Post Covid19 (astrologers need not apply)

[jonny777]

On 06/05/2020 at 22:31, 34theletterbetweenB&D said:

 

 

 

It will be possible to estimate the true impact of Covid by the excess deaths over the projected deaths extrapolated from past data using recognised modelling techniques. I suspect the impact will prove to be less than the raw death count suggests: this virus is quite literally 'just one more infection' that is most dangerous to those with existing health deficits. (The bald and unpopular fact underlying this is that you will die, something - often the effect of multiple factors - will bring your life to an end.)

 

 

I have been keeping an eye on those figures via the ONS website, although they tend to run about a fortnight behind - not surprisingly as they are having to collate death registrations from all areas. 

 

On their latest figures (for mid-April) https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases

 

The death registrations are running at slightly above double the normal which would be expected at this time of year. Unsurprisingly, deaths peak in winter and fall through spring and into summer down to around 9000 per week. 

 

The latest figures show about 22,000 deaths for that period in April, which would imply that Covid was responsible for around 11,000 registered extra deaths in that particular week. However, some confusion arises over the distinction between 'caused by' and 'tested positive for' the Covid virus, as it is notifiable whereas ordinary influenza is not. 

 

I am hoping that the numbers for the weeks into May will show a marked decrease in the excess over average category which will give me a little optimism to venture out more once we are allowed to do so. I am now on extremely familiar terms with every square foot of my garden. 

 

 

 

[PenrithBeacon]

There's an awful lot of paranoia being expressed on this thread, please lighten up.

Not much is going to change at least in the short term. We are about to have the deepest recession ever and the government is going to be preoccupied with that. When it's over a good many familiar companies will have ceased trading and the economy will have reinvented itself as something different, because that's what capitalism does it adapts to changed circumstances. Whether public opinion will change is another matter, I don't think it will much but I would doubt if the current Covid-19 crisis will have much of an effect on the next general election. 

It's the economy stupid!

Cheers

[rockershovel]

What jjb1970 said, above. 

 

No modern political party is either Right, or Left as the terms are generally understood or used. This is neither accidental, nor unintentional, and is a testimony to the inability and/or lack of will to grasp political concepts, common among the British (and particularly, the English) 

 

It is not accidental; nor has it been imposed by force. Blair’s sweeping electoral victory in 1997 was based upon the popular appeal of an end to the fratricidal struggle between the Right, and the Old Left. Nor was it new; Harold Macmillan had proposed the Third Way in a book written and published in 1938, and would return to it as PM (under the name One Nation Conservatism). 

 

What WAS new, was that Labour would fall under the influence of the New Left in the 1960s. Macmillan and Callaghan, figures from an earlier world, could recognise that their time was played out, and step aside; the New Left recognises no such concept. 

[Ohmisterporter]

With regard to the comments about the treatment of whistleblowers and the risk to one's career when doing so; they treat them differently in Russia.

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/two-russian-doctors-dead-one-hospitalized-falling-out-of-windows-2020-5?r=US&IR=T

Edited May 8, 2020 by Ohmisterporter

[Gibbo675]

Just now, Ohmisterporter said:

With regard to the comments about the treatment of whistleblowers and the risk to one's career when doing so; the treat them differently in Russia.

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/two-russian-doctors-dead-one-hospitalized-falling-out-of-windows-2020-5?r=US&IR=T

Hi Geoff,

 

You damned right they treat them differently in Russia, Dr David Kelly was nowhere near a window, he found dead in a field as I remember !

 

Gibbo.

[Ohmisterporter]

Yes Gibbo, I was trying to think of his name when you beat me to it. 

[Phil Parker]

34 minutes ago, PenrithBeacon said:

There's an awful lot of paranoia being expressed on this thread, please lighten up.

Not much is going to change at least in the short term. We are about to have the deepest recession ever and the government is going to be preoccupied with that. When it's over a good many familiar companies will have ceased trading and the economy will have reinvented itself as something different, because that's what capitalism does it adapts to changed circumstances. Whether public opinion will change is another matter, I don't think it will much but I would doubt if the current Covid-19 crisis will have much of an effect on the next general election. 

