Clearwater

14 hours ago, adb968008 said:

Leicester Central -Rugby , preservation doesnt have a mainline city centre station, and the bridge at Rugby was fantastic.

 

 

by that logic, of Mainline city station, and assuming money for maintenance costs wouldn’t be an issue, Snow Hill to Wolverhampton Low  Level would have been quite the preserved railway!

3 hours ago, Ian Hargrave said:

But in the 1930’s …the age of the much prized Transatlantic Blue Riband ,I’m afraid national pride in the achievements of the two Cunard Queens put Maunsell’s LN in the shadow.Their image in the British psyche was a real morale booster,even after the war when they resumed civilian duties once again. I still remember as a very small boy a boat trip around Southampton Water  and coming close to her….the QM….and experiencing the thrill of actually seeing this majestic liner. Thrills were then of course few and far between. That was 1948…..and I have now to reflect on how the world turns.

When we were in California just over a decade ago, I persuaded my wife we ought to go and visit the QM.  We had an excellent tour of the ship by a person who was clearly trying to become an actor, she was entertaining.  Ship is still magnificent but, per pictures below, is showing her age in certain places.

Is it possible to register a general vote in every mini poll?  I’ll be honest, I’d almost certainly buy, in a not too discriminating fashion, any well produced OO model of a GWR prototype in 20s/30s livery….

if there are specifics, loco wise I’d like an Aberdare, various Saints and Bulldogs.  
 

David

The attitude of large, commercial venues will be interesting.  Are they being more innovative in how they price lettings?  They must recognise that with the uncertainty out there that a large hire rate might put off organisations wanting to hire a venue.  A risk share model to encourage exhibitions, not just railway modelling, might be justified to bridge the gap between COVID closures and the new normal.  That might mean lower deposits or a tiered price/attendee type structure.  Surely better to get some people through than none? (assuming you cover variable cost of opening a venue).  There may also be more scope for potential exhibitors to negotiate with venues at present as to what they'd need to make a show viable from their perspective.  Buyer power has increased!

I think we’re at an interesting phase of this new wave.  Without doubt, infections are currently rising exponentially.  As that’s a leading indicator, we can’t be completely certain yet how that feeds into hospitalisations and, ultimately and sadly, deaths.  However, there does seem to be growing evidence of the effectiveness of the vaccines.  As this wave plays out, if the health services can cope with the numbers coming through AND it allows them to continue with their other services, covid starts to look “manageable.’”   Yes, people are always going to get infected with it, but if it moves to being an inconvenience for most and treatable for the rest, we’ll either have to get on with things be it football matches, theatre, model train shows or whatever with the increasingly known risk of the consequences or face long-term curtailments of what we’ve previously enjoyed.  There will be a tipping point where the risk of the former position is acceptable to both health service managers and the general population.  Are we at it?  Possibly.  A hell of a responsibility for those both giving the advice on what to do and elected to take those decisions on our behalf. 

12 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

 

I did steer away from it (at present) as there's too many complexities and variables at this stage. Until we know more on any future policy it's a difficult one to analyse; for instance you may choose not to go to a show which doesn't allow under-18s for example (I don't think that would happen) but conversely there then may be people who wouldn't want to go to a show which admitted unvaccinated under-18s.

 

Thanks Andy and appreciated it's a difficult topic with arguments in both directions which I can understand.  It wouldn't be tenable for me, domestically, to go to a show that wouldn't allow my kids to visit (though I appreciate that some may not wish to attend a show with U18 at present).  Consequently, I'd probably take a pretty dim view of an entity organising such an event and probably prejudice me from being willing to attend or support their events in the future, even post a fuller easing of restrictions.   

David

Thanks Andy.  One thing that I don't think your survey covers is children.  I have two sons who enjoy going to shows.  Given the vaccine isn't licenced for under 18s, they've not (and will not be) been vaccinated.  As such, I'd be very annoyed if shows were to return but only to those with fully vaccinated status.

David

15 minutes ago, bgman said:

 

If these numbers keep popping up I think you might need an adjudicator !

 

 

75 x 7 + 1+3+9

Hi

My interests are probably more 1930s orientated.  If anything was produced, I'd almost certainly buy it as I'm a discerning customer(!).  I'm not knoweldgeable enough to differentiate on different Monsters.  As such:

My choices are: 2, 3, 4, 5, 7

My focused choices of PBV are: 2,4 

David

4 hours ago, LNER4479 said:

Been busy. Story to follow.

 

 

Seems impressively fast.  Did they have speed cameras in the 1930s?

