Transpennine Upgrade : Manchester/Leeds

[mac1960]

I have to say there is a lot more optimism on this thread than in the real world. Let’s start with freight. We have a falling Coal Haul as everyone knows, Steel dropping as that industry declines in the UK, Petrochemical loads again have dropped consistently. Quarry traffic remains buoyant due to the construction sector, though I am not sure it is expanding that much apart from odd new developments like those in Ribblesdale. The inland port scheme has worked well in certain areas, generally the Midlands and the traffic to these from actual ports  is new, though apart from the traffic from there to the likes of Inverness / Aberdeen moving containers internally within England does not seem to work at all. As others have said most of  the original container terminals have disappeared, so there is little internal container traffic.  I am not sure what growth we will see though in the UK , without govt intervention to force companies to use rail,which as I said previously occurs in some countries in Europe,but these are notably either bigger countries like Germany, or are on major European transport links ie Switzerland and Austria. The size of the UK makes much internal freight movement uneconomic unless Govt  forces it, and consumers are willing to pay the inevitable price increases this will cause, which my observations on UK spending would say they will not. As for moving containers across the North of England from the East to say Manchester or Liverpool to Hull you would have to ask why would you bother. Putting containers on trains is expensive, compared with ship, and there are extensive short sea trade ships moving containers from the likes of Rotterdam, Bremen, Hamburg to UK ports, not to mention some from UK ports. I just do not see freight being that bigger player without Govt intervention. 
 

Passenger traffic across the Pennines is probably going to stay at similar levels to those pre pandemic. I do not see much growth due to technology changes, and the WFH mantra. The problem compared with the SE is the lack of local stations and lines which were closed years ago,and built upon to feed to longer services. My local station is Slaithwaite but on my London trips it is quicker to drive to Wakefield. If you live in the centre of a provincial city then you do not have that commute to your mainline station, but there are many other towns other than Leeds and Manchester / Liverpool who,s population have to travel to jump of places like Wakefield but will continue to use roads.
 

Anyway I would love to see more freight and indeed passengers butvInjust do not see it happening.
 

Cheers

Mac

[PenrithBeacon]

8 hours ago, Mike Storey said:

 

Agreed. That motivation has already caused Sainsbury (and thus also Argos) to switch to rail for long hauls, and has increased Tesco's use of rail. A news item about DIRFT (Daventry Intermodal Rail Freight Terminal) recently clearly demonstrated that capacity is key, as they are running out of it. It was not that long ago that many people were saying how these inland ports would never get used by rail..... so Trans Pennine gauge enhancements for freight would be extremely useful, not just for new flows, but to divert many existing flows which take up so much pathing space up the WCML. The issue then becomes additional capacity, both on the route and at the feeders. 

 

It would be useful if freight could be diverted off the M62 and onto the railway. But I would suspect that it would involve a subsidy of some sort.

[mac1960]

That would have to be a very large subsidy to cover the artics on the M62, not to mention Woodhead as well. Rail Freight has changed markedly  as has the distribution industry since the 1960,s, and even more I think in the last 10 years. Consumer expectations are considerably higher than back then. Just in time delv never existed until the late 80,s in the UK, never mind the likes of Amazon. I think those trucks will be on those roads for a long time to come ,unless there is positive, but costly intervention by Govt, that I do not feel will happen in the UK, as there is currently no popular base for it to grow from demanding it and willing to pay for it.

 

Cheers

Mac

[Zomboid]

Isn't the point of improving the route to unlock the potential that a population centre containing West Yorkshire and Lancashire has?

 

I don't think the distances involved are enough to make much in the way of freight viable without significant intervention to skew the economics (this may come from decarbonisation of road freight, that's still an unknown). But given the size of the population on either side of the Pennines and relative closeness, 20 carriages per hour would seem to be leaving untapped potential passenger traffic there.

 

Unlike HS2, this is one route where speed improvements might well be the point, as even the fastest trains go for a bit of a trundle compared to the ECML/ WCML between York and Manchester.

 

The other aspect is that at present the only electrified connection between the ECML and WCML in England is the North London Line. After leaving London, the next one you come to is at Carstairs, and that's not really good enough.

