Frustration - so much so often.

[Andy Y]

Remember the old board game? Just when you think you're winning someone comes along and knocks you back.

 

I had a few alarm bells ringing myself during last week knowing that Baby Deltics, 22s, Desiros, 3Fs, Derby Lightweights, latest Well Tanks, Midland Compounds and probably more (I've only listed locos for start!) were about to his the modellers' wallets within a matter of days of each other (and more to come over the next week or so) geared up to meet Warley, Christmas and other demands such as meeting the Model of the Year deadline dates. The concern is there from potential buyers whilst reading comments along the lines of "I can't afford everything". Of course none of us want or need everything that comes along, particularly as soon as its released but we can all see that modellers are having to make choices rather than having everything they'd like. Somewhere that has an impact and one of those impacts is upon the retailer.

 

In many cases retailers have had to make forecasts on how many of which product they order many months ahead and order accordingly. Currently many retailers are seeing a deluge of stock coming through their doors and that stock will need to be paid for smartish. If we're having to make a choice of 'this or that' it will mean the one we didn't choose sits awaiting a buyer but it'll still need paying for whilst it awaits its new home.

 

It's also worth considering that many retailers will have had a leaner period in the run up to this modellers' madness as there's either been less stock coming through from manufacturers or we, as customers, have been holding back awaiting releases so, quite simply they haven't got as much cash at bank as they'd like, or even need, to get through this. I've heard stories of retailers that are up against their trading limits with manufacturers already through keeping the shelves stocked with a normal flow of run of the mill slower moving items and are in a position where they simply cannot afford to stock all of the releases that are coming through. This means orders from retailers either being cancelled or delayed until they can be afforded which creates a bit of a vicious circle which starts the next problem off.

 

If stock can't be shifted eventually it becomes discounted and I know some retailers are also concerned when a manufacturer starts to clear stock through their own channels (or through clearance offers to other retailers or channels) to reduce their own stock-holding and bring in the revenue which may not have arrived because of the scenarios in the previous paragraph. The retailer who did buy in the run of the mill slower moving items is now faced with stock that they find difficult to shift because AN Other is selling it at substantially lower prices.

 

It would be simplistic to say that we're looking at over-production which ultimately suppresses prices and margins but there is an imbalance which could maybe be addressed by spacing out releases to help the retailers and the end buyer. The die-cast bus market largely collapsed through over-production and heed should be paid to those events.

 

What will happen is that retailers will have reduced confidence in their next round of ordering which directly impacts upon the manufacturer. Five years ago we would not have foreseen the breadth of commissioned modellers that are being produced so that a commissioning retailer can be in greater control of their cash flow and margins around a specific model. Good luck to all that do as they are investing in their futures but meanwhile they will spend less and their customers will spend less on all of the other increasing number of releases. It's a complex subject and this post barely scratches the surface but it is an equation that we all need to considerate and cautious of.

 

The price of having so much so often is that there will be casualties along the way. Until HM Government gives grants to the customer to buy anything and everything we want there needs to be some thought about this within the upper circles of the hobby.

 

We would be in a poorer position with higher pricing if the retail market was monopolised by too few traders of course.

 

A personal but radical view would be to ask the manufacturers not to produce and market their poorest quality items (or even announce something a new product that should have been strangled at birth 30 years ago) even though they may be considered a long paid for cash cow or at least to ask the retailers to turn their back on the weakest products and stock what's good and not just because it's a number in a catalogue.

 

(Specific references to the innocent, the guilty and the unwitting have not been included)

[spamcan61]

 

A personal but radical view would be to ask the manufacturers not to produce and market their poorest quality items (or even announce something a new product that should have been strangled at birth 30 years ago) even though they may be considered a long paid for cash cow or at least to ask the retailers to turn their back on the weakest products and stock what's good and not just because it's a number in a catalogue.

