Hornby announce TT:120

[frobisher]

47 minutes ago, JohnR said:

I'm not sure Heljans decision was completely about duplication. They had only decided to go for the 31 a couple of months ago. Why did they not switch to producing, say a class 25? It would surely be just as popular as a 31, and they have the research/CAD. It's also something that Hornby hadn't announced.

 

A cynic might say that perhaps a 25 would suddenly appear in Hornby's plans somewhere before Phase 9... 

 

 

[britishcolumbian]

12 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

Why would they even want to risk a  similar scenario in "their" new scale? My guess is, the longer Hornby has TT:120 to itself, the better they'll like it.

If they weren't willing to take that risk, they'd never have started in a scale that's already established elsewhere in the world, they'd have gone with something entirely new like 1:133 on 10.75 mm track.

 

I imagine Hornby plan on this being successful... and if they are as successful as they seem to intend to be, that will invariably attract attention from other manufacturers, particularly those already engaged in the scale... and as I mentioned, Tillig, who view the scale as their own turf: when Roco first entered the picture, Tillig eventually managed to force them out again; they returned only after Piko and Kuehn successfully entered. When Kuehn came onto the scene, they announced several items, some of which were duplicates of existing Tillig products; some of what wasn't, Tillig then announced their own versions. Piko's angle was to enter the scale by offering good models at a crazy low price, €90 for their Taurus for example; once they'd established themselves in the scale, they started increasing their own prices. As markets started growing outside of Germany, Tillig started producing for those markets as well, wanting a piece of the TT pie in those places, too... so if Hornby do take this to a stage where five years from now they're still announcing new product, I cannot see Tillig not wanting a chunk of the British market for themselves.

 

Edit to add: and then there's the possibility of smaller producers like MTB who might go for models of British types that are in use on the Continent in Hungary and Poland for example (both of which are markets they produce for), for which they'd have an existing market and British liveries would be icing...

Edited October 30, 2022 by britishcolumbian

[Delta_Who]

18 minutes ago, boxbrownie said:

I just wanted to know if Heljan actually stated they had used that statement? Because it would seem a bit bold considering they had only just shown their intentions and a few CADs?

 

For my own interest I hope TT-120 is a success and more manufacturers down the line join in the fray, Hornby have been bold for an opening launch in a new scale in the U.K., but I can certainly understand the Heljan reluctance and withdrawing models which would be duplicates, PECO announced their TT track quite a while before (I believe) Hornby of course but I have no doubt whatsoever that both companies knew or even collaborated (using the word lightly) before we knew anything about it.

 

Fair enough. Heljan themselves did not say so.

[Delta_Who]

25 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

 

That won't gain your perspective much respect.

 

Maybe but... that's just the reality of things... reactionary comments. But I'm sure some people will take a step back, take a deep breathe, and enjoy this new ride (however long or short).

[AY Mod]

3 minutes ago, Delta_Who said:

that's just the reality of things

 

It may be your 'reality' but like other posts it's just an opinion and of no greater value than anyone else's.

[Dunsignalling]

1 minute ago, britishcolumbian said:

If they weren't willing to take that risk, they'd never have started in a scale that's already established elsewhere in the world, they'd have gone with something entirely new like 1:133 on 10.75 mm track.

 

I imagine Hornby plan on this being successful... and if they are as successful as they seem to intend to be, that will invariably attract attention from other manufacturers, particularly those already engaged in the scale... and as I mentioned, Tillig, who view the scale as their own turf: when Roco first entered the picture, Tillig eventually managed to force them out again; they returned only after Piko and Kuehn successfully entered. When Kuehn came onto the scene, they announced several items, some of which were duplicates of existing Tillig products; some of what wasn't, Tillig then announced their own versions. Piko's angle was to enter the scale by offering good models at a crazy low price, €90 for their Taurus for example; once they'd established themselves in the scale, they started increasing their own prices. As markets started growing outside of Germany, Tillig started producing for those markets as well, wanting a piece of the TT pie in those places, too... so if Hornby do take this to a stage where five years from now they're still announcing new product, I cannot see Tillig not wanting a chunk of the British market for themselves.

