Transport For London , December 2021, Section 114 "Bankruptcy" - Service Cuts?

[Nearholmer]

24 minutes ago, 62613 said:

In the days of BR there was the borad interposed between the ministry and the actual railway; there isn't really such a thing now. 

 

If any model is to work properly, there needs to be something, or in the case of The Commissioner in London, somebody, between the people who set general direction and policy objectives, and the  professionals who run the day-to-day operation and deliver upgrades and renewals, otherwise accountability and delivery go completely to pot.

[phil-b259]

5 hours ago, lmsforever said:

I do know what a franchise agreement is and why they are there ,Chiltern have fulfilled  the requirements of it and more and they deserve to stay for another six years. Franchises are the way to run our system and someone has to be in control hence Whitehall so whats your problem ?

 

The point is that pretty much anything substantive Chiltern did still needed sign off from the DfT in some shape or form to happen. You seem very keen to praise Chiltern without recognising that.

 

During good times this need for permission from the DfT wasn't an issue and it suited both parties - from a Government perspective is showed that privatisation was delivering for the taxpayer, increasing ridership, etc while Chiltern got praise from users for the day to day experience.

 

However we are not in 'good times' any more. As this article https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/dec/05/back-bad-old-days-swingeing-rail-cuts-alarm-bells-ringing indicates savage cuts are being demanded by the DfT and Chiltern will not be immune - I have already highlighted that you almost had a head on crash where the RAIB said underfunding / understaffing at Chiltern was a significant factor.

 

Naturally the Government will seek to protect itself and Chiltern will become the fall guy in all this and face anger from users as timetables are cut, station staffing cut, industrial relations descend to rock bottom etc.

 

Also Chiltern have not been given a 'franchise extension' - old school franchises don't exist anymore, any operations not bought in house (i.e. LNER, Northern and SE) are being done on a management contract basis. Ariva have therefore simply been given a contract to continue managing the Chiltern operation for another 6 years, with any freedom for Chiltern to innovate (unless it cuts costs for the DfT) ruthlessly stripped out.

 

Edited December 6, 2021 by phil-b259

[mdvle]

Interesting linked article, I particularly like this paragraph:

 

Quote

Operators fear the reputational damage, and financial hit, of managing decline and likely industrial action. Under the new contracts, at least 20% of the potential profit will be linked to performance measures including customer satisfaction. One insider said: “If you’re setting the budget at a point where customers and staff are going to be unhappy, it looks pretty hard to get those fees.”

 

So, operator profits are based on customer satisfaction and the government is imposing conditions that will destroy customer satisfaction.

 

Lawsuits to come?  Refusal of operators to pick up new contracts in the future without substantial changes the government doesn't want?

 

 

[Nearholmer]

Probably a bit of ‘positioning’ going on too, with potential bidders/contractors trying to talk the Ts & Cs as far in their favour as they can.

[Pandora]

Announcement of the TFL funding package from February 2022 to June 2022

 

https://tfl.gov.uk/info-for/media/press-releases/2022/february/tfl-statement---tfl-funding-update-25th-februa

 

The funding agreement  requires TFL  to submit  a plan to increase revenue or cut costs amounting to £400 million

Edited April 10, 2022 by Pandora

[corneliuslundie]

But this was before the impact of the Ukraine war was fully known. The increases in all costs since then and the current inflation rate are certain to lead to a rethink being needed, though whether the Government will want to do that I don't know. If there is not TfL will be in big trouble within a very short time.

Jonathan  

Edited April 10, 2022 by corneliuslundie
typo

[Pandora]

Today, Wednesday 3rd August,  a deadline to accept a £3.6 bn  package from the Govt to fund a shortfall  in the Tfl  budget for the next couple of years has passed without acceptance by Tfl.

Reporting of the reasons for Tfl not accepting the package are far from clear.

Has anyone  found  the objections  given by  Tfl to not accept the package?

Edited August 3, 2022 by Pandora

[phil-b259]

1 hour ago, Pandora said:

Today, Wednesday 3rd August,  a deadline to accept a £3.6 bn  package from the Govt to fund a shortfall  in the Tfl  budget for the next couple of years has passed without acceptance by Tfl.

