Covid - coming out of Lockdown 3 - no politics, less opinion and more facts and information.

[Neil]

For information. Today another You Gov survey arrived in my e-mails. After a short section asking my opinion on toys and games came a couple of Covid related questions; would I support a return to working from home where possible and would I support the reintroduction of rules requiring mask wearing in all indoor public spaces. My answers are immaterial but it is of interest that You Gov have been commissioned to ask these questions. It won't be the Welsh Assembly as mask wearing never went away, likewise Scotland; the obvious conclusion is that opinion is being sought on 'plan B'.

[monkeysarefun]

NSW daily new cases are  at  circa 180 a day on a downward trend and we still have masking inside, vaccine mandates to non essential shops and venues and work from home if able. 

 

On Sunday the government decreed  that restrictions had eased enough and that our  vaccination level had become sufficiently high  that they were able to  give authorisation to a protest march for people to protest against the restrictions and vaccinations...

Edited November 22, 2021 by monkeysarefun

[hayfield]

An interesting article on the BBC website "Can the UK avoid a Europe style return to lockdown"

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59378849

 

The first thing is should we worry about the higher level of infections over the past few days?

 

Given we are still conducting far more tests than other European countries, are we not bound to find more infections ?

 

Both Germany and the Netherlands are now seeing very high instances of infection and deaths, what they have in common is that in the past they have suffered lightly when compared with the likes of Italy, UK Belgium. May be its just Covid has finally found a way round their defences?

 

At the moment the southern European states are fairing much better, is it the warmer climate that's helping 

 

Lets hope the optimism about the UK in the article is well founded

[Dunsignalling]

48 minutes ago, hayfield said:

 

Given we are still conducting far more tests than other European countries, are we not bound to find more infections ?

 

In purely numerical terms, yes. However but what's more relevant is whether our testing regime  delivers proportionately more positive results than those arising from lower numbers of tests conducted elsewhere. 

 

My feeling is that, in countries with lower testing rates, a higher threshold for being tested means that higher rates of infection are likely to be revealed, i.e. fewer negative subjects  will be tested as a percentage of the whole. How much that balances things out internationally is for those better at maths than I to determine.

 

More widespread testing will better pick up those with asymptomatic Covid, but only among those who need to be tested for other reasons. If I, for instance, were to become infected asymptomatically, there'd be no reason for me to seek a test. 

 

More testing will also weed out more people with similar symptoms to Covid who aren't infected so there will be another kind of "balancing out" going on, too.

 

I think there's a danger of complacency arising from drawing any "straight line" interpretation of the statistical effects of more widespread testing.

 

John 

Edited November 23, 2021 by Dunsignalling

[Andy Kirkham]

1 hour ago, hayfield said:

At the moment the southern European states are fairing much better, is it the warmer climate that's helping 

 

Lets hope the optimism about the UK in the article is well founded

Not only southern Europe, but also countries further south. For instance India is reporting remarkably low numbers. This article asks why, but doesn't really seem to suggest a convicing answer https://theconversation.com/why-are-covid-cases-in-india-decreasing-despite-the-low-double-vaccination-rate-171736

[Hobby]

With regard to this:

 

"The first thing is should we worry about the higher level of infections over the past few days?"

 

He does point out that it's best to look at the overall trend, not the day to day figures, and they show, to quote him:

 

"infection rates have bobbled along, small rises being followed by similar drops."

 

It's been going on long enough (since July) to show a good trend, and that has been that it's been pretty stable.

Edited November 23, 2021 by Hobby

[hayfield]

1 hour ago, Dunsignalling said:

In purely numerical terms, yes. However but what's more relevant is whether our testing regime  delivers proportionately more positive results than those arising from lower numbers of tests conducted elsewhere. 

 

My feeling is that, in countries with lower testing rates, a higher threshold for being tested means that higher rates of infection are likely to be revealed, i.e. fewer negative subjects  will be tested as a percentage of the whole. How much that balances things out internationally is for those better at maths than I to determine.

 

More widespread testing will better pick up those with asymptomatic Covid, but only among those who need to be tested for other reasons. If I, for instance, were to become infected asymptomatically, there'd be no reason for me to seek a test. 

 

More testing will also weed out more people with similar symptoms to Covid who aren't infected so there will be another kind of "balancing out" going on, too.

 

I think there's a danger of complacency arising from drawing any "straight line" interpretation of the statistical effects of more widespread testing.

 

John 

 

John

 

That could account for some of the differences, but looking at yesterday's Worldometer The UK and Germany have similar amount of new cases, 45k /40.5k, Germany's testing is about a 5th  of ours per mill population. Then look at the serious critical cases  911/3645. Monday is a bad day for death registrations so its wrong to compare these. Given that we have had higher infections in the weeks past and Germany is on the increase the comparisons are quite different 

 

The other factor is the ONS testing actually seems to be higher than those listed daily, so it could be said even our reports are under what is actually happening in our population .

