Covid / Experts / Pressure groups

[hayfield]

I will firstly declare that I am a supporter of the advice to keep all safe, adhering to both the rules and the spirit of them. As an extended family we have all agreed (before the latest rule changes ) we will be eating alone in our own family groups and not bubbles of 3 families, we may meet outside in public places weather permitting, if not its face time/ zoom.

 

I live in a small semi rural village in mid Essex, thankfully the area has not been too badly affected until recently. As asked we were in level 2 prior to the last lockdown as well as after and now in level 3. To be quite honest thiese new restrictions will not change what we have already been enduring for the past 3 months and all are happy to continue

 

3 weeks ago all looked rosy, in our micro area we were nearly in a yellow zone with 4 detected infections in the previous 7 days in ours and the next village, last week this had jumped to 12 infections in the previous 7 days and now we have 88 in a rolling 7 days. We have been told that this wave is mostly in the younger generation and there is nothing to worry about, yet Southend, Basildon and Chelmsford hospitals are under extreme pressure. What has happened ? well our village junior school has been closed for over a week now as has the local secondary school, both being hotbeds for covid. 

 

Now I understand children's education is important, but is it more important than peoples health or life? We know children are super spreaders, were the precautions taken suitable ?

 

These so called experts and children's campaigners, demanded that schools and universities open whatever the effects this had on society, telling us the risks were manageable.  I think not?

 

First we saw university students go mad and if not starting a second wave certainly adding greatly to it, and what were the university authorities doing ?  Seemingly nothing or at least nothing until it was too late

 

Then we have seen large numbers of younger openly breaking the rules, house parties, street parties, raves or just roaming the streets without a second thought about social distancing

 

As for the schools we were assured it was safe to have these small bubbles in schools seemingly without a thought of what goes on before and after school.  Clearly the plan was doomed to failure right from the start

 

I am not blaming the politicians for this one, they are caught between a rock and a hard place, whatever they did would be wrong. I am blaming these pressure groups and the so called experts who said the system could be carefully managed, they were totally wrong 

 

Hopefully our two villages will recover with not too many serious incidences, thankfully our medical centre has started vaccinating those at most risk, the schools have been closed for over 7 days and little sign of children out and about. We have plenty of open spaces and woods so social distancing can occur. Children seem to recover better from both illnesses and rebound from disruptions in life, poor education for a year or so can be caught up over time

 

To those who demanded that education was more important than the wider publics health should be made to stand up and apologise for the mess we are in now, lets hope the repercussions this time are no where as severe. As for those who live in less advantageous areas I wish them well.     

 

Rant over, 

[woodenhead]

Keeping schools. colleges and universities shut damages whole generations of youth for the remainder of their lives - a very large impact on a part of society who are least likely to suffer severe impact from Covid.  Remote teaching didn't work in the first lockdown and many children were losing their ability to concentrate and be in a routine.

 

I agree it could have been handled better, but closing down educational establishments for 12 months is not an option.

 

My wife has been in and out of schools in her job since September, being up close with all these super spreaders, she's not brought anything home so far.

 

 

[hayfield]

That's your own thoughts which you are welcome to hold it. I do think that education is important, but not at any price when it comes to harming others

 

There are plenty of examples of people who do not actually thrive until they leave school, and those who may well excel in school but are useless out of it. We need a well educated population let alone workforce, but the value of education is not limited to how many go to university. If anything now our education now is far to academic, but this is going off topic

 

We were bullied into opening up schools at any cost, by scare mongering pressure groups. (If a child forgets how to use a knife and fork in 3 months, they need social care intervention, not schooling. ) We were assured it would be safe to educate children in bubbles then let them loose all at the same time. This has been proved totally wrong. 

 

As I said in my local posted code area (2 villages) 3 weeks ago we had 4 infections, 3 weeks later we have 2 schools closed down, 84 people tested as infected and a 100k infected rate of 930, lets hope we do not see a spike in deaths !!! 3 of the nearest hospitals are at critical levels we are told the spike of infections is mainly with the younger generation. 