[woodenhead]

Peel believe there is scope for intermodal traffic between Hull, Manchester and Liverpool - they see it an important corridor to be developed.  What they base that on I don't know, but I guess they see a lot of container traffic on the M62 that they would like to see on trains using their ports along the ship canal.

 

But mainly I see the improved connectivity between Liverpool and Leeds as part of the North's ambition to create a linear city i.e. growth alongside the railway line and people travelling between the various cities like people do within Greater London.

[mac1960]

Zomboid
The latter point I would agree with however living in the area and knowing people who use the service from both Huddersfield, Slaithwaite and Marsden their biggest complaints are lack of secure parking, not enough seats, and poor punctuality. I do not use the routes into Manchester or Leeds for some of those reasons but partly because I generally do not stay in one location all day so travel to a number of places in the North in one day. The rest of my work is overseas where I use Manchester Airport, but drive and park, or on my long haul stuff the airline sends a chauffeur and car.

 

Cheers

Mr Mac

[mac1960]

Woodenhead

Ah Peel Holding the Rochdale Mafia ! They talk the talk but basically they are a property company and the MSC and Liverpool and Glasgow Docks gave them cheap land to develop. Pre media city a significant shipping company explored a possibility of short sea trade container service into the old Manchester Liners wharf in Salford. Initial negotiations were with the MSC who as you will be aware are a sub company to Peel. Peel only found out a little latter, and canned it immediately. Media city now on that spot.
They have since opened a birth at Irlam but not rail connected and very small, not sure how it is doing.

 

Cheers

Mac

[Zomboid]

40 minutes ago, mac1960 said:

Huddersfield, Slaithwaite and Marsden their biggest complaints are lack of secure parking, not enough seats, and poor punctuality

All of which need money spending to do something about.

 

Meanwhile Manchester to Leeds would seem to take 55 minutes for a bit over 40 miles. I don't know the terrain around there, though I imagine it's not as quick to drive around as it is in the much less geographically spectacular South East, but even so an average speed of about 40mph isn't especially impressive. And that's where you hit the HS2 argument - getting the fast trains out of the way improves the every train that runs in the area and allows some that don't run today to be offered.

[woodenhead]

58 minutes ago, mac1960 said:

They have since opened a birth at Irlam but not rail connected and very small, not sure how it is doing.

 

It's getting bigger and a new location, it has warehousing being built and will soon be rail joined to the Chat Moss route east and west.

 

It's name is Port Salford, right next to the M60 viaduct.

[Coach bogie]

I have seen no evidence of the rail connection even being started. One of the original Peel press release documents had a triangle junction of the the L&M Railway.

 

see page 17

 

https://sccdemocracy.salford.gov.uk/documents/s30697/GM30 Port Salford Extension Topic Paper.pdf

 

 

Peel bought into the film studios of the UK and then sold them on as an alternative source of easy revenue.

 

I live in the North East and Peel bought into Teesside Airport and planned housing developments on airport sight. Luckily the other partners blocked that one and they sold their stake for £35M, much more than the £500,000 originally stake they put in.

 

Mike Wiltshire

Edited December 6, 2021 by Coach bogie

[Zomboid]

Looking on Google maps, there are some bridge abutments where it looks like a rail link would cross the A57, at least. Which is a start.

[woodenhead]

1 hour ago, Coach bogie said:

I have seen no evidence of the rail connection even being started. One of the original Peel press release documents had a triangle junction of the the L&M Railway.

 

 

There was a bit of a problem between Salford, Trafford Councils and Peel and it got a bit sour for a bit - Peel built a lifting bridge over the Ship Canal as part of an M60 and A57 road improvement scheme but didn't sort out who was going to manage it afterwards with the councils refusing to adopt it (not helped when it had collapsed once during testing!!).

 

That's all resolved now and clearance work for more building on the land has been ongoing for a few months, the works for the rail link have begun to progress with a land swap earlier this year between the council and Peel to let it begin

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/port-salford-land-exchange-rail-20011986

 

Edit and thanks for mentioning this, got me looking at the incinerator that was going to be built on the opposite bank that everyone in the neighbourhood including the councils were against but Peel won Government backing for - the land was sold in April21 to a plant hire company for offices.  @Mol_PMB Did you know the land had been sold, its a weight off my mind.