 

But there is something more happening, especially in Germany and the Netherlands, in the past they both have seemingly kept the worst affects of the virus down, but covid has somehow broken through their measures.

 

Clearly several European governments are very worried about this latest infection wave, at a time when one would have expected given the data about how successful the vaccine rollout has been recently within the EU showing numbers that have been vaccinated.

 

One piece in Euronews about what the EU can do about the latest flare up states that Boris is planning 10m booster jabs by Christmas, well we are well past 15 million now. Are they that far behind the curve?

 

The graph issued by the BBC today about the European Nations at the most risk of serious covid illness this winter makes quite chilling reading

[hayfield]

9 minutes ago, Hobby said:

With regard to this:

 

"The first thing is should we worry about the higher level of infections over the past few days?"

 

He does point out that it's best to look at the overall trend, not the day to day figures, and they show, to quote him:

 

"infection rates have bobbled along, small rises being followed by similar drops."

 

It's been going on long enough (since July) to show a good trend, and that has been that it's been pretty stable.

 

I think its more about who is being infected, the latest heat map of the ages being affected looks to be in younger children and their parents, both groups who are more able to cope with it. Its stopping infection into older ages and those with serious ill-health conditions.

 

I guess its a case of keeping away or taking more precautions from major sources of infection 

[Andy Kirkham]

Cases have also fallen rapidly in Japan, which has led to a theory that the Delta variant there  "has mutated itself out of existence" https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/new-research-suggests-delta-strain-drove-itself-to-extinction-in-japan/news-story/b0c7459c05dedb1ddb41908743b585fd

 

If this is true, then presumably the effect would be temporary and it would only be a matte of time before some other, more vigorous strain took hold and started to proliferate.

[Hobby]

1 hour ago, Andy Kirkham said:

it would only be a matte of time before some other, more vigorous strain took hold and started to proliferate.

 

No.

 

It can go either way, so you can't make such a statement as fact. Past experience of viruses has been that it's the other way, they've mutated into relatively harmless variants and/or humans have developed resistance, otherwise we'd have been wiped out by now. But at the end of the day we simply don't know which way it's going to go.

[Dunsignalling]

1 hour ago, Andy Kirkham said:

Cases have also fallen rapidly in Japan, which has led to a theory that the Delta variant there  "has mutated itself out of existence" https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/new-research-suggests-delta-strain-drove-itself-to-extinction-in-japan/news-story/b0c7459c05dedb1ddb41908743b585fd

 

If this is true, then presumably the effect would be temporary and it would only be a matte of time before some other, more vigorous strain took hold and started to proliferate.

It's an interesting premise that the Delta variant possibly defines the limit of Covid-19's ability to mutate further.

 

Very encouraging if true, as it seems to have driven out earlier variants wherever it went.

 

Time will tell.....

 

John  

[Nearholmer]

28 minutes ago, Hobby said:

Past experience of viruses has been that it's the other way, they've mutated into relatively harmless variants and/or humans have developed resistance

I think what AK is saying is that if Delta has gone extinct in Japan by over-mutating, then that leaves a gap into which another variant (including presumably Delta-pre-Japanese-mutations being reintroduced) could step.

 

If so, that makes perfect sense to me.
 

The suggestion isn’t that the thing has mutated to become less virulent, but that it in Japan it has mutated so as to be unable to reproduce itself, and died-out.

[Reorte]

3 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

I think what AK is saying is that if Delta has gone extinct in Japan by over-mutating, then that leaves a gap into which another variant (including presumably Delta-pre-Japanese-mutations being reintroduced) could step.

"Over-mutating" sounds a bit odd. Any new mutation to an individual virus will either be successful or it won't; if it's successful it may outcompete the existing strains and thus replace them, if it's not then it'll fail and the existing strains will carry on. Mutations don't happen to the whole population in one go.

[Nearholmer]

Here is what the Professor says;

 

“The Delta variant in Japan was highly transmissible and keeping other variants out. But as the mutations piled up, we believe it eventually became a faulty virus and it was unable to make copies of itself. Considering that the cases haven’t been increasing, we think that at some point during such mutations it headed straight toward its natural extinction.”

 

He expresses surprise at his own findings.

 

I’m no genetics expert, while he or she is, so you’d better ask them.

Edited November 23, 2021 by Nearholmer

[Andy Kirkham]

42 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

I think what AK is saying is that if Delta has gone extinct in Japan by over-mutating, then that leaves a gap into which another variant (including presumably Delta-pre-Japanese-mutations being reintroduced) could step.

Yes, that's what I meant.

[Nearholmer]

41 minutes ago, Reorte said:

it's not then it'll fail and the existing strains will carry on.

Indeed.

 

But if the country is currently free of other strains then they get temporary respite, and if the other strains currently present are weedy ones, then temporary partial respite.

