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adb968008

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Everything posted by adb968008

  1. Some nice looking PKP stock there, can I see some GYSEV stock too ?
  2. There's some really vindictive people in this community isn't there ? This is supposed to be a creative hobby. At the end of the day all I did was break ranks and express some concern, some of which was addressed (and everyone now knows about lights, sprung buffers etc), I'd rather take the risk to hope for better, than sit back wait for release and berate someone's efforts and sink their sales.. a trait many here try to earn badges doing. I stayed polite, withdrew and maintained my dignity, I also respect the manufacturers statement and input, unlike many others here, I am also conscious to avoid not bearing grudges or agendas unlike several here. So if everyone's all fine and dandy with the EP, let's hope the same stay Schmum when it's released eh ? please.
  3. Hornby's biggest asset is its name, and some of its other brand names. Splitting that out and starting a new company using that name, would to me seem counterintuitive, as would charging Hornby to use its own name. Neither would clearing out your staff, in what is a very limited skill set industry that are not easily replaced, unless it was ultimately clear they aren't part of a future strategy (or just don't want to be). I could foresee some brands or sub-brands being either sold, or ranges retired if they are not producing margin or have limited potential. Similarly there could be some focussed and targeted marketing and specific tie-ups coming to exploit potential. Additionally we could see a combining of interests, PAMP owns multiple companies, including an interesting possible complimentary technology company in Scotland and you could equally see a new technology product emerge too. Be sure of one thing, investment companies don't just open their wallets on a whim, they have strategies and investment criteria, they have done their maths and have a plan, it won't be about buying and selling trains, it will be about realising growth potential in struggling companies. I for one think Hornby has tons of potential, but managing and effecting change is a hard thing, and we've seen a few execs come and go recently demonstrating how hard it is, especially from within. A strong parent maybe what is needed in this instance, especially if that parent contained not just the ability to execute a strategy, but someone with a little enthusiastic knowledge too, as this would give confidence to both company and investors, that such a plan could be implemented, I suspect they do and soon enough we'll see who it is and the management team to support him and run the business. Far from negative, I think this could be an exciting time at Hornby, with oppourtunity to blow away some dust and come up with some new ideas as investment money has been put in and sustained, so exploiting that to get a return is the obvious next step, exploration by its nature is creative.
  4. This should be the goal of any company owned by shareholders. Revenue doesn't mean too much, its margin and potential, but those things you won't see in any financial report. Now PAMP has control they get inner access to this information and make decisions accordingly, and there statement clearly indicates they haven't yet started and all options are open. I'd imagine the first indications will be by end of year, but it could take a few years. I wouldn't read too much negative in to their statement, PAMP has continued to invest, if they felt there was no potential, they would have cut their losses and bailed out, if that was cheaper and higher return to their shareholders than spending more to take control and realise potential.
  5. Again thanks for taking the time explaining.I think I could rig something to counter that, but I'll accept the storyline, as it'll take me a day or two to make it. (I may do anyways just for fun, but I'll leave my making point here). as for DCC, I don't know where sound came from, I was thinking light control, raising/lowering wheel, opening a door (heightened expectations and all) but I'd settle for clickerty clack, doors and a general people conversation if it were sound myself. I see some are making fun of my suggestion, so I'll end it with this is what Europeans are now getting. (£500 inc 3 coaches and the loco all Sound, lights, operable doors and pantographs), 145 Euros today for that coach with opening doors, DCC lights and sound, though unsurprisingly it's sold out. https://youtu.be/BYUnS5FYAqg As it is, we're getting what we're getting and I'm sure many will be ok with it, the last responses certainly cleared up some concerns, reading some other posts I don't think the UK market is ready for this kind of evolution (that model in the video was first produced in 2009). As I said I didn't want to cause a fuss, but my opinion is this coach could be much more, but I don't want to rock the boat. I wish the model the best and look forwards to the painted samples. Thanks for the detailed responses though they are appreciated, I think that everyone here would agree.