Edited December 6, 2021 by woodenhead

[jamie92208]

2 hours ago, woodenhead said:

It's getting bigger and a new location, it has warehousing being built and will soon be rail joined to the Chat Moss route east and west.

 

It's name is Port Salford, right next to the M60 viaduct.

My grandfather was an original shareholder in the Mersey Docks and Harbour Board. I inherited them and attended the last AGM when Peel took it private.  The meeting was held in the docks and I was able to watch rail traffic out of the window.  I talked to some of the Peel people and they seemed quite enthusiastic about railfreight.  There is certainly short distance container traffic by rail out of Seaforth Docks to Birmingham.  I think that they will use Standedge, once it is gauge cleared.   At the moment the only container traffic that way is the Manchester waste trains that use standard 8 by 8 containers rather than 9'6" by 8 for a lot of maritime traffic.

 

Jamie

[4630]

44 minutes ago, jamie92208 said:

 At the moment the only container traffic that way is the Manchester waste trains that use standard 8 by 8 containers rather than 9'6" by 8 for a lot of maritime traffic.

 

Jamie

 

Just an update Jamie, the Manchester 'binliner' trains that operated daily via Standedge finished several years ago.  Manchester's waste contract now sees it taken by rail to Runcorn for incineration.

 

There's a similar 'energy from waste' contract in place for Liverpool which is transported daily by rail from Knowsley to Wilton on Teeside, but this is usually sent in the containers that you describe via the Calder Valley .  It's not unknown though for the working to be sent via Standedge if there's engineering work or 'service' problems on the usual route.

 

 

[Mike Storey]

Peel Ports, whilst pretty canny in land dealings, have expanded or are about to expand, rail operations at all their ports, with the exception of the Medway. This has partly been through HMG grant but also by commercial investment. Liverpool docks have been dealing with the bio-mass trains to Drax for years, whilst DB Cargo started running container trains to/from Scotland in 2018, and GB Railfreight have started container services to/from the East and West Midlands this year, with plans to serve the East coast in the near future.

 

The primary constraint is a lack of W10 gauge clearance across the Pennines, as described by Jamie.

 

Mr Mac may be pessimistic about both passenger and freight demand, but all the indicators point towards significant growth, both for environmental reasons, but also due to economics, demographics, journey times, parking problems and long term lorry driver shortages etc. For the life of me, I cannot understand anyone travelling alone with minimal baggage, not choosing to go by rail from, say, Huddersfield to Manchester Airport, with 26 direct trains per day and a roughly one hour journey time? At a cheapest fare of £11 to £14 each way, that would easily be cheaper than the parking fees alone, at £60 to £80 a week with advanced booking.

[Mike 84C]

AS an ex driver of HGV's and driving a desk as a manager, road haulage in this country is far to cut throat and far to cheap. If you do not like the price offered for a job someone else will do it for less. Our company used to send malting barley from Northampton to Scotland by rail in 70's in those Polybulk wagons. Road hauliers undercut the rail price. Government legislation and pricing diesel fueled vehicles off the road may help rail freight in the long term.

[phil-b259]

1 hour ago, Mike Storey said:

Peel Ports, whilst pretty canny in land dealings, have expanded or are about to expand, rail operations at all their ports, with the exception of the Medway. This has partly been through HMG grant but also by commercial investment. Liverpool docks have been dealing with the bio-mass trains to Drax for years, whilst DB Cargo started running container trains to/from Scotland in 2018, and GB Railfreight have started container services to/from the East and West Midlands this year, with plans to serve the East coast in the near future.

 

The primary constraint is a lack of W10 gauge clearance across the Pennines, as described by Jamie.

 

Mr Mac may be pessimistic about both passenger and freight demand, but all the indicators point towards significant growth, both for environmental reasons, but also due to economics, demographics, journey times, parking problems and long term lorry driver shortages etc.

 

But growth from a very low base!

 

Although we are gradually seeing the likes of large retailers return to rails in a limited form that is done as part of a very complex and structured logistics operation where high volumes and regular shipments can be guaranteed.

