of the past, the short sight saga based on election cycles has doomed the country! The great Carbon Dioxide saga recently shows how out of touch ministers were

[melmerby]

We now have a national transport policy based on the outcome of a by-election vote decided by ULEZ at some nationally insignificant London Borough.☹️

[Ron Ron Ron]

9 hours ago, melmerby said:

I must have read the wrong figure somewhere.

I've corrected that.

 

Not designed for terminatiing trains though. That will cause problems I assume?

 

OOC has been designed to allow trains to terminate and reverse.

The original plan was for the station to open a short time before Euston would be ready, with a limited service.

There are crossovers provided at Victoria Rd. to the west of the station and at the eastern end of the OOC platforms.

 

OOC would have operated as a temporary terminus if the Euston tunnels had to undergo maintenance or repair at any time in the future.

It couldn’t handle the original 18 tph envisioned with the line being completed to both Leeds and Manchester, but we are not getting that now.

 

With regard to dispersing arriving passengers….

The 8 platforms being built for the GWML side of the station, will see up to 24 tph (peak) on the Elizabeth Line, heading east across London, (at least half of which will be starting empty at OOC), in addition to some, most or all GWR trains calling there.

More than enough capacity to deal with half a dozen HS2 trains arriving every hour.

 

 

 

 

.

Edited October 23, 2023 by Ron Ron Ron