HS2

[adb968008]

5 hours ago, Bernard Lamb said:

Were will the surplus 350s go?

 

Same place as the class 175, mk5’s and 379’s….

nowhere.

 

we are reliving the 1970’s on our railways… slow wastage of assets, rundown and elimination of redundant assets and a general malaise.

Theres no money for electrification, battery tech is just not good enough and the diesel argument is lost.

So for now do nothing beyond shuffling fleets around in a form of house keeping mode.

 

The list of waste just keeps growing … 317,319,320,365,442,455,456,91,769,mk4, HST*

when you look at that list the common thread is most of it is wasted ACDC traction, its perverse to green credentials.

 

Most of which was with mid life, or recently overhauled, over 1500 passenger vehicles, over £1bn of wealth and long term investment prematurely thrown in the bin, added to our debts and will be paid for in taxes with interest… all in the name of savings of maybe a few million £ a year.

 

I can see the next axe grinding for 150/153/156 though.

 

I have to wonder about class 390’s now too… since Avanti axed the timetable utilisation will be down… will the axe arrive there too and we see some waste 390’s binned as well ? Those new Hitachi bimodes for Avanti seem unnecessary to me, feels more like voter protection in the  North East than a sound business requirement in the west coast.

 

we are in a strange place though where a class 175 has no work, despite completing a £40mn upgrade of it last year, but the class 230 is saved…proof its all just about lowest cost.

 

 

* excluded pacers, 313,314,315 arguably they were done and without mid-life overhauls expended on them.

Edited October 24, 2023 by adb968008

[APOLLO]

2 hours ago, Bernard Lamb said:

But some 319s are to be withdrawn before the 730s arrive, so it will get worse for a short time.

Were will the surplus 350s go?

 

Springs Branch with a bit of luck, send em all 'up ere !!  We'll need some to run the work in progress (3 men with one spade, and a part time sparkie) Bolton to Wigan NW electrification !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

319's also accepted, (In original or tatty boxes, no bother so long as the pantographs, couplings and bogies are still there, even loose in box as in Hattons speak !!).

 

The refurbed 319's we have are quite OK. Not sure of the bi modes though, they seem to struggle a bit when going up the (soon to be electrified whoopee !!) Miles Platting bank out of Manchester Victoria. But they get there, eventually, screaming, coughing and spluttering out obnoxious, planet warming gasses into the wet, miserable Manchester air !!!!

 

Just a thought. Some very expensive property was compulsory purchased for the Manchester leg in Cheshire etc. If these were not demolished & are to be resold at market value then it does not seem fair to the original owners who have lost out. Eminent Domain at work (You will own nothing and be happy)   !!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Such is the world.

 

Brit15

[adb968008]

The population increased around 8 million (c10%) between 2001 and 2021 census in England and Wales.

(Source census data.. 59.1mn to 67mn).

 

Vehicle ownership (figures run from 1997) has grown from c25mn to around 40mn between 1997 and 2022.

today thats just about 1 vehicle per adult.

 

Type of vehicle has changed… 

cars has a slow growth line, with adjustments in 2008 and 2016

new cars registered has fallen off a cliff since 2016… 33% down, people since 2016 stopped upgrading their cars.

 

Quote

At the end of December 2022, the average age of a licensed car in the UK was 9.1 years old, up 4 months compared to the end of December 2021

meaning 2013 reg’s is the average year.

 

 I’d imagine we will hit an car age crisis in the next three years… (which was the preBrexit upgrade cycle) as the volume of >10 year old cars really starts to become apparent as those 2016 decline in purchases hit the age figures, and 2020 reg maybe a bigger hit with the loss of company cars and rental registrations due to covid…by 2030 average car age might be 17 years old!

 

Whats up ?

 

Motorcycles 78% 

Light goods 101%

 

So we are buying less cars, which are getting much older faster, but takeaway food delivery and online shopping vehicles are growing exponentially…

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/vehicle-licensing-statistics-2022/vehicle-licensing-statistics-2022#licensed-vehicles-overview
 

Austerity created the pothole, Brexit widened it, Covid cemented it that charts dont lie.