As OO has been demonstrating for decades, what goes on in the rest of the world is largely irrelevant to the market for British outline r-t-r.

 

Hornby is a mass-market model business and TT:120 will have to fit into that, and achieve "critical mass" within a budgeted  timescale if they are to persevere with it.

 

Their definitions of how big and how soon those criteria may be will obviously be highly confidential, but they will undoubtedly have been laid down in advance of the finance being agreed.

 

British N has around 10% of the UK r-t-r market and I think Hornby will want/need TT:120 to get half way to that figure within 3-5 years.

 

During that time they will also be attempting to regain a competitive position in OO, but the future of either scale beyond that is not yet writ.

 

John

[britishcolumbian]

10 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

As OO has been demonstrating for decades, what goes on in the rest of the world is largely irrelevant to the market for British outline r-t-r.

By moving into a global scale, they've made this distinction irrelevant.

[Dunsignalling]

18 minutes ago, britishcolumbian said:

By moving into a global scale, they've made this distinction irrelevant.

Only if it sells well enough to induce a non-UK brand to start offering British outline models.

 

Otherwise, the UK model railway scene will remain as parochial as it's always been.

 

John

Edited October 30, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[Les1952]

8 hours ago, jjb1970 said:

 

At the moment it's a great time to be into Japanese trains as the JPY has been performing like the GBP and many other currencies, plummeting. Because the SGD has performed reasonably well Japanese trains are a bit of a bargain for me now. I just got a Kato 12 car Series 100 Grand Hikari train (2 x 6 car book sets) for S$220 delivered, which is about £134. And it is a superb model. A Kato DF200 diesel electric was S$67 delivered (about £41), again it is superb and similar British N gauge locomotives seem to be in the range £100-150. I know it's not a very meaningful comparison as I am in Singapore, shipping from Japan to Singapore is very reasonable and they don't have 20% VAT here but Japanese models are a complete steal for me. I'm going to Tokyo for a trip soon and I'm hoping to visit some model shops. 

The difference isn't in quality as the quality of Japanese N is superb (in fact I still consider Kato the benchmark for mechanisms). Presentation is superb, finish impeccable and the way they package multiple unit trains to allow you to get complete trains is great. They are able to take advantage of scale. Model shops are still common in Japan, it's still common to see department stores with excellent model railway departments and you still see a lot of families and young people in these shops.

 

I gave up on modelling with anything Japanese when all of a sudden I couldn't get hold of Tomix track to build Bregenbach- Japan just about stopped exporting due to Covid.  I ended up with Fleischmann track- not as good, and will use Peco mainly in future.  As to Japanese trains, too many multiple units.

 

Les

 

[britishcolumbian]

10 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

Only if it sell well enough to induce a non-UK brand to start offering British outline models.

 

Otherwise, the UK model railway scene will remain as parochial as it's always been.

 

John

 That's pretty much what I said, yeah - if in five years Hornby are still announcing new product, a continental producer will almost certainly join in. As I've mentioned, Tillig do very strongly see TT as belonging to them, to the extent that even when a company much larger than themselves, Roco, entered the scale, Tillig took them on - and won (at least, they won Round One). If Hornby achieve even a moderate level of success, I can't see Tillig not barging into the British market.

[Tartaruga]

1 hour ago, britishcolumbian said:

British 1:120 is here to stay. Even if only as a thing as niche as North American 1:120 is, it won't be going away anymore... and if Hornby do release just what they've already announced and nothing more, it will be rather less niche than NorAm TT is. This much is as certain as poison is toxic.

 

As for Heljan, who knows. That "TT:FN" sounded like the opposite of permanence... but with the way they handled this situation, even if they were to return I'd be sceptical of any announcement until it's actually available to buy. Let them leave, it's not like they're the only other model railway manufacturer in the world. If Hornby do well enough, I could even see Tillig jumping into the British market, on the basis of them seeing 1:120 as *their* domain.

If Hornby releases everything in their catalogue there will be more available than 3mm TT devotees have had to play with from the Triang range since the 60's so as you say it is here to stay in some capacity.