 

(Specific references to the innocent, the guilty and the unwitting have not been included)

 

A few issues that come to mind:-

 

There's no universal agreement on what makes a 'good' or 'quality' model, some see what they buy as a starting point for a personalised model, some want to just put it on the track, some want to stick it on a shelf and admire it. Whilst it might well be possible to produce a product that's 100% acceptable to all camps it's unlikely to represent best value to any one camp.

 

The long paid for cash cows fund the new developments, they're a necessary evil IMHO. Nobody is forced to buy them, although I acknowledge that a buyer's perception of a particular brand will be set by their first purchase - e.g. VEP versus Gresley Suburbans.

 

From a retailer standpoint then I'd say those retailers that know their customer base best stand the best chance of weathering financial storms, for sure it can't be easy predicting in advance what will sell and what won't. A situation that isn't helped when one of your major suppliers decides to get serious about increasing their own web based sales:-/

 

For sure this 'ground rush' of new releases coming up to (every) Christmas is annoying for just about the whole supply chain, it makes life more difficult for customers, retailers and manufacturers, yet it seems nobody can break the cycle.

[34theletterbetweenB&D]

The 'surge' of the desireable new items landing in the run up to Christmas, (or even worse arriving just after Christmas when most customers are suffering a walletectomy) is a concern, and has been for some years. If there really is oversupply, then it is going to get tested to the limit next year. Pairs of partly or wholly newly tooled LMS twins, A4s, B1s, class 52s, joining the fray alongside an unprecedented expansion of choice in the product ranges. Could go one of two ways. Customer base can still find the money for their hobby, and excited by the expanding possibilities make the purchases. Customer base hamstrung by economic circumstance outwith their control, want to purchase, but literally don't have the cash. If I knew which way this one goes I would be getting a pile of wonga from the Treasury for my expert advice!

 

The 'drop poor quality items' from the catalogue strategy is one that appeals. That should help retailers shift at least some older stock as customers jump in for last chance (at least for a while) to buy one.

 

A lot of it though rests with us as customers. It makes a call on honesty: if you wishlisted for it and it has appeared, stick your hand in your pocket if you have the cash and make the transaction. If you don't or cannot, then no complaints when the manufacturers significantly reduce the flow of new items...

[The Stationmaster]

 

A personal but radical view would be to ask the manufacturers not to produce and market their poorest quality items (or even announce something a new product that should have been strangled at birth 30 years ago) even though they may be considered a long paid for cash cow or at least to ask the retailers to turn their back on the weakest products and stock what's good and not just because it's a number in a catalogue.

 

A very good argument that. Apart from the snippet above I do wonder if there is also a slightly different take on it from the buyer's viewpoint which is that we don't normally buy everything - although I admit to a moment of madness with the Well Tank and there is the unplanned (from my perspective) Compound. But that apart all that's arrived for my loco sidings recently is D6331 because it's the one that fits my area of interest; similarly it might not appeal to those who are accruing Baby Deltics. So there is a bit of discretion and selection in the buying market which might help the retailers although it will hardly solve the overall problem you have raised.

 

Now to that snippet above - which advances an interesting concept. But I doubt the manufacturers would play ball especially if they regard their 30 year old tools as a low production cost cash cow for what might well be an unduly highly priced RRP on an item. So the natural process of selection you seek should logically take place with the retailers because they know their market and they know what profit levels they need to stay in business. Great - unless the manufacturer forces them to take a certain level of stock by either money or spread of catalogue and says 'no more of anything for you if you won't play my game'. And there is the other side of the coin, the 'toy shop market' which many model shops have to service in order to survive and develop their customer base and which can mean holding all sorts of poorly priced (at RRP) horrors simply because grandad needs to buy one for little Johnny for his trainset for his birthday etc. I don't exactly know how that latter conundrum can be resolved by the retailer especially when we apply brand names and 'outside the hobby' product perception.