50 minutes ago, westerner said:

Another O gauge offering

 

The Pannier ia a minerva model, weathered by me and the first mineral is a Parkside, an exMOWT, was built and weathered by me.

 

 

 

 

Hi

That rust effect on the wagon is brilliant.  How did you do it?

Thanks

David

25 minutes ago, Zomboid said:

I don't know the political landscape of Amersham, but I doubt it was mostly a protest vote against HS2. It's a bit late for that, for starters, and the route is almost entirely tunneled through the constituency. In fact the Chiltern tunnel is pretty much entirely within the constituency. The southern portal being just on the edge of it and the northern portal is just by Great Missenden, with about 2km of HS2 being in the open.

 

So it's probably something else that's caused that result.

A group of my friends live there.  One of whom was a parliamentary candidate in the seat a few years ago.  Their view is that the people in the seat are against HS2 as they get the noise and disruption, the construction sites and the loss of land but none of the long-term benefits.  The other big issues were housing, and the NIMBY desire to stop new housing in the seat and a sense that the levelling up agenda meant that resources are not being spent in A&C.  I think there's also an element of this being a safe protest vote. 

On 15/06/2021 at 20:30, Pandora said:

We should aim to travel less, commuting is a wasteful exercise, I'm surprised how few can see through the mist,  the idea that you can travel 150 miles in a hour only works if the fare is zero,  simply sit down and calculate the time at work to pay for the ticket, if the fare ticket is £100 and it takes you 4 hours of work to pay for the ticket, that high-speed  150 miles in 1 hour average  is in reality 150 miles in (4+1) hours, .... a mere 30 mph average. 

 

 

Or from a professional services firm persceptive, if they charge £1000 per hour (as they do for senior staff), £250/hr for junior staff, creating an hour's extra billing time makes immediate sense.

Hi

My choices are: 2, 4, 5, 6.

My 'focused choice' is: 6

Cheers

David

I’m not too fussed which ones tbh but would probably (ie almost certainly without fail) purchase any new decent siphon RTR model in OO.

if pushed for a choice, I’d go for 6- siphon J.  It shows up on several of the train formations on the northern route and the only, out of production, kit I’m aware of comes up with hens teeth frequency on a popular auction site that none of us look at never mind compete with each other on!

David

Tony,

A question on the DJH/High level gearbox debate.  Are the DJH ones put together in a factory by a machine?  I'm wondering if the reason they run sweetly is that they don't have the inaccuracies that might creep in, particularly from the less skillful, in manual assembly?

David

14 hours ago, 1andrew1 said:

Getiting the supply chain resolved enables them to increase sales with no extra cost to marketing. That's key to raising profitability and is the reason that many European manques (eg Roco-Fleischmann, Marklin-LGB-Trix, Piko)  still have manufacturing arms, despite this being capital intensive.

Hornby is in an interesting place strategically.  Some, newer, competitors may operate on a  much smaller corporate overhead allowing them to be more profitable at an equivalent pricing point.  Nonetheless, I wonder the extent to which Hornby price their products effectively.  There's a floor price they need to cover costs etc but I suspect strongly that on some lines they are not profit maximising.  If I was Phoenix/a Non-Exec, I'd be pushing hard to look at the revenue side of the equation as well as the cost side.  How fast do some lines sell out? Is there unsatisfied demand or could the sales team have pushed the price higher? What is the mechanic for setting price (bottom-up vs top down)? How are sales' teams incentivised? What's the margin on small vs large shops etc?  How does profitability vary through the product lifecycle (new tooling, old tooling, legacy toolings)? Balance of margin vs complexity of tooling/assembley? Which brands are profitable? And in which market places?

There's also the question of the relationship with retail.  Hornby must be making a better margin on direct sales than those via shops.  I get that selling via mom and pop model shops has brand value (it's a form of advertising) but I can also see why ceasing to sell via volume discounters, particularly those who compete in the 'manufacturing' space may also make sense.  

Great that they are now at least breaking even.  Next step is to get to an operating profit that supports the current valuation.  Step after that is the number that supports Phoenix's exit plan.  A  lot of strategy to develop to support those ambitions.

David

6 hours ago, 1andrew1 said:

Margins vary bewteen industries. Supermarkets can be a few per cent, electricity distribution is a staggering 42%, https://www.ibisworld.com/united-kingdom/industry-trends/industries-highest-profit-margin/

 

Sure and that’s why financial analysts look at different metrics for different industries.  Distribution networks have proportionately high capex and hence high margins.  They’re also less volatile given the nature of their business model.  However, their WACC will be lower.

