Hornby's 2013 Announcements

[Michael Delamar]

Hi Michael The new peak is the best model, sure (the mainline one and its derivatives were so far out) but for the mega descerning all of the bodyside grills are in the wrong place. I see your point but its not what i was saying. Of course if the Bachmann 25 or Hornby 31 were better (and i was still in the market for them) id buy them, who wouldnt. My point was that if the high end model comes out and fundamentally its wrong (which on past history of diesels is more likely) then the high end market is effectively wiped out. Thats my point. The high end model HAS to be dimensionally accurate for the idea to work, im not convinced Hornby can deliver this. Cheers Jim

yes I agree, I think we are singing from the same hymm sheet.

 

basically their is no excuse for measuring innacuracies, if airfix and all could get it right in the 1960s with a measuring tape then why cant they now? especially if the loco survives to be measured up.

I can understand and live with it if a body has to be a few mil shorter to fit an existing chassis or motor for example, if its been designed that way thats fine but if its down to a mistake then it puts the higher end purchaser off.

 

it is in their interest to make sure it is dimensionally correct as it can hurt sales if it isnt.

[298]

 

I dont think it matters who it is aimed at. If its 'convertible' it keeps the old railway modeller in some people active...

Taking Jim's 86's as an example, it's the approach that put me off 4mm scale modelling about 10 years ago- why go and buy a new model that needs alot of work doing to it when you could pick up the bits required secondhand for alot less...? Specific liveries might have been harder to find but not impossible, but then again with the 86 you'd either have to do a full repaint anyway or put up with the square holes in the bodyside. It became clear around this time that the manufacturers would cherry pick popular classes for the "weveneverhaditsogood" treatment and generate new sales through modelling previously unreleased locos such as the prototype or more obscure diesels, and now a decade on the only manufacturer with a fleet of AC electrics in it's range is telling me they're recreating a market where it is acceptable to have lower quality models with little chance of an all new high-spec release with a proper chassis.

[hmrspaul]

Paul,

 

I do not dispute your comments.

 

I do not pretend that every number set that I provide is correct in every detail for that particular vehicle.

 

What I do is find a layout that is correct for one vehicle and, more importantly, contains as far as possible all of the lettering elements that modellers may require.

 

If it is required to reproduce a specific vehicle from a photo, there is nothing to prevent the modeller from cutting & pasting the lettering elements to suit.

 

The 'boxed' branding is taken from a photo, by the way; but the 'box' is easily cut away.

 

Regards,

John Isherwood,

Cambridge Custom Transfers.

http://www.cctrans.freeserve.co.uk/

Dear John

 

The discussion was about Hornby reportedly looking actively for photos of the wagon when newly built. Having found such a photo I only mentioned that it differed from the way the model had been lettered. I am more aware than most that sign writers appear to have found it difficult to follow BR instructions, however the Met Camm official follows the drawing RCH 2781 of 1950- 51 reasonably closely, except there is no "Code or description as necessary" - which became TROUT. I clearly said I am fully aware that John makes considerable effort to get his transfers correct.

 

Paul Bartlett

[Barry Ten]

heres a good bit of design clever,

 

Hornby Fowler tank, introduced late 70s(?)

 

had the type 7 growly motor but the body was regarded as being very good.

 

I thought it was just mine that growled like a growly thing on national growling day...

[James]

If you want a Gresley A1/A3 or A4, you'd buy Hornby because there's no competing product.

 

Depends how you look at it - if you are purely an LNER enthusiast and wish replicate a small pice of the LNER or BR ER/NER then you may decide to go for Dapol's models and go for N gauge. For some people approaching a new project, scale may not be a given so with a spot of lateral thinking we can what other competition there may be.

[great northern]

I sent an e-mail to Simon quite late on Saturday evening, pointing out a slight difficulty with one of the 2013 announcements, and suggesting  a change of running number which would solve it. I received a reply at 0812 yesterday from his i-phone, thanking me and saying that he would certainly implement the change I suggested provided the model was not too far down the production cycle to  prevent it  being done. You can't ask much more than that, considering that the intervening day was Sunday, and in the middle of the holiday period too. So, he at least is listening, and will respond to constructive suggestions.

[S.A.C Martin]

Depends how you look at it - if you are purely an LNER enthusiast and wish replicate a small pice of the LNER or BR ER/NER then you may decide to go for Dapol's models and go for N gauge. For some people approaching a new project, scale may not be a given so with a spot of lateral thinking we can what other competition there may be.

James, I find the lengths you will go to, to find an opposing view to mine to be incredible.