 

So what's the answer? Well part of it lies in diversification - if the retailer is so inclined and has the knowledge to do so (which might not suit all of course) but I think they might still remain in what has traditionally been a very seasonal trade and I think that is where a deeper rethink is needed. We will not and cannot stop manufacturers aiming releases at key market opportunities and at present many of them lie in the last couple of months of the year - exactly as you identified. So why not spread that concentration of 'purchase emphasis' - some specialist shows are already used for model announcements and the likes of those could also become (target) release dates. I realise that might result in concentration of purchases for modellers of specific periods or indeed areas but they would offer a small move away from the year end and it might do the shows good as well.

[D9020 Nimbus]

Surely one of the problems is concentrating so much on 'Warley' rather than spreading releases out during the year. In N gauge, for example, there have been no significant new items from Farish between the last of the B1s in February and the run up to Warley. And within a short space of time 03s, 101s and 4CEPs from Farish. (Dapol have, to be fair, spread their releases out more.) This emphasis, by the manufacturers, on one short period is a form of collective delayed suicide--it will kill off the retailers, and then the manufacturers.

 

Is the influence of the Warley show going to destroy the hobby?

[pointstaken]

Perhaps we need more "Sale or Return" models. If a retailer hasn't shifted a particular model within (say) 2 months, he can have the option of returning it to the manufacturer for a refund. I do not know of course the current arrangements with retailers, but I wonder if sufficient returns would concentrate minds wonderfully, and produce more saleable models.

 

Dennis

[Guest dilbert]

Honour and respect your commitments - manufacturer, vendor and punter alike..

 

Let's start though with financial institutions - like the taxpayer bailed-out banks complaining of being overtaxed and openly commenting about moving HQ to another continent to reduce cost... dilbert

 

edit for typos

[Trains4U]

The points made are very valid - Just to emphasise one point, This month, just one of our suppliers has delivered (or is waiting to deliver) stock that has a value greater than a whole month's trade for us.

 

We cannot pay for it all and have had to make some severe cancellations.

 

When you consider that this is one (albeit a big one) of over 15 suppliers on our books (who are also still delivering stock) you start to understand why this is such a problem.

 

On top of this are the costs of rent, rates, VAT, wages, fuel and advertising that go out every month.

 

We like to think that we understand our customer base, and can anticipate our revenues, and we order accordingly. Had these orders been delivered evenly across the year, we would have been OK, as customers would have purchased these new items as they arrived and cashflow would have been maintained.

 

As it is, several lean months in terms of new products have meant that customer spend on new items has not materialised. Now people don't generally save this money, it will be spent on other items that have to be replaced, or other pursuits, So when the balance of the production arrives all at once in November, those same individuals - who would have bought maybe five, six or seven locos over the year, will now only buy one or two with the money they have. They may, in time, still purchase the locos they want, but in the meantime, they have to be paid for - and there are certainly no 3 year interest free credit arrangements in the trade!

 

I would have thought it far less damaging to business for the manufacturers to store batches of models for a few months in the warehouse for phased release, than release the content of several containers in one go. Sure, some potential customers will be angry and indignant if they found out that "their" model that they had been waiting patiently for had been in Margate or Barwell or Chirk for months already, but I'm sure they'd rather have a model shop from which to buy it , albeit a bit late, than none at all?

 

I don't want to deny new models to my customers, but if you consider that there are over 350 new items released or due from the brands of the main RTR manufacturers between October and December this year, it does become almost too much to bear.

 

It puts us and the manufacturers in a very difficult position - we have to stock entire ranges to remain credible. Previously we would stock (For example) 12 of a new loco release. The customer spend remains the same, so if the range doubles we will only order 6 of each - if the price goes up by 20% we will only order 5 or 4 of each, yet the manufacturers are having to produce the same numbers of each to make the production worthwhile.

 

Ergo, we end up with a glut of stock at the manufacturer that is farmed out in annual sales at much reduced prices - great for the consumer? maybe, but all the shops with existing stock suddenly see their operating margin on those products that are still on stock disappear - or worse go into negative equity.

 

No business can survive like this and the manufacturers really need to consider the harm they are doing to their own business model, by strangling the retailers that serve them.

