Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[iL Dottore]

3 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

You are on grave danger of perceiving an argument where there is none.

 

I’m not “weaponising” anything, merely pointing out numerically supported facts.

 

Im not opposed to vaccination, nor am I very patient with those who decline it for no good reason, and thereby act as spreaders. I merely sought to counter your point about the Swiss experience likely being universal, because it doesn’t seem to be currently.

I think we may be talking at cross purposes (but are in general agreement) My overarching point being no matter what the local situation may be (my comment about “no matter how you slice it…”), the fact remains that due to Covid, health systems around the world are starting to malfunction to the point that care for the entire population is being jeopardised.

 

As for “weaponising” my apologies for not being clearer, my comment was referring to the fact that things that also crop up with other infectious diseases for which people have been vaccinated and are unremarked upon, are being used to “prove” that covid vaccines are “dangerous” by the anti-vaxxers.

[beast66606]

1 hour ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

 

So something that helps improve the situation is to be thrown out because it fails to provide 100% protection.

 

I assume you don't approve of seat belts - after all nearly 100% of people killed in a car due to an RTA are wearing one!

 

Perhaps you can explain your thought process here

 

Quote

I'm fully jabbed for both Covid and flu

 

 

[Nearholmer]

1 hour ago, iL Dottore said:

due to Covid, health systems around the world are starting to malfunction to the point that care for the entire population is being jeopardised.

That is certainly the U.K. experience, and very much so. The combination of Covid, and precautions against Covid effectively crushed our health services for most of 2020, and half of 2021, leaving behind huge waiting-times for many treatments at hospital, and a far poorer service from GPs than in the past (the widely-disliked ‘telephone consultations’). We started out with a health service that was slowly falling behind demand/need, and ended-up with one that is dreadfully far behind demand/need.

[Dunsignalling]

1 hour ago, Reorte said:

 

It's when your principles are tested that you know whether or not you truly hold them. So whilst I firmly believe that the anti-vax campaigners (as in shouldn't have it, not as in shouldn't be made to have it - an important and big difference) are idiots I am not prepared to reject the concept of rights for people because I happen to disagree with them. Doing otherwise is a very dark path to head down.

Anybody can refuse the vaccination, but that does not impose any obligation on society (collectively or individually) to save them from the personal consequences of doing so. 

 

Indeed if the decision to refrain creates the potential of having to deny someone else life-saving treatment (e.g. for cancer) in order to do so, I'd say there's  a moral imperative to exclude the refuseniks from treatment.

 

The practical fallout from vaccine refusal is that around two thirds of the ICU capacity currently occupied by Covid patients is (imho) avoidably unavailable for treating other illnesses or injury.

 

John

[beast66606]

3 hours ago, iL Dottore said:

• **Due to having to take precautions because of the unvaccinated**, the whole process of patients being seen and being referred to specialists for specific treatment has slowed down so much that it means that oncology patients (amongst others) are now frequently seen when the disease is too advanced for meaningful treatment!
• So, thanks to the actions of a very-selfish few, a hell of a lot of people are being denied proper treatment or even the chance to live!

 

I'll try and make it easier for those who heard a whoosh as my point went over their heads

 

** The GP is not taking precautions solely because of the unvaccinated as the vaccinated can carry and/or catch Covid too - and even though (a later point you made) the effect will almost certainly be lessened that reduced effect cannot be guaranteed for everyone and so precautions still need to be taken.

So what is the level when your GP will stop precautions ? 95% vaccinated ? 99% vaccinated ? 141% ? (Gibraltar anyone ? - I mentioned it once but got away with it as it doesn't fit the narrative), for which age group ? all ? some ?  - those under 12 aren't being offered the vaccine but could still carry it, so no treatment for them ? PCR test for all first ?

This - to me - is why the last comment in the bit I've quoted is wrong and this is the point I made (or thought I had, probably badly) in my first post, nothing to do with 35% of the 18% of the 23% of the 47% who expressed a preference and there was no denial of anything in my comment other than "it's solely down to the unvaccinated" that extra precautions need to be (currently*) taken.

 

 

* like others - I hope - I also wish for the day when things are a lot closer to the old normal, maybe one day.