Reporting of the reasons for Tfl not accepting the package are far from clear.

Has anyone  found  the objections  given by  Tfl to not accept the package?

 

TfL are unlikely to conduct detailed negotiations with the Westminster government through the medium of the press!

 

Sure both sides don't mind a bit of mud slinging to bolster their public persona but neither are going to be publishing warts and all justifications for every single move they make.

 

However its pretty obvious that the Westminster Government are pushing for reforms TfL know they cannot possibly deliver in terms of staff pensions, perks and pay due to union resistance - and I suspect thats why TfL have been unable to sign up to the deal the Westminster Government are offering.

 

If the Government are truly serious about getting TfL to ram through their agenda (which the DfT are trying to ram through the rest of the national rail network) then it will be necessary to throw TfL a bone by covering their losses on strike days - just as the operators of trains on the national network get paid compensation to cover the lack of revenue on strike days....

[Pandora]

The first  sticking point I can think of is the Tfl over-60's Oystercard,  giving Londoners free travel on buses , tubes, trains from age of 60 years to state pension age.  I think the Govt will be challenging  Tfl over  the potential for revenue if the scheme is temporarily modified such as  an annual  capping limit for free travel.   I am quite  certain the Minister raised objections to the scheme in previous funding talks.

Edited August 4, 2022 by Pandora

[DY444]

9 hours ago, Pandora said:

The first  sticking point I can think of is the Tfl over-60's Oystercard,  giving Londoners free travel on buses , tubes, trains from age of 60 years to state pension age.  I think the Govt will be challenging  Tfl over  the potential for revenue if the scheme is temporarily modified such as  an annual  capping limit for free travel.   I am quite  certain the Minister raised objections to the scheme in previous funding talks.

 

Adding an annual cap will take time and money because at present Freedom passes are treated by the back office system like Oyster travel cards.  Travel cards have no requirement to touch in and out within the covered zones and thus no concept of a charging implication for incomplete journeys within those zones.  The back office systems will have to be modified to change that for Freedom passes and convert them into some sort of pre-topped up PAYG equivalent.  History suggests changes to the Oyster back office system don't happen in a hurry and any putative revenue gain will be offset initially by the cost of such a change.

 

It's also likely "the minister" will have had an ear bashing from the London Tory group who oppose phasing it out because they fear (with some justification) an electoral backlash in the outer suburbs.  My view has always been that the revenue generated by dumping it will be far lower than the Government thinks and the political cost far higher especially in the current economic climate.  As such it seems a very strange thing to pick a big fight over.  If it does get withdrawn then the least damaging way to do it is to let existing pass holders keep them and close the scheme to new applicants.  However we'll see what happens.     

[4630]

17 hours ago, Pandora said:

Today, Wednesday 3rd August,  a deadline to accept a £3.6 bn  package from the Govt to fund a shortfall  in the Tfl  budget for the next couple of years has passed without acceptance by Tfl.

Reporting of the reasons for Tfl not accepting the package are far from clear.

Has anyone  found  the objections  given by  Tfl to not accept the package?

 

Unsurprisingly the press statement put out by TfL, I guess you've already seen it or the quotes from it repeated in the media, doesn't add much detail to what's already in the public domain.

 

The press statement is here for anyone interested.

Edited August 4, 2022 by 4630

[MidlandRed]

10 hours ago, Pandora said:

The first  sticking point I can think of is the Tfl over-60's Oystercard,  giving Londoners free travel on buses , tubes, trains from age of 60 years to state pension age.  I think the Govt will be challenging  Tfl over  the potential for revenue if the scheme is temporarily modified such as  an annual  capping limit for free travel.   I am quite  certain the Minister raised objections to the scheme in previous funding talks.

No doubt the Mayor would get the blame via the press for such a politically explosive action (removing elements of free travel for the elderly), paving the way for a Tory mayor. Surely Grant Shapps wouldn’t be playing politics here…………. 🤣 he comes over as a very ill informed SoS (in his grossly inaccurate commentary on the rail disputes) - either that or he’s incompetent or a maybe rabid politician. 