 

Children are far more resilient than we give credit for, if they loose a years education then they can always catch it up later. Lets face it many train/retrain after leaving school, 

 

Some years ago I met someone I vaguely knew at school, he was in what we called "the crayon class". By academic standards very low achiever. 20 years later built up a very profitable cleaning business, in many ways he is sharp as a pin. 

 

Of course lets have an education system, but one which does not incubate the virus.

[BoD]

2 hours ago, hayfield said:

and what were the university authorities doing ? 

Banking their tuition fees and rents for accommodation whilst not necessarily fulfilling their side of the bargain.

[hayfield]

22 minutes ago, BoD said:

Banking their tuition fees and rents for accommodation whilst not necessarily fulfilling their side of the bargain.

 

I wonder how they would fair under a trades description act complaint

 

Having said this my daughter went to a modern uni 20 plus years ago, I did wonder how anyone learns anything from the comments my daughter made about both her and some tutors missing lectures

 

As it happens she was asked to fill in covering someone at the local uni doing a couple of lectures, now they have asked if she would be interested in doing more. Perhaps she may get a bit more of her uni fees back 

[rocor]

3 hours ago, woodenhead said:

Keeping schools. colleges and universities shut damages whole generations of youth for the remainder of their lives - a very large impact on a part of society who are least likely to suffer severe impact from Covid.  Remote teaching didn't work in the first lockdown and many children were losing their ability to concentrate and be in a routine.

 

I agree it could have been handled better, but closing down educational establishments for 12 months is not an option.

 

My wife has been in and out of schools in her job since September, being up close with all these super spreaders, she's not brought anything home so far.

 

 

 

Schools provide an essential function to society. They provide child care throughout the day, thus allowing both parents to indulge in activities that may just allow them to economically keep their heads above water.

 

And some days, it becomes clear that cynicism really is my middle name.

 

 

[Neil]

Firstly I think that politicians do have to take responsibility for the decisions that they make. I recognise that at times there are no easy choices but we vote for them not just to do the easy stuff but to do the difficult stuff on our behalf.

 

My take is that the problems we face with the virus today centre on the desire of the government to have as light a touch with restrictions as possible. I suspect that it's harder for libertarian conservatives to be prescriptive than collectivist socialists. It appears as though they've certainly found it difficult to get their heads round the concept that early, strict, comprehensive interventions both save lives and livelihoods, that the wealth of the nation tracks the health of the nation. Even when the penny drops I imagine that there's an inbuilt inhibition to act accordingly. I believe that the decisions taken stem from the philosophical difficulty the government has with intervention, and while I have some sympathy for them having to act counter-intuitively to their conservative values, we vote for them and pay them to do the difficult stuff.

[phil-b259]

We need to be careful what we say in this thread or it will get locked.

 

As for schools staying open or being shut there are valid arguments for both.

 

Firstly research has PROVED that disruption to school life does cause a significant loss of learning, and the ability for children to acquire the social skills needed in adult life. This is why recent Governments have been cracking down hard on taking children out of school for holidays. The negative outcomes are particularly great for those in low income families (who lack the technology wealthier families can use to compensate) and for those with learning or physical disabilities.
 

Secondly when schools close a large number of parents are prevented from working as they need to look after their child. Again the impacts are particularly severe on single parent families, many of who am are also struggling financially at the best of times. The lack of a proper hot meal at lunch time and the increased energy consumption are not things which should be ignored either.
 

Against that however it is accepted that schools and children are excellent incubators of disease - as many teacher will know to their cost. The way most children don’t display any symptoms of COVID (unlike colds) makes it extra hard as without regular testing one pupil could easily go on to infect the whole school - and by extension the wider community. Young children are a particular concern here as unlike teenagers (who although rebellious by nature, can at least comprehend the need to keep apart in the way a four year old cannot). Shutting schools cuts off a key distribution method and would definitely help bring Covid cases down.