 

The consequence will be some VERY circumspect ordering during 2012 and a move toward a buy-on-demand model, which will, if multiplied across the trade, seriously hurt the manufacturers.

 

The manuafacturers are listening to the end-customers and have produced a variety of product that you could only have dreamed of only ten years ago, but in doing so, are they actually suffocating the hobby and the lifeblood that is the retailing community?

 

 

(Edited for spelling)

[Edwin_m]

Part of this must be down to the uncertainty about release dates, combined with the batch production system.

 

If everybody knew with certainty what was arriving when in the next (say) six months then both punters and retailers would be able to plan ahead, and perhaps manufacturers could delay some of their products when they see what others are planning to put out (unless that's one of the reasons for unexplained delays already!).

 

Instead we have some release dates on websites, but the dates have been missed so often that most people don't believe them any more. Other models are announced only a short time before release date either due to commercial secrecy (probably spurious) or the desire to hype a product and its scarcity value. In either case someone who really wants that model will quite probably forego spending on a different model - the manufacturer hopes that loss is incurred by a competitor but the retailer who stocks both loses out either way.

[pete_mcfarlane]

This emphasis, by the manufacturers, on one short period is a form of collective delayed suicide--it will kill off the retailers, and then the manufacturers.

There is always going to be a peak in sales around Christmas (abolishing Christmas doesn't work - it was tried in the 1650s). But this move towards releasing masses of new RTR models in the two months leading up to Christmas is pretty much guaranteed to kill off a lot of the smaller retailers who need a constant income stream to survive.

 

This will probably kill off a lot of small local model shops and we'll end up with half a dozen box shifters,. The RTR box collecting brigade will carry on buying the latest releases over the Internet, still moaning about the price and the fact that the model they want isn't out yet.

[PLD]

Is it really the case that this happens every year, or is it that due to a combination of factors other than deliberate manufacturer manipulation (retailer commissions, production delays etc) have caused a co-incidental release of so much in an unusually short time this year?

 

Christmas is a peak time for all retailers so you would naturally expect one or two new releases from each of the big manufacturers around now, which is infact all we do have in their own name, the rest being commissions (Compound, LMS Twins, Well Tanks etc) the timing of which is dictated by those individual commissioners.

 

As for the 'Warley Effect' - yes there are usually headline chasing anouncements, but you also get the same at other big shows such as Ally Pally and specialist shows such as the N Gauge Show and mostly those are future plans not instantly available items...

 

To those who complain they can't afford them all at once - very few products appear in the shops unanounced. Generally you have somewhere between 3 and 30 months warning before they hit the shops; so if you really want it plan ahead - put a few quid aside each month!

Maybe there is scope for mutual support here by the retailers running a savings scheme in the style of the 'Christmas Club schemes' or taking payment in monthly installments between you ordering and the manufacturer delivering? Encourages the purchaser to plan ahead and avoid having to find a big chunk of money in one go, while aiding the retailers cash flow issues...

[spamcan61]

Is it really the case that this happens every year, or is it that due to a combination of factors other than deliberate manufacturer manipulation (retailer commissions, production delays etc) have caused a co-incidental release of so much in an unusually short time this year?

 

 

It's been like this for the last few years at least.

[Mighty]

 

The manuafacturers are listentining to the end-customers and have produced a variety of product that you could only have dreamed of only ten years ago, but in doing so, are they actually suffocating the hobby and the lifeblood that is the retailing community?

 

I sympathise with what Gareth says. In these difficult times, with the average spend per customer must be down as people look to spend on essentials, not necessarily 'luxuries' or hobbies that they could do without. It is not just the quality and price of new models and the 'Christmas rush', but also the fact that companies are producing more stock at the moment above and beyond what they have done in the past, which is flooding the market.

