Covid / Experts / Pressure groups

[Tricky-CRS]

2 hours ago, Allegheny1600 said:

Sorry, I can’t let that go unchallenged.

Firstly, that pandemic hit immediately after the then worst conflict in human history (obviously no one knew what would happen so soon after) - this means that in the European theatre at least, most people were malnourished and therefore less able to fight infection.

Secondly, masses of people had been subject to things like gas attack, long periods of time living in trenches, suffering damp conditions which is very bad on the lungs.

And finally, the majority of men initially infected were effectively treated like cattle, kept in very close quarters with little in the way of fresh air, water and so forth, waiting for demob and transfer back “home” (wherever that was).

What this all means is that even though many of the victims were in their twenties, they weren’t as fit as we might expect, emotionally nor physically.

Even the transfer back home was a very fraught time for most of them so by the time they got there, they would have been highly contagious to all members of society, hence why that pandemic spread through the world.

 

 I just wanted to clarify that things were not as clear cut, a century ago nor are they now.

 

Slight correct it started during the war and social distancing was in place and well managed during the war. Units / regiments were generally kept apart and rotated around. Back home the population was under restrictions because of the flu and the war which kept it under control. It spiked out of control after the war because of the partying and the return of the army. War time restrictions ended and fatigue of war lead to the end of social distancing. I agree the population was not very health at that point, stress, poor diet, troops in poor conditions etc, the population at home was not doing much better.

[Nearholmer]

37 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

found it's first form that could be fatal to man.

I know you don’t mean it to, but that too hints at intent. As does “failed attempts” - it never failed in anything, or succeeded in anything, because it isn’t capable of attempting or failing - it just is what is is, doing what it does, mindlessly. 
 

How about:
 

Eventually a form arose which could survive and multiply in humans, many of which it made ill in the process, some dying from that illness.

[Reorte]

Just now, Nearholmer said:

I know you don’t mean it to, but that too hints at intent. As does “failed attempts” - it never failed in anything, or succeeded in anything, because it isn’t capable of attempting or failing - it just is what is is, doing what it does, mindlessly. 
 

How about:
 

Eventually a form arose which could survive and multiply in humans, many of which it made ill in the process, some dying from that illness.

That works better because there's no gain to the virus from killing humans. The most successful virus would be incredibly infectious and completely harmless - it it doesn't kill its host or cause its host to change beahviour to avoid being infected the virus has a better chance of spreading. That's why there's a historical tendency for diseases to get less infectious - those mutations that are more harmless have a greater chance of spreading (if everything else is equal).

[woodenhead]

Just now, Nearholmer said:

How about:
 

Eventually a form arose which could survive and multiply in humans, many of which it made ill in the process, some dying from that illness.

I can go with that, sometimes I write what I think without considering how others may read it back.

[Nearholmer]

Yes, well, you’ve just witnessed me, and I think Il Dottore, do exactly the same thing!  
 

We’re all at it.

[woodenhead]

1 minute ago, Reorte said:

That works better because there's no gain to the virus from killing humans. The most successful virus would be incredibly infectious and completely harmless - it it doesn't kill its host or cause its host to change beahviour to avoid being infected the virus has a better chance of spreading. That's why there's a historical tendency for diseases to get less infectious - those mutations that are more harmless have a greater chance of spreading (if everything else is equal).

Fingers crossed then for this newer more infectious version in the South East.

 

Is there a danger the more you resist something the more it fights, so if we cannot kill it we have to learn to live with it, accept it and eventually it will become the Flu and one day another common cold?

[phil-b259]

5 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

Fingers crossed then for this newer more infectious version in the South East.

 

Is there a danger the more you resist something the more it fights, so if we cannot kill it we have to learn to live with it, accept it and eventually it will become the Flu and one day another common cold?

 

Thats what I expect to happen even with Vaccines

[Nearholmer]

3 hours ago, Allegheny1600 said:

Sorry, I can’t let that go unchallenged.

Firstly, that pandemic hit immediately after the then worst conflict in human history

I hope I’ve explained in responding to Il Dottore what I meant by “random”, and I would still contend that the mutations that caused that pandemic arose “randomly”, as do many others.

 

The circumstances of the western front probably did select favourably for mutations that multiplied and spread well in people in their twenties, but the fact that it was fatal for a lot of them, and less severe for people not in their twenties (which I believe was the case), look very much like “random” outcomes, rather than selected-for outcomes to me, but I’m no geneticist or epidemiologist, so I don’t know whether viruses prosper best if they happen to thrive best narrow in a narrow demographic and kill a lot of their hosts (although I would say that that idea feels counterintuitive to me).

 

 

[hayfield]

15 hours ago, black and decker boy said:

Well the OP should be happier now as the SE is plunged into Tier 4 lockdown.

 

no foreign travel, no domestic travel, no indoor meeting and max 1 person outdoors (from another household)

 

Christmas meetings / mixing outside SE now reduced to 1 day.