 

The Government is thus walking a tightrope here, the obvious reduction in virus spread a school closure would bring has to be balanced against the very real harm to children’s development and the economic / monetary fall out to families - particularly those at the vulnerable end of the spectrum. While I have no data to back this up, I would venture to suggest that the majority of site members probably don’t fall into the latter category (railway modelling is not a cheap hobby after all) and we do need to be mindful of that.

 

The final thing to note in all this is that the number of deaths from Covid below the age of 40 is minuscule compared to older age groups. Keeping older and younger generations apart is thus likely to be a better strategy - which given the way many grandparents are pressed into use as childminders suggests that keeping schools open is a good strategy.

 

 

Edited December 16, 2020 by phil-b259

[Barry O]

2 hours ago, BoD said:

Banking their tuition fees and rents for accommodation whilst not necessarily fulfilling their side of the bargain.

and asking the lecturers and staff to go the "extra mile "to provide on line services over and above the usual face to face  Lecturing my son normally does.  He has become an IT expert (!) answering queries from students,  providing additional on line support (which means students have been demanding on line responses a24/7 in his case), and having to read and mark lots of work - fine if you can read manuscripts on line - some people can't.

 

The Universities have struggled to work out what they can and can't do. They organised testing stations but not everyone would take a test. They are unsure of how students will return to the universities in 2021 but some have offered financial help regarding accommodation (a lot of this is outside the control of the Universities as the accommodation is  provided by 3rd parties (either in "partnership" with the University or as a stand alone )

 

To be fair the Universities did tell the Government there would be problems.. fell on deaf ears..

 

Baz

 

 

Baz

[simontaylor484]

All i will say is that i am glad i am not in Government and certainly not in the position of Boris.

Love him or lothe him he is in a position where he cant win no matter what he 

 

I am on the self shield list and am fed up of being stuck at home dur to other health conditions.

  All these deaths are individual tragedies for those involved but as a percentage of those confirmed cases is small.

 

Of course some folk think the rules dont apply to them but that has and will always be part of the human psyche.

Lets just hope we hit some form of normality soon 

[Bernard Lamb]

1 hour ago, rocor said:

 

Schools provide an essential function to society. They provide child care throughout the day, thus allowing both parents to indulge in activities that may just allow them to economically keep their heads above water.

 

And some days, it becomes clear that cynicism really is my middle name.

 

 

Nothing cynical in that.

It is also the only place that some of them get a decent meal.

Or any attention come to that.

What should a primary school teacher do when a young child wants to hold their hand?

There are times in the current situation when my daughter finds it a difficult job.

The teaching part is the easy bit.

Bernard

[BoD]

1 hour ago, Barry O said:

and asking the lecturers and staff to go the "extra mile "to provide on line services over and above the usual face to face  Lecturing my son normally does. 

 

As ever it is those at the coal chalk computer face that have to carry the can and do that extra mile. I’m sure their workload will have increased accordingly and they are trying to do their best for their students.   However, I still believe that the decision to bring students into halls of residence to do what they could have, for the most part, done at home was driven by financial need. 
 

Blame students, call students for ‘breaking the rules’ if you like, but they have been dealt a crap hand and have missed out on an awful lot of what higher education is about.

Edited December 16, 2020 by BoD

[hayfield]

1 hour ago, phil-b259 said:

We need to be careful what we say in this thread or it will get locked.

 

As for schools staying open or being shut there are valid arguments for both.

 

Firstly research has PROVED that disruption to school life does cause a significant loss of learning, and the ability for children to acquire the social skills needed in adult life. This is why recent Governments have been cracking down hard on taking children out of school for holidays. The negative outcomes are particularly great for those in low income families (who lack the technology wealthier families can use to compensate) and for those with learning or physical disabilities.
 

Secondly when schools close a large number of parents are prevented from working as they need to look after their child. Again the impacts are particularly severe on single parent families, many of who am are also struggling financially at the best of times. The lack of a proper hot meal at lunch time and the increased energy consumption are not things which should be ignored either.
 