 

General merchandise and occasional flows (unless part of a port to inland depot run) remain dominated by HGVs for reasons of practicality (i.e transhipment delays + extra costs) - and that will not change however desirable it might be. In such cases change can only come about with very restrictive regulations on HGV usage and things like punitive road tolls like the Swiss have - both of which a the complete anathema to the current Government with its 'low regulation, power of the free market' ideology and will also significantly increase prices for consumers (who will make their displeasure known through the ballot box)

 

 

[Mol_PMB]

1 hour ago, Mike 84C said:

AS an ex driver of HGV's and driving a desk as a manager, road haulage in this country is far to cut throat and far to cheap. If you do not like the price offered for a job someone else will do it for less. Our company used to send malting barley from Northampton to Scotland by rail in 70's in those Polybulk wagons. Road hauliers undercut the rail price. Government legislation and pricing diesel fueled vehicles off the road may help rail freight in the long term.

 

An interesting development from the lorry driver shortage is the shipment of grain around the UK to Manchester. There have been several ships come up the canal recently bringing grain from East Anglia.

Back in the 1990s this would have travelled by rail, but in the intervening decades it has come by road. 

Sadly the rail facilities in Trafford Park no longer exist, though there would be a possibility of using bulk grain containers with a last mile delivery by road. 

 

Much as we might hate it, the price of energy will go up to fund low-carbon alternatives, and that will favour more energy-efficient and low-carbon transport such as rail. 

[Mike Storey]

23 hours ago, phil-b259 said:

 

But growth from a very low base!

 

Although we are gradually seeing the likes of large retailers return to rails in a limited form that is done as part of a very complex and structured logistics operation where high volumes and regular shipments can be guaranteed.

 

General merchandise and occasional flows (unless part of a port to inland depot run) remain dominated by HGVs for reasons of practicality (i.e transhipment delays + extra costs) - and that will not change however desirable it might be. In such cases change can only come about with very restrictive regulations on HGV usage and things like punitive road tolls like the Swiss have - both of which a the complete anathema to the current Government with its 'low regulation, power of the free market' ideology and will also significantly increase prices for consumers (who will make their displeasure known through the ballot box)

 

 

 

But, returning they are, which is why DIRFT and one or two others, are now running out of space for rail movements. Part of this is the lorry driver shortage, for sure, but the zero carbon targets of most of the major players will also be forcing them to look to rail (and sea), with the short distance tripping done by electric/hydrogen road vehicles. The DfT had better get their finger out, for once.

 

By the way, the "punitive" tolls for HGVs in Switzerland apply primarily to international movements, and not so much to domestic traffic, yet. There have been one or two referenda on the subject, but, whilst the results have always been positive for rail investment, not so for higher tariffs on road movements, other than diesel taxes and environmental targets. My brother-in-law, who lives and works there, is watching carefully, as a major amount of his company's cost base is transport.

 

[montyburns56]

23 hours ago, Mol_PMB said:

 

An interesting development from the lorry driver shortage is the shipment of grain around the UK to Manchester. There have been several ships come up the canal recently bringing grain from East Anglia.

Back in the 1990s this would have travelled by rail, but in the intervening decades it has come by road. 

Sadly the rail facilities in Trafford Park no longer exist, though there would be a possibility of using bulk grain containers with a last mile delivery by road. 

 

Much as we might hate it, the price of energy will go up to fund low-carbon alternatives, and that will favour more energy-efficient and low-carbon transport such as rail. 

 

If you mean the ships going to Cargills, then that's nothing new as it has been going on for years albeit sporadically.

[Mol_PMB]

5 minutes ago, montyburns56 said:

 

If you mean the ships going to Cargills, then that's nothing new as it has been going on for years albeit sporadically.

Ships to Cargills is nothing new. But they normally come from France, Sweden or elsewhere abroad. 

Ships to Cargills from elsewhere in the UK is unusual in recent decades. 

[Mike Storey]

I am not sure if this has already been reported here, so apologies if it has, but Rail Gazette (and others) have published some analysis of the IRP, as related in answers to questions by an "anonymous" source at the DfT. They released a simplified critical path chart and that relevant to Trans-Pennine and NPR is as follows. The dates refer to likely completion targets, and not duration of work:

 

Electrification (now denoted as NPR Phase 1!!) : 

Manchester to Stalybridge - 2024 to 2026 completion - quite why this will take so long when it has already started is not explained.

Huddersfield to Leeds - 2028 to 2030 completion - no mention whatsoever of Stalybridge to Huddersfield

Leeds to York - 2030 to 2033 - no explanation of why so long, when this too has already started. No indication of what "additional" four tracking will be needed, and where - that may wait for NPR.