  6. Thank you for your timely reply, and the depth of answers, it may be worth asking Rails to promote some of these points as I just double checked their ads and they weren't mentioned... this is a move towards more reassuring. Is it to late to give up on the extra wheel ? (I get the p4 bit, but in an 80/20 situation surely p4 is a minimal sale, but the USP aspect must be greater ?), could a wheel loose on an conical eggcup style axle (or place the drilled wheel centre between two inverse conical bearing cups) not give the wheel the angular flexibility on curves, The frame of which could be adjustable on the chassis for the p4 peeps, on a first radius curve I wouldn't expect the angle to be more that 20 degrees and barely noticeable on a moving train, once off the curve it would gravitate down to its natural centre, which of course is inline to the rail...with no flange to worry about and the axle height set by definition at the rail to wheel height. (Real railways have cone shaped wheels for this purpose for over 100 years, I'm suggesting do it on the axle, or on the wheel centre for a model), I've seen it done on a different rtr model but for the life of me I can't remember which it was (not uk), but was on a fixed chassis under a cab on a 4-6-2 or like to allow it round sharp curves. ( 9f 2-10-0's have an unflanged centre wheel and a fixed wheel base attracting no complaints even though it overhangs on curves and this is fixed axle and rigid chassis, it's one of the more popular classes with enthusiasts). Glad also regarding the grills and access door wind shield (though the CAD doesn't show the door wind shield ?, which is on your pictures of the real thing). another post here (not yours) suggested price reflected unique nature of what might be a single purchase for most people, I think that's under estimated, I suspect demand for this could be quite high, unique rolling stock isn't "unique", most people I'd generalise only own one steam crane, observation car , auto-coach, stove van, brake tender, snow plough...and this coach belongs afterall with Mallard. I do think there's potential to move this from could have to must have for many more people. Finally, I should add I do like the crease in the vestibule end interior corners, nice touch. Again thanks for the response, it's appreciated.
  7. I see on the prototype, there are a number of wind shields/window bars not just on end windows but also protecting the side windows On the door above the dynamometer wheel, I don't see these on the model will these be included ? Is the extra wheel is just moulded on ? I know it's a gimmick, but it what makes this coach unique, and considering the price of it, this USP is this "odd number of wheels" not the point of this coach, not to have it free spinning ? Does it come with interior lights I havent seen any reference to it ? How about the red tail light on the upper left side coach ends ? Are the buffers moulded on ? Or are they separate, sprung ? looking at the EP it's not clear, but given all metal is pronounced they suggest to look moulded plastic ? (It's also a functional question of strength..moulded plastic buffers goes back to the 70's and ebay is littered with stuff where they've broken off with simple buffer locks on curves etc).. I'm sure everyone's had a buffer come off something when shunting it'd be gutting to see it break off this and not be a separate fitting that fails safe to allow refitting).. At risk of being harsh, I hope this doesn't turn into a Ratner's model, but this coach sets a new bar on price, double that of its peers latest DCC fitted toolings and triple that of its current off the shelf peers, one would expect it to stand out for the right reasons, not just because " its unique so therefore it's expensive". The tooling isn't made out of jelly, if it sells out more can be made, its limited (actually it's not "limited" it's "exclusive") only by self imposed limitations, nothing else. I'm thinking it could have had representations of operable hinged doors, raising/lowering wheel, adjustable windows, maybe even a DC operated recording device and really set a new bar for modelling but instead it just looks like it could just be any other coach on my layout. It's not all bad.. I've seen some comments on here about the raised door edges, but actually these have been captured reasonably well, the coach has indentations at the upper part, and raised edges on the lower part of the door, this has been reflected in the model, it maybe could be sharpened up a little, but it is only an EP, but they have captured it, and it's a bit unusual to see both inprototype and the human eye. I can also see some of the external gauges have been captured on the frames, presumably these will be painted on the sample to be pronounced. The underframe detail, whilst invisible on the layout running, has been captured in the earlier EP exceptionally well. Nice to see coupling chains too. But My perception today is Yes it's unique prototype but at the moment the model is just looking a bit average and priced a little high, I'm not yet seeing the value add justification, but I do really hope to be turned around and blown away at some stage as I would like one, and am happy to pay the price, but to be proud of owning it, not just because it fills a gap and left feeling a mug. Don't want to get into a spat, or be a detractor I do support this model, and overall I'm not against Stallion pricing, if it's worth it, but I'm just feeling less horse more pony about it from what I've seen so far, which I find is a shame.
