Post Covid19 (astrologers need not apply)

[Reorte]

2 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

 

All depends how the rest of the world treats China. The intelligence data recently released suggesting China was stockpiling PPE and medicines before letting the world know the Covid was indeed infectious between humans looks rather damning of the Party but is probably little different to Chernobyl with Russia -  "Comrade where is this cloud of radiation coming from?" "No idea capitalist pig, nothing to see here"......."Perhaps we'd had a small leak, but it's nothing serious"......."help"

 

In truth the West will publicly make the right noises about China but we will continue to depend heavily on the Party which will keep them in power longer.

 

China will continue to do well for as long as they can produce stuff cheaply. The desire for as possible for as little as possible isn't going to go away; anyone who tries to move away from China will end up out-competed by those who stay even if it gives them a short-term advantage.

Edited May 6, 2020 by Reorte

[Fenman]

3 hours ago, Lantavian said:

...

I really don't like the tone of the Guardian's coverage; there is too much "gleeful miserabilism".

 

3 hours ago, jjb1970 said:

...

I think the Guardian's current coverage is less about holding the government to account and more about gleeful miserabilism and just getting the boot in on the government in a way which is seriously undermining their credibility. If Boris Johnson invented a cure for cancer the Guardian headline would probably be some sort of rant about job losses among oncologists and cancer treatment units etc.

 

1 hour ago, PenrithBeacon said:

...

Agree with the comments about the Guardian, I've been reading it since the mid-sixties and can never remember a time when it was persistently negative all the more so because it now confuses fact and opinion. 'Comment is Free, but Facts are Sacred',  the newspaper is losing it's heritage.

Regards

Possibly I should be posting on the 50s/60s thread, but The Guardian did itself a disservice when it lost its “Manchester” roots. I liked hearing the voice of northern mercantile liberalism. I’m less excited about a voice rooted in the same metropolitan disposable culture. 
 

But if you triangulate somewhere between the Guardian’s misery-mongering and the Telegraph’s BoJo-can-do-no-wrong cheer-leading, you’re probably not in a bad place. 
 

I’m finding the most accurate and challenging recent reporting on Covid19 is in the FT. 
 

Paul

Edited May 6, 2020 by Fenman

[Fenman]

3 hours ago, Lantavian said:

...

I really don't like the tone of the Guardian's coverage; there is too much "gleeful miserabilism".

 

3 hours ago, jjb1970 said:

...

I think the Guardian's current coverage is less about holding the government to account and more about gleeful miserabilism and just getting the boot in on the government in a way which is seriously undermining their credibility. If Boris Johnson invented a cure for cancer the Guardian headline would probably be some sort of rant about job losses among oncologists and cancer treatment units etc.

 

1 hour ago, PenrithBeacon said:

...

Agree with the comments about the Guardian, I've been reading it since the mid-sixties and can never remember a time when it was persistently negative all the more so because it now confuses fact and opinion. 'Comment is Free, but Facts are Sacred',  the newspaper is losing it's heritage.

Regards

Dunno what went wrong there — apologies for duplicating. 

Edited May 6, 2020 by Fenman
Reason for exit: My idiocy

[Nearholmer]

I think I'm coming to see the future as "the recovery from a deep recession", with the added complexity of possibly several years of trying to live with a very nasty, for the time being unpreventable, bug in our midst.

 

Goodness only knows what it looks/feels like from the perspective of a person in a less prosperous country with the bug currently spreading, bare minimum healthcare, and less effective central institutions - bl**dy terrifying, I should imagine.

 

The "recession" part of it is going to be combined with the dawning understanding of how much the UK  and others nations have borrowed to get us through, and working-out how to divvy the tax bill to service the debt and (maybe) pay a bit back, so surely serious austerity must be just around the corner. How can that be balanced with not prolonging the recession by squashing demand flat, though? Lots of unemployment and a general reduction in prosperity is what I foresee.

 

Big-picture: China continuing to expand in prosperity and influence, but broadening cracks in the "one party" system as prosperity fosters consumerist and liberal expectations; Russia continuing "soft war" on all land-borders that can't be pushed by "hard war", especially against the EU and Canada; EU itself continuing to cobble-along, but not quite get its act together and form a proper federation or meaningful defensive alliance. Continuity, in short.

 

The USA is the place where I think the present crisis could "flip a switch", because the "US Model" only works effectively while they are on a "prosperity escalator", and that escalator has been going too slowly for a long time, and, push as hard as they will to "re-open", it is only going to go more slowly still in future.