 

I am of course speaking entirely in the context of a OO modeller - there is no reason to speak about a different scale when talking about Hornby.

 

I don't disagree with your thoughts but in light of that I said and its context, is it relevant to the point being made that OO modellers have only one choice of manufacturer for each specific LNER pacific locomotive class?

[James]

James, I find the lengths you will go to, to find an opposing view to mine to be incredible.

 

Don't worry, playing Devil's Advocate is one of my strengths

[S.A.C Martin]

That much I find admirable!

[James]

A relevant example would have been pre-Heljan 47 days when quite a number of diesel modellers switched to modelling US outline because of the running qualities - move into 2013 and a modeller looking at shiny new N gauge locos with some nice coaches and all of a sudden mainline trains in a small space becomes attractive. In this case Hornby and Bachmann have to make sure their products will encourage previous and existing buyers and modellers to remain in 00. Well for Bachmann moving to N is a win-win situation, it wouldn't be for Hornby.

[45568]

I sent an e-mail to Simon quite late on Saturday evening, pointing out a slight difficulty with one of the 2013 announcements, and suggesting  a change of running number which would solve it. I received a reply at 0812 yesterday from his i-phone, thanking me and saying that he would certainly implement the change I suggested provided the model was not too far down the production cycle to  prevent it  being done. You can't ask much more than that, considering that the intervening day was Sunday, and in the middle of the holiday period too. So, he at least is listening, and will respond to constructive suggestions.

So Gilbert, the "low-fi" DoG is now to be 71001, Duke of Hazzard??? Good call!!!

Cheers, Peter C.

[wombatofludham]

Re the earlier debate about the 70/30% split in market sector which Hornby announced in 2007.  Surely the real issue isn't the relative size or percieved contribution to the overall financial performance of the company that "serious hobbyists" make compared to the "less discerning" trainset market.  It's the relative spending power each of those market shares is willing to make in 2013 that is the real issue. 

 

In 2007, the UK economy hadn't entered a recession, that didn't happen until the second quater of 2008, so, in 2007 the spending power of the "serious" market would have looked quite rosy, and able to absorb the higher prices charged for super-detail models.  In 2013, were in the seventh year of recession, all but a very few lucky individuals are finding the real economy tough even if they remain in full employment, so their disposable income available for luxury items like model railways is shrinking.  There will be very few who are immune to the economic climate, so perhaps Hornby have decided that producing a supermarket style "Value" and "Value+" range of models is their way of tackling that issue.  The alternative would be stick with high price hi-fidelity models for the luxury end of the market and find sales dwindling to a trickle, which would probably have not kept the company going.  We may not like the idea, but in a way a scaling back on the level of seperately fitted parts on models is only what is happening in more serious, life affecting parts of the economy.

 

Seriously, does everyone really think that the 70% "modellers/collectors" market are all so financially insulated from reality that they are able to keep buying multiple models at £150+ in today's economy, or at least enough of them to mean Hornby would still turn in a profit? 

[Anglian]

Of course the alternate view is that some would, for example, rather buy two hi-fi locos at £150 each than four lo-fi models at £75 each, (assuming a yearly budget of £300 for locomotives). 

[coachmann]

I wonder if welfare and benefit cuts will hit beer and cigarettes as badly as they will hit Hornby....?

[wombatofludham]

Of course the alternate view is that some would, for example, rather buy two hi-fi locos at £150 each than four lo-fi models at £75 each, (assuming a yearly budget of £300 for locomotives). 

True, but that assumes that people actually have the luxury of an annual budget and can make decisions whether it is a case of two better models vesus four less well detailed ones.  I can't help thinking that for many it isn't a choice between multiple buys, but one lo or mid fi loco probably as a Christmas present, or nothing.

 

Or is everyone on here one of those bankers who ran off with our money in 2008 and can therefore assume people will continue to fund a hobby willy-nilly ahead of bills, food and the like?

[Ron Ron Ron]

Re the earlier debate about the 70/30% split in market sector which Hornby announced in 2007.  Surely the real issue isn't the relative size or percieved contribution to the overall financial performance of the company that "serious hobbyists" make compared to the "less discerning" trainset market.  It's the relative spending power each of those market shares is willing to make in 2013 that is the real issue. 

 

All contributions from various sales markets will be important.

A particular subsection of sales to a (hypothetical) 20% of the total, may make the difference between profit and loss. 

In such a case that 20% is just as important than the other 80%.