  8. I think we've had this debate before, depends what you call German... is that DACH region, Germany, every country which has some imported German stock, every country with stock modelled by a German company or every German manufacturer, not forgetting Roco is Austrian. British is uniquely British, German is European. However I feel ebay gives the answer.. In the model railway category tonight we have 267k items in the UK and 354k in Germany (inc rest of EU selling to Germany). (As way of side track ebay Austria only has 2144 items in model railways listed... they all use the German site, just as Canadians list on the US site). Other food for thought, the highest value item in UK models is err... well isn't a model, it belongs in the bizarre thread.. http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Replica-Diesel-Engine-EMD-F7-Santa-Fe-Super-Chief-Model-Railway-Pub-Man-Cave/292248069221?hash=item440b57a465%3Ag%3AqWQAAOSwrqlZfZqB but ignoring that we're looking at a £9k item, and 129 items above £1000 In the German thread... that 1,105 above the 1000 Euro threshold, the highest value is a 28k euro marklin collection followed by a few CIWL coaches for 25k... http://www.ebay.de/itm/Wunder-Spur-1-Orient-Express-6-teilig-digital-mit-Personenwagen-Packwagen-KM1/182697238740?hash=item2a899aa0d4%3Ag%3AZ%7EMAAOSwWJ5ZgLUU and we think we're paying too much. My opinion, Uk and Germany are close to equal, if you took all the "foreign elements" out of the equation and focused on pure DB/DR stock solely used in Germany. Anyway back to topic before the offtopicStasi arrive.
  9. adb968008

    Dapol 'Western'

    There's is a periodical sale of westerns, I have 8 (D1000/13/5/23/41/48/58/62) 4 of which were bought over the last few years in sales as it was "too good to miss", I have all the preserved ones bar D1010, I really don't need anymore westerns, but what happens to be on offer right now ? The only livery I'm missing is blue half yellow ends, afaik it's not been done (pristine condition).
  10. I'm still behind the times, way behind. I have a mass of track on 4 levels, with each set of sidings, loops given a station name (sometimes pseudonyms to allow multiple regions to be covered), have a timetable (1500 trains in a "day" that takes me about 2 years to complete a day), shed rosters and distinct paths / routes (I have a regional route map) that services follow, even loading restrictions as some trains go as much as 24 inches difference in height during a journey on varying gradients 1 of which is silly, planned loco changes... Its a lot of Admin to ensure there are paths and platform capacity, but I love that part just as much as the shunting, as well as sorting out the inevitable mess when something causes delays, when something goes bump, time and timetable carry on. Scenery, thats for retirement when I've more time, today I want to play trains as I have to balance life between family and work too, having all the Admin above means I can restart the clock where I left off, as soon as I plug in the controller. I don't think there's that many new tools produced since 2010 that can hit the 20k barrier for production, I'm not so sure there were many before it either since 2000. I'd imagine popular ones like Thomas, Pug, 08, 47, Scotsman, A4, Merchant Navy, Black 5, West Country all pre-2010 but models like 71000, P2, Crosti, they've been heavily done but doubt they reached 20k. In these pages somewhere is a mention of 6000 USA tanks, which is seen as a massive success, and there's lots of them out there still. I suspect 3000-6000 is more the range now. However the points of your post stack up, no way would someone in the 1990's suggest doing Kestrel, Lion, DP1, DP2 and the Bulleid Diesels as a rtr model as the decisions would probably be made on a 20k+ production run. I suspect the statistics of the APT-E only stack up because it's a train of 2 halves joined together, not 4 distinct tools, thus doubling the production numbers. However that the costs of tooling for 3000-6000 is matched by sufficient market price to support this quantity is allowing us models to be made that was never before possible and that in itself is stimulating the hobby. The concern is that this is unicorns blood and each new tool reduces the hobby life by half, there is a growing pile of "limited" and "exclusive" stuff out there, which after release the left overs looks to be lingering on the shelves for years afterwards, obviously tieing up cash, reducing the return and delaying further investment. Some ready to run European stuff has been made in quantities of 50 per livery, with a production run of less than 1000, but at a cost of nearly £500 per loco and it's not brass !