[Andy Hayter]

1 hour ago, beast66606 said:

 

Perhaps you can explain your thought process here

 

 

 

 

The thought process was simple.  Your post came across as critical that vaccination is not a perfect solution.  You quoted 35% of hospital admissions were double vaccinated people.  I don't dispute the number but taken as a single piece of evidence it is out of context with the totality of benefit of vaccination.

 

So I chose to take another statistic in exactly the same vein.  Seat belts.  Ignore the benefits and just report on one number without context.

[Dunsignalling]

16 minutes ago, beast66606 said:

 

* like others - I hope - I also wish for the day when things are a lot closer to the old normal, maybe one day.

If current levels of non-vaccinaton are maintained, don't hold your breath for the next decade or so.

 

Wishing won't make it happen and the simple precautions that have a chance of doing so are being allowed to dwindle away through a lack of governmental support and will likely disappear, to all intents and purposes, by next summer.

 

John

Edited November 21, 2021 by Dunsignalling

[Neil]

17 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

.... and the simple precautions that have a chance of doing so are being allowed to dwindle away through a lack of governmental support and will likely disappear, to all intents and purposes, by next summer.

 

John

 

Yes that's the bit I don't get. Why, when faced with a pandemic which threatens both lives and economic well-being, would you not chose to deploy each and every method of containing, treating and eliminating it at your disposal?

[Nearholmer]

24 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

If current levels of non-vaccinaton are maintained, don't hold your breath for the next decade or so.

Yes, I do really wonder sometimes where all this is going medium-term, and where we will get to with the policy that is effectively in being in England: voluntary vaccination, and nothing meaningful beyond that.

 

The ‘play out’ if we continue exactly as we are would seem to me to be:

 

- six-monthly vaccination;

 

- gradually reducing uptake of vaccination among <50yo as everyone gets fed-up with doing something that is largely for someone else’s benefit, rather than their own;

 

- a simmering ‘endemic’ with localised fare-ups, which means that the elderly and otherwise vulnerable, despite being regularly vaccinated, are continually under threat from it;

 

- reduction in average life-span by a few years as a steady number of mostly elderly people are despatched by it sooner than would otherwise be the case. 

 

- the bnggeration-factor that Il Dottore talks about in health services, as they have to account for the possibility of patients being carriers of Covid.

 

That doesn’t sound like paradise on Earth to me, and of it is where we are going, then there ought to be a properly-informed public debate about it, and the alternatives, which might include compulsory vaccination, or hefty restrictions on the unvaccinated.

 

Weird as it may seem, is it possible that Covid strategy could become an electoral issue?
 

 

[Dunsignalling]

3 minutes ago, Neil said:

 

Yes that's the bit I don't get. Why, when faced with a pandemic which threatens both lives and economic well-being, would you not chose to deploy each and every method of containing, treating and eliminating it at your disposal?

I think there is a mood abroad, within government and most parts of society, that the next best thing to normality is something that looks like it....

 

John

[Nearholmer]

16 minutes ago, Neil said:

would you not chose to deploy each and every method of containing, treating and eliminating it at your disposal?

Cost vs benefit.

 

Cost of present strategy in England? About a thousand lives each week cut short by an average of about two or three years, plus a load of hassle and danger for health service staff and patients.

 

Benefits of present strategy in England? Everything else is pretty much back to normal, or getting there, the wheels of commerce turn, and, so long as they don’t think about the above cost, everyone begins to recover the spring in their step. Circuses are open for business, bread is on sale.

[Dunsignalling]

11 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

Cost vs benefit.

 

Cost of present strategy in England? About a thousand lives each week cut short by an average of about two or three years, plus a load of hassle and danger for health service staff and patients.

 

Benefits of present strategy in England? Everything else is pretty much back to normal, or getting there, the wheels of commerce turn, and, so long as they don’t think about the above cost, everyone begins to recover the spring in their step. Circuses are open for business, bread is on sale.

Though I think an average of "two to three" might be a little on the low side, some are going ten to fifteen years "early".

 

But just think of the potential savings in the state pension budget....

 

John

Edited November 21, 2021 by Dunsignalling

[Nearholmer]

10 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

Though I think an average of "two to three" might be a little on the low side, some are going ten to fifteen years "early".

That’s the nature of averages, and clearly it’s too soon to be certain what the actual figures will be, whether there will be a cumulative effect for instance, but the country with the biggest drop in life expectancy due to Covid last year was Russia, where it fell by c2.6years. In the U.K. it fell by about 1 year.