 

new strain of virus up to 70% more transmissible and is now the dominant strain in the SE

 

Far from it, but unlike many most of my family had already come to the conclusion that to protect the most vulnerable in our family we have to do our bit and as we are so close to a solution use upmost caution. We had hoped to meet outside in a public place for a few short walks, now its facetiming and zoom, rather than be ultra selfish and risk the lives of the most elderly.

 

I think the action taken yesterday was the only sensible option, certainly in areas like ours. As I said the village is a bit like a ghost town, one ray of light is that yesterday the infection rate held for the first time in 3 weeks. Our local parish infection rate over the past 7 days is 1180 per 100,000, which is a really scary rate. According to the local health authority from test results driven by the younger generation, and they are specially concerned with the 11 to 18 year olds. Nothing to be pleased about and worryingly the fears of the locals have become fact. I just hope that the areas these smart Alex's live in do not suffer the same.

 

This virus is being spread by people as far as we know, we all should be protecting ourselves and each other far better than we have.

 

Not but had already been resigned to most of it !!

[hayfield]

14 hours ago, ejstubbs said:

 

As stated in the article: The first round of survey results are based on tests of more than 6,000 pupils and nearly 5,000 staff from 105 schools - 63 secondary and 42 primary - in areas of England where the virus was spreading quickly at the start of the school year.

 

So your local experience wouldn't be particularly relevant.

 

A team of qualified professionals have collected data, analysed it and reported their findings.  But they recognise that the work is not complete:

 

Data from PHE so far suggests infections in school year groups are being introduced from different sources rather than being spread between pupils in schools, but genetic analysis of virus strains is needed to confirm this, Dr Ladhani says.

 

Even allowing for the probably unavoidable - and acknowledged - incompleteness of the data and analysis so far, it strikes me that the information emerging via this route is rather more useful than hunches, gut feelings and 'common sense'.

 

 

Its more important to listen to the local public health officials, who are seeing newer data and seeing what is happening, if what has happened had occurred locally/regionally, there would have been no need to close both schools or issue both statements, which is telling how it is rather than it was. Other regions may differ and still be closer to this historic finding

[Nearholmer]

Yes, the ‘headline’ figures cited for areas lag by about five days. By ferreting about, you can find the up to date ones, and certainly here they show it continuing to skyrocket.

[hayfield]

Kevin

 

The figures used for the information are 6 days old, though the R numbers were assessed the day before. Presumably the local health authority works on  slightly newer data

 

I just feel sorry for all, for all but a few the lack of socializing is just inconvenience, fewer businesses are being shut down than in earlier lockdowns, but how many will want to risk it?.  Sadly on the other hand how many will just ignore the rules

 

One very sad report is how this affects the terminally ill, presumably these poor folk come under the exceptional circumstances.

 

On the bright side, we have one vaccine in use, another apparently days away from getting the green light and hopefully the latest outbreak will be nearing its peak.  

 

If nothing else we can send Christmas greetings electronically   

[Reorte]

We get slightly old figures because that's how long it takes to get most of the data, if you're looking in to the number of people who test positive on a given date.

 

[Nearholmer]

55 minutes ago, hayfield said:

Presumably the local health authority works on  slightly newer data

Yes, and the raw figures are there on the public dashboard if you hunt for them, but you have to do your own division to get to rates, and accept that some test results won’t be known, so the latest day or three will be short.

 

I’ve just sent our tests off, and been warned that the labs are so busy that results may take three days - when son and I took tests before it was far quicker than that.

[black and decker boy]

We are in replanning mode, no clear route yet but my Dad is pretty broken. We are tier 4, he is tier 3 but 200 miles away. We have all been isolating since 11th on expectation of 5 days together.

 

We are his support bubble so we can legally meet him but working out logistics isn’t easy: we aren’t supposed to leave, he isn’t supposed to enter. We aren’t sure what the Police will be doing to stop & enforce.

 

what I do know is leaving him home alone isn’t going to end well.

[woodenhead]

My father died last November, he had been on a known decline for 4 years, 2 years longer than expected.

 

He was active up to two weeks before he passed, in fact it was a fall on the way home from his daily restaurant visit that landed him his final trip to hospital.

 

He would never have coped with not being able to go out, it was what he lived for in the end.

 

My mother in law didn't want to be a burden on anyone, she has had to isolate since March as she is immuno suppressed, she ended up in A&E because she didn't go to the doctor when she had excruciating stomach pains.  Luckily they found the issue, operated and now she is nearly fully recovered but still isolating.  She hasn't seen her grandchildren properly in months apart from some fleeting visits with them stood in the front garden or via Skype.

 

My sister got Covid from the Dementia ward she runs, she is actually in one of the higher risk groups herself but luckily came through it fairly unscathed, it ripped through the whole ward though.