 

Possible "switch throws" in the USA? Massive refocusing towards a Keynsian revival and a more euro-style future under different regime ; very bloody internal schism in which the two USAs fight one another for ownership of the future; picking a fight with another country and having reasonable-sized war, as a means of distraction, unifying round the flag, and because countries with mega-arsenals and a military-worship-complex just can't resist doing it it at some point. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Reorte]

6 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

Goodness only knows what it looks/feels like from the perspective of a person in a less prosperous country with the bug currently spreading, bare minimum healthcare, and less effective central institutions - bl**dy terrifying, I should imagine.

 

The one slight consolation they might have is with generally younger populations and perhaps fewer of the health problems Covid-19 attacks they might not be hit as hard. Less positive is that it'll just be one more bl**dy terrifying thing to add to the ones they're used to living with, so they might find the risks easier to cope with mentally (but I'm hardly in a position to judge that). Rather less positive is the significant chance of the developed world sorting it out and becoming less interested in doing anything to help anyone else get through it at that point.

Edited May 6, 2020 by Reorte

[woodenhead]

6 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

Goodness only knows what it looks/feels like from the perspective of a person in a less prosperous country with the bug currently spreading, bare minimum healthcare, and less effective central institutions - bl**dy terrifying, I should imagine.

 

Expect more migration from Africa and the Middle East in search of better healthcare and prosperity but meeting an ever more angry west who already feel over populated and a health service straining further as a result.

 

The best solution of course is to help people in the country of origin, but if those countries are resistant to change then the migrations remain.

 

Reaping the harvest of years of neglect, over consumption and a willful ignorance of the damage the human race is causing to the Earth as we tread on each other in our inescapable need to be the top of the food chain.

[Ohmisterporter]

32 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

 

Reaping the harvest of years of neglect, over consumption and a wilful ignorance of the damage the human race is causing to the Earth as we tread on each other in our inescapable need to be the top of the food chain.

 

And for too many people that will be the "normal" they want to get back to. 

[Steamport Southport]

Exactly the same as it was a few months ago. Eventually.

 

There might be a few business failings, but many of those are ones which probably would have collapsed at some point anyway. You may also get a few businesses deciding it's not worth restarting if it lasts much longer, especially if it is owned by people close to retirement age.

 

I'm just hoping we can get back to something like normal before the end of the summer. Most of my festivals have already gone and I just hope that we can get some of the season for the heritage railways to make a bit of money.

 

 

Jason

[Reorte]

11 minutes ago, Ohmisterporter said:

 

And for too many people that will be the "normal" they want to get back to. 

 

Yes and no. I'm very much of the opinion that most of our problems are ultimately down to too many people. I'd like to see scaling back of "must have this and that" but am I really much different? There's also the danger of throwing out the baby with the bathwater when it comes to making changes, and looking at things from a one extreme or the other perspective.

 

One of the major problems I've personally got with a lot of the "we need to do this / that/ whatever!" messages is that the paint a picture of a truly unappealing future and don't even try to sell it as a necessary evil. An approach that leads to depression and apathy, at least on my part.

Edited May 6, 2020 by Reorte

[PenrithBeacon]

BBC News - Coronavirus mutations: Scientists puzzle over impact
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52557955

This might have an important affect on the future

Regards

[brack]

I bet that the daily mail and express, after years of demonising anyone wearing some sort of face covering, will be the first campaigning for everyone to have to wear masks at all times.

[Bernard Lamb]

I have just read an update from the CEO of a multinational company that I deal with from time to time. He gives a summary of the current situation and goes on to say that things will not go back to how they were. Some things will, but some things will not. He then explains how they intend to operate in the future.  Hong Kong and London seem to be favoured rather than locations in mainland China and the USA. Those companies that can adapted will prosper and those that cannot could well go under. 

Bernard

[rab]

For me, the main thing this has shown is what is important/

not important eg. professional footballers/ health workers.

I hope this does not go back to how it was pre-COVID

[Steamport Southport]

15 minutes ago, rab said:

For me, the main thing this has shown is what is important/

not important eg. professional footballers/ health workers.

I hope this does not go back to how it was pre-COVID

 

I never understand why footballers always get flak.

 

Most of them are working class lads who have trained hard since they were about 6. Some of them eventually make it big and earn a bit of money in a career that is over by 35 if they are lucky. The fans pay their wages, not the public. 

 

Never hear anyone complaining about film stars, comedians, musicians, artists or whatever making millions. Usually for something they knocked up in minutes.

 

Classism possibly, racism (in some instances), but probably more jealousy.

 

 

 

Jason

[vaughan45]

6 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

Possible "switch throws" in the USA? Massive refocusing towards a Keynesian revival and a more euro-style future under different regime ; very bloody internal schism in which the two USAs fight one another for ownership of the future; picking a fight with another country and having reasonable-sized war, as a means of distraction, unifying round the flag, and because countries with mega-arsenals and a military-worship-complex just can't resist doing it at some point. 