It's the economy stupid!

Cheers

 

That's easy to say if you aren't one of the millions who will soon find themselves out of work in that deep recession. Or you own one of the many thousands of businesses that will vanish. 

 

Long term this might be an interesting even in history but right now, on a personal level, it could be very, very bad indeed. The government can't pay 25% of the populations salary for very long. 80% of our economy is the very vulnerable service sector, most of which is out of action. 

 

A complete financial crash where government can't pay pensions or salaries isn't to hard to picture. That's why they are trying to gradually restart the economy. The hope is that businesses who can, will find a way to work within the new safe ways of working  some already are. Remember, this virus will be with us forever. 

[Gibbo675]

2 hours ago, rockershovel said:

The late James Callaghan once said that from time to time, a “sea change” occurs in politics, and those in office are powerless to influence it. He put the interval at “thirty years or so” but it seems more like twenty - 1979, 1997, 2016. The problems and contradictions just build up, the tensions increase and there is a general realignment. 

 

We seem to be living through such a period now.

 

Nothing effective was done about the problems which burst forth in 2007 (Northern Rock) and in the financial world (mortgage over-lending, over-trading In increasingly complex and unsound “derivative products”) leading to the 2008 crisis, and these problems are still with us. Uncontrolled mass immigration has passed beyond any semblance of order. Obsessions with “hate speech” and its derivatives run amok in Westminster, while discontent spreads in the country and the police take it upon themselves to act as arbiters of public thought, rather than addressing ever-rising levels of violent crime and drug dealing. 

 

The housing market continues to be over-inflated by speculative syndicates from overseas, and tax evasion through offshore havens remains rampant among the wealthy. Privatisation has become a litany of failure, from Olympic security to the railways, whilst those responsible cry ever more loudly for more, and more public money. Interest rates remain at zero, or as near zero as makes no difference, while usury in the form of consumer lending grows apace. 

 

The systematic destruction and erosion of employment rights continues unabated. Public utility sales (Royal Mail) are rushed through Parliament without scrutiny, while already-privatised utilities like the railways become hopelessly dependent on the public purse. 

 

I don’t quite know how to describe the aftermath of the 2016 Referendum, but it certainly gave a clear demonstration of a ruling elite which had completely lost the power to govern, and this continues into the present shenanigans. 

 

The electorate have simply had enough. I rather suspect that the current nonsense will prove to be the balance point at which the consensus will simply break down, and new players emerge. It won’t be easy, because the incumbents have sought to protect themselves by removing or jamming the mechanisms by which such realignments occur: but I think we will see radical change, quite soon.

 

 

 

 

16 minutes ago, rockershovel said:

What jjb1970 said, above. 

 

No modern political party is either Right, or Left as the terms are generally understood or used. This is neither accidental, nor unintentional, and is a testimony to the inability and/or lack of will to grasp political concepts, common among the British (and particularly, the English) 

 

It is not accidental; nor has it been imposed by force. Blair’s sweeping electoral victory in 1997 was based upon the popular appeal of an end to the fratricidal struggle between the Right, and the Old Left. Nor was it new; Harold Macmillan had proposed the Third Way in a book written and published in 1938, and would return to it as PM (under the name One Nation Conservatism). 

 

What WAS new, was that Labour would fall under the influence of the New Left in the 1960s. Macmillan and Callaghan, figures from an earlier world, could recognise that their time was played out, and step aside; the New Left recognises no such concept. 

Hi Mr Shovel,

 

Two of the more reasoned posts so far upon this whole thread, it would seem that you are in quite a minority that recognises that the political, financial and economic effects are actually the main event and that Covid-19, as serious as it is, is one hell of a distraction from the changes that are beginning to occur. I say beginning as they will play out over the next year and a half to two years before finally and fully stabilising in about 2030.

 

How many people are aware the Third Way as noted by yourself above came from a document called, "Europaische WirtschaftGermeinschaft" and was authored by Dr Funk working under Reich-minister Hjalmar Schacht in 1942.