 

in short.. were traveling less since 2016, but cars were already getting older from that point too, new bus registrations are down 14% too.

This is why HS2 was dropped..

 

The question is why did we stop travelling, and chose to keep our old cars, its a trend at least ten years old.

 

 

 

Edited October 24, 2023 by adb968008

[62613]

5 hours ago, chris p bacon said:

 

Is there just the slightest chance that you could quit with the politics, it gets really tiresome wading through post after post of the same cr@p.  

Sounds like a pretty good analysis to me! Oppositions don't "win" elections; governments "lose" them; in 1951, 1964, 1970, 1974, 1979, 1997, and 2010, the government lost because voters were tired of the direction of travel of the incumbents, to a certain degree, those incumbents had become stale and complacent, and/or there were external factors involved.

 

It's difficult to get away from politics when the whole topic of transport, as with everything else in the country is bound up in it; especially public railways, which have been "political" and subject to government regulation since their inception. 

Edited October 24, 2023 by 62613

[Bernard Lamb]

19 minutes ago, APOLLO said:

 

Springs Branch with a bit of luck, send em all 'up ere !!  We'll need some to run the work in progress (3 men with one spade, and a part time sparkie) Bolton to Wigan NW electrification !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

319's also accepted, (In original or tatty boxes, no bother so long as the pantographs, couplings and bogies are still there, even loose in box as in Hattons speak !!).

 

The refurbed 319's we have are quite OK. Not sure of the bi modes though, they seem to struggle a bit when going up the (soon to be electrified whoopee !!) Miles Platting bank out of Manchester Victoria. But they get there, eventually, screaming, coughing and spluttering out obnoxious, planet warming gasses into the wet, miserable Manchester air !!!!

 

Just a thought. Some very expensive property was compulsory purchased for the Manchester leg in Cheshire etc. If these were not demolished & are to be resold at market value then it does not seem fair to the original owners who have lost out. Eminent Domain at work (You will own nothing and be happy)   !!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Such is the world.

 

Brit15

That's where the fun starts.

Let us take a nice detached house at around £1m 2020 market value. HS2 buy it for £1.25m. The going rate of compensation according to informed sources. The house is still there but the land is no longer required. HS2 sell it in late 2023 as ordered by Rishi. What is it worth? £700k ? It is subject to planning blight. If the original owners have the cash they can buy it back. But it would be very difficult to get a mortgage. If you have the cash and want to speculate then there are potentially bargains to be had. Providing that legislation is brought in to remove the threat of the railway being reborn, the house becomes worth around £950k. Figures will vary in different parts of the country and at different times. However it is the same old story, money makes money, while the ret of us get shafted.

Bernard

Bernard 

[jjb1970]

I don't think cars have the same attraction for younger people as for older people. For people of my age cars were often seen as an aspirational product, a status symbol, glamour, something people were properly enthusiastic about. Younger people seem to have a different (and probably better) view of cars and many other things. My two teenagers aren't that fussed about cars, certainly not compared to the way I was at their age. 

[adb968008]

17 minutes ago, jjb1970 said:

I don't think cars have the same attraction for younger people as for older people. For people of my age cars were often seen as an aspirational product, a status symbol, glamour, something people were properly enthusiastic about. Younger people seem to have a different (and probably better) view of cars and many other things. My two teenagers aren't that fussed about cars, certainly not compared to the way I was at their age. 

To be fair in Singapore, the metro is excellant, so is the buses (and the food for that matter) and the government kind of has a high barrier to car ownership 🙂

[adb968008]

42 minutes ago, Bernard Lamb said:

That's where the fun starts.

Let us take a nice detached house at around £1m 2020 market value. HS2 buy it for £1.25m. The going rate of compensation according to informed sources. The house is still there but the land is no longer required. HS2 sell it in late 2023 as ordered by Rishi. What is it worth? £700k ? It is subject to planning blight. If the original owners have the cash they can buy it back. But it would be very difficult to get a mortgage. If you have the cash and want to speculate then there are potentially bargains to be had. Providing that legislation is brought in to remove the threat of the railway being reborn, the house becomes worth around £950k. Figures will vary in different parts of the country and at different times. However it is the same old story, money makes money, while the ret of us get shafted.