 

 

[beast66606]

1 hour ago, Andy Hayter said:

 

The thought process was simple.  Your post came across as critical that vaccination is not a perfect solution.  You quoted 35% of hospital admissions were double vaccinated people.  I don't dispute the number but taken as a single piece of evidence it is out of context with the totality of benefit of vaccination.

 

So I chose to take another statistic in exactly the same vein.  Seat belts.  Ignore the benefits and just report on one number without context.

 

What I actually said was 35% of people in hospital are double jabbed so blaming the non-vaccinated for NHS delays (iwhich is what the post I was commenting on claimed) is wrong as precautions are still needed even for jabbed people (I'm not going to repost the whole context here, you must have read that already to comment although I'm not sure you have as your comment doesn't actually connect with what I posted) -  nothing to do with efficacy, nothing to do with whether people should be vaccinated or not, nothing to do with crash test dummies.

 

I'm fully vaccinated, flu and Covid, I'm taking part in several research projects for the ONS - to help all - and I'm currently working at a school facilitating mock GCSE for the students so they can become our future - I'm very happy with what I'm doing to help beat the virus and maintain as much normality as possible, I don't need  - or accept - people accusing me of things I haven't said or done thank you.

 

[hayfield]

14 minutes ago, beast66606 said:

 

What I actually said was 35% of people in hospital are double jabbed so blaming the non-vaccinated for NHS delays (iwhich is what the post I was commenting on claimed) is wrong as precautions are still needed even for jabbed people (I'm not going to repost the whole context here, you must have read that already to comment although I'm not sure you have as your comment doesn't actually connect with what I posted) -  nothing to do with efficacy, nothing to do with whether people should be vaccinated or not, nothing to do with crash test dummies.

 

I'm fully vaccinated, flu and Covid, I'm taking part in several research projects for the ONS - to help all - and I'm currently working at a school facilitating mock GCSE for the students so they can become our future - I'm very happy with what I'm doing to help beat the virus and maintain as much normality as possible, I don't need  - or accept - people accusing me of things I haven't said or done thank you.

 

 

During the winter respiratory illnesses always cause the NHS problems, those who are in hospital with covid who have been double jabbed are in the main elderly and or people with other serious health conditions who are far more likely than others to suffer other serious respiratory conditions which possibly would have needed hospital treatment

 

Those in hospital who are unvaccinated quite likely had they been vaccinated suffered a much milder reaction or none at all from this horrible virus. Those who sadly passed away had they been vaccinated statistically stood a very good chance of surviving

 

Potentially 2/3rds of the ITU beds would have been available to treat others or take the pressure of the staff

[Nearholmer]

Here is the graphic of U.K. hospital occupancy snipped from Prof Spector’s latest, illustrating that Covid occupancy is currently nowhere near the position earlier in the year. It also, of course makes it clear that we are going into winter with overall very high occupancy, leaving little for the typical post-Christmas surge in respiratory illnesses.

 

This seems to be overall occupancy, rather than intensive care, where the proportions are doubtless different.

Our local hospital currently has c30 Covid patients (down significantly over the past few days), 2 on ventilation, and pre-Covid had (IIRC) 14 ‘critical care’ beds for a catchment population of c275k.
 

Back calculating from how many Covid patients they take in each day, the average hospital stay for each is about one week, which suggests that for most it is less than that, the average being raised by a small number of people who are very ill indeed.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 21, 2021 by Nearholmer

[iL Dottore]

A sobering read and corroboration of my GP Friend’s observation - but this time from within the NHS: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/21/icu-is-full-of-the-unvaccinated-my-patience-with-them-is-wearing-thin

[Nearholmer]

What we could do with to make things totally clear are some solid numbers.

 

There are multiple sets of figures around, presented in nice easy to read graphics, that show vaccinated vs unvaccinated split for hospital admission, intensive care, and ventilated, but they don’t differentiate by age, and all the ones I can find are from the US, and when vaccination rates were much lower, so aren’t very helpful. 

[APOLLO]

Were the little used Nightingale hospitals dismantled completely ? Is there any chance of one or two opening again as needed, though I understand staffing would be a major problem.

 

Perhaps the unvaccinated could be looked after there by the unvaccinated NHS staff (No I'm not trying to be sarcastic or nasty, just looking at the problem from another angle). Something needs to be done.