I think the market would proabably have been more favourable if they had managed to realease their sets before Covid hit ( In the way that my Dad has already bought his youngest grandchild a OO set and why would we now buy another set in a different scale).

And if it doesn't work for Hornby Tillig would still have a domain to enter to claim. One mistake I think Hornby have made is not produce the Kato style track for people who can't have permanent layouts which is where Tillig could use theirs to claim an entry.

Added to which if in the unlikely situation no other company gets involved in 1:120 somebody could do as Revolution did in N and crowdfund a pendolino in TT @Revolution Ben 😉

Edited October 30, 2022 by Tartaruga

[Dunsignalling]

1 minute ago, britishcolumbian said:

 That's pretty much what I said, yeah - if in five years Hornby are still announcing new product, a continental producer will almost certainly join in. As I've mentioned, Tillig do very strongly see TT as belonging to them, to the extent that even when a company much larger than themselves, Roco, entered the scale, Tillig took them on - and won (at least, they won Round One). If Hornby achieve even a moderate level of success, I can't see Tillig not barging into the British market.

My guess is that ten years from now, always supposing Hornby get enough people interested for a residual market to exist after they pull out, Hatton's will be trying to flog the leftovers, just as they did with Tri-ang TT.

 

John

[britishcolumbian]

1 minute ago, Tartaruga said:

And if it doesn't work for Hornby Tillig would still have a domain to enter to claim. One mistake I think Hornby have made is not produce the Kato style track for people who can't have permanent layouts which is where Tillig could use theirs to claim an entry.

Added to which if in the unlikely situation no other company gets involved in 1:120 somebody could do as Revolution did in N and crowdfund a pendolino in TT  "@Revolution Ben"

And if even that fails, given that a British market (however small) has been established already, it'll give Continental producers like MTB or Piko extra impetus to produce at least those British types that run on Continental rails - with the Continental markets being the main target, and a short one-off batch of a British livery being pure gravy. So those types, at least, I'm fairly confident will appear now at some point in 1:120, even if on the whole British 1:120 fails to take a significant (10%) share of the market in the UK.

[britishcolumbian]

2 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

My guess is that ten years from now, always supposing Hornby get enough people interested for a residual market to exist after they pull out, Hatton's will be trying to flog the leftovers, just as they did with Tri-ang TT.

 

John

I'm willing to put a fiver on that. If it survives five years, it's here to stay - *regardless of how niche*. We had literally nobody but guys in their garages supporting NorAm TT for decades, and it still exists, and slowly slowly is getting new stuff produced. The British cat is out of the bag and it won't be put back in anymore. I know for my part I intend to see my project through, even if it'll take many years... so that's at least one of us who'll keep it going.

[Dunsignalling]

2 minutes ago, britishcolumbian said:

And if even that fails, given that a British market (however small) has been established already, it'll give Continental producers like MTB or Piko extra impetus to produce at least those British types that run on Continental rails - with the Continental markets being the main target, and a short one-off batch of a British livery being pure gravy. So those types, at least, I'm fairly confident will appear now at some point in 1:120, even if on the whole British 1:120 fails to take a significant (10%) share of the market in the UK.

10% of the market is what it's taken N gauge over half a century to attaiin so don't hold your breath.

[Dunsignalling]

1 minute ago, britishcolumbian said:

I'm willing to put a fiver on that. If it survives five years, it's here to stay - *regardless of how niche*. We had literally nobody but guys in their garages supporting NorAm TT for decades, and it still exists, and slowly slowly is getting new stuff produced. The British cat is out of the bag and it won't be put back in anymore. I know for my part I intend to see my project through, even if it'll take many years... so that's at least one of us who'll keep it going.

That wouldn't be anything like sufficient to keep Hornby on board though, so it would just join all the other British iterations of TT as another DIY scale.

 

[britishcolumbian]

Just now, Dunsignalling said:

10% of the market is what it's taken N gauge over half a century to attaiin so don't hold your breath.

I think you may have missed the point I was making in that post... even if on the whole British 1:120 fails to take a significant (10%) share of the market in the UK I'm confident that the British types operational on the Continent will be released at some point in the future now, even if primarily aimed at the Continental market.