 

Given that Covid-19 is not the only issue bothering the earth at this time, swarms of super-locusts in Africa, Super killer hornets that can kill humans invading North America, climate change etc. I think the four horsemen of the apocalypse are riding this way at speed, so I fully expect a major conflict started by the USA to erupt - Iran which would engulf the middle east and beyond, North Korea which would draw in China & Russia or perhaps Trump's threats of action against China for exporting Covid-19 could have a military aspect. Favourite timing would be between June and August.

 

Whether I catch Covid-19 or get nuked, I will be surprised if I'm still around in 12 months, which has prompted me to take early retirement!

[Ozexpatriate]

56 minutes ago, vaughan45 said:

I fully expect a major conflict started by the USA to erupt - Iran which would engulf the middle east and beyond, North Korea which would draw in China & Russia or perhaps Trump's threats of action against China for exporting Covid-19 could have a military aspect. Favourite timing would be between June and August.

I remain hopeful that such an extreme reaction will not occur. The present administration is not hawkish.

 

At some time China's focus to become the worlds preeminent superpower will come to a head, but for now, they cannot accomplish this without the willing participation of the US economy to buy "made in China". 

 

The PRK and Russia continue to be wildcards and very unpredictable. China is much more measured in their approach.

[Ozexpatriate]

I think it is always worth looking backwards.

 

Globally, we've seen this movie before but few of us are old enough to remember. The 1918 influenza pandemic, on top of the Great War, was cataclysmic with far more casualties in a smaller global population. Yet, it led to the "roaring 20s".

 

Based on that, I see no reason why we will not return, within a year or two, to the roaring 2020s. The short term will be ugly.

 

The trajectory of global climate change is still a bigger problem for us than the current pandemic. It is of course less immediate. I hope that the evidence of cleaner air and the ability to function without driving C02 emitters billions of miles a day, will help people realize that constructive changes to address climate change are actually possible.

[Gibbo675]

Hi Folks,

 

Here are some observations that I have made that don't seem to get too much thought on these here Covid-19 threads. The topics mentioned will have drastic effects upon the way life is now and will be in the future.

• There is an almost total lack of understanding of the mechanism of currency creation world wide via Modern Monetary Theory and the central banking model.
• There is also a similar lack of understanding of what taxes actually pay for, (clue, see above).
• With the governments of the world all monetising debt while at the same time not receiving tax revenues to pay off the bonds so far issued how much will taxes have to rise even at such low rates to pay the interest upon the bonds ? Will we see negative interest rates as a result ?
• Traditional capitalism no longer exists, in fact it hasn't done for quite some time, in that business relies upon credit and not capital to finance its operations functionally.
• If large corporations such as airlines fail then will they be allowed to go bankrupt or will they be bailed out by the government ? Whatever happens in that case what about all the support industries for such as the airlines will they be bailed out also and if so where is the magic money tree ?
• The price of oil fell to a price of minus $40.00 just the other week and yet no one seems to have noticed that even the most expensive grades, those that are cheapest to extract and refine, have been trading at well below the cost of production for most of the year so far if not longer.
• The NHS is classed as trust property in that it is now owned by its trustees on behalf of the beneficiaries by way of grant from the settlors. I take it that the government acted as settlor, but who actually are the trustees and more to the point who are the beneficiaries ?
• There are the beginnings of a divergence between commodities and equities within the markets, my guess is that food and materials will rise and house prices and corporate shares will fall. This will affect disposable incomes severely as grocery bill will rise and there will likely be wage price deflation in the coming time due to business failures adding to unemployment.
• I have not worked for six weeks now and as I am self employed I have had absolutely no income, fortunately I have savings to tide me over but that will not last for ever. What is the current situation of those without savings ?
• How many mortgage and car finance payments are currently becoming delinquent ? How much of an effect upon bank liquidity will this have ? The REPO market spiked to 11% last November, the usual rate is considered high when it reaches 1.5%.
• Who knows the difference between a bank bail in and a bank bail out as set out in the Basel 3 accords ?Think Cyprus 2013.
• How much will your pensions soon be worth being as most are invested in the stock market ? Nominal gains have to set off against commodity price inflation, ie what your pension may or may not buy in the future.
• New normal (meaning completely different to how it was) does seem to be a form of NLP, along with "lockdown" (house arrest), "social distancing" (induced separation anxiety), "self isolation" (anti social behaviour) and the one I really dislike "stay safe" (no one has ever said this to me previously !!!).
• Is there currently an attempt to mass brainwash the public into becoming dehumanised and frightened ?
• What next space alien invasion ?  Just seeing if you are still awake !
• A class room of thirty pupils will have to be about the size of a tennis court to allow for social distancing between desks. How is that going to work ?

Have fun with that lot !

 

Gibbo.

[Ozexpatriate]

4 hours ago, Bernard Lamb said:

Hong Kong ... seem to be favoured

Only for as long as they are permitted to be open for business.