 

As a Southern region modeller, I can look at recent releases and wonder how on earth I can afford all of this - the Sheffield Park station set (over £150 for the set), the Beattie Well Tank, 02 and Wainwright C due out next year, in addition to various other items like the new tooling SR brake van. Not only that, but there's some fantastic other models out there that if they were spread out over the year I'd have brought on impulse, or asked for as a present, like the NRM Midland Compound, the NRM City of Truro, the Midland 3F to name just a few. Yet all of this has come on stock in the last few months, or is due for release soon and as a result I've felt that I just can't purchase the 'impulse buys', which would set me back another £300+. Having just taken on a mortgage for the first time, with all the accompanying bills that I have to pay, I can't afford it all. What's worse, is that with small production runs, it is likely that I'll never be able to purchase some of these fine items, and therefore the NRM and other retailers lose out on sales.

 

But this is beside the point. What can we do as a modelling fraternity to persuade the big companies to spread their releases out over a year rather than bunching them up in the months around Christmas? I expect that most sales are made in the Christmas period, and therefore the logic must go that holding back an item so it goes into the Christmas mix is good for business.

 

It's all very well having a moan on a website, but will that change anything? Sorry Andy, I don't want to be downbeat, but if we want to change something we have to be prepared to do something - I'm a do-er not a talker. Perhaps Andy could arrange a survey with the modelling mags and then arrange a meeting with the big manufacturers on the back of this? I'm afraid I'm not very hopeful...

[Edwin_m]

What's worse, is that with small production runs, it is likely that I'll never be able to purchase some of these fine items, and therefore the NRM and other retailers lose out on sales.

 

If they sell out it means that someone else has bought them so the supplier/retailer has their money.

 

However producing limited editions at higher prices does contribute to this particular problem because the potential buyer feels they must find the money quickly before the model sells out. This spend could well be diverted from buying other models, and probably means the producer/seller of limited editions wins out over the producer/seller of more run of the mill items. This may be one reason we have so many limited editions.

[Andy Y]

It's all very well having a moan on a website, but will that change anything? Sorry Andy, I don't want to be downbeat, but if we want to change something we have to be prepared to do something - I'm a do-er not a talker. Perhaps Andy could arrange a survey with the modelling mags and then arrange a meeting with the big manufacturers on the back of this? I'm afraid I'm not very hopeful...

 

The first step is creating awareness of the issue for the opposite ends of the spectrum (the retailers are only too aware at the moment). We, as consumers, aren't necessarily the ones who can 'do' anything aside from as has been suggested to go out and buy something if you've asked it. The other consideration is to not always try and buy everything at rock bottom price, value the retailers in the community if you think you'll need them at a future time and value those investing in the future. Turn away from the garage 'model shop' who buys from a wholesaler, flogs it on ebay and will be here today and gone tomorrow.

[Western Scottish]

It may just be unfortunate timing that has caused a glut of models . I don't think its reasonable to expect the manufacturer to hold new models for release, after all they have working capital requirements too, but I can appreciate the issues for the retailers who are smaller and have less resources

 

The solution has got to be before the model is produced with proper planning and staggering production times so that there is a steady flow of new models throughout the year. From that point of view I think the current situation is a coincidence as there are 4 main manufacturers (Bachmann,Dapol,Heljan and Hornby) all delivering product at the same time. They could not possibly have planned that (its probably illegal as well). It is possible that Warley does influence this but I'm not sure all these companies supply chains are precise enough to deliver products in November. I really do think its just an unfortunate coincidence.

 

However it maybe an indication of weak demand elsewhere so that the manufacturers (Kader et al) suddenly find production slots freed up. It does seem strange that Bachmann are taking delivery of 3F, Derby lightweight, Desiro and GF 4CEP all at the same time. Surely they couldn't have planned it that way? Something must have happened that these are all delivering at same time.

 

As to manufacturers dropping less desirable items, well sorry but I really can't see that happening. Manufacturers only have models in catalogues that they think are going to sell and are desirable. They are not going to drop them. So while I think the Caley 4-2-2 or Deans 4-2-2 should have been pensioned off years ago , Hornby clearly think they add value to the range and that they can shift them. And where does it end ? I could argue that the Scotrail 156 is a poor model and shouldn't be produced in its current form but someone else might be desperately waiting for it!