 

One wonders, cynically whether the inherited cost of maintaining the 1000 special Boris buses ad infinitum or until they’re worn out or thrown away (TfL has to pay for this as no operator in their right minds would underwrite the costs at the time) is a drain on resources - they are also having to fund refurbishment as unlike most buses in London TfL owns them.

 

The normal model is the operator provides and maintains the buses as part of the contract for the route (s) - as the NBFL are ‘bespoke buses’, it’s very likely they’re more expensive to maintain (three sets of doors, two staircases, greater length etc etc for starters). 

Edited August 4, 2022 by MidlandRed

[surfsup]

I suspect it is in part down to the actions of the DfT than anything else, IanVisits mentioned this yesterday in an article about the temporary funding package expiring: 

 

Quote

TfL says that discussions with the Department for Transport (DfT) in relation to their future funding requirements are still ongoing and that it will provide an update in due course.

DfT has provided TfL with a draft proposal for a Long Term Funding Settlement but received it later than desired and is studying the terms of the offer being put to them.

https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/articles/tfls-funding-package-with-the-government-has-expired-56514/

 

So potentially the DfT has it's wishes wants and desires, gives TfL incredibly short notice to study the documents and TfL has, rightly, responded by not accepting it until they know what they are signing themselves up for. 

Edited August 4, 2022 by surfsup

[Pandora]

2 hours ago, DY444 said:

 

Adding an annual cap will take time and money because at present Freedom passes are treated by the back office system like Oyster travel cards.  Travel cards have no requirement to touch in and out within the covered zones and thus no concept of a charging implication for incomplete journeys within those zones.  The back office systems will have to be modified to change that for Freedom passes and convert them into some sort of pre-topped up PAYG equivalent.  History suggests changes to the Oyster back office system don't happen in a hurry and any putative revenue gain will be offset initially by the cost of such a change.

 

It's also likely "the minister" will have had an ear bashing from the London Tory group who oppose phasing it out because they fear (with some justification) an electoral backlash in the outer suburbs.  My view has always been that the revenue generated by dumping it will be far lower than the Government thinks and the political cost far higher especially in the current economic climate.  As such it seems a very strange thing to pick a big fight over.  If it does get withdrawn then the least damaging way to do it is to let existing pass holders keep them and close the scheme to new applicants.  However we'll see what happens.     

The Freedom Pass is issued at State Pension age (66 for me, I have my pass)  My speculation is the TFL  Over-60s  Oyster Card is at risk, the card is valid from the recipients 60th  birthday and  expires at state pension age, therefore Oystercard  current for 6 years until the issue of a Freedom Pass, the Freedom Pass  extends the  free travel utility over and above  an  over-60s  Oystercard by  offering   ECNTS bus travel in England.  The Pensioner's Freedom Pass I believe is safe, but I am anticipating significant changes to the Over-60s Oystercard. Both Passes have a journey history log which is readable by the card holder from most TFL station ticket machines,  could the journey history log  be used by the system  as a  tally count and to set a maximum figure for free travel  journeys made with the Oystercard  in say a year or a month of usage?

Edited August 4, 2022 by Pandora

[DY444]

59 minutes ago, Pandora said:

The Freedom Pass is issued at State Pension age (66 for me, I have my pass)  My speculation is the TFL  Over-60s  Oyster Card is at risk, the card is valid from the recipients 60th  birthday and  expires at state pension age, therefore Oystercard  current for 6 years until the issue of a Freedom Pass, the Freedom Pass  extends the  free travel utility over and above  an  over-60s  Oystercard by  offering   ECNTS bus travel in England.  The Pensioner's Freedom Pass I believe is safe, but I am anticipating significant changes to the Over-60s Oystercard. Both Passes have a journey history log which is readable by the card holder from most TFL station ticket machines,  could the journey history log  be used by the system  as a  tally count and to set a maximum figure for free travel  journeys made with the Oystercard  in say a year or a month of usage?