Against that however it is accepted that schools and children are excellent incubators of disease - as many teacher will know to their cost. The way most children don’t display any symptoms of COVID (unlike colds) makes it extra hard as without regular testing one pupil could easily go on to infect the whole school - and by extension the wider community. Young children are a particular concern here as unlike teenagers (who although rebellious by nature, can at least comprehend the need to keep apart in the way a four year old cannot). Shutting schools cuts off a key distribution method and would definitely help bring Covid cases down.

 

The Government is thus walking a tightrope here, the obvious reduction in virus spread a school closure would bring has to be balanced against the very real harm to children’s development and the economic / monetary fall out to families - particularly those at the vulnerable end of the spectrum. While I have no data to back this up, I would venture to suggest that the majority of site members probably don’t fall into the latter category (railway modelling is not a cheap hobby after all) and we do need to be mindful of that.

 

The final thing to note in all this is that the number of deaths from Covid below the age of 40 is minuscule compared to older age groups. Keeping older and younger generations apart is thus likely to be a better strategy - which given the way many grandparents are pressed into use as childminders suggests that keeping schools open is a good strategy.

 

 

 

I can accept that if there is a disruption to school life without intervention can be damaging, but I have said this has to be addressed, so much easier than someone having to have a long convalescence and perhaps a lifetime of disability or far worse death. Why separate children in school when there is no separation either whilst they arrive or depart.

 

As for those who run universities, if they assumed there would be problems in university halls of residence. Why did they not plan to act !! It seems to the outsider all they did was stand back and watched it happen then said I told you so.

 

You are quite prepared to protect those single parents jobs who have children, yet perfectly happy for other single parents to loose their jobs due to being in one of the 3 lockdowns. Saying its OK for those under 40 to catch covid as if they do have any symptoms, its normally mild. But there is a huge problem, intergenerational infection, plus many show no or little symptoms. A grandchild  could easily infect their grandparents without knowing. Keeping generations apart is nigh on impossible for some

[hayfield]

1 hour ago, Bernard Lamb said:

Nothing cynical in that.

It is also the only place that some of them get a decent meal.

Or any attention come to that.

What should a primary school teacher do when a young child wants to hold their hand?

There are times in the current situation when my daughter finds it a difficult job.

The teaching part is the easy bit.

Bernard

Bernard

 

My niece is a school teacher in Kent and caught covid last week, infecting her fiancé. Thankfully she moved away from both her parents and grandparents a year ago.

 

Replacement meals have been provided in the past, but again are these reasons good enough for so much carnage ?

 

The first scandal was the care homes in the first wave, though I believe the owners of these care home should have been more prepared, 50% were and suffered few deaths

 

Is this next scandal going to be the way this pandemic has used the education system to  infect society ?

[BoD]

6 minutes ago, hayfield said:

Is this next scandal going to be the way this pandemic has used the education system to  infect society ?

For a long time the ‘powers that be’ were arguing that there was no spread in schools and that cases were always brought in from outside of school.

[phil-b259]

13 minutes ago, hayfield said:

 

I can accept that if there is a disruption to school life without intervention can be damaging, but I have said this has to be addressed, so much easier than someone having to have a long convalescence and perhaps a lifetime of disability or far worse death. Why separate children in school when there is no separation either whilst they arrive or depart.

 

As for those who run universities, if they assumed there would be problems in university halls of residence. Why did they not plan to act !! It seems to the outsider all they did was stand back and watched it happen then said I told you so.

 

You are quite prepared to protect those single parents jobs who have children, yet perfectly happy for other single parents to loose their jobs due to being in one of the 3 lockdowns. Saying its OK for those under 40 to catch covid as if they do have any symptoms, its normally mild. But there is a huge problem, intergenerational infection, plus many show no or little symptoms. A grandchild  could easily infect their grandparents without knowing. Keeping generations apart is nigh on impossible for some

I am not ‘prepared’ for anything as you put it - but ultimately there is no solution that is able to do everything people want.

 

Every action has consequences,  however I do believe in the principle that society owes a duty to protect its most vulnerable members.

 

As such the the selection of which measures the Goverment chooses to follow need to pay particular attention to the ‘have nots’ of the country as it were who are least able to whether the storm, and on balance I believe that trying to keep schools open (as opposed to pubs or the hospitality sector) is the right thing to do.