  11. Well I'm in my 40's, and there's no way I'm saying how much I spend a year, other than no figure suggested on this thread comes close. I bought my first loco (D824 Highflyer for £9.99 from Railmail c1981/2 paid by Postal order, so I've been a remote buyer since Christmas money from grandparents days). 45691 followed a year later at £16.95 and in 1984 I used my holiday money to buy a Lima 9400 for £10 spending much of the summer broke, but looking at it. Since then model railways has been in my life at every stage. So I don't fit the demographic, age profile nor spending profile being commented on above. Secondly, I rarely ever set foot in a model shop, I only have 3 shops that I know of, in a range of 30 miles from me. If a shop was in a mall I'd probably try to avoid it, as the prices are invariably unattractive at such locations. As for feeling special, well I have the million air miles and lifetime status, and the airlines do sit and take notice of you, but in model railways, I very much doubt any manufacturer (well there is one but I'm not engaged with them), knows I exist, nor probably care, which is the same for me, nor any Uncle Tom cobble and all. The retailers however are the ones who know, but even then I don't see Hattons, Rails, Derails, Kernow or Hobby shop etc seeing me standing above the crowd. Retailers with the muscle to commission their own tools have major benefits over manufacturers, they can tell what sells and at what price, not just by one manufacturer but all of them. Secondly, knowing they could have the mailing list to support the sale, they have the distribution, and lower commissioning cost overheads (no annual catalog, sales & marketing teams, extra HR etc), and finally when they sell, they are selling at a comparative RRP to other models, and so take not just a retail sales margin, but a manufacturers margin too. If we theoretically deconstruct a £100 RRP locosale: that could be £20 VAT, £20* retail margin, £60 trade. Then work back the £60 trade as £10 margin, £10 overhead, £20 tooling, £20 for the model. So a retailer going direct: £20 tooling+ £20 model+ £20 vat your looking at £40 margin*. if your lucky enough to hit the jackpot and do a repeat run, with the tooling fully amortised, your looking at a £60* margin (assuming the £ and China's'/UK's inflations hold out and you didn't borrow to finance it). Consider many models are sold with a 10-15% discount from RRP the retailers selling that loco not with £20, but maybe just £5 margin, it's not hard to see why going the commission route is attractive. Now on a £5 margin, how do you finance a £5000 p.mth retail space in Westfield when your customers know that ebay, mailing lists, Facebook etc all exist sending offers shipped from a warehouse if your price is £1 higher than theirs ? Lego and Apple can afford to do this, as by enlarge that competitive threat doesn't exist. In 2017, I'd wager the bulk of business is anonymous and online, as this represents the fastest, easiest and cheapest way for most people to pursue the hobby. It also is the most cost effective, as business can be a warehouse rather than a mall, If it wasn't there wouldn't be 100k items in the oo gauge category on ebay every day. I'd expect more manufacturers with the clout to be able to do this. How can Hornby combat this, well look at Rail's Q1.. 250 locos off an extra run of production, what "extra" did it cost Rails, an ad on RMWeb, a post on Facebook and an email to customers.. and 50% were sold with 48 hours at full RRP before the items were in stock. And Hornby, well a guaranteed low risk sale of 250 right off the bat shipped in one shipment to a single reliable retailer without any extra "tooling cost". This has to be an attractive way of countering the threat, and expanding this approach beyond NRM locos could well pay off. How can smalił retailers get a slice of this action, Perhaps a smaller shop could take the lead on a run and sell bundles to two or three others as a means to reduce the cost/risk but still get benefit ? - bit like Bachmanns rep's editions. * - I know there's other costs and I'm being simplistic, but this is just theory, roll with it.
  12. look what happened to Model Zone, Beatties...
