Clearwater

Isn't this what the philosophers called Logical Positivism?  My philosophy is a bit rusty these days but the thing that stuck with me, and is the basis of scientific "fact", that a conjecture can disprove an existing theory and that conjecture holds until someone finds a hole in that argument.  An example being Einstein's theory of relativity disproving previous theories of the universe.  

I think PPE'ists spend hours in philosophy tutorials arguing exactly this type of point as to "what is truth?"

1 hour ago, SteamingWales said:

 

Fingers crossed. At least 2 of the mini batches are in boats now according to the table 

 

Not to be a doom munger but could these be affected by the strike at Felixstowe, someone please explain international shipping to me. Do ships do drop off at different ports and just unload everything at one place? 🤔 although logic would be for the container/containers to go straight to Liverpool 

I think Liverpool gets the odd direct call from the Far East but most of those ships go to the Rotterdams, Hamburgs and Antwerps.  Ships may call en route with minimal diversions to Southampton, `Felixstowe or London Gateway.  Liverpool is better suited for North Atlantic trade but does have feeders into those ports.  It may well be cheaper, think easyJet style pricing, for a marginal box to go to Rotterdam, be transshipped to Hull/Immingham and then driven to Liverpool.

I think the pubs at both ends serve Bewdley Breweries.  Heartily recommend Worcestershire Way.  I like to stop at Highley.  Exiting the station towards the river, there’s a decent large pub at the bottom.

if you have time, the walk along the river from Bewdley to Highley isn’t that arduous and gives some excellent views, notably of the Victoria viaduct.  There’s something special about walking through the woods, hearing the chuff and getting a glimpse of a train.

Waving a train from one of the gates was a highlight! Also racing them along the valley.  Though your child might be a few years away from such fun.  Our smaller chap, at 4m, did stop complaining one hot day when a manor arrived in Highley.  Get ‘em young….

Lining looks very good.... I'm starting to become tempted.  Even though I've the other ones on order.

14 hours ago, Harlequin said:

@Clearwater  We should have had badges, like The Stationmaster did, to avoid all the embarrassing Englishness of introducing ourselves. 😄

Did I jump in front of you and your boys in the refreshment room? I didn’t mean to be rude but I could see the cashier lady waiting and since I only had a small tub of ice-cream I thought it would be more efficient if I quickly used her time. Sorry!

 

Phil - no problem at all and didn't notice any queue jumping!  We can be extremely slow in going through selections of what we want....

Yes - we're all true Brits....

@Steamport Southport Jason - that's a fair argument.  I certainly wouldn't advocate the scrapping of a mothballed loco.  I think the argument is different about Barry condition locos and, dare I say it, plinthing some of those locos that have steamed but are unlikely to do so in the foreseeable future is probably a better use than them gently rusting in an outside location.  Look at the use of the shopping centre in Swindon or the Engine Shed at Highley.  A good way of preserving /conserving locos but I do think some realism is needed around this discussion.  Not everything that has steamed in preservation will do so again.

I'm sure volunteers have put a lot of effort into 7027 and I can understand why to them this is a hammer blow.  However, if the loco really was materially advanced, would the owners be selling?  Somehow I doubt that.  It took a team 20 years to get Pendennis back into steam and that wasn't starting from Barry condition.  Given this loco has passed through the hands of several well-off individuals, I'd have thought that each of them would have done detailed surveys as to the genuine cost and work required to resteam the loco.  That they've sold it on, tells me that they didn't think it was practical in a realistic or affordable manner.

@neal only two of the kids were mine though! However, both mine described that as one of highlights of the day (thank @Castle).  Older one later remarked to me how strange the story of the accident that allowed 4079 to survive.  He was clearly paying attention!  @Harlequindidnt realise we were sharing a footplate! Good to meet you and Neal!   I certainly didn’t need a second invitation to be allowed up…

A great day out and look forward to seeing the Dreadnought in service!