 

http://www.jar2.com/Files/Nazism/The_Europeische_Wirtschaftsgemeinchaft_Berlin_1942.pdf

 

As an aside it is interesting that you note that there are approximate twenty year cycles that effect world events, this is because that is approximately how long it is between the cycles in which Jupiter and Saturn are conjunct. Even more powerful influences are afoot in that Pluto joins the mix when it was at 22* of Capricorn at the time of the Jupiter Saturn Conjunction.

 

To quote form one of the below links:

 

"The last time Pluto transited Capricorn was 1762-1777, the time of the American Revolution and the onset of the industrial revolution, which brought about massive upheavals in society ."

 

https://faysastrology.wordpress.com/saturn-pluto-conjunction/

 

https://faysastrology.wordpress.com/saturn-in-capricorn/

 

https://faysastrology.wordpress.com/pluto-in-capricorn/

 

It is getting weird and the reasons are even more weird than what I have just posted !

 

Gibbo.

[Nearholmer]

30 minutes ago, Gibbo675 said:

It is getting weird

You can say that again.

 

A contribution that amounts to prophesying the rise of National Socialism and a contribution that cites astrology.

 

Cheerio chaps; I hope you enjoy whatever time might be left in this thread that I now doubt the wisdom of starting.

 

Kevin

[rockershovel]

I’ve just been listening to the latest instalment of this insanity. 

 

So... on account of a pandemic which by its own studies, is NOT a high consequence infectious disease https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid   the government are precipitating the greatest economic setback of modern times? 

 

The same government commissioned a full study of such an event, several years ago https://www.england.nhs.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/board-paper-300317-item-10.pdf.  but appear to have completely ignored its conclusions, and its delegated body (PHE) may find itself in the High Court as a result of this.

 

They are ignoring basic principles of epidemic control, such as closing the borders (which has still not been done, nor does it appear to be under consideration). They have belatedly started blustering about a “contact-tracing app” which has been used successfully in the Far East, THEN started talking about an app “developed by the NHS” and NOW they are talking about “using the google or Apple one” which could have been done weeks ago. 

 

The “scientific adviser” at the heart of all this does NOT appear to be a recognised expert in his field, has been found wanting in the past, and has now been dismissed for what might be euphemised as “personal reasons” 

 

Whatever else the police have, or have not achieved, they have scored the worst own-goal imaginable in terms of public relations. 

 

Quite how the government proposes to extricate us from this mess, I cannot imagine. 

 

 

So where do we go from here? Given the overall situation, I’d rather feel that it defies prediction. However I’d also feel that it’s a safe bet that this administration will not last its full term, or anything near it. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[vaughan45]

2 hours ago, rockershovel said:

Quite how the government proposes to extricate us from this mess, I cannot imagine. 

 

Simples, you release the lockdown, let the achievement of herd immunity do it's worst, only treat people in hospital that have a good chance of survival so the NHS is not overloaded. Covid -19 will kill off much of the population over 65 reducing the demand on the treasury for state pensions and at the same time balance the books of the private and employer based pension schemes. It will also help solve the growing demands on the social care and care home sectors.

 

This is already happening anyway as many elderly people or their relatives (particularly those in care homes) will have signed a 'Do Not Resuscitate' form in the past so are unlikely to be admitted to hospital and would just be given end of life care in their place of residence. 

 

And before anyone comments, I am someone in the above group and deemed to be extremely vulnerable by the NHS, so probably won't be treated and realistically don't expect to be around in 12 months.

Edited May 8, 2020 by vaughan45

[PenrithBeacon]

3 hours ago, Phil Parker said:

 

That's easy to say if you aren't one of the millions who will soon find themselves out of work in that deep recession. Or you own one of the many thousands of businesses that will vanish. 

 

Long term this might be an interesting even in history but right now, on a personal level, it could be very, very bad indeed. The government can't pay 25% of the populations salary for very long. 80% of our economy is the very vulnerable service sector, most of which is out of action. 

 

A complete financial crash where government can't pay pensions or salaries isn't to hard to picture. That's why they are trying to gradually restart the economy. The hope is that businesses who can, will find a way to work within the new safe ways of working  some already are. Remember, this virus will be with us forever. 