  13. Back in the 1980's may be, locos today have all kinds of parts visible to the user but a joint invisible to the naked eye..I just took apart a Bachmann std 4 2-6-4t... into about 4 distinct parts of the body, including separating frames, tanks, cab roof and boiler, when assembled it was impossible to know it was comprised of so many bits... indeed I did have to wonder why as it's not got anything in common with other classes or variations within the fleet, The 3MT is another loco made of many bits. It's definitely possible, some DCC locos have switches hidden under body panels, especially in Europe.
  14. They've already been there and done that. They have been closing their outlets at places like Swindon. If they can't make it work at the Swindon Works outlet there's not much chance anywhere else.Concessions aren't working either, I was recently at Hamleys in London, really nice display of Hornby stuff, but no one looking at it. Hamleys isn't a cheap shop either, so it's not as if railways were over priced in that particular environment. Scalectrix had some interest there though. I think the reason it doesn't work for kids, is it doesn't reflect reality and it doesn't reflect excitement. Racing trains isn't as exciting as racing cars. But even to 4 year old modelling mail trains isn't relative.. mail hasn't gone by rail for years. I'd figure tube trains with working doors, coal trains with loading hoppers (remember that triang one), container train loading, maybe even tieing up with other stuff appealing to kids... a Cadbury chocolate train might be a win win, if you can remove the parcels van roof and extract a dairy milk..they'll definitely play with that ! DCC and sound is lost on kids, but station sounds is something they can both relate to and maybe interact with too.. if a train stopping at a station triggered recordings (that maybe able to have the kids record sounds themselves) might appeal.. door sirens, approaching train sounds, horn, announcer "mind the gap" etc. Much cheaper and more relational than DCC sound.
  15. I still don't see why companies can't manufacturer coaches with the frame in the tooling, rather than the roof. From an assembly perspective it's no difference, in fact it might be easier to fit a weight by dropping it in, covering with the interior and snapping together, than putting the interior in, adding the weight to the frame and trying to line it all up without it falling apart. It may even be cheaper when different diagrams of coach have similar sides but a different roof. But a removable roof could allow easier fitting of passengers, lighting and appeals to kids no end as they can "play" with some realism.
  16. Mk3,s have that distinctive sound of air escaping a balloon, not sure what it is but you often hear it in multiples when standing in the station.
  17. They need to finish the 84xxx and 32424 first ! Plus the overhaul queue is quite long :-)
  18. It's here.I know it's not a new tool, but it's a nice release non the less, and my collection of NRM prototypes is growing. Is it me or is it unusual to see Hornby fitting the front end detail, rather than leaving it to the buyer ? Parts bag of headcodes and lamps.
  19. The last few posts are an even split.. No wonder Oxford are taking their time. I don't doubt though, that after this first batch, there will probably be a large jump in price for the next batch.. lights or no-lights.
  20. Maybe they should just do a poll on here.. Do you want them with lights, yes /no. Would you pay an extra (whatever) for them with light yes/no. To me lights is a big yes. I've been disappointed that Hornby appear to have dropped it (to the point I canceled buying the blue/grey rake and I'll keep my Bachmanns.). Not sure how lights will work on DC on the new Bachmann coaches, but if they will I'm in the market, if not, I'm not so sure.