David

The elephant in the room here is how many locos and of what types are actually needed for heritage operations. If we were casting the clock back to the ups, I bet most of the preservation pioneers would be gpbsmacked that pretty much every single (i know some were cut up in about 1980) Barry loco has been preserved.  Rather like us modellers, the loco collection of the heritage sector as a whole is larger than it’s actual operating requirements.  If you’re involved in it, you’re going to be  more hard headed about restoring locos that are efficient to operate and simpler to restore than others.  That’s where focus will shift. 

in the coming years, I think there’s going to be more of these type of debates.  We’re going to see some preserved lines fail.  We’ll see some mergers.  Inevitably, that means sustaining a fleet of 250+ preserved locos is not going to be possible.  
 

David

1 hour ago, sir douglas said:

would you not have any cars on the layout just because you dont drive?

 

Though he more sensitive subjects need to be done carefully, there have been examples over the years of 1 or 2 people crossing the line of what many people feel appropiate such as wanting to do a diorama of the Harrow Wealdstone crash or the entrance sidings of Auschwitz.

 

 

I’m fairly certain the `iWM had a diorama of the rail sidings at Auschwitz.  A good model as I recall.  Appropriate in the context there.  Would it be appropriate at a regular model show? Probably not.

Echo the thanks to Drew and Co. A great day enjoyed by all three of us!

one small request.  Can you make sure we have a day 10 degrees cooler next year???

David

15 minutes ago, Miss Prism said:

I like a 'Big Churchward' as much as anyone, but it is an unfortunate reality that to get one of these compatible with the current NR loading gauge would require considerable compromise, and the 4709 Project's blurb of "slightly smaller dimensioned no.8 boiler from the Castle would not be possible to spot, being a matter of a only few inches in the barrel diameter." is worrying.

 

Not possible to spot? Really? It's the 'only a few inches' that differentiates so many of the Churchward classes. I take my hat off to the preservationists, but a 47 with a non-47 boiler isn't really a 47 for me.

 

Sounds like the GWS has distinctly mixed feelings toward the project!

 

It's like debates about the King loading gauge.  I think the changes to 6023 are noticeable relative to the unaltered 6000.

I've negligently failed to renew my GWS membership.  Does anyone know if it's possible to renew my membership at the entrance gate? 

David

Can the experts advise whether this tooling is suitable to produce in an as built livery?

david

Apologies if I've missed it, but who's making those Barnum resin kits?  Appreciate Tony's comments about the preference for metal but I don't think a metal kit is currently commercially available?

David

7 hours ago, Tony Wright said:

Speaking of metal-construction...........

 

 

I actually did a bit of work on this Nu-Cast Armstrong Goods over the weekend at Ruddington (for the very first time, I made not a penny for CRUK by repairing anything). One loco claimed to be 'dead', yet ran perfectly on my test track without my doing anything. Another was a wretched split-chassis abomination, for which I could do nothing. 

 

I've now found out that the customer wants a later style of tender. Does anyone know who makes a suitable 2,500 gal tender in kit form? 

if I’ve understood correctly, Nu-Cast will be doing a version of the kit soon with the later 2500g tender.

David

1 hour ago, spamcan61 said:

I recall Simon Kohler has stated on more than one occasion that he wants Hornby (overall, not necessarily direct only)  to be a 'one stop shop' for all buyers' toy train needs, but I question the financial sense of having large quantities of low value, probably low margin, sales items. Last time I bought a catalogue, 2008 IIRC (peak Hornby?) the included price list ran to more than 8 sides of A4 in a pretty small font, that struck me as being an awful lot of items to manage profitably.

If memory serves, didn't Davies, when he came on board as CEO, make a similar comment that there were too many different product lines?

@The StationmasterI don't disagree with your points.  It depends on the numbers such as relative sales.  If you're only making 1% of your turnover/margin from the bits and pieces then so it may be a price wroth paying against securing a larger margin on a loco.  Even if you make 50% margin on a £3.99 (RRP) so say £2 wholesale platform extension, you may only be making say £1 per unit.  For a loco with an RRP of £200 and a retailer margin of £10, you can "afford" to lose 5 platform sales before you lose breakeven.  I'd also suggest that how you price offers for free P&P can help drive small item sales.  Eg if free posting comes at £200, a loco priced at £195 encourages the purchaser to spend more money...

