Lockdown’s Last Lingerings - (Covid since L2 ended)

[teaky]

It also looks like your area is below average (up to the 6th), so perhaps it's just a matter of zooming in to the right level for the area you deem appropriate?

[Nearholmer]

A lot depends on the level of 'local' that you look at, and how many people live in the area.

 

If you go down to the smallest areas, in some cases the populations are so small that the figures become very volatile. There is one near us which contains a big school, a large wood, a tech-industrial park, and a random selection of residential streets, total resident population c6 000, and that gives rise to very wild swings in numbers, whereas the one we live in has c23 000 residents, and gives 'smoother' changes.

 

TBH, I cannot work out for the life of me how the area boundaries are set (postcodes?), because here they bear no resemblance to logic, and if I were to guess I'd say they are based on C12th manorial boundaries or something equally irrelevant. They aren't council wards, that I can see, and they don't respect road layouts. Upshot being huge variations in population sizes.

 

And, because they are "random cuts", like jigsaw puzzle, they are useless from the point of view of understanding risk, and must be pure rubbish from a track & trace viewpoint, because places one would normally need to visit in the course of a day, school, supermarket, etc, fall either side of the cut-lines. Even walking the dog probably "crosses the lines". I don't bother looking below "city" level any more.

Edited February 11, 2021 by Nearholmer

[Bernard Lamb]

I find the number of deaths to be the weirdest from a statistical viewpoint.

When the figure is always 0, 1, or 2 as it is in my local area the percentage variation is enormous and and bears no relationship to any larger area or the general trend.

Two local level areas are keeping the No. per 100k figure stubbornly high and above the national average although this week it has come down to only just above the average.

Bernard

[Nearholmer]

Being above the national average, if like us you live in an area that was badly mauled by The Kent Variant, is bound to be the case - there are many parts of the country where the KV hadn’t really taken a firm hold before lockdown, so they didn’t get to the crazily high numbers that applied here, and therefore don’t have to come down from them.

 

Remember too that the national average is a rapidly-falling target ...... any minor variation in local rate of fall could put you ahead, behind, or in-step with the average.

 

My guess is the only time all areas are in-step with average is when all areas, and therefore the national average, =0.

 

You really need to look at case rates, and crucially % change per week, to understand whether your area is in a bad places getting better, or stuck in a bad place.
 

I have spotted a couple of tiny areas here that look as if they’ve ‘got stuck’, one even having a rise in cases, but I think it is “statistical blipping” in ‘too small sample size’ populations. Likewise an area that has miraculously gone completely virus-free ....... it almost certainly hasn’t really, just a down blip, rather than an up blip.

 

 

Edited February 12, 2021 by Nearholmer

[hayfield]

16 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

Positive news: my good lady now has her first vaccination booked for next week.

 

She has a 'maybe still' suppressed immune system as a result of cancer treatment 2018/19 and the follow-up medication that she takes, so falls into the "underlying conditions" group. 

 

"The System" is clearly working, with people "in the next phase" being called as the current phase heads to a conclusion.

 

More than a bit worrying that so many care-workers and older ethnic-minority people haven't been vaccinated yet, though. I watched a report that showed some of the sort of unadulterated nonsense that is circulating on WhatsApp etc ....... very sad that people believe such obvious quacks.

 

 

 

16 hours ago, Reorte said:

A little behind in some places - my parents are over 70 but only getting their first dose on Friday, but that's not far off. They could've had one a little earlier but it would've involved a 100 mile each way trip (in their shoes I might've done it just for a change of scene).

 

Our local health centre is doing a sterling job, issues at the first session a few weeks back but now a well oiled slick operation. My wife and I (65-70 age group) went for our jabs yesterday, arrived 15 mins before the first appointment (as requested)  very short wait, then summed into registration, both went straight through and after the 10 min rest left. Slight malfunction with my jab as the syringe malfunctioned, so after a consultation I had a second shot, we both have slightly tender arms where injected as expected

 

I must admit a very professional set up from the initial computer based IT system through to the volunteers,  UK PLC at its very best, and a big thanks to all (state, services, volunteers and private companies) concerned that made it possible, certainly all concerned doing their best together.

 

As for uptake, it is very worrying that some are so negative, OK if they have a medical condition where the vaccine may have adverse affects. But for carers it should be mandatory for them to work with others, as their patients should come first at all times !!

 

Having said this I think Mat Hancock said the government expected a 75% take up of the vaccine, we seem to be well ahead of this

[hayfield]

13 hours ago, Hobby said:

 

J's carers who look after her whilst I am at work and work for a care agency had their jabs last week. I had mine as a carer two weeks ago as our local council are ahead of the game. She hasn't had hers yet though!! 