Actually it isn't easy to say, but unless there is an alternative to capitalism, which after a lifetime of longing for it I'm obliged to say there isn't, we are just going to have to grimace and bear it, sorry. Left field economists keep on proposing how to make it work better, but none have yet proposed a viable alternative. So we're stuffed.

The virus may or may not be with us forever, not enough is known about it yet, but we will know soon enough I suppose. It wouldn't be the first virus to appear, wreek havoc and then disappear. It won't be the last either, the greatest risk to humanity is not nuclear war but disease.

Cheerful aren't I? The sooner life gets back to 'normal' the sooner my gloom will go away. But then what will pass for normality might be very different.

Regards

[APOLLO]

3 hours ago, rockershovel said:

I’ve just been listening to the latest instalment of this insanity. 

 

So... on account of a pandemic which by its own studies, is NOT a high consequence infectious disease https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid   the government are precipitating the greatest economic setback of modern times? 

 

The same government commissioned a full study of such an event, several years ago https://www.england.nhs.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/board-paper-300317-item-10.pdf.  but appear to have completely ignored its conclusions, and its delegated body (PHE) may find itself in the High Court as a result of this.

 

They are ignoring basic principles of epidemic control, such as closing the borders (which has still not been done, nor does it appear to be under consideration). They have belatedly started blustering about a “contact-tracing app” which has been used successfully in the Far East, THEN started talking about an app “developed by the NHS” and NOW they are talking about “using the google or Apple one” which could have been done weeks ago. 

 

The “scientific adviser” at the heart of all this does NOT appear to be a recognised expert in his field, has been found wanting in the past, and has now been dismissed for what might be euphemised as “personal reasons” 

 

Whatever else the police have, or have not achieved, they have scored the worst own-goal imaginable in terms of public relations. 

 

Quite how the government proposes to extricate us from this mess, I cannot imagine. 

 

 

So where do we go from here? Given the overall situation, I’d rather feel that it defies prediction. However I’d also feel that it’s a safe bet that this administration will not last its full term, or anything near it. 

 

Not just our government either - it's a similar picture worldwide.

 

One of the first Covid-19 cases outside China was in Thailand back around January. At that time there were over 20,000 Chinese from the Wuhan area on holiday there. For some unexplained reason (suggested to be hot and humid air, ways Thais greet - no touching, or hand shakes etc), Thailand has of today only 3000 confirmed cases, 2784 recovered and only 55 deaths, yet the government over there has also shut down the economy, shut down tourism, instigated lockdown and even a night time curfew countrywide - (does this disease only come out at night ?) -  They even had an alcohol sales ban for a few weeks over easter (Thai new year).

 

I agree Italy, France & USA etc have been and still are hit hard, and we in the UK were late to the lockdown / test etc procedures. What happened transferring OAP's from hospital to care homes without testing was verging on criminal. Also no testing / PPE / quarantine etc of hundreds of people still arriving by air daily. Just not good enough.

 

Things seem not quite right, I'm looking forward to (hopefully) getting rid of Covid via a vaccine etc -  but NOT looking forward to the economic and political aftermath - New world order set up in progress ?  Cashless society soon ? - Never let a  crisis go to waste !!!!!

 

Brit15

[PenrithBeacon]

I've been reading the last few posts and people are losing perspective on this.

I'm a lifelong Labour voter, I've no political axe to grind, but I really think that there isn't a conspiracy here, these are people who are doing their best in unprecedented circumstances and they have got much right and somethings very wrong, but who for goodness sake can say that anyone else would do better?

Some governments seem to have but most are extremely authoritarian in normal times and they rule countries that I most certainly wouldn't want to live in because of their political systems and attitudes to human rights.

After this is over, there will be an inquiry and lessons will be learnt. But, and this is the rub, will future generations learn from our experience in 2020 or just go their own way when this situation is replicated as it most certainly will in the future.

We live in a very interconnected world in all respects physically and intellectually, we can't ignore this or pass it of as a one-off it's going to happen again.