 

Its a tricky subject, but I think it can only be solved by manufacturers at the production planning stage , if they want to solve it.

 

Finally do manufacturers really need small retailers? I'm thinking that as the market evolves some may be happy that the market is in the hands of big box shifters. Similarly others may wish to sell direct to the public. It is quite interesting watching the way Hattons,Kernow and Rails have evolved. Is the day of the smaller retailer over is perhaps another question worth asking.

[Kenton]

I had a few alarm bells ringing myself during last week knowing that Baby Deltics, 22s, Desiros, 3Fs, Derby Lightweights, latest Well Tanks, Midland Compounds and probably more (I've only listed locos for start!) were about to his the modellers' wallets within a matter of days of each other (and more to come over the next week or so) geared up to meet Warley, Christmas and other demands such as meeting the Model of the Year deadline dates.

Sometimes I think I am very peculiar indeed.

 

Once again I find all this frothing about new releases passing me by. As once again there is nothing in there that either catches my eye or even peaks over the horizon of my desire to own anything.

 

Oh, I am sure there will be some out there desperate and suffering agonising pain as they wait for one or other of these new releases. But for me it remains a disappointment and fuss over nothing.

 

I am sure the quality and detail continues to improve over 20+year old models, but I can't be alone in thinking "so it should" the manufacturing process has moved forward. Yet I cannot also get over the fact that there will still be "faults" and "compromise" that will be laboured over for years to come (just like do you remember that Lima ...)

 

So I for one wish the manufacturers would concentrate on a steady flow of releases throughout the year, forget Warley, Xmas and awards. Keep the old classics being churned out until you release a much improved version. I'll buy what I need for a layout, when I need it, if it has been released or continue to do something else. Oh and for heaven's sake not another variant 37!

[Andy Y]

It is possible that Warley does influence this but I'm not sure all these companies supply chains are precise enough to deliver products in November. I really do think its just an unfortunate coincidence.

 

It's likely that if everything went to plan then the releases would be staggered more but a whole host of R&D, production and delivery issues may add varying delays but what I'd be fairly certain of is that the manufacturer then starts to apply pressure to the factory to get everything they can out and shipped for Warley/Christmas etc so whether planned or coincidental we end up with the same result.

[pete_mcfarlane]

However it maybe an indication of weak demand elsewhere so that the manufacturers (Kader et al) suddenly find production slots freed up.

And of course back in the good old days Hornby, Farish etc used to manufacture most of their products in house. Therefore they had to keep their factory running at pretty much the same rate throughout the year which avoided these sudden gluts of new models.

[cary hill]

The pattern of new releases appears to resemble waiting for a bus these days. You wait for ages then several arrive at once, unfortunately, unlike buses where you only need to catch one, catching multiple new releases is more problematical.

[mike tugsandsheds]

I have been taking stock recently and looking at not only my purchases, but where am I taking my hobby.

 

I have a few limited eds arriving before christmas via Kernow, Model Rail and Rail Exclusive with the 33's from Rail Exc in the New Year

 

Anything from the mainstream will be purchased from Arcadia or Hattons - My local shop is an Expo Tools dealer so I'll be buying my Airbrush and Compressor from them.

 

Loco Wise, I can see 2012 being a lean year unless Hornby release a Super Detailed 67 or Bachmann release further versions of Dellner 57 in either Virgin or Network Rail

 

I'm going to concentrate on Wagons and coaches in 2012

[Fenman]

Finally do manufacturers really need small retailers? I'm thinking that as the market evolves some may be happy that the market is in the hands of big box shifters. Similarly others may wish to sell direct to the public. It is quite interesting watching the way Hattons,Kernow and Rails have evolved. Is the day of the smaller retailer over is perhaps another question worth asking.