 

 

In 2007, the UK economy hadn't entered a recession, that didn't happen until the second quater of 2008, so, in 2007 the spending power of the "serious" market would have looked quite rosy, and able to absorb the higher prices charged for super-detail models.  In 2013, were in the seventh year of recession........

.......Seriously, does everyone really think that the 70% "modellers/collectors" market are all so financially insulated from reality that they are able to keep buying multiple models at £150+ in today's economy, or at least enough of them to mean Hornby would still turn in a profit? 

 

This is a very good point.

Right throughout the 00's, Hornby had returned from the brink of closure to being very successful, founded on the back of their focus on satisfying the "adult" market (ooh err Missus !).

There are dozens of press clippings available on line, originating from the beginning to the end of the decade, where Hornby have been reported, or have themselves stated that the adult market was strong and resilient to most economic factors.

I'm sure most of us will agree that this was borne out by events over that period and until very recently.

The plentiful and varied array of high quality models kept coming in ever increasing numbers and the paying punters were snapping them up gleefully.

 

However, I don't think it's the recession alone that has prompted this "supposed" move by Hornby.

Their own internal difficulties on the back of the economic environment appears to have left them rather exposed.

But more than that, I suspect there is something else driving this.

 

Just as the acquisitions were made to spread Hornby's portfolio and hedge against reliance on just a handful of businesses, I'm wondering if there has been an uneasy feeling about the UK model train business being too reliant on the modeller/collector market in the long term. That market is typified by an older customer base, the attendant disposable incomes and fuelled to a large degree by nostalgia.

Despite the last Golden decade, just how long could that customer base be sustained, especially when we factor in the gradual drying up of healthy pension schemes and the economic climate?

 

Now going out on a limb and just flying a kite......

The other thing is that at its core, Hornby is a toy company and its managers and executive are, if I'm correct, mostly "toy people'.

Is there a natural pull within the company to get back to its roots?

Do they view the success of the adult/collector market as some sort of side show, albeit one that provided the platform for Hornby survival over a decade ago?

Maybe I'm being too fanciful with that idea?

 

 

Ron

(....puts wooden spoon away for now)

 

 

.

 

 

 

[Cor-onGRT4]

Maybe it is better for Hornby to do a step back in releasing newly tooled locomotives and coaches

2012 catalogue-  5 steamloco's-  7 coaches and many reliveries.

Say 2 loco's and 4 coaches new releases a year and a few reliveries less.

It will be possible for people with lesser money to keep up with the new releases.

If Hornby make many newly tooled releases but slower sales it will mean slower return of there investments in tooling and develloping

It is not only Hornby who is bringing new models other makers want a piece of the cake to, but people have to decide

what they going to buy for their money and it can only spend once

A step back in releases won't be such a bad idea, and if done considered, everyone gets something a year

there wil be a regular sales and people can stay afford their hobby. 

[Ron Ron Ron]

Maybe it is better for Hornby to do a step back in releasing newly tooled locomotives and coaches....

 

That would be suicide unless they downsized their operation.

The vast majority of sales for a new model come immediately after release and in the couple of months following. After which sales are said to be a trickle.

There is much needed income from that release period when the retailers place most of their orders.

Without a number of such releases each year, could Hornby survive on mostly small repeat orders?

I doubt it.

[The Stationmaster]

Just as the acquisitions were made to spread Hornby's portfolio and hedge against reliance on just a handful of businesses, I'm wondering if there has been an uneasy feeling about the UK model train business being too reliant on the modeller/collector market in the long term. That market is typified by an older customer base, the attendant disposable incomes and fuelled to a large degree by nostalgia.

Despite the last Golden decade, just how long could that customer base be sustained, especially when we factor in the gradual drying up of healthy pension schemes and the economic climate?

 

Now going out on a limb and just flying a kite......

The other thing is that at its core, Hornby is a toy company and its managers and executive are, if I'm correct, mostly "toy people'.

Is there a natural pull within the company to get back to its roots?

Do they view the success of the adult/collector market as some sort of side show, albeit one that provided the platform for Hornby survival over a decade ago?

Maybe I'm being too fanciful with that idea?

Ron

(....puts wooden spoon away for now)

 

I reckon you're more or less on the money Ron - all the talk about 'a new market sector' says exactly the same in my book; and that in itself from Hornby's viewpoint might not be a bad move.