Regards

[Sol]

Australia shut its borders reasonably quickly & anyone coming in has to be quarantined for 14 days, even Aussies returning home - even some border restrictions between States with non-essential travelers turned back. Some restrictions being lifted after this weekend  with some shops being opened up again - so far just over 7000 infections & 97 deaths. Social isolation was also in force & still will be for some time.

 

[iL Dottore]

Amongst all the uncertainties thrown up by the pandemic, one thing is clear: we are due for a major societal upheaval. At the time that PC/Computer use started to become ubiquitous, pundits opined that the PC “revolution” would be as significant, far reaching and impactful as the Industrial Revolution, the French Revolution or the Russian Revolution. However, the PC revolution has been a very slow process and, I would argue, only now are all the various strands coming together.
Take, for example, working from home: technologically, we could have been working from home on a regular basis for at least a decade, but a majority of companies and organisations were very much “anti-“ (something I believe due to management perceiving it as leading to a loss of control should people work from home). Yet now, working from home - for those who can - has turned out to be a much better, more productive and enjoyable experience than commuting into an office to do the same thing in less congenial surroundings. I foresee considerable resistance to “going back to the office” if perceived as not really necessary.

Other PC fuelled developments shown, by the pandemic, to be game changers include semi-autonomous robots (doing work previously done by low skilled humans), social media (for its surveillance and tracking capabilities) and 3D printing (for many things, nowadays, having a factory for production can be replaced by a 3D printer - with concomitant Job losses).

As computer systems, algorithms and software become incredibly more sophisticated and versatile, we’re heading towards a low employment society, machines replacing humans in a majority of occupations. This is not necessarily A Bad Thing, if and I repeat if governments are clear thinking with the political will necessary to make those changes needed to manage a low employment society.
One way to manage a low employment society would be to provide everybody with a Universal Basic Income, an income that is deposited into a person’s bank account once a month by a central computer and comes with absolutely no strings attached. By eliminating the huge bureaucracy at the DWP and elsewhere (with everyone receiving an income with no strings attached and therefore no need to evaluate, control, sanction or otherwise monitor, such large and costly bureaucracies will no longer be needed), significant savings can be made by the government, savings that can be ploughed back into UBI. Taxes, of course, will be continued to be raised through VAT, business rates and the like. UBI without strings attached would mean that anyone who wants to do extra work and therefore boost their personal income can do so and such extra income, above and beyond the UBI, would be taxable.

However, I can see significant resistance to UBI from quite a few quarters: From businesses who would realise that they would have to provide better terms, conditions and salaries to their employees or their employees would simply walk away; to large public organisations and their unions who would see the majority of their bureaucratic fiefdoms dismantled.

And, now, I understand - better than before - why the phrase “may you live in interesting times” is used by the Chinese as a curse (or so I have read).

[rockershovel]

My long-term experience of remote working is that as an environment for eroding and destroying training, development and job security, it has few equals. 

 

Be careful what you wish for, in case you get it. 

[vaughan45]

Interestingly for people like myself who are 'shielding' I see the government have quietly changed the advice on their website from "12 weeks" from 3rd week in March, to "at least the end of June".

 

Whilst thankfully I haven't needed to use the support network that was established, it will be interesting to see how they maintain this as they encourage everyone to go back to work, particularly as many have other roles in local authorities or were volunteering whilst on the government furlough scheme?

Edited May 9, 2020 by vaughan45
spelling error

[rockershovel]

13 minutes ago, vaughan45 said:

Interestingly for people like myself who are 'shielding' I see the government have quietly changed the advice on their website from "12 weeks" from 3rd week in March, to "at least the end of June".

 

Whilst thankfully I haven't needed to use the support network that was established, it will be interesting to see how they maintain this as they encourage everyone to go back to work, particularly as many have other roles in local authorities or were volunteering whilst on the government furlough scheme?

 

I rather suspect that this is how it will end - in a progressive collapse while the government say one thing, and do quite another. It was quickly apparent that they had not thought through or appreciated, the likely consequences of the furlough scheme. Businesses are not charities, and with the elaborate charade of “2m apart”, Perspex screens, public transport in disarray and supply chains not working fully, who will want to open? 

