Clearwater

Great video.  I’ve dipped in and out of the Hornby launch video.  I did note a) a direct tie in with Studio Canal on the Railway Children and b) a comment in the start of the railroad section about manufacturers who put in lots and lots of detail.

I had wondered if youtube ran on a different time zone (eg EST not GMT) but in the comments they expressly say GMT:

3 hours ago, The Stationmaster said:

That equates to £59.21 per  metre - which means it must be darned near the most expensive 16.5mm gauge track on the British market (or is it?)

If you believe the naysayers about  the escalating costs of track for the 1mm:1mm railway, again Hornby is only following prototype practice!

I think we’ve already seen the impact of the generation who saw steam pre 1968. However, the younger generation have a different perspective.  We’ve grown up seeing preserved steam.  I recall being told, and it may be incorrect, that in the 70s BR was funny about having preserved locos in BR livery hence some of the fictional ones and the predominance of Big 4 liveries (an interesting aside in that some of those preservation pioneers were themselves recreating what they’d seen when younger.). Certainly my recollection is of GWR, the Longmoor bright blue and LMS reds on the SVR of the late 70s/early 80s.  If you think of the Bluebell today, the locos that stand out are the SECR liveries.  Which we see in rtr….
 

With some notable exceptions, preserved railways operate what they’ve got and a lot of Mark 1s.  It’s sadly not anachronistic to see a beautifully liveried pre grouping loco hauling maroon mark ones.  Hence if you’re a manufacturer, you can argue that you’re allowing modellers to recreate what they see. You don’t need accurate pre grouping rolling stock.

My predictions:

Die cast A4 and Castle.

Possible Silver Jubilee set to complement a die cast A4.

Saint.

I’m going for an announcement that they’ve acquired a load of old toolings from Bachmann and their first new release in the Railroad range will be a GWR Manor….

Apologies if it's been asked previously and I've missed the answer.  Are the cabside plates printed and do they have lipped edges?  Am thinking whether it's easy to affix etched plates or whether there's a lip that needs filing off.

Thanks

David

21 hours ago, Blandford1969 said:

December is for many railways crucial to keeping going through the winter. Whether we like it or not Christmas trains are for families rather than enthusiasts and its only a month.

1000000% agree.  If that revenue from December, the people who visit enjoy the trip and spend their money in the shop and team room and that all helps subsidise the restoration of a carriage or loco, then I'm all for it.   And you never know, the spark of a future enthusiast may well be planted when they see that big loco chuffing for the first time with its polished brass etc.

Its a way of shifting stock at a discount without saying that you're directly discounting and risking undermining your relationship with independent retailers.  

I’ve posted elsewhere but my iPad notified me this morning that those who subscribe electronically to Railway Modeller now have access to digital copies of the back catalogue back to 1949.  Browsing through an 80s edition, I happened on these articles..  I’m sure there’s more of Tony’s back catalogue to explore!

David

Not seen this posted elsewhere, but this notification popped up on my iPad.  Great that there’s going to be online access to the archive back to 1947 for subscribers.  Bravo peco!

David

Have any of the magazines reviewed the Dapol tanks yet?

1 minute ago, Neal Ball said:

Thanks David, what was the general opinion? Given the deficiencies we have observed above.

Neal,

Complimentary on the level of detail.  "hard to believe .. 3D printed".  They comment on the 'stepping' om the printing and there's a comment that it fits the Jinty chassis and not the Bachmann 57xx but it's fairly short and factual.

16 hours ago, checkrail said:

Indeed - just what I've been thinking all along!  But there might be another way.  Did you see any of the mag reviews of Thanet Loco Works 3D-printed 97xx condensing pannier body for a Hornby 0-6-0 chassis (along with various other non-GWR types)?  Almost back to the 60s - new body for proprietary chassis - but looked rather good.  I've emailed them suggesting that many modellers would welcome pre-war versions of classes 57xx & 8750 to fit a Bachmann chassis, as Bachmann don't yet seem to be interested in revisiting it.

John, there was a review in the September Railway Modeller.

David

10 minutes ago, Neal Ball said:

Great carriages, I don’t see what the issue is @gwrrob

 

this might help @Clearwater

 

Thanks Neal!  No idea why it went upside down.  Came out right way up in the other places I’ve posted.  I’ll claim it was that way up to help out our Australian correspondents!

A great day out.  Some, ahem, spirited running from Swindon to Didcot if my gps Speedo is to be believed.  Though no @The Stationmasteron the footplate alas.

Hi

I'm following this with interest.  I know I've been told the answer before, probably by Martin, but am I remembering correctly that the geometry of a cross over on a main line is likely to follow B7 dimensions but the points to a siding are likely to be more to B6?