[Gibbo675]

9 minutes ago, Ozexpatriate said:

I remain hopeful that such an extreme reaction will not occur. The present administration is not hawkish.

 

At some time China's focus to become the worlds preeminent superpower will come to a head, but for now, they cannot accomplish this without the willing participation of the US economy to buy "made in China". 

 

The PRK and Russia continue to be wildcards and very unpredictable. China is much more measured in their approach.

Hi There,

 

I take it that you are unaware that some US PMC's associated with Silvercorp were apprehended in a Venezuelan town called Chuao on 03/05/20.

 

Gibbo.

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

10 hours ago, Lantavian said:

There's a lot of wishful thinking at the moment among political writers, who seem to think that the disruption caused by coronavirus will result in their favourite policies being adopted...

[Utopian rambling]

I shall be bugging my MP, once the various crises are damped down , about one of H.G. Wells more prescient sayings.

"The great body of physical science, a great deal of the essential fact of financial science, and endless social and political problems are only accessible and only thinkable to those who have had a sound training in mathematical analysis, and the time may not be very remote when it will be understood that for complete initiation as an efficient citizen of one of the new great complex worldwide States that are now developing, it is as necessary to be able to compute, to think in averages and maxima and minima, as it is now to be able to read and write."

 

Now Wells didn't quite get that right in detail, but it is a thought in the right direction. As a German epidemiologist remarked a couple of days ago, it helped in getting their Covid counter-effort underway that Chancellor Merkel Phd (Physics) had an immediate understanding of what 'exponential growth' means.

 

Basically, education, education, education; you will all learn the difficult stuff that most are now able to shy away from, so that you immediately understand the difficulties in obtaining valid data, the appropriate methods for analysing it to guide actions, and the inherent limitations in the process. Everyone needs to know much more than just enough arithmetic to operate their financial affairs. (Carrot and stick proposal: You won't be allowed a sex life until this is mastered. I might even suggest use of  Rachel Riley's notorious quote as the slogan: "No penetration without integration".)

[/Utopian rambling]

All the above is of course wild and wishful thinking. Only if pols were  as dim as some think, would they sign up to a programme which would totally change the political landscape: by minimising the chance to routinely peddle the stuff that comes out of the back of bovines...

 

 

10 hours ago, jonny777 said:

...between 1000 and 1500 people die every day anyway, from all manner of diseases, accidents, overdoses, etc. Who knows how many of the covid deaths would have occurred (due to underlying conditions) anyway, but maybe not quite as rapidly?

It will be possible to estimate the true impact of Covid by the excess deaths over the projected deaths extrapolated from past data using recognised modelling techniques. I suspect the impact will prove to be less than the raw death count suggests: this virus is quite literally 'just one more infection' that is most dangerous to those with existing health deficits. (The bald and unpopular fact underlying this is that you will die, something - often the effect of multiple factors - will bring your life to an end.)

[Ozexpatriate]

Something to consider in the post-pandemic world is a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

 

It seems that there is some correlation between 1918 influenza pandemic deaths and support for the NSDAP. The study does not suggest causality but postulates that the ability of municipalities to invest in infrastructure would be variably impacted by the severity of the pandemic and might influence voting patterns. 

 

It also draws similarities with things like the historical antisemitic blaming of medieval plagues on minorities.

 

With so much nascent Nationalism in the Western democracies, this sort of thing is worth monitoring.

 

Edited May 6, 2020 by Ozexpatriate

[brack]

4 minutes ago, 34theletterbetweenB&D said:

Everyone needs to know much more than just enough arithmetic to operate their financial affairs. (Carrot and stick proposal: You won't be allowed a sex life until this is mastered. I might even suggest use of  Rachel Riley's notorious quote as the slogan: "No penetration without integration".)

Sadly the link between education levels and fecundity would suggest that the worst at arithmetic are those multiplying.

[Ozexpatriate]

8 minutes ago, Gibbo675 said:

I take it that you are unaware that some US PMC's associated with Silvercorp were apprehended in a Venezuelan town called Chuao on 03/05/20.

I don't know what you mean by "PMC's" but yes.

 

And yes, Venezuela is a nightmare that could explode very unpredictably. We can only hope that global powers are not as interested in playing the proxy war games as they were historically. While every major global superpower has done this more or less continuously since 1815, I do not believe they are currently in vogue in Washington. Having said that, intelligence agencies haven't shuttered their operations.

[Nearholmer]

30 minutes ago, Gibbo675 said:

Is there currently an attempt to mass brainwash the public into becoming dehumanised and frightened ?

 

No.

 

World leaders are incapable of cooperating to the degree necessary to achieve that on global scale. They could only dehumanise and terrify us all accidentally.

 

Quite a bit of the rest of your post I think raises really interesting, not yet much thought about, points.