[SM42]

Whilst there is no doubt the future will look very different from an economic perspective and many will be sufffering from the non medical effects for many years to come, I take some comfort in the fact that here we are, around 10 years after the last major outbreak of a similar virus (SARS) and, until recently, life in those areas of the world worst affected by that virus, for which there remains no cure of vaccine,  had returned to what we would call normal.

 

People crammed onto rush hour trains, people got on areoplanes,  people worked in large factories, people went to bars, clubs, cinemas and theatres and people socialised with their friends, relatives, colleagues and total strangers.

 

In time all this will return.  It won't be quick and it won't be easy.

 

We just have to hope and pray that the cost (in both lives and finance)  can be kept to a minimum

 

 

Andy

[phil-b259]

On 08/05/2020 at 13:43, Gibbo675 said:

 

 

 

As an aside it is interesting that you note that there are approximate twenty year cycles that effect world events, this is because that is approximately how long it is between the cycles in which Jupiter and Saturn are conjunct. Even more powerful influences are afoot in that Pluto joins the mix when it was at 22* of Capricorn at the time of the Jupiter Saturn Conjunction.

 

To quote form one of the below links:

 

"The last time Pluto transited Capricorn was 1762-1777, the time of the American Revolution and the onset of the industrial revolution, which brought about massive upheavals in society ."

 

 

 

Or how about the more practical reason - By the time a person attains 20 years of age they can vote!

 

If you have grown up under one party / doctrine / etc and hate it them that first general election that happens after you turn 18 is your chance to change things.

 

Throughout my childhood the ALL governments were Conservative ones and by the mid 1990s I was desperate for them to be kicked out because of their europhobic party 'grandees', their obsession with privatisation, the obsession with the city / financial markets above all else, etc. It had sod all to do with the movements of the planets!

 

Labour wining in 1997 was a much needed breath of fresh air.... but as with all such things after 20 years folk started to get disillusioned and hence they got booted out.

Edited May 10, 2020 by phil-b259

[Gibbo675]

41 minutes ago, phil-b259 said:

 

Or how about the more practical reason - By the time a person attains 20 years of age they can vote!

 

If you have grown up under one party / doctrine / etc and hate it them that first general election that happens after you turn 18 is your chance to change things.

 

Throughout my childhood the ALL governments were Conservative ones and by the mid 1990s I was desperate for them to be kicked out because of their europhobic party 'grandees', their obsession with privatisation, the obsession with the city / financial markets above all else, etc. It had sod all to do with the movements of the planets!

 

Labour wining in 1997 was a much needed breath of fresh air.... but as with all such things after 20 years folk started to get disillusioned and hence they got booted out.

Hi Phil,

 

I take it that you don't know that Ronald Reagan had an astrologer as does Trump,

 

Gibbo.

[phil-b259]

2 minutes ago, Gibbo675 said:

Hi Phil,

 

I take it that you don't know that Ronald Reagan had an astrologer as does Trump,

 

Gibbo.

 

No I didn't

 

Might explain some of the bonehead decisions though....

[Gibbo675]

On 09/05/2020 at 18:38, rockershovel said:

 

I rather suspect that this is how it will end - in a progressive collapse while the government say one thing, and do quite another. It was quickly apparent that they had not thought through or appreciated, the likely consequences of the furlough scheme. Businesses are not charities, and with the elaborate charade of “2m apart”, Perspex screens, public transport in disarray and supply chains not working fully, who will want to open? 

Hi Mr Shovel

 

The below video might illuminate some people as to the direction of the financial chaos that we are currently falling into at an ever increasing rate.

 

 

Jim Sinclair answers some of my points as noted on page two for those that actually understand what he is even talking about.

 

Gibbo.

[Gibbo675]

1 minute ago, phil-b259 said:

 

No I didn't

 

Might explain some of the bonehead decisions though....

Hi Phil,

 

Trump's role as POTUS is to officiate the bankruptcy of the United States, should you watch the video posted above you may start to get what is actually going on.

 

Gibbo.