Unscientific, not guaranteed to be representative, age versus modelled era poll

[Mike Storey]

I find it is incredibly unusual to meet modellers outside of modelling forums, clubs and exhibitions. When I was a kid there were quite a few modellers and railway enthusiasts in my church, but apart from that I’ve only met one, Martin Neild who occasionally edits MRJ and worked at the same place as me for a while.

In fact I know more bus and tram fans than railway fans or modellers, excepting those I’ve met through RMWeb or my club.

 

I used to think that (especially working in the railways, where such an admission was thought to be career destroying), but since I have been in France, I have met several, purely through sitting in the same bar!! None of us knew any of the others before, and certainly did not know of the shared interest, until little by little,our foibles shamefully emerged, much to the derision of the other Brits, but to the keen interest of the natives. Guess with whom I discuss important matters more and more now?

 

Just a quick question - what does the French gesture of slowly, and then more quickly, scratching the side of one's temple mean exactly? Yes, I thought so.

 

Unfortunately, most  of the self-confessed have since returned to the UK, as their ankle bracelets started flashing, or are just holiday homers, but one of them gave me a whole bunch of books and railway bits'n'pieces when he left. But now, one of our brethren on here is going to be just a village or two away, so we will take on all comers who dare diss our honourable pastime, after a couple of appropriate "pressions" (although Chief Inspector Clouseau's chums are a bit previous here in catching drivers on the sauce. Quite right too, harumff.).

[MarkSG]

I suspect the ratio of 'current scene' N scale layouts to N scale modellers is higher than the ratio of 'current scene' 00 layouts to 00 modellers.

 

I deliberately didn't ask questions about scale or (the dreaded) gauge.

 

Based on what I've seen at exhibitions, I'm inclined to agree. I also suspect, based on similar observation, that EM/P4/S4 modellers are more likely to model steam than contemporary.

 

it's the sort of thing that is amenable to a survey, but it would need one that's more sophisticated than the one-dimensional polls found on forum software. I might see if I can hack something together with SurveyMonkey or similar.

[Ozexpatriate]

... it's the sort of thing that is amenable to a survey, but it would need one that's more sophisticated than the one-dimensional polls found on forum software. 

Indeed.

 

A more comprehensive survey is something that requires much more sophistication in terms of the polling instrument than what is available to users. 

 

Apparently 'the Poll Team' from the wishlist survey was working on something. I don't know if they planned to ask any gauge questions. You might want to drop Brian MacDermott a line.

Edited January 18, 2018 by Ozexpatriate

[Miss Prism]

I deliberately didn't ask questions about scale or (the dreaded) gauge.

 

Quite right in my view. Otherwise the poll would have lost its defined scope.

[gc4946]

So far 331 responses are an extremely tiny fraction of those in the railway modelling world - obviously it's a self-selected sample.

 

However I don't know how large the sample size would be needed to accurately answer the age vs. modelled era question.

[Ozexpatriate]

So far 331 responses are an extremely tiny fraction of those in the railway modelling world - obviously it's a self-selected sample.

 

However I don't know how large the sample size would be needed to accurately answer the age vs. modelled era question.

Actually it's not extremely tiny, though by definition is self-selected.

 

Given that only RMwebbers can contribute, and there are very nearly 33,000 RMweb members, based on responses in the range of 15%, 331 respondents gives us a confidence interval of about 3.8% with a confidence level of 95%. 

 

Maths from here.

 

The sample size (as representing the RMweb population) is statistically significant.

Edited January 18, 2018 by Ozexpatriate

[Mike Storey]

Or we could wait an eternity for anyone to ask any questions at all, because no-one could agree what the questions should be? Oz has bravely stuck his head above the proverbial. Deal with it, or produce something better, this century.

 

But seriously, I can see where you are coming from, and a survey of more sophisticated splice and slice, will be very useful ultimately, but the usual suspects, who know all the downsides, are where such expertise resides, and perhaps that is where such suggestions should be directed?

 

Meanwhile, we have this stimulus, which energises the debate.

[FPH 603]

DoubleDeck

Your response essentially supports the view that railway modelling is unfashionable among youngsters, hinting that it goes beyond that, to 'deeply uncool', meaning that those who pursue it either have develop great strength of character in order to 'tough it out', which is asking a lot of anybody, or do it 'in the closet'...

Kevin

This is not what I'm saying here. And really I don't want to go into detail why I wrote that. Don't ask.

[brianusa]

Many confounding factors indeed.

 

Of course the data may be presented in a less cluttered fashion.

rmwebmembers_average.JPG

 

Despite the wide variances, the distribution trendlines are pretty consistent - if we're not trying to look longitudinally at a single cohort over time.

 

EDIT:

 

We don't have a monolithic progression of numerically stable cohorts of people on the age conveyor.  Many enthusiasts set the hobby aside while they have young families and pick it up again as they become empty nesters or receive the spousal "you need a hobby" encouragement.  I was surprised how many people used to write to the Hornby Collectors' Club saying "I've recently retired and my wife bought me the xyz trainset because she decided I needed a hobby". It felt like there was one of these letters with every issue.

 

I had drawn this model some time ago:

modelageprogression.jpg

 

This is not of course exhaustive or data driven in any way. Versus the data, the sketch model overestimates schoolboys but is otherwise mostly sound.

 

As you noted - many confounding factors are present.

 

Michael, currently as a toy train enthusiast this graph seems a pretty good representation of my involvement with trains and life in general although its difficult to equate Hornby tinplate with contemporary trains.  In age, I represent less than a blip and my modelling preference barely more, so perhaps I am not a good example, although somebody has to be last!.  I notice though that toy trains rise in later years only to diminish sharply to mortality.  Hopefully I shall be on a less steep curve.

Incidentally, what do the small blue stars represent as they fit my profile exactly/

 

Brian.

[Nearholmer]

I think the blue stars show each of us where we voted, in case we have poor memories

Edited January 18, 2018 by Nearholmer

[newbryford]

 

Incidentally, what do the small blue stars represent as they fit my profile exactly/

 

Brian.

 

I think that might be your own vote...

 

edit  - SNAP!

 

Cheers,

Mick

Edited January 18, 2018 by newbryford

[Junctionmad]

I do think the hobby suffers from poor public perception of " grown men playing with trains " , personally I left the hobby when I went to uni , and didn't return until two years ag at 56 , even though I had odd forays of modelling along the way.

 

Since I moved house , I'm within range of a model railway club, that I'm now actively involved , to the detriment of my own layout sadly . At my age , I don't really care what people think , so I've no inhibitions about telling people. but I do understand many people's reluctance, in the summer time I sail , and nobody is shy about informing you of that hobby . I also occasionally target shoot , and that like model railways tends to be another fairly closed almost exclusively male activity

 

What has changed are the costs. personally i think this is a big impediment to younger people getting involved, in the 70s, I could fund custom built