6 hours ago, GWRtrainman said:

 

You could also look at Investment in new tooling. Hornby have lifted this from under £1m in 2016 to close on £5m this year.

That will have eaten into profit but has not yet delivered it's income and hence profits.

 

Hence they are investing their Gross profit in future profits - that's not the same has making no net profit full stop.

 

 

 

I’d look at the operating cash flow and how much of that is being invested in new tooling and the movement in net cash from year to year.  As @1andrew1says above, tooling will be charged to the P&L when the stock it has been used to produce is sold.  This creates a cash margin that funds investment.  In previous years, they’ve made an operating loss and a cash loss, hence the need for refinancings through equity raises and specialist debt financiers.

If you’ve not been, I strongly recommend visiting Bletchley Park.  It’s a really excellent museum these days with some great hands on exhibits.  I took my boys.  I told them they’d only get a gilt in the shop if they passed the Turing Test!

David

2 minutes ago, LNER4479 said:

Hello Tony,

 

I was going to post this anyway but the recent discussion re older (RTR) locos makes this rather serendipitous. 46245 has a rival!

 

This is a Hornby Dublo original, now over 60 years old. Repainted / renumbered and rewheeled during her life but it is otherwise the original mechanism. But more importantly ...

 

 

She goes as well as ever and tackled this 11 coach train last night, including from a standing start on the bank, no trouble whatsoever! Quite remarkable for a 60 year loco. Makes me wonder whether any of the latest Hornby Duchesses being bought new in 2021 will still be going strong in 2081?

I’ll ask my sons.  They’re 5 and 9.  Hopefully they’ll make 2081 so I could make it a condition in my will that they check this out...

The other seriously fun school lab experiment is to add concentrated sulphuric acid to ordinary sugar.  A brown dot appears, then smoke and suddenly a tower of carbon will shoot out of the beaker as the acid strips the water out of the sugar... teenage boys (self included) were most amused.

2 hours ago, Mike Storey said:

 

Please read my previous post for the truth of this -

 

 

Eurostar traffic is worth around 50% more than the entire Thalys traffic combined (pre-Covid).

 

The bulk of Eurostar traffic is Leisure not Business (57%).

 

Paris- Brussels business only, already forms the vast bulk of Thalys income (67%).

 

 

In other words, it would take a massive step change not seen in any transportation system, outside a war, to achieve that which you propose. But carry on.

 

Mike

on what basis is that 57% calculated?  Is it number of journeys or proportion of revenue?  Given fare structures, might be the case that business revenue contributes a greater portion of revenue than leisure passengers.  Do you also have a feel for whether 43% business is high or low for a rail line?

20 hours ago, MikeParkin65 said:

You mean 'left the DCC Socket in the loco' rather than the tender I think. Agree its a real pain for DCC

One thing I found on the previous incarnation of the Modified Hall was that to fit DCC required removing a lead weight which made a distinct adverse effect on its performance.

1 minute ago, Grizz said:

This is why I believe that the UK Gov / DfT will chunter on making all the right noises about freight off the roads but will ultimately do little or nothing to really address the issues. I truly believe it’s a case of sit back, do nothing and wait until battery and electric truck technology advances and becomes available, then we won’t need railways anymore. If you then ‘pontoon’ electric trucks you get road trains. 25 years ago people would have laughed at the idea of electric cars that plug in, back then the petrol heads ruled the world. 

 

 As I said earlier, we don’t build railways in the UK because they always have to have a financial business case, roads just don’t have that crippling disadvantage, they are just built. 
 

Strange that up until 4 or 5 years ago East Sussex only had one regular freight train. West Sussex had a few but East Sussex only had one to Mountfield. Yet Brighton & Hove area has a population of approximately 1/3 of a million but no freight.

Fortunately now a new sea dredged aggregate terminal has open up at Newhaven and there are usually a couple of trains a day. 

I think two issues get conflated in this debate: pollution and congestion.  Rail can address both but pollution can be addressed by decarbonisation of fuel. There are other methods than rail that could address congestion (albeit the rail network has its own congestion issues to manage).  

I don't think your second paragraph is correct and that DfT would strongly dispute it!  Road building is subject to the same business case appraisal process as rail.  However, road cases achieve higher benefit to cost ratios than rail given rail building is more expensive.

Dry bulk transit is generally more efficient per rail - the quantum of product moved is usually greater and its usually on a more point to point basis.  I think the majority of biomass, iron ore/coking coal/ power station coal etc moves by rail not road for example.