Thanks

David

Hi 

on dining cars, I vote 1,2,3 and 4!

thanks

david

7 minutes ago, Ian Hargrave said:

More delectation is yours on a trip on the SDR from Totnes to Buckfastleigh  . On Dartmouth Quay there is an excellent fish restaurant which is good for both adults and offspring. Also a boat trip up the Dart to Greenways from Dartmouth reveals the world of Agatha Christie. Enjoy.

We’ve been on the SDR on previous holidays and I agree it’s a lovely railway.  Is the fish restaurant the former station building?  We enjoyed the boat trip though #1 son complained it wasn’t on the steam paddle steamer.  We were all impressed by the way the naval college towers  above the river.

Currently on hols on the English Riviera.  Staying within walking distance of the Dawlish to Teignmouth sea wall and have made several pilgrimages.  Both sons thoroughly approve.  Sadly no steam specials this week as had been looking forward to chance to be lineside as a big express loco thundered by.  Pleased to report that most drivers my sons’ have waved at have waved back with about 50% blipping horn.  Also visited Kingswear and Dartmouth which I’ve not been to before.  Younger son wants to get “a zoomer back to Paddington.’”  A successful week to date!

I'd vote 2,3,6,7 and 8!

David

15 hours ago, Coach bogie said:

Crazy when he will sell you them at his normal price. I came away with an M13 van today. His clerestory TPO is almost there. His new K22 is also ready. I did not go there as I have several built and definitely do not  need another.

 

Mike Wiltshire

Hi Mike,

Is David trading again or is he just selling off what he'd already got?

Kind regards

David

Hi

I vote 1.

I fully agree that something is better than nothing and to make a range commercially viable you'd have to make compromises.  I'd either pick prototypes that didn't get the toplights plated over in BR days or I'm sure a clever tooling could manage some plating over for example.

David  

4 hours ago, 87004 said:

I do wonder whether Hornby will end up going private, owned by LCD?  A reverse takeover as it were.  Not sure whether Phoenix are really in it for the long term.  How much of a loss they are currently looking at on their Hornby investment though...

As our American cousins would say, do the math.  Phoenix has put way more into Hornby than I’ll wager they first intended. I’d suspect that the current carrying value, at traded share price, is below their net cash investment.  To sell, they’ll want a certain minimum amount of cash when they sell.  First gate is cash breakeven, second is cash investment plus cost of carry.  Ideally, they’ll want 15% annualised.  The curve ball is how this investment sits in their fund and when that fund matures.  Sometimes, asset managers hold investments in time limited investment funds. Whilst those can be extended, there may come a point where they want/need to sell to release their own economics of the whole fund.  That could lead to a lower price particularly if some other assets have performed extremely well.

as of today, Hornby’s market capitalisation, ie the value of the shares, is £75m.  Let’s say they want a 30% premium to that( (equaivalent to 60p a share) so valuing the company at c£100m.  That’s a lot of cash for a private individual to raise even if they finance with debt. As such, I’d be surprised if LCD would lead a buy out.  If he got new equity backing, then it would need to be with the tacit consent of Phoenix.  However, that’s probably not offering value to them - better to sell to market with a management team in place. 

I think LCD is early / mid 60s?  My feeling is that he sees a large pay off for him in line with him realising the value to Phoenix.  Perhaps 18m transition for him at that point.  However, if he’s say banking mid single digit millions at that point, it would have to be a very big carrot to stay on.  If he thinks there is more value, why wouldn’t Phoenix incentive him to deliver it?

On 02/08/2021 at 12:09, Nearholmer said:

Looks like he just used Hornby money to buy his old business from himself and wife, thereby paying-back to himself a £600k loan that he’d made to his company.

 

One can only hope it makes as much commercial sense to the Hornby enterprise as it would look to do to him as an individual.

 

Quite but a ‘related party’ transaction for Hornby and a clear conflict of interest for the CEO.

not clear,  but this may have been anticipated at the point Hornby appointed LCD and took c50% of his business. For the rest of the shares to transact from the CEO to Hornby, he must be pretty confident in Hornby’s trading and profitability. However, Hornby trades at a greater EV/EBITDA multiple than they’ve just paid for Oxford.  As such, if the H shares maintain their multiple, he’ll have created value.  Creating a small synergy on design teams has the same effect though I doubt we’re talking more than £250k pa?

I  appreciate that the money he’s taken off the table here through the share sale and the loan repayment is a lot of money by ordinary standards and, to a certain extent, derisks him as even if he makes not a single incremental penny from Hornby, he can be set for life.  But, if he has an aggressive remuneration scheme, he could make a multiple (10x) of that as CEO either through shares, share options or cash bonuses linked to the share price.  From LCD’s perspective, a bet worth making IF he’s confident of taking Hornby to £10m+EBITDA. And this acquisition is a material step  towards that target.

 .