[phil-b259]

10 minutes ago, BoD said:

For a long time the ‘powers that be’ were arguing that there was no spread in schools and that cases were always brought in from outside of school.

The early data did back up this stance - but with the caveat that the UK Governments testing regime was (and remains) woeful compared to the likes of Germany.

 

Things have however moved on and we also have considerable evidence of just how significantly shutting schools in March has affected children’s learning and social life.

 

As such even if the data does now indicate schools are a significant factor in spreading Covid it does not automatically mean another extended school closure is a good idea.

Edited December 16, 2020 by phil-b259

[pirouets]

Still trying to get my head round the detail, but this British medical journal article is on modelling done in October based on the original models by Neil Ferguson and comes to the conclusion interventions and closures risk a longer epidemic and higher deaths - https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3588

 

Part way down is the statement - "We therefore conclude that the somewhat counterintuitive results that school closures lead to more deaths are a consequence of the addition of some interventions that suppress the first wave and failure to prioritise protection of the most vulnerable people."

 

How much of what has recently happened is also the delayed effect of things we got up to in July & August. I cannot find the link but I know there was somewhere in the North of England where the issues were due to holiday makers returning from Spain, but by the time Lockdown 2 kicked in, their numbers were on the way down because the area had been in tier 3.

 

So not sure it is a scandal, but following the science. I also know that Chris Whitty made a statement to MPs that they did not fully understand the Care home model when this hit, in particular where people worked in multiple homes and became carriers between homes.

 

Edited December 16, 2020 by pirouets
spelling, grammar and clarity

[Ozexpatriate]

There are no easy solutions.

 

Like closing the restaurants and bars is bad for the economy, closing the schools is bad for the educational development of children.

 

In the case of schools, the most vulnerable population is probably not the students, but the teachers and potentially older relatives of the students at home. The age distribution of teachers in most places covers a wide range and many of them have underlying health conditions. A summer school teacher in Arizona who succumbed to CoViD-19  was widely reported.

 

If schools are reopened, should teachers get danger money? Should they be permitted to opt out?  What if there are not enough teachers?

 

While the frustration of all those who have lost jobs or a sense of normalcy to the pandemic seems constantly reported, the trauma of people who lost loved ones considered "essential" and forced to work in what would later be recognized as unsafe conditions seems less so.

 

Universities are a different problem. Here the schools have stayed closed since March. When Universities reopened at the end of the summer, state-wide infection rates skyrocketed, directly related to students - at least in some part due to student parties that were in direct disobedience to distancing rules. Some Universities resorted to expelling flagrant abusers and most of them have reversed their decisions for in-person classes. While correlation is not causality, the timing of the return to Universities is the inflection point for the third wave in the US. Currently*, CoViD-19 is the number 1 killer in the US.

 

* This might not be the case if measured over all 2020.

 

Had people rigourously adhered to distancing and masking in a hard shutdown last Spring, none of this might have been an issue. Several countries accomplished this.

 

With the vaccine, all this will eventually pass much like it eventually did in 1919.

 

Edited December 16, 2020 by Ozexpatriate

[lapford34102]

5 minutes ago, pirouets said:

I also know that Chris Whitty made a statement to MPs that they did not fully understand the Care home model when this hit, in particular where people worked in multiple homes and became carriers between homes.

That was admitted to by one of those doing the modelling in a BBC documentary not  that long ago.

As a retired teacher with contacts in a couple of local secondary schools I've had two points made to me. One was that prior to half term they were doing OK all things considered but after the pupils returned the situation  started deteriorating amongst both pupils and staff. Also mentioned was school transport, particularly where multiple schools used the same service. A pupil using a bus in school A and testing positive also impacted  pupils across year groups and also pupils from school B.

Stu

 

 

 

[black and decker boy]

So you close schools, where are working parents going to turn for childcare during work hours?

 

Grandparents. 
 

the precise people you say need to be protected from children varying the virus.