 

There are other things going on but too personal to share here, it's a tough year for everyone but we all soldier on expecting an end soon, we all really need an end to this so we can recover mentally from the impacts.

[Big James]

I’m classed as a key worker. Joys of being a team leader Leader in the online distribution section for a major retailer. I haven’t seen my parents, sisters and their children since in august to be safe. But every day I told myself at least I get to see them over Christmas. I have been worked into the ground. But because I was literally doing a 3 day tour to see them all i kept telling it will make it all worth it.  But it’s all gone up in smoke now. But I am  now facing Christmas Day on my own as my partners working. Due to suffering some minor mental health issues it feels like it’s broke me. 
I am sorry guys if it feels like I am having a pity party, I just needed to vent as I have to put on a front and pretend I am fine for my family because they are in bits over having not seen me for months. 
 

Big James

Edited December 21, 2020 by Big James

[Guius]

Anyone with an ounce of humanity in their soul won't be judging you Big James. Best wishes

Guy

[hayfield]

Owing to the local situation 3 weeks ago we as a family that we were going to eat alone and hopefully weather permitting meet up for a walk of two over Christmas

 

My daughters farther in law is in their bubble but having had his first covid injection is adamant that he should stay home alone until his second injection (new years eve) fully protect him. Being blind he cannot use zoom etc. Its a great pity that being so close to mass vaccinations for all that covid has hit so hard jet again. We just need to focus on keeping ourselves both safe physically and mentally, a few extra phone calls to cheer each other up and a few extra walks just to get some fresh air and perhaps swap a smile or two with others.   

 

Focus on what we can do,

Edited December 21, 2020 by hayfield

[Big James]

9 hours ago, scumcat said:

I think at these times we should all just remember what Tom Moore says “tomorrow will be a good day” in other words we need to keep going eventually it will get better. I too am working Christmas Day and I will raise my class of water to you sir

Thank you mate. Today was literally the end of the world. I’ll raise a glass to you as well. I’ve decided that while I’m home alone on Christmas Day. I will be going through the various streaming services to find the worst films I can find and order a takeaway. I’ve already found killer sofa on Amazon prime and the velocipastor on YouTube. 
 

Big James

[hayfield]

 

 

Whilst this is still very early in the investigation, it could answer why the infection has spread so rapidly in the south east

 

"Children almost universally shrug off the virus, but the (new) variant could alter the role they, and schools, play in spreading the virus.

Earlier strains of coronavirus found it harder to infect children than adults."

 

Certainly explains why our two local villages have changed from very few infections to a mass infected area. The past 4 days the infection rate seems to have been levelling off and we may be starting a decline though equally just be a weekend effect. Certainly if this turns out to be the case then the children's social interactions will need to be managed differently

 

One other interesting article on the BBC today is the one about China and the possible origins of the outbreak

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-55364445

 

Seems they were studying various covid virus's in a Wuhan lab, the samples were from caves and bats 150 miles plus away from Wuhan. The Chinese seem interested in the sources of these virus's  being studied in the lab, and secretive, I guess it was bound to get out into the human population anyway at some time 

[EddieB]

3 minutes ago, hayfield said:

 

 

One other interesting article on the BBC today is the one about China and the possible origins of the outbreak

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-55364445

 

Seems they were studying various covid virus's in a Wuhan lab, the samples were from caves and bats 150 miles plus away from Wuhan. The Chinese seem interested in the sources of these virus's  being studied in the lab, and secretive, I guess it was bound to get out into the human population anyway at some time 

Trust the BBC to be first with the news!

 

Actually there was a much-revised article published in the print edition of Scientific American in June, an earlier draft on their website for some three months before that:

 

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/

[hayfield]

5 minutes ago, EddieB said:

Trust the BBC to be first with the news!

 

Actually there was a much-revised article published in the print edition of Scientific American in June, an earlier draft on their website for some three months before that:

 

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/

 

Its taken from what seems a program they are making, rumours have been circulating for some time, the origin seems to have been known for some time, but as usual the Chinese government just denies anything that could be seen as negative. The truth eventually comes out, but in this case they seem to be very aware and studying various strains of SARS and covid 

 

  

[black and decker boy]

The fact China has been studying various animal viruses incl bats & coronavirus isn’t new news. It’s been the basis of Trumps “China Virus” speeches all year and was well publicised in most media as the pandemic grew.

 

it underpins many conspiracy theories too (beware; there are other nutty theories out there too).

 

The WHO has been discussing / attempting an investigation/ audit of the labs throughout the summer.

 

 

Edited December 22, 2020 by black and decker boy
Typo

[Nearholmer]

My expectation is that the detective work, both literal and scientific, to get to the bottom of the origin, and the political cool-off period whatever the outcome, will be so long that this is one for historians.

 

Anything ‘real time’ is likely to be spin-doctored by so many interests that it won’t be worth listening.