 

They must have seen how the modeller market has changed and although they initially pooh-poohed it and predicted an early end to it the rise of the commissioned model must be sucking money out of what they saw as an attractive market sector.  Whether or not that also affects the 'collector' market is debatable although there must be some 'collectors' who are being sucked that way and just look at some of the modellers on here who are buying all sorts of oddball (for their modelling theme) locos or trains, usually because they exude a quality approach to mass production and deliver something special. Is the money still there? Well I suspect that it probably is but it is now being spent differently over a broader range of suppliers who have sprung up in the past few years thus you have to be good or clever to get it, your product has to be both the right one and up to the mark (which costs investment) and you have to accept that the volumes are much less than the old mass produced pattern.

 

Overall I still get the impression that Hornby still don't fully understand the different levels of the collector market and how to exploit it or cut back from but that is another issue.  What I suspect matters to them in their marketing is what could reasonably be called the balkanisation of the market for more detailed models with unusual prototypes selling as well as everyday hacks.  Simple answer to that is either join 'em (Bachmann, Dapol, and in some respects Heljan, plus the commissioners) or try a slightly different tack and preferably one that happens to fit nicely with any mass marketing ideas you might still have.  So, for example, instead of going at it full belt with a P2 you do a two-way bet instead and work to your new marketing idea and try to capture two markets.

 

 

Will it be a successful policy - only time will tell; the steam locos they've done so far to this marketing model have been well known outside the enthusiast world and are almost everyday names so sales success was more or less a given.  'Olton Hall'/'Hogwarts Castle' might also work like that but I'm not sure about the P2.  We live in  interesting times.

[Dunsignalling]

True, but that assumes that people actually have the luxury of an annual budget and can make decisions whether it is a case of two better models vesus four less well detailed ones. I can't help thinking that for many it isn't a choice between multiple buys, but one lo or mid fi loco probably as a Christmas present, or nothing.

 

Or is everyone on here one of those bankers who ran off with our money in 2008 and can therefore assume people will continue to fund a hobby willy-nilly ahead of bills, food and the like?

No, but all of us have choices.

 

A lot of people replace their TV at 2-3 year intervals to keep up with the latest gimmicks; similarly with cars. Both are lifestyle choices that incur high rates of depreciation. I buy cars after somebody else has taken the highest depreciation hit and generally keep them a long time. I only get a new TV when the old one starts playing up.

 

That releases quite a lot of money for the things I want more but, as prices rise, I naturally think twice before buying. I have bought one of several models where, in years past, I would have had a couple.

[Guest Belgian]

A couple of factors which affect Hornby's overall sales haven't been aired as far as I know, viz: when those in work cease so to be and become reliant on a fixed income (whether by reason of redundancy, unemployment or retirement) and when an ageing population starts to die off they become less able to fund their modelling or cease to model entirely. Many of these are likely to be what is known as the 'enthusiast' market, ie the 'high-end' market. Their existing collections are 'recycled' by being sold off, most probably through e-bay these days but also model shops, thus having a 'double-whammy' effect on Hornby's market. Hornby thus become more reliant on what one might call the 'less-enthusiast' market.

 

JE

[Fenman]

...when an ageing population starts to die off they become less able to fund their modelling or cease to model entirely. 

 

I completely agree with you.

 

Paul

[S.A.C Martin]

I really must say this - I sent Simon Kohler an email last night with suggestions for 2013 and 2014, and voicing in particular, my appreciation of the recent Thompson O1. I had a reply from him at no less than eight minutes past eight this morning!

 

Rather gratified with his response too. I can say I feel much happier now having made my points in the most appropriate manner and that they have, if not acted on, at least been seen and understood. I sincerely hope one of my suggestions makes it into the range one day, but for now I'm satisfied with the response I had from the good gentleman of Hornby.

 

In short: Simon, many thanks.

[coachmann]

I wish folk would stop banging on about the ageing population dying off. It's natural for old folks to die off just as it's natural for young folk to consider they are immortal.

 

The elderly measure things over a good many years and try to use this knowledge to anticipate the future, while the young mostly think short term because of thier limited knowledge. So in case people need reminding, steam finally died on BR some 40-odd years and far from being forgotten, it is expanding from all quarters, even Helljan.

[James]

I wish folk would stop banging on about the ageing population dying off. It's natural for old folks to die off just as it's natural for young folk to consider they are immortal.

 

It's also pretty irrellevent as the key to continuing the hobby is to target the thirty-somethings and beyond who have money to spend on hobbies. That's the future of the hobby - whilst I love seeing younger people and children being interested (and would always encourage it) the truth is they have very little to spend to fund the hobby. Slightly older enthusiasts do have the money and if you can keep them interested and enaged for the rest of their lives, there's easy fifty years in many cases. This will keep the hobby going, not the train set.