 

In our little parish last week infections had dropped down to about a 10 th of what it was 4 weeks earlier, the past 6 days the rate has nearly doubled, trouble is if a family is infected it has an impact on local rates, so looking at smaller areas can be misleading. When looking at the larger area the small wrinkles get ironed out, Looking at Kent just 1 red area and lots of light and dark green areas showing. Essex is much the same with 3 small red areas and lots of green showing. Herts, Beds, Bucks seem a little behind, but then they were later into getting the Kent strain. Hopefully the trend will start to pick up speed with both vaccinations and testing take their toll on the virus. Hopefully in 6 weeks time the outlook will be much better

[hayfield]

15 hours ago, Jonboy said:

Going back to the entry fees debate I tend to look at it the other way, I am happy to pay in the region of £5-£7 per hour of “normal” entertainment which tallies with the local cinema, what I would spend in a pub, non member swimming at the local pool/lake etc etc. 
 

I do feel the local shows pre-COVID undercharged slightly for their offering but I am generally attending on my own....

 

I think as a group we are older and bulk at modern day prices, whether its the latest kit, entry into an event or buying a Pizza 

 

£10 for entry into a top class show where perhaps you spend 4 /5 hours or more is excellent value, then if I can but items which in normal times would have been sent via mail order then there are even bigger savings

 

Translate these prices with the costs of going to shows or football and they become very cheap

[Nearholmer]

53 minutes ago, hayfield said:

But for carers it should be mandatory for them to work with others, as their patients should come first at all times !!

I suspect that there might be a cross-over between the care-worker community, and the community of ethnic-minority people who have been most bombarded with material that either stokes fear of the vaccines, or puts forward some kind of bonkers quackery as an alternative cure.

 

If I’m right, and I admit to ‘jjoining dots’, it isn’t going to work to threaten people into submission, it needs good advocacy.

 

The other thing is that care staff are a very casualised sector, and it may be that the responsibility for organising their ‘call-up’ is flawed. How is "vaccination central" to know who to contact?

 

 

Edited February 12, 2021 by Nearholmer

[Bernard Lamb]

I find it interesting to see the different approaches to vaccination.

In England the call is for large blocks of people to attend, get a high percentage done and then move on to the next block and then pick up the remainder.

In Scotland they go through the blocks in order. A slower method, but as they have a much lower rate of infection, I can understand the logic of the most vulnerable getting done rather than aiming for the highest number.

In Germany it seems to be by age group but in strictly alphabetical order.

In the USA it seems to be strictly by age and you are given a number with your place in the queue running to several million in some cases. However it seems possible to be on a list in more than one County or to be able to move from one list to another.

I know people in America from either end of the political spectrum and I find the extreme views amazing. Some of the comments would certainly not be allowed on this forum.

Remarks on the lines of "Our Governor is doing every thing he can to kill us ", being one of the milder remarks.

I have just seen that Chile, while starting late, has secured an adequate supply of vaccine including the Chinese version and looks as though it will be catching up on numbers very soon. Also having secured very good terms with a spot of political and economic juggling.

Bernard

[Reorte]

6 minutes ago, Bernard Lamb said:

I know people in America from either end of the political spectrum and I find the extreme views amazing. Some of the comments would certainly not be allowed on this forum.

 

The USA seems to have gone further down the path of "Anyone who disagrees with me must be utterly repugnant, idiotic, vile scum and therefore there's no point in trying to discuss anything with them, and they don't deserve it anyway. Therefore whilst what I'm saying about them might sound bad it's perfectly justified in this case, not a case of namecalling, just cold, hard fact." And throw in that any disagreement, from a slight difference of opinion right through to as far to the opposite extreme imaginable, gets treated as equivalent. So people slide into two very simple-minded pigeonholes, and take a dogmatic, zealous approach to everything.

 

The UK's not that far behind. It's probably something we all instinctively feel to be honest (I know I do on various subjects), but the idea that you should even try to empathise (not sympathise) with other points of view has been rejected.

[Nearholmer]

8 minutes ago, Bernard Lamb said:

Our Governor is doing every thing he can to kill us ", being one of the milder remarks.

 

Symptomatic of the trouble with the US at the moment is that a few individuals could honestly say the converse. And, tragically, the same was true here during the dreaded 'B' debate. Polarise at peril.

[Pete the Elaner]

20 minutes ago, hayfield said:

 

Translate these prices with the costs of going to shows or football and they become very cheap

 

£5 extra for the larger shows is not such a big deal. It usually costs more to get there than to get in & when the car runs low on fuel, I simply fill it without accounting for how much I used for each trip.

Local shows are more of an issue. Travel/parking costs are less so a £5 raise would be more significant (although for me, exhibitions are usually more of a day out with friends than anything else).

[Fenman]

57 minutes ago, Reorte said:

 

The USA seems to have gone further down the path of "Anyone who disagrees with me must be utterly repugnant, idiotic, vile scum and therefore there's no point in trying to discuss anything with them, and they don't deserve it anyway. Therefore whilst what I'm saying about them might sound bad it's perfectly justified in this case, not a case of namecalling, just cold, hard fact." And throw in that any disagreement, from a slight difference of opinion right through to as far to the opposite extreme imaginable, gets treated as equivalent. So people slide into two very simple-minded pigeonholes, and take a dogmatic, zealous approach to everything.

 

The UK's not that far behind. It's probably something we all instinctively feel to be honest (I know I do on various subjects), but the idea that you should even try to empathise (not sympathise) with other points of view has been rejected.