 

I can tell that you are *really* desperate to see this fail, but rest assured, it's here to stay, even if small.

[Les1952]

One thing did strike me at Gaydon was the percentage of people going in to look at TT120 with children in tow seemed to be a fair bit higher than the percentage of this category of visitor to the show as a whole.

 

Cantankerous old gits like me seemed very much in the minority.   

 

Are a lot of the negative comments on here a reflection that RMWebbers in general aren't the target audience for this scale?  Is the RMWeb cohort failing to cope with it being aimed at someone else?.

 

I've just looked on the Gaugemaster website, and Roco has brought out a rather nice model of the BR44 2-10-0.  This is also available with DCC Sound- and whilst it would absorb the proceeds of selling maybe 4 of Croft Spa's big engines it gives me a good deal of food for thought.

 

Meanwhile, sourcing 750mm wide lightweight boards rather than 600mm for the next layout.....

 

Les

Edited October 30, 2022 by Les1952
missing a ?

[Dunsignalling]

2 minutes ago, britishcolumbian said:

I think you may have missed the point I was making in that post... even if on the whole British 1:120 fails to take a significant (10%) share of the market in the UK I'm confident that the British types operational on the Continent will be released at some point in the future now, even if primarily aimed at the Continental market.

 

I can tell that you are *really* desperate to see this fail, but rest assured, it's here to stay, even if small.

I'm not but if there turn out only to be peanuts to be made from it, you won't see Hornby for their dust.

Edited October 30, 2022 by Dunsignalling

[britishcolumbian]

2 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

That wouldn't be anything like sufficient to keep Hornby on board though, so it would just join all the other British iterations of TT as another DIY scale.

 

Now you're shifting the goalposts...

[britishcolumbian]

1 minute ago, Dunsignalling said:

I'm not but if there turn out only to be peanuts to be made from it, you won't see Hornby for the dust.

I'm still up for putting a fiver on it, and CAD to GBP at that.

[spamcan61]

2 minutes ago, Les1952 said:

 

Are a lot of the negative comments on here a reflection that RMWebbers in general aren't the target audience for this scale?  Is the RMWeb cohort failing to cope with it being aimed at someone else?.

 

 

Yes, as SK points out in the WoR interview somewhere in this thread, it's not aimed at people prepared to pay 200 quid for a loco.

[Dunsignalling]

Just now, britishcolumbian said:

Now you're shifting the goalposts...

Not really, Hornby will have set the location of those and TT:120 will have to satisfy their sales targets, not my cynicism or your unbounded faith.

[Dunsignalling]

2 minutes ago, britishcolumbian said:

I'm still up for putting a fiver on it, and CAD to GBP at that.

The only bet I can see is between Hatton's and the electrical recycling sector.

[Dunsignalling]

1 hour ago, Les1952 said:

One thing did strike me at Gaydon was the percentage of people going in to look at TT120 with children in tow seemed to be a fair bit higher than the percentage of this category of visitor to the show as a whole.

 

Cantankerous old gits like me seemed very much in the minority.   

 

Are a lot of the negative comments on here a reflection that RMWebbers in general aren't the target audience for this scale?  Is the RMWeb cohort failing to cope with it being aimed at someone else?.

 

I've been comparing what I've spent/am expecting to spend with others vs what I'll be spending with Hornby on my core interests this year and next. Hornby don't account for even 10% of the total. If I'm at all typical, it explains why Hornby see a need to spread their wings into something other than OO.

 

Now I have an air-smoothed MN (I'd buy more if they did the right variations) and the Maunsell dining saloons, Hornby aren't aiming much at me, whatever the scale. Consequently, I should be able to afford quite a long banana train from Accurascale and probably another Siphon!

 

I bought a couple of small "side interest" Hornby locos which took up a bit of the slack, but only because they were at good discounts, and I had a few quid to spare at the right time. 😀

 

I wish Hornby lots of luck with this venture, whoever it's aimed at, but I fear that may not be enough, with serious impacts on the entire group if it does badly.  

 

John

 

 

Edited October 30, 2022 by Dunsignalling