 

Yes my mistake - I meant the 60+ photocard.  There's great resistance in London to any changes to that.

 

The 60+ card in the back office system is treated like a travel card in that  there are no charging implications for a failure to touch in and/or out.  The current journey history is thus on a best endeavours basis using whatever touches happen to be made.  To place a cap on the 60+ card would require changes to that both in terms of conditions of use making touches in and out compulsory, to handle penalty fares for failure to touch in or out, and to monitor, enforce and allow the user to see the status of the cap.  There may also need to be provision for a user to add PAYG to the card to handle the situation where the cap has been exceeded.  History suggests changes to the Oyster back office systems are never quick so I don't see any such scheme being introduced in a hurry even if TfL accept it (which I don't think they will without a big fight).   

Edited August 4, 2022 by DY444

[stewartingram]

1 hour ago, Pandora said:

The Freedom Pass is issued at State Pension age (66 for me, I have my pass)  My speculation is the TFL  Over-60s  Oyster Card is at risk, the card is valid from the recipients 60th  birthday and  expires at state pension age, therefore Oystercard  current for 6 years until the issue of a Freedom Pass, the Freedom Pass  extends the  free travel utility over and above  an  over-60s  Oystercard by  offering   ECNTS bus travel in England.  The Pensioner's Freedom Pass I believe is safe, but I am anticipating significant changes to the Over-60s Oystercard. Both Passes have a journey history log which is readable by the card holder from most TFL station ticket machines,  could the journey history log  be used by the system  as a  tally count and to set a maximum figure for free travel  journeys made with the Oystercard  in say a year or a month of usage?

I am not a London resident, but have the bus pass (ie the national one) issued by Cambs CC. I've been retired now for over 3 years (age 73), but whilst I was working in London I used my bus pass a lot. I was a contractor for another firm, working on the Tube, and had a staff pass/free Oyster card for tube travel (not sure if it was valid on buses, but I'll come to that). I started using the bus initially to & from KGX & the office (just as quick, less crowded et), and this spread to my work journeys more and more. It surprised me with its use that the bus pass was a) available 24/7/365 (locally I have to wait until 0930); b) I never once tapped the pass on the reader as the drivers just nodded me past - so how did TfL know that I travelled, and got the payment for it from Govt?

On occasion we had jobs when the line was closed with officially an alternative bus route. My work partner was refused entry to the bus with the staff Oyster (wrongly), whilst I could show my bus pass. (We actually just used the following bus instead). Also at other times he used the bus, and the driver pulled out a sheet, to check the validity of the staff pass and then let him on (my mate couldn't see for sure that it was valid). Seems at the sharp end rules were not closely followed, one wonders how much this costs Tfl in the end?

[corneliuslundie]

Welcome to Wales.

Here the bus pass for the over 60s is available for travel on all buses in the Principality (even the long distance ones such as Newtown to Cardiff) or on journeys which start and have a significant length in Wales but start or end in England. But more than once in Shrewsbury when I have used the local bus the driver has not taken my money because I have a Welsh pass - even though he should. And the card readers on most routes =do not record the destination. It can get complicated as some routes dodge in and out of England.  The passes are also available during the winter on the Cambrian Coast line (not the line from Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth. The only thing they are not valid on is the coach to London.

Why should Londoners get anything worse?

Jonathan

[Pandora]

Pandemic, or, No Pandemic:

TFL:   Future Passenger Revenue as predicted by TFL in their 2019 Business Plan   

Passenger revenue (figures from TFL BP of 2019):       2020/21 £5.1bn,    2021/22  £5.4bn,      2022/23  £5.8bn,        2023/24  £6.5bn.

 

Predictions for 2023/24 of £6.5bn from 2020/21 of £5.1bn (also a  prediction) represents 27% growth in revenue in  just 3 years.

 

Growth of 27% sounds optimistic to me,  even if the pandemic had never happened.

 

Even  without the pandemic,  would TFL  have achieved 27% growth in revenue, and if not,  would TFL have requested  extraordinary Govt funding?