  21. Wages aren't rising because jobs are not being created. They are just being moved. So 100k Europeans people leave the country, 75k take their jobs, 25k jobs disappear as there's no demand, due to uncertainty 50k high wage contractors switch to lower paid more full time..net result wage figure averages show no growth. (Which means the tax intake Will go down, even though more people are working). Yes more people are working, but in general they are earning less and spending more. Then comes inflation at which everyone is a loser. How about trains, It's fairly clear there's been a mass amount of caution since Brexit all manufacturers cut back (Heljan hasn't announced any new oo tooling at all for some time, once the 47xx and 07 are out they've nothing new announced in the oo pipeline). There was an assumption post Brexit vote the pound would rebound, but reality is the pound is in long term decline with negative outlooks, as such again outlook is down. Rather than more new models coming, I suspect the 2nd hand market could end up swamped as people pay down debts. The hobby will enter the 1980's again, I'd wager the foreign companies will leave the market before the British ones do. Hornby will be here, I suspect others may not, Hornby may even be able to be acquisitive of toolings in this situation if manufacturers conclude the UK market is permanently done for them. As for Brexit, this whole negotiation in Brussels is nothing more than a stage show, no huge future deal will come from it as neither party really wants one, they are just playing to the cameras. Small deals on people etc probably will, but I expect the outcome will be a "leave it as is" arrangement as there isn't an alternative... EU decisions are always about kicking the can down the road, and the uncertainty hurts investment in the U.K. More than it does the EU, they can afford to stall and let us continue to bleed, the longer it goes on the more decisions will swing in Europes favour, as its got more certainty, sure after Brexit we may be better positioned, but we'll be economically poorer before it. As for interest rate rises... it's a loaded gun awaiting the panic, when the government is forced to defend the £, for servicing of its own debts and market /global confidence in the U.K. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday, a rise from near zero to 5% overnight will hurt less than a rise from 5% to 10%, and chances are they could get away with "a return to normal levels" with only damage to the housing market as a consequence (and damaging the housing market is government policy right now anyway) this be able to sustain this new rate going forwards.. the £ won't rise..it'll stay the same as stopping it sinking in a panic will be the reason for firing the interest rate weapon.. of course it hurts creditors with bad debts, but isn't those cash reserves what QE was created for ?
  22. Here's the 1st picture I have found amongst the first (of about several boxes) of notes from my late fathers collection. (Author unknown). He used to manage Buckley Wells railway enthusiasts, which collected pictures and sightings nationwide in the 1960/70's that were sent to him for publication. The picture is much like the IRS one earlier, probably taken same day, so , it was probably an organised visit. It was in the November 1967 folder. I'll keep looking as there's tons more, a fascinating legacy to now have and many good nights readings but it may take me a little longer to find them than I thought.
  23. If Asia kicks off, we've more to worry about than model trains. But in reality it's not quite Germany in the 1930's.. China hasnt got a sparring partner, people aren't threatened and it's not about land (as its seawater), if they took the shoals (they have already), but if they pressed to close the sea lanes (which would hurt their economies too), then there really isn't anything anyone local can do about it, not even if they all formed an alliance. China doesn't care about piracy or a bunch of sand banks, and neither does anyone else, it's oil under neath them they want, so whilst everyone stamps their feet, the Chinese won't do anything to close the seas, and so will get the oil they want... (and when it's gone, or none is found) most likely they'll cease pressing their claim again... The Americans have no real interest here so beyond sailing through it, they too won't do anything either and there's no population at risk. Put it differently, if the Chinese weren't making a claim, it would be US companies moving in to drill the oil, it certainly wouldn't be anyone local due to the sheer logistics and investment required of it...which is why the oil hasn't yet been drawn before. Personally I find it more concerning the WW2 battleships in the region have been raised and sold for scrap, including HMS Prince of Wales and Repulse, several Dutch ships have completely gone from the sea bed ! Due to their proximity to land. If the local navy can't protect its own shoreline, what chance have they hundreds of miles out in open sea ?
  24. No Chance.There might be a lot of shouting, but China won't risk its economy to save North Korea. NKorea might be the protected spoilt child in the class, but if it needs a slap it will get one if they go too far, China will do it long before Trump threatens. As always it's not the "what" they are doing, that is the question but, why are they doing this ? .and why now ?... Almost always it's about food, money and recognition, once they get it, they'll put the nukes back in the silos again. You could almost treat North Korea like a typical unloved trade union, sulks, demands, strikes then compromise until next time. The real solution to North Korea is investment, in materials, manufacturing, trade and education, but first the rulers need to trust and overcome fear that opening up brings, but the fear isn't misplaced, after all most communist dictatorships' leaders end quite badly.. something the Chinese too are worried about still. China is the natural country to do this, but unfortunately China's interests are in countries with more lucrative resources to exploit.. Africa, SE Asia.. North Korea doesn't have much to offer (apart from potential Nukes to sell to US enemies, which is why they do what they do).
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