 

I agree, this is a really interesting question. Independent booksellers have largely disappeared although, there, near-monopoly e-tailers have replaced them rather than publishers selling direct.

 

In the 00 model railway market where there are really only two big manufacturers (plus a couple of apparently growing medium manufacturers), and where one of those already has a near monopoly in the general public's minds, I would have thought selling direct and through a few big box-shifters would probably be a very "efficient" way of doing business (I mean in purely financial terms, as far as the manufacturers are concerned).

 

Whether this is desirable or not from our perspective is a different question. I miss my local bookseller. But I probably buy just as many books.

 

Paul

[TomE]

[bullet proof pants on]

 

I can't disagree with anything Andy has written and I can sense the frustration from the retailers after reading Gareth's post but, playing devil's advocate, I think it's only fair to look at the root cause of this problem and I'm rather afraid that could in large part be the consumer, the collector, the modeller. Yep, that's you and me.

 

We are the ones that are constantly demanding new models. We are the ones who generate our wishlists and our polls suggesting to the manufactures what we would like to see them produce and to lay the blame entirely at their doorstep is a little disingenuous I feel. After all, they are only responding to our appetite for new models and can we really cry foul when they deliver what we have asked for?

 

You could also argue that the typical development period of these models gives us more than enough time to make sure the purchase funds are all in order, regardless of when the models are due to arrive, although I fully appreciate that times are tough, and we can't all have money sitting around waiting for the manufacturers to deliver the goods!

 

Tom

[The Stationmaster]

One organisation which seems to have got its timing consistent is the NRM. It seems that every two years around about November (I did say 'consistent' - not 'right') it announces a completely new loco which is deliverable within a few weeks; the only thing we are now able to work out about it is 'when', the subject is supposition. The NRM clearly work to a programme with their manufacturer and it is basically a mature relationship.

 

Perhaps as other commissioners build up their relationships and experience they too will be able to become as consistent as the NRM so, for instance, Bruchurchworth Models will ensure that their release of a 'Star' synchronises with the Swindon 'Steam' annual exhibition but is hopefully announced some time in advance giving those interested a chance to save and retailers a chance to plan. Similarly DeezulsRus could no doubt synchronise with a DEMU show on a similar basis. Cash flow must surely be as critical to manufacturers as it is to retailers so it will hopefully be seen as in their interest to follow this pattern instead of all rushing to pick off the punters in a tight market in the 6 weeks before Christmas?

 

Meanwhile we as purchasers should take note of what has been said in this thread. If we commit to buy by pre-order then we should honour our commitment - although it means we have to trust the manufacturer to come up with the goods. While that might not help the spread of retailer cashflow it at least offers them a stable 'promise to pay'. And, as others have said, if we know about 'it' well in advance and want 'it' then we save/budget for it - things might well come out of order but usually they tend to be late at present so not only can we save but we can earn (very paltry) interest on the savings and very few things are emerging to surprise us.

[Oldddudders]

I don't have any clever answers to this conundrum, but the issue of UK manufacturers getting everything in stock for Warley and Xmas is interesting,as has been suggested. Given that capacity in China is limited, have other customers been pushed back down the ladder?

 

It won't be very clear, but this site is the Belgian manufacturer LS Models http://www.lsmodels....&compagnie=SNCF I have been watching their production dates for several SNCF models, and suddenly about a month ago it all changed. Look at the right hand column. Where dates in a particular quarter of the year had been quoted by model, all of a sudden those have disappeared, and a simple "a venir" (meaning "to come") has replaced them. [Epuise means sold out.] So models that should have been delivered in Q3 2011 suddenly have no timescale. LS Models is hardly a big company, and it only does limited runs. I infer that their Chinese partner has had timescales slip, and do wonder if that was in order to meet UK demands for November and Xmas? Incidentally a look at the home-page might give us some ideas of how a manufacturer can try to keep customers in touch with developments.

 

EDIT The box for the LS Models Picasso railcar that I own says it was made by someone in China called Modern Gala.