 

kids will still mix, the virus will still spread but we will have a whole generation with poorer skills and a much poorer future.

[Neil]

8 hours ago, Ozexpatriate said:

....If schools are reopened, should teachers get danger money? Should they be permitted to opt out?  What if there are not enough teachers?.....

 

Here in the UK health and safety at work legislation gives the right/confers the duty not to do stuff which is dangerous. Culturally we've suffered from those who have complained about 'health and safety gone mad' which from my years as a union rep added pressure to employees not to complain about dangerous practises. It takes some guts to stand up and say 'I think that's dangerous and I'm not going to do it'  but there would be a strong case for those in vulnerable groups or who had spouses/partners/household members in vulnerable groups to do so.

[Ron Ron Ron]

12 hours ago, phil-b259 said:

The early data did back up this stance - but with the caveat that the UK Governments testing regime was (and remains) woeful compared to the likes of Germany.......

 

The testing regime may have been woefully inadequate at the start of the pandemic, as we didn’t have the testing capability or infrastructure on the scale needed. Who was going to do the tests, where were the tests going to come from? They also had to devise suitable and more reliable tests for this particular virus as well.

We didn’t have the labs or trained technicians available until the wheels finally got into motion.

 

However, I don’t think you can say the situation remains “woeful”, as the U.K. has been carrying out the highest rate of testing in Europe. Far more testing than Germany and other leading countries. (WHO etc.)

Germany by the way, having got off relatively lightly in the first wave, has suffered worst than the U.K. during this second wave, with a daily death toll that exceeds all but that of Italy ( where it has all gone pear shaped again after doing so well). So not a model I’d immediately cite in comparisons.

 

 

[Bernard Lamb]

12 hours ago, hayfield said:

Bernard

 

My niece is a school teacher in Kent and caught covid last week, infecting her fiancé. Thankfully she moved away from both her parents and grandparents a year ago.

 

Replacement meals have been provided in the past, but again are these reasons good enough for so much carnage ?

 

The first scandal was the care homes in the first wave, though I believe the owners of these care home should have been more prepared, 50% were and suffered few deaths

 

Is this next scandal going to be the way this pandemic has used the education system to  infect society ?

John,

Once various pressure groups demanded that things be opened up schools became an insignificant area. As a cyclist I was disgusted by the attitude of the cycling organizations to want to start competitive events again.  A quick look at any rugby club training ground will soon show you how kids are mixing in close contact. At least the schools have some rules on social distancing and direct contact.

My daughter gave up a very well paid job as she wanted to go into teaching. She was frustrated when the school was shut. It took three weeks to get the children back to any where near normal behaviour when they did go back. She does not want to go through that again.

By contrast teachers at a local private school were put under great pressure to carry on and it was made very clear that their job depended on keeping the parents happy. No fees = no job.

As for care homes. I know one that is Covid free and has first class procedures in place. However it costs a small fortune do be able to do this. There are many that simply do not have the funds. Many also had great problems in sourcing PPE.

Bernard

[hayfield]

12 hours ago, BoD said:

For a long time the ‘powers that be’ were arguing that there was no spread in schools and that cases were always brought in from outside of school.

 

I seem to remember being told that it was the bubbles would contain the spread of the virus, as the virus had to come into the schools. Also children are more likely to be both asymmetric and super spreaders. Perfect storm !!!

 

The schools may keep the bubbles separate in schools, but then let them arrive and leave all at the same time. negating all the segregation during the school day. 

 

As I said the 2 local schools have now been closed for over a week, according to the covid 19 dashboard 3 weeks ago our 2 villages were down to 4 cases in the past 7 days and just above the yellow area. Yesterday we had 91 cases over the 7 day rolling period with a rolling rate of 994 per 100,000. The main area we are grouped in has a rate of 327 per 100k

 

As I said we perhaps are a bit luckier than others, living in a semi rural area, so have space to about us. Our medical centre is vaccinating those most venerable and hopefully the outbreak we have will be limited to those most able to handle it

 

But clearly the so call experts plan to keep our little society (and it seems most of Essex) safe has dramatically failed.