Leeds to Bradford - 2028 to 2031

 

NPR (now called Phase 2!)

Leeds to York - 2036 to 2041completion - no idea what this contains and nothing is offered.

Liverpool to Manchester - 2038 to 2043 - has to wait for the delayed HS2 2B West re-think to be sorted, and then built.

Manchester to Leeds - 2040 to 2044 - decision over whether to re-bore existing, redundant single track bores to Standedge, or build new tunnels has yet to be taken, but a new tunnel is definitely planned around Manchester, off the HS2 route from Manchester Airport to Piccadilly, which will be shared with NPR up to that point.

 

Next to nothing, in fact, nothing about how to integrate HS2 East and NPR around Leeds.

 

So, apart from the first phase of electrification, not a lot of answers, except that the DfT defence was that this will give them time to look at new options and also to obtain T&W consents. Make of that what you will. The timescales do not look entirely unreasonable, with some glaring exceptions, IF you had an outline plan right now. But, as they don't, and have removed all responsibility for overseeing delivery from TfN (news that was quietly hidden in the earlier press release), and given the track record of projects that have been directly overseen by the DfT, I think we have a long, long time to wait.

[woodenhead]

So I guess I wont be travelling on a new high speed Liverpool to Leeds train in my current lifetime, will have to hope for reincarnation as another Northerner interested in rail travel.

[phil-b259]

On 19/12/2021 at 17:17, woodenhead said:

So I guess I wont be travelling on a new high speed Liverpool to Leeds train in my current lifetime, will have to hope for reincarnation as another Northerner interested in rail travel.

That rather depends on what happens electorally speaking….

 

Boris (if he manages not to be dumped by his party) will face re-election in 2-3 years time, should the general population want a different party in charge that could change the timetable and potentially accelerate delivery.

 

My hunch is that having ‘got Brexit done’ and the general disquiet over the handling of the pandemic, that ‘blue wall’ of ex Labour northern seats might not stay quite as blue next time round.

 

 

Edited January 7, 2022 by phil-b259

[d winpenny]

On 19/12/2021 at 16:37, Mike Storey said:

I am not sure if this has already been reported here, so apologies if it has, but Rail Gazette (and others) have published some analysis of the IRP, as related in answers to questions by an "anonymous" source at the DfT. They released a simplified critical path chart and that relevant to Trans-Pennine and NPR is as follows. The dates refer to likely completion targets, and not duration of work:

 

Electrification (now denoted as NPR Phase 1!!) : 

Manchester to Stalybridge - 2024 to 2026 completion - quite why this will take so long when it has already started is not explained.

Huddersfield to Leeds - 2028 to 2030 completion - no mention whatsoever of Stalybridge to Huddersfield

Leeds to York - 2030 to 2033 - no explanation of why so long, when this too has already started. No indication of what "additional" four tracking will be needed, and where - that may wait for NPR.

Leeds to Bradford - 2028 to 2031

 

NPR (now called Phase 2!)

Leeds to York - 2036 to 2041completion - no idea what this contains and nothing is offered.

Liverpool to Manchester - 2038 to 2043 - has to wait for the delayed HS2 2B West re-think to be sorted, and then built.

Manchester to Leeds - 2040 to 2044 - decision over whether to re-bore existing, redundant single track bores to Standedge, or build new tunnels has yet to be taken, but a new tunnel is definitely planned around Manchester, off the HS2 route from Manchester Airport to Piccadilly, which will be shared with NPR up to that point.

 

Next to nothing, in fact, nothing about how to integrate HS2 East and NPR around Leeds.

 

So, apart from the first phase of electrification, not a lot of answers, except that the DfT defence was that this will give them time to look at new options and also to obtain T&W consents. Make of that what you will. The timescales do not look entirely unreasonable, with some glaring exceptions, IF you had an outline plan right now. But, as they don't, and have removed all responsibility for overseeing delivery from TfN (news that was quietly hidden in the earlier press release), and given the track record of projects that have been directly overseen by the DfT, I think we have a long, long time to wait.

Wow considering an official NR presentation I watched last year was saying the entire York to Manchester TRU was meant to be completed by 2027 some of these dates are very mystifying ( I’ll see if I can find it)