 

 

 

Edited August 11, 2022 by Pandora

[corneliuslundie]

Presumably the original business plan was written on the basis of Crossrail revenue starting and increasing when expected.  

Any predictions made two years later would have been completely different.

Jonathan

[andyman7]

On 04/08/2022 at 18:42, stewartingram said:

I am not a London resident, but have the bus pass (ie the national one) issued by Cambs CC. I've been retired now for over 3 years (age 73), but whilst I was working in London I used my bus pass a lot. I was a contractor for another firm, working on the Tube, and had a staff pass/free Oyster card for tube travel (not sure if it was valid on buses, but I'll come to that). I started using the bus initially to & from KGX & the office (just as quick, less crowded et), and this spread to my work journeys more and more. It surprised me with its use that the bus pass was a) available 24/7/365 (locally I have to wait until 0930); b) I never once tapped the pass on the reader as the drivers just nodded me past - so how did TfL know that I travelled, and got the payment for it from Govt?

On occasion we had jobs when the line was closed with officially an alternative bus route. My work partner was refused entry to the bus with the staff Oyster (wrongly), whilst I could show my bus pass. (We actually just used the following bus instead). Also at other times he used the bus, and the driver pulled out a sheet, to check the validity of the staff pass and then let him on (my mate couldn't see for sure that it was valid). Seems at the sharp end rules were not closely followed, one wonders how much this costs Tfl in the end?

None of the London schemes (over 60, Freedom Pass etc) rely on touching in to generate a payment. The data overall does help monitor take-up used to help calculate the overall 'value' of the scheme but any journeys you took in London would have already been charged for in terms of a block payment.

It's been quite noticeable on a recent trip to Tyneside how much more faffing about there is in bus boarding with all the various schemes and operators needing to ensure each journey is recorded. In London, everything is run via TfL's back office processes and they take revenue risk so the drivers essentially only want to hear a bleep, and if you are a senior or a under 18 they aren't massively bothered about that as they know that you are entitled to free travel of some sort.

Edited August 11, 2022 by andyman7

[Pandora]

Speculation  in the press suggests TFL will  not agree to the recent Grant Shapps  funding package and TFL will give soon declare a S114  Notice placing TFL under strict control of spending

 

A sample article:

 

https://www.railtech.com/policy/2022/08/16/transport-for-london-could-be-nationalised/?gdpr=accept

Edited August 16, 2022 by Pandora

[corneliuslundie]

And Westminster will not wish to take decisions regarding service cuts which will enrage the voters in London so will have to foot the bill for the continuing losses which it cannot stop.

Obviously no Crossrail 2 etc, but TBH they were unlikely anyway, regardless of future demand.

And that is the nub of the problem. It will probably be another decade before we see the long term affects of Covid in public transport.

Jonathan

 

[phil-b259]

32 minutes ago, corneliuslundie said:

And Westminster will not wish to take decisions regarding service cuts which will enrage the voters in London

 

 

 

Ahh, but a Conservative Westminster will be very quick to pin the blame cuts on a profligate Labour mayor running scared of the trade unions. Yes Westminster running TfL won't save that much in the long run but in politics public perception seems to count far more than facts.

 

'If only you had elected a Conservative Mayor last time because they would have handled things much better' (even if thats total rubbish) will be the mood music to voters in the Capital.

 

There is of course a risk that if the pain lasts too long it might affect the long term electoral potential of the Conservatives - but with the next Mayoral election some distance away there is scope for the effects on the ballot box to be minimised the next time Londoners go to the polls

[4630]

All part of the same TfL/DfT issue, of course.

 

London transport fares could rise by up to 14% in 2023

[Pandora]

A meeting was held yesterday, seemingly "make or break".,  between Minister  Shapps and Major Khan over the short-term funding needs  of TFL.

Reports are TFL have accepted the package on the table,  a package said to be £600 million short of the  Mayor Khan budget.

I cannot find the details of the package but reports are anticipating cuts to TFL services and rises in fares.

TFL continue to hold the keys, they have not taken the road  of a S114 notice, preferring to be in control  over handing over the reins to the Minister.

Edited August 31, 2022 by Pandora