 

Had a walk this afternoon and bumped into an old workmate. His son lost his life to Covid recently. Very sad. Brings the whole event back into reality for me.

 

Frightening the events taking place in Europe. I'm beginning to wonder if I will ever leave this island again.

 

Stay safe.

 

Brit15

[Dunsignalling]

Our local Nightingale has been repurposed to provide a specific range of surgical procedures as part of the effort being made to catch up with the non-Covid backlog that has built up.

 

John

Edited November 21, 2021 by Dunsignalling

[beast66606]

1 hour ago, iL Dottore said:

A sobering read and corroboration of my GP Friend’s observation - but this time from within the NHS: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/21/icu-is-full-of-the-unvaccinated-my-patience-with-them-is-wearing-thin

 

I notice the article doesn't mention HAI which seems strange given that the NHS itself thinks these could amount to around 10-20% of Covid cases in hospital, I would expect a consultant to acknowledge this as a cause of some of the cases as the figure is reasonably high.
 

[beast66606]

 

 

5 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

What we could do with to make things totally clear are some solid numbers.

 

There are multiple sets of figures around, presented in nice easy to read graphics, that show vaccinated vs unvaccinated split for hospital admission, intensive care, and ventilated, but they don’t differentiate by age, and all the ones I can find are from the US, and when vaccination rates were much lower, so aren’t very helpful. 

 

Not sure if you've seen this link, lots of interesting data on here - not what you muse but some interesting data nonetheless. Anonymous mentions NHS staff being forced to take the vaccine, that's recent  - 10 Nov - so we are talking recent data - take a look at the various spreadsheets on the page especially the one which shows critical care bed occupancy for both Covid and Non-Covid.

 

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

 

 

[Nearholmer]

The trouble with anecdotal accounts is that they can be simultaneously 100% factual and unrepresentative of the broader situation. I tend to view them as telling me more about how the teller feels than about the broader picture, and knowing that a person working in ICU is ‘at the end of their tether’ is a fact in itself.

 

The trouble with statistics (and we still don’t seem to have stats that show % split vaccinated and not in ICU across the country) is that unless an array of figures, looking at different factors is presented, which requires a bit of effort on the part of both author and reader, they can too easily be cherry-picked to provide sound bites-of-stupidity.

 

Its the job of government and their specialist advisers to craft true, simple, and helpful messages out of all of this, and IMO sometimes they have done, and sometimes they haven’t.

 

 

 

Edited November 22, 2021 by Nearholmer

[Neil]

5 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

The trouble with anecdotal accounts is that they can be simultaneously 100% factual and unrepresentative of the broader situation. I tend to view them as telling me more about how the teller feels than about the broader picture, and knowing that a person working in ICU is ‘at the end of their tether’ is a fact in itself.

 

The trouble with statistics (and we still don’t seem to have stats that show % split vaccinated and not in ICU across the country) is that unless an array of figures, looking at different factors is presented, which requires a bit of effort on the part of both author and reader, they can too easily be cherry-picked to provide sound bites-of-stupidity. ....

 

There are two ways of looking at this while statistics allow measurement and comparisons of simple factual stuff they're not much use with the less easy to pin down stuff like staff morale. In some circumstances it's tempting to extrapolate quantifiable data like workplace absenteeism due to sickness and use this as a measure of mood and morale but different workplaces have different cultures around absenteeism. For instance years ago when I worked for British Rail Engineering Ltd there was a view that one's holiday allowance could be topped up by the number of days that one would receive full sick pay for. Later as a teacher the culture was that one would come in to work as long as one still had a pulse. I'd suggest that absenteeism was worse at the railway but morale (in a sink school) was worse. Anecdotal stuff can tell you more than statistics in such situations.

[Nearholmer]

2 minutes ago, Neil said:

they're not much use with the less easy to pin down stuff like staff morale.

Absolutely.

 

Unless you get into very regular and frequent staff “satisfaction” surveys, and use the stats from those, and even they don’t tell “the whole truth”. You need to “listen to the meta-grumbles”, and unless the culture is one that allows people to express themselves freely and openly, managers and directors can’t/don’t. Burn-out is especially tricky, because highly-motivated people often get a buzz out of working to their limits, then suddenly hit a wall of exhaustion that is terrible for them, and can turn outward and become destructive to the job as well ……. That’s why I remarked about the person teaching the end of their tether.