Bernard

Bernard 

Any sense the construction industry would buy it, sit on it and wait what the next government does.

 

 

[MJI]

49 minutes ago, 62613 said:

Sounds lika pretty good analysis to me! Oppositions don't "win" elections; governments "lose" them; in 1951, 1964, 1970, 1974, 1979, 1997, and 2010, the government lost because voters were tired of the direction of travel of the incumbents, to a certain degree, those incumbents had become stale and complacent, and/or there were external factors involved.

 

It's difficult to get away from politics when the whole topic of transport, as with everything else in the country is bound up in it; especially public railways, which have been "political" and subject to government regulation since their inception. 

 

Trying to not get political, but the general atmosphere seems to be a lot more clamouring for change now, than in 1997. A lot of it is simply fed up regardless of who is in power, people just want a change. Saying more would be politcal so leaving it there.

 

33 minutes ago, jjb1970 said:

I don't think cars have the same attraction for younger people as for older people. For people of my age cars were often seen as an aspirational product, a status symbol, glamour, something people were properly enthusiastic about. Younger people seem to have a different (and probably better) view of cars and many other things. My two teenagers aren't that fussed about cars, certainly not compared to the way I was at their age. 

 

I have noticed this too, all mid 20s and no cars between them.

[melmoth]

45 minutes ago, jjb1970 said:

I don't think cars have the same attraction for younger people as for older people. For people of my age cars were often seen as an aspirational product, a status symbol, glamour, something people were properly enthusiastic about. Younger people seem to have a different (and probably better) view of cars and many other things. My two teenagers aren't that fussed about cars, certainly not compared to the way I was at their age. 

 

Regardless of any of the environmental aspects, having your own car also tends to come somewhere behind being able to afford suitable accommodation and meet your utilities and food bills. I know that this isn't specifically a problem for younger generations, but given that this is a model railway site and therefore predicated on what people like to do with their 'disposable' income, it's worth bearing in mind. Cars are a luxury that an increasing number cannot afford.

[adb968008]

21 minutes ago, melmoth said:

 

Regardless of any of the environmental aspects, having your own car also tends to come somewhere behind being able to afford suitable accommodation and meet your utilities and food bills. I know that this isn't specifically a problem for younger generations, but given that this is a model railway site and therefore predicated on what people like to do with their 'disposable' income, it's worth bearing in mind. Cars are a luxury that an increasing number cannot afford.

If they cannot afford a car, then do they travel, do they need a train either ?

Most cars drive in a 5 mile radius of their home. (Shopping, school etc)

 

I wonder at somepoint if theres a case for flooding a metro area with fixed price ubers for a short radius at a price point and instant flexibility that it makes car ownership unattractive.

 

certainly since covid, my last trains home have cut back by an hour, making a late night in London difficult. First I was resigned to East Croydon, but after queuing to the early hours due to lack of taxis/ too many people with the same idea, and discovering the black cab fare home from Croydon was the same as an uber direct door to door from London, ive essentially switched mode from rail to uber to get home… put two people in the uber and both ways door to door have an advantage over train.

 

Multiply the number of available cars on the road, and manage the costs. the flexibility out weighs the desire to own a car.

Essentially rail becoming less frequent / more expensive risks making itself extinct, hS2 has shown this, it was purely an out of control cost decision, we cannot build railways in the UK any more because cost management has ballooned. but cars (especially electric) may yet do the same for personal car ownership… if you cannot afford a 10 year old car for £3k, your not going to be able to afford a 10 year old electric car for £15k… forget a new one at £60k…

This maybe why new car purchases are declining and average car age increasing.

 

Rails threat may not be the privately owned car in the future… it maybe Uber.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 24, 2023 by adb968008

[GordonC]

3 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Same place as the class 175, mk5’s and 379’s….

nowhere.

 

we are reliving the 1970’s on our railways… slow wastage of assets, rundown and elimination of redundant assets and a general malaise.