It affects many walks of US life. The famous Civil War general, later President, Ulysses S Grant, was famously tone deaf.

 

He explained that that wasn’t true, and he knew not just one song, but two. One of them was Dixie. And the other one wasn’t. 

 

Paul

[Andy Hayter]

2 hours ago, Bernard Lamb said:

I find the number of deaths to be the weirdest from a statistical viewpoint.

When the figure is always 0, 1, or 2 as it is in my local area the percentage variation is enormous and and bears no relationship to any larger area or the general trend.

Two local level areas are keeping the No. per 100k figure stubbornly high and above the national average although this week it has come down to only just above the average.

Bernard

 

You should not really be surprised that the death rate is difficult to follow from a statistical point of view.

Firstly it will depend on the numbers infected - if you don't get infected you don't die due to Covid.

Then you have to overlay a whole raft of factors onto those that are infected:

Age profile

Ethnic breakdown

Number of medical conditions within the population.  Linked in part only to the previous 2 groups.

Sex of victims

etc.

 

It then becomes quite difficult to follow the statistical trends without all of those numbers.

[Nearholmer]

Yes, beyond “a very large number of people died earlier than they would have if the pandemic hadn’t happened”, it seems to me too soon to really understand things numerically.

 

As an instance, ONS published a study yesterday about the impact on disabled people that has led to some ‘big headlines’, but the study needs to be read quite carefully to understand what it is, and what it isn’t, actually saying, and crucially it was only able to look at data for 01/2020 to 11/2020, so tells us nothing about what has happened during the winter.

[Bernard Lamb]

4 hours ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

You should not really be surprised that the death rate is difficult to follow from a statistical point of view.

 

Did  I say that I was surprised?

I thought I wrote that the way the figures were presented was weird and then quoted an example from which  no logical conclusion could be drawn.

The old saying of lies, dammed lies and statistics.

Bernard

[John M Upton]

It's Friday afternoon and I notice a fair few people still travelling with suitcases.

 

One even heard on the mobile "just going away for the weekend, what harm can it do?"

 

[Hobby]

It's never stopped and certainly isn't confined to Fridays, I had one old gent travelling from Derbyshire to Scotland last week, looked very frail and had tubes sticking out. Makes a change from the county lines gangs, I suppose.

 

[Pete the Elaner]

8 minutes ago, John M Upton said:

It's Friday afternoon and I notice a fair few people still travelling with suitcases.

 

One even heard on the mobile "just going away for the weekend, what harm can it do?"

 

 

Frustrating isn't it?

It is a good job we are not all selfish pricks who consider ourselves exceptions.

[john new]

1 hour ago, John M Upton said:

It's Friday afternoon and I notice a fair few people still travelling with suitcases.

 

One even heard on the mobile "just going away for the weekend, what harm can it do?"

 

Living in a likely seaside destination area we deliberately did the big-shop early today to avoid the incoming rush as half-term starts today. No home schooling so head to the coast and your second-home despite all the instructions not to.

[TheQ]

8 hours ago, hayfield said:

 

 

Having said this I think Mat Hancock said the government expected a 75% take up of the vaccine, we seem to be well ahead of this

The figures I saw indicate a take up of over 90% which has been a surprise to every one. The anti vaxer's are proving to be a very small but noisy minority..

 

We are getting behind most areas in vaccinating the older age group..

Why?

 

Because we have more of them. The average here being 58 against the national average of age of 40.

So although I'm 63 and the online guess when you'll get your jab calculators say the end of Feb early March, I'm guessing we'll be lucky to get it by late March..

 

[Andy Hayter]

42 minutes ago, TheQ said:

The figures I saw indicate a take up of over 90% which has been a surprise to every one. The anti vaxer's are proving to be a very small but noisy minority..

 

We are getting behind most areas in vaccinating the older age group..

Why?

 

Because we have more of them. The average here being 58 against the national average of age of 40.

So although I'm 63 and the online guess when you'll get your jab calculators say the end of Feb early March, I'm guessing we'll be lucky to get it by late March..

 

 

I think the main body of anti-vaxers are of a different generation and mainly in the 25-45 age group.  We should perhaps expect the vaccine take up to drop off a bit in the next phase (cohorts 5 -9) and further still thereafter - unless some of those led into the AV brigade see that Granny and Grandad are still alive and indeed with a vaccine certificate can go off on their cruise/foreign holiday.

[boxbrownie]

2 hours ago, John M Upton said:

It's Friday afternoon and I notice a fair few people still travelling with suitcases.

 

One even heard on the mobile "just going away for the weekend, what harm can it do?"

 

 Fu**wits     Sorry Andy

[Hobby]

Shows why we have a problem and many other countries don't...

[APOLLO]

I'm 68 and got a letter today from the NHS requesting me to book a jab online, or wait till my GP contacts me. I had a heart by pass a few years ago so I suspect this is why I got my letter today.  Went on the website and I was pleasantly surprised how quick & easy it was. I was given a good choice of centres in distance order of my postcode. The nearest was a Chemist one mile away, so I booked there for next Friday. My second jab was also booked at the same time, same place approx 12 weeks later.

 

Thank you NHS.

 

Brit15