If you're looking at the Hornby strategy, you might think you can perhaps segment and take what you want to sell direct in house and leave others to your traditional model.  You could dispose of those elements of the business.  I'm afraid it all comes back to the numbers and how the owner maximises the profit figure.  I agree that a team up/JV with one of the large retailer would make sense.  Use their expertise and leverage that. 

7 minutes ago, Miss Prism said:

 

Your post was making excellent sense until that last sentence, which I don't understand - 'buy the brand'?

 

Sorry, let me elaborate.  Hornby has a market valuation in the tens of millions.  That strikes me as being way beyond the ability of even the largest retailers to be able to buy Hornby as a trading entity.  However, if the entity was insolvent and the IP/toolings/brand name were being sold by a liquidator, then the entry price to buy those would be way lower.  As others comment above, there is value in the Hornby name - whether it is more or less than the Intangible Asset figure is a matter of debate however if you were a shop and wanted to buy the name and market your designs as "Hornby", then it might make sense to be prepared.  If a shop didn't already have a manufacturing arm and relied for say 60%+ of its turnover on selling Hornby, then Hornby disappearing is a key risk to your business.  Hence, you might want a plan.  As @Legend suggests, a consortium of shops may choose to act collectively.

17 minutes ago, Legend said:

In the event of the demise of this company , and the current management seem to be hell bent on this course , someone would buy the Hornby name .  Who knows it could be Hattons or a Consortium of Model Shops .  At the end of the day Hornby is just a commissioner of models with a famous name , somebody else could do that and take the name over .   The hobby might be all the better for it - especially when it comes to supply .

I agree.

If you take a step back, what we're seeing across the model rail business in the UK is a convergence of sales and "manufacturing." (recognising that manufacturing is really design and commissioning of a factory in China who actually manufactures).  What you've got are businesses coming at the issue from different ends of the telescope.  Those with their home in retail / direct internet sales who covet the extra manufacturing margin.  Maybe they're operating a leaner model than Hornby and maybe they have one less leg of distribution charges to pay as they bring goods from container port to warehouse and then direct to customer whereas Hornby bring to warehouse, send to retailer and then retailer sends to customer) and the "manufacturers", new and old, who offer both direct sales through their own web channel at full RRP and via retail shops.  Inevitably that causes commercial clashes, for example Rails/Hornby.  However, the likes of Hornby can't yet cut their reliance on selling via third parties.  

It wouldn't surprise me if Hornby are looking at the proportion of their sales that come from shops with and without online sales channels.  There will come a point where a logical move for them is to no longer sell to the retail trade and run all sales through their own channel.  If I were one of those retailers who rely on Hornby, I'd have my plans ready to buy the brand and IP and move into the space.

I spend my working life on a "levelling up" project.  I won't give too much details for obvious reasons.  I fully agree it is a phrase without clear meaning which is why it's powerful politically.  It allows people to read into it what they want and it plays on the mistaken trope that the south gets all the money.  However, I did recently hear an MP rightly point out that a new rail factory in his constituency assembling new tube trains was a good example of how investment in the south actually means more jobs for the north.

The underlying drivers for levelling up remain.  There is gross inequality of opportunity in parts of the country.  There is a legacy of not planning for what happens next after the carbon fuelled manual jobs have gone and a need to create new opportunities for those regions.  If you don't, you create a pathway to further depopulation where people who can go, do.  Tebbitite, if you will.  As a generalisation, many people who can have got on their bike and gone.  Hence the growth of London (and other cities) and the decline of former coal based economies and a downward spiral is created.  None of this is easy to solve.  Its systematic and requires large amounts of money and investment.  There is that opportunity, particularly around green energy and how it is used as a feedstock for non-carbon fuels for example, but to unlock that requires Government (central and local) to take some risks and use its giant balance sheet strategically.  