Theres no money for electrification, battery tech is just not good enough and the diesel argument is lost.

So for now do nothing beyond shuffling fleets around in a form of house keeping mode.

 

The list of waste just keeps growing … 317,319,365,442,455,456,91,769,mk4, HST*

when you look at that list the common thread is most of it is wasted ACDC traction, its perverse to green credentials.

 

Most of which was with mid life, or recently overhauled, over 1500 passenger vehicles, over £1bn of wealth and long term investment prematurely thrown in the bin, added to our debts and will be paid for in taxes with interest… all in the name of savings of maybe a few million £ a year.

 

I can see the next axe grinding for 150/153/156 though.

 

I have to wonder about class 390’s now too… since Avanti axed the timetable utilisation will be down… will the axe arrive there too and we see some waste 390’s binned as well ? Those new Hitachi bimodes for Avanti seem unnecessary to me, feels more like voter protection in the  North East than a sound business requirement in the west coast.

 

we are in a strange place though where a class 175 has no work, despite completing a £40mn upgrade of it last year, but the class 230 is saved…proof its all just about lowest cost.

 

 

* excluded pacers, 313,314,315 arguably they were done and without mid-life overhauls expended on them.

 

I'm not sure where they'd be going and hadn't seen anything announced, but I was getting the impression the Class 175s had somewhere else to go. The fact that 2 fire damaged vehicles had been sent off for repair would suggest that not only some of them had future employment, but all of them. There would have to be limited options of older vehicles to replace - Class 150s, 156s, 158s and/or HSTs or exporting abroad spring to mind?

 

It was the 321s, 365s and 442s that really surprised me in getting rid of them so soon - I would really have thought they'd have a lot more life in them. It really makes you wonder why things like the 331s were ordered when so many other mid-life units have been turned to razor blades so soon. I know the Covid downturn wasn't seen in advance, but there's still a quantity of redundant EMUs there.

 

I'd think some of the Class 220/221s might disappear sooner rather than later too. I'm not convinced they've ever been popular and with Hitatchi IETs for Avanti will get rid of theirs

Edited October 24, 2023 by GordonC

[GordonC]

2 hours ago, adb968008 said:

The population increased around 8 million (c10%) between 2001 and 2021 census in England and Wales.

(Source census data.. 59.1mn to 67mn).

 

Vehicle ownership (figures run from 1997) has grown from c25mn to around 40mn between 1997 and 2022.

today thats just about 1 vehicle per adult.

 

Type of vehicle has changed… 

cars has a slow growth line, with adjustments in 2008 and 2016

new cars registered has fallen off a cliff since 2016… 33% down, people since 2016 stopped upgrading their cars.

 

meaning 2013 reg’s is the average year.

 

 I’d imagine we will hit an car age crisis in the next three years… (which was the preBrexit upgrade cycle) as the volume of >10 year old cars really starts to become apparent as those 2016 decline in purchases hit the age figures, and 2020 reg maybe a bigger hit with the loss of company cars and rental registrations due to covid…by 2030 average car age might be 17 years old!

 

Whats up ?

 

Motorcycles 78% 

Light goods 101%

 

So we are buying less cars, which are getting much older faster, but takeaway food delivery and online shopping vehicles are growing exponentially…

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/vehicle-licensing-statistics-2022/vehicle-licensing-statistics-2022#licensed-vehicles-overview
 

Austerity created the pothole, Brexit widened it, Covid cemented it that charts dont lie.

 

in short.. were traveling less since 2016, but cars were already getting older from that point too, new bus registrations are down 14% too.

This is why HS2 was dropped..

 

The question is why did we stop travelling, and chose to keep our old cars, its a trend at least ten years old.

 

 

 

 

There's a graph of annual new car registrations here (https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/) and the changes do look quite stark.

 

Covid will have greatly changed working practices and finances so a drop since then is quite understandable and with the current cost-of-living crisis then buying a new car will probably be on less peoples minds. Would online shopping and remote working (it did happen before Covid too, but to a lesser extent) before then have reduced demand? and perhaps an aging population? would there be less older people driving and replacing cars since 2015?