[Nick C]

If that's the case, then I wonder if it's feasible to capture that faulty strain, and introduce it into other areas, in order to then eliminate the Delta strain elsewhere? (I'm not an epidemiologist, so I dn't know if that's even possible...)

[Andy Kirkham]

33 minutes ago, Nick C said:

If that's the case, then I wonder if it's feasible to capture that faulty strain, and introduce it into other areas, in order to then eliminate the Delta strain elsewhere? (I'm not an epidemiologist, so I dn't know if that's even possible...)

 

I don't think it can work like that; the supposed faultiness lies in its inability to reproduce, so it can hardly displace a strain that is reproducing.

[hayfield]

Yesterdays European results makes very alarming reading. In todays papers Germany 7 day death rate is twice the UK's, all of a sudden France has sadly taken off in both infections and deaths. as have serious/critical cases in several countries, lets hope this is a peak in their spikes, but this data bit sadly points not to be so

 

Oxford -Astra Zeneca vaccine is back in the headlines in one paper, latest data shows that its much better at maintaining T cells than the other vaccines, the best results is when the Oxford- Astra Zeneca vaccine if followed by Pfizer.

 

The columnist states the row between the EU and Astra Zeneca may have cost thousands of lives, as they believe that the UK has been shielded from the worst effects of this latest wave due to our speedy and effective vaccination drive

 

Yesterday there was an interview with Kate Bingham, who stated had the search for a vaccine been left to politicians and civil servants, out outcome would have been very different as they spend too much time trying not to make wrong decisions and covering their own backs, may be a bit of sour grapes, but she certainly had a massive positive effect on all of our lives  

[Nearholmer]

The civil service and government “groupthink” problem has been highlighted multiple times by the pandemic. It was highlighted by the Select Committee, I think by the ONS ‘audit’, and certainly by Dominic Cummings, although it’s hard to pick out clear assessment from bitterness in a lot what he says. So she possibly isn’t displaying sour grapes.

 

Its a bit OT, but what I’ve never heard is anyone propose a solid solution to it that wouldn’t incur a huge risk of messing-up the impartiality that the civil service is generally very good at. Maybe part of the answer would be to make civil service employment at the upper-middle level truly attractive, so that good, broadly-experienced people move into it as part of their career, providing a counterpoint to ‘lifers’, whereas there seems to be a strong tendency to talk endlessly about the cost of the civil service, while ignoring its value. 

[Hobby]

6 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

Maybe part of the answer would be to make civil service employment at the upper-middle level truly attractive, so that good, broadly-experienced people move into it as part of their career, providing a counterpoint to ‘lifers’, 

 

You could argue the same for MPs I think!

[Dunsignalling]

19 hours ago, Andy Kirkham said:

 

I don't think it can work like that; the supposed faultiness lies in its inability to reproduce, so it can hardly displace a strain that is reproducing.

Agreed, it's only the potent version of the Delta variant that has driven out its predecessors, and introducing it deliberately on the assumption it would later fizzle out of its own accord would be a very high-risk strategy.

 

John

[Nearholmer]

Something to be borne in mind about strategic decision-making in the public sector is that it is genuinely more complex than in the private sector.
 

The private sector has many factors to account for, but has a sort-of simple guiding star in the form of profit, hopefully long not short term, and/or ‘shareholder value’. Public sector strategy has to balance-off a great many guiding stars, a whole constellation of them, which tend to shift about in the heavens as administrations change. It’s only really when things get incredibly pressing, war or pandemic, that the public service gets given a ‘pole star’ to work to, or perhaps a small and simple constellation, and most or many of the other stars get switched-off.

 

Very far OT for this thread is the question of long-term sustainability, climate change etc., but look how difficult governments find it to focus as tightly on that guiding star as they need to, because their populations need them to simultaneously steer toward other stars, things like employment, prosperity, being able to afford to heat their homes etc.

[hayfield]

32 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

The private sector has many factors to account for, but has a sort-of simple guiding star in the form of profit, hopefully long not short term, and/or ‘shareholder value’. Public sector strategy has to balance-off a great many guiding stars, a whole constellation of them, which tend to shift about in the heavens as administrations change. It’s only really when things get incredibly pressing, war or pandemic, that the public service gets given a ‘pole star’ to work to, or perhaps a small and simple constellation, and most or many of the other stars get switched-off.

 

 

I think the drive to get a vaccine has shown up this system for what it is, where there is a will mountains can be removed. There seems to have been a step change in new medicine procurement where the time to bring it to the market has been shortened. Hopefully this will devolve into all areas of government, a need to do things better. 

[Dunsignalling]

Interesting bit on the news earlier (though I didn't catch absolutely all of it) included a doctor's comment that he'd noticed the Delta variant has been hitting previously healthy 40-to-50-year-olds harder of late.

 

With so many in the formerly most-vulnerable groups now well-protected, might we be seeing the virus adapting itself to attack others more effectively?

 

John

Edited November 24, 2021 by Dunsignalling