A huge policy area but one that needs genuine long-term planning that of which Whitehall seems incapable.  I don't think devolution is the answer either.  Many of the ways to unlock new jobs require national policy and sums of money that only HMT can contemplate.

Gosh - that's an incredible layout.  Reminiscent of the P4 layout of Jim Wright-Smith of Birmingham New Street and the excellent Liverpool Lime Street!

David

Welcome back!

11 hours ago, Willie Whizz said:

It’s all very well moaning on here - and being effectively ignored by Hornby - but I wonder whether their major shareholders are aware of what is going on?  I assume that, absent any other feedback, and not themselves being modellers presumably, they are only hearing the Company’s explanations, whatever those might be, and hearing an alternative point of view might induce them to start asking some pertinent questions. 
 

So maybe find out, and write to them as well/instead!

Given the ownership structure of the group, the principal shareholders will be very aware of the trading being directly or indirectly represented on the board.  They appointed the CEO and I’d be gobsmacked if there was not a regular dialogue.  I’m afraid, though, that the shareholders will care about one thing and one thing alone which is whether the overall net profit (and operating cash flow) metrics are being met.  
 

it’s perfectly possible for sales to fall and for `Hornby to increase both their absolute and net margins.  They’ll also be in a position to directly see what the sales figures are by each channel, how these sort of decisions impact overall profit on a given production run etc.  They also know where the relative balance of power sits between them and retailers.  It will be different between one of the larger box shifter firms and with single shops with low retail presence.  They’ll have a view that maybe they need two not three,  by way of illustration, of the three principal retail outlets.  Having one outside that group will help increase Hornby’s bargaining position with the others.  With smaller shops, if they want the product, then they have to come back to Hornby.  
 

It may be the case that Hornby know they can sell the Dublo models (more expensive, poss greater margin and certainty a higher absolute unit profit margin) and want to insource those to their sales channel but maybe not some other ranges.  They may be trialling different pricing/sales strategies and taking the data to see what makes them the most money.  It wouldn’t surprise me, for example, if something like the Dublo brand became a web exclusive to them.  Merely because it’s always been custom and practice to offer thr full range to all retailers doesn’t mean it has to continue like that.  Say they lose a few retailers?  If a consumer still wants a Bugatti P2, they’ll go elsewhere.  Demand is relatively inelastic.

Taking th example above, switching to an exclusive sales model adds the retail margin and possibly cuts the distribution costs (customers to pay p&P)?  Could therefore widen both absolute and percentage margin. if I was a Hornby major shareholder/ director, I’d have specialist third party pricing consultants engaged to look at these types of question.  This is a low margin, fast moving business.  A relatively small increase in sales margin will translate to a big bottom line impact…

David

Will it be the same, ahem, substantial sized box as the Deltic?

In military history circles, there are some interesting debates about the accuracy of people's personal testimony.  The closer to the event, the more accurate the testimony tends to be.  There is a tendency for old men to a) remember things how they want them to be remembered b) not to want to show themselves in a way they wouldn't want to be seen/perceived c) be subconsciously influenced by the impact of 50/60/70 years of popular culture around particular incidents, a form of false memory syndrome.  An example might be that a veteran 78 years after D-Day confidently asserts that it was a Tiger tank that ambushed them where the documentary evidence is that particular type of tank could not have been at that location at that time.

I see no reason why the testimony of railway men would be any different and, particularly when talking about anecdotes about a controversial figures such as Thompson would be any different.  (in a similar vein, I doubt the veracity of e,g . the Collett/Churchward "hand me an illumination" story).  As such, I'd think a historian should be wary of such sources, including memoirs written many years after the events they describe.

I'd be interested to understand the provenance of the RTCS books.  If they were written for an enthusiast audience 50+ years ago, it's quite probable that they themselves contain errors.  If that's the case, I'd be very wary about treating them as gospel.  As ever, if we're modelling a particular loco, if you want to be sure, you need a contemporary photo showing that particular detail.

David