 

[GordonC]

1 hour ago, MJI said:

 

Trying to not get political, but the general atmosphere seems to be a lot more clamouring for change now, than in 1997. A lot of it is simply fed up regardless of who is in power, people just want a change. Saying more would be politcal so leaving it there.

 

 

I have noticed this too, all mid 20s and no cars between them.

 

Are cars less affordable now than they would have been in the past?

 

[melmerby]

5 minutes ago, GordonC said:

 

Are cars less affordable now than they would have been in the past?

 

I think most things are less affordable than they were a decade or two back

[Ron Ron Ron]

Even before the recent economic turndowns and the highly damaging economic outfall from COVID, people were already beginning to hold on to their cars for much longer.

Simply put, cars today are of a far higher build and engineered quality than in past decades.

The don’t rust away at the first sign of a rain shower, they don’t break down anywhere near as often and they last for much longer.

It’s not some incremental improvement either. Modern day cars are light years ahead of what we had 20, 30 or more years ago.

 

Not only has the average age of the nation’s car fleet increased, but so has the average lifetime, before scrapping.

An increasing proportion of cars that are scrapped, are taken off the road because it’s not economically viable to repair them, expensive mechanical parts have worn out and need replacing, or the components needed are no longer available. Not because they’ve structurally failed or rusted away.

 

The advent of electric vehicles could see the useable lifetime of cars being at least doubled.

 

 

 

.

Edited October 24, 2023 by Ron Ron Ron

[martin_wynne]

1 hour ago, adb968008 said:

If they cannot afford a car, then do they travel, do they need a train either ?

 

The most important station they need to get to is the polling station. If a few more young people did that, and governments knew it, we wouldn't be in the present mess.

 

Martin.

[melmoth]

15 minutes ago, martin_wynne said:

 

The most important station they need to get to is the polling station. If a few more young people did that, and governments knew it, we wouldn't be in the present mess.

 

Martin.

 

Arguably the current administration are aware of this, which is why their voter ID reforms were disproportionately weighted against the young when it came to what would be accepted as a valid form of photo-ID: OAP bus passes, yes; Young Persons Railcard, no.

[adb968008]

36 minutes ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

Even before the recent economic turndowns and the highly damaging economic outfall from COVID, people were already beginning to hold on to their cars for much longer.

Simply put, cars today are of a far higher build and engineered quality than in past decades.

The don’t rust away at the first sign of a rain shower, they don’t break down anywhere near as often and they last for much longer.

It’s not some incremental improvement either. Modern day cars are light years ahead of what we had 20, 30 or more years ago.

 

Not only has the average age of the nation’s car fleet increased, but so has the average lifetime, before scrapping.

An increasing proportion of cars that are scrapped, are taken off the road because it’s not economically viable to repair them, expensive mechanical parts have worn out and need replacing, or the components needed are no longer available. Not because they’ve rusted away.

 

The advent of electric vehicles could see the useable lifetime of cars being at least doubled.

 

.

Or halved if getting replacement batteries after a few years isn't affordable.

charging a 10 year old car for 12 hours to get just 5 miles on a cold day isnt going to be fun.. 80p a kw just to see it evapourate.

 

 

[adb968008]

23 minutes ago, martin_wynne said:

 

The most important station they need to get to is the polling station. If a few more young people did that, and governments knew it, we wouldn't be in the present mess.

 

Martin.

Just saw that in Poland… 70% electoral turnout to throw out a government that was heading autocratic.

It was the youth that made a difference.

 

Revolutions are rarely caused by older people, its always the younger generation that force change.

 

 

[Ron Ron Ron]

21 minutes ago, martin_wynne said:

 

The most important station they need to get to is the polling station. If a few more young people did that, and governments knew it, we wouldn't be in the present mess.

 

Martin.

 

 

When there are no sensible choices to make, what difference is that going to make?

Can we rely on the choice of inexperienced, unrealistic, idealistic and increasingly today, deluded younger voters?

It's bad enough when the same attributes apply to many of us older voters.

 

.

[adb968008]

7 minutes ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

 

 

When there are no sensible choices to make, what difference is that going to make?

Can we rely on the choice of inexperienced, unrealistic, idealistic and increasingly today, deluded younger voters?

It's bad enough when the same attributes apply to many of us older voters.

 

.

As I said, disaffected youth is what forces change…

 

They werent elderly waving walking sticks at the Maiden in Ukraine in 2014… 

it was dock workers in Poland in 1980.

 

They didn't have a script, just a trigger… after the fuse was lit events unfolded themselves and they have to figure it out, but as with everything its only down to will of the people and the direction they want to go… at least in a free world… the students in Beijing werent so lucky.

 

The trouble in this country as good enough makes people fat and lazy… to get real change you need to starve, right now anyone who wants one can find at least a basic job… moaning and starving arent the same thing.

Edited October 24, 2023 by adb968008

[62613]

1 hour ago, adb968008 said:

If they cannot afford a car, then do they travel, do they need a train either ?

Most cars drive in a 5 mile radius of their home. (Shopping, school etc)

 

I wonder at somepoint if theres a case for flooding a metro area with fixed price ubers for a short radius at a price point and instant flexibility that it makes car ownership unattractive.

 

certainly since covid, my last trains home have cut back by an hour, making a late night in London difficult. First I was resigned to East Croydon, but after queuing to the early hours due to lack of taxis/ too many people with the same idea, and discovering the black cab fare home from Croydon was the same as an uber direct door to door from London, ive essentially switched mode from rail to uber to get home… put two people in the uber and both ways door to door have an advantage over train.

 

Multiply the number of available cars on the road, and manage the costs. the flexibility out weighs the desire to own a car.

Essentially rail becoming less frequent / more expensive risks making itself extinct, hS2 has shown this, it was purely an out of control cost decision, we cannot build railways in the UK any more because cost management has ballooned. but cars (especially electric) may yet do the same for personal car ownership… if you cannot afford a 10 year old car for £3k, your not going to be able to afford a 10 year old electric car for £15k… forget a new one at £60k…

This maybe why new car purchases are declining and average car age increasing.

 

Rails threat may not be the privately owned car in the future… it maybe Uber.

 

Since I retired and have an old git's bus pass, I do use the bus more; if I pay £10 add - on, I get free travel on train and tram as well, so in fact, I also use the train more. I walk a lot more as well. But the main thing that seems to have changed me is that I have an adult tricycle, with pedal - assist; it means that for most short journeys (up to about 4 miles) I use that instead. Obviously, the limiting factor is battery capacity, but I've managed the 20 miles into Manchester and back on a couple of occasions. But for supermarket top - up trips, visits to local meetings, football and so on, it's ideal. The only problems are the odd loons who get a bit close when they are overtaking, or the one that almost left - hooked my wife on Ashton Old Road the other week

 

 

 

[martin_wynne]

3 minutes ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

 

When there are no sensible choices to make, what difference is that going to make?

Can we rely on the choice of inexperienced, unrealistic, idealistic and increasingly today, deluded younger voters?

It's bad enough when the same attributes apply to many of us older voters.

.

 

If it was thought young folk would affect the result, there would be sensible choices. They have all grown up with brains undamaged by tetraethyl lead. They are not as daft as they sometimes look.

 

Martin.

[admiles]

2 hours ago, melmoth said:

 

Regardless of any of the environmental aspects, having your own car also tends to come somewhere behind being able to afford suitable accommodation and meet your utilities and food bills. I know that this isn't specifically a problem for younger generations, but given that this is a model railway site and therefore predicated on what people like to do with their 'disposable' income, it's worth bearing in mind. Cars are a luxury that an increasing number cannot afford.

 

I see things in a slightly different way. Several of my friends have teenage and low-20's kids and car ownership is very important to them. Most have much newer/nicer cars than I (and my friends) had at their age. This is primarily because they don't see there's any way of them getting on the housing ladder so they spend on a decent car instead.

 

That said this is in rural Suffolk where public transport is for the most part non-existent and you have to travel reasonable distances to jobs/shops etc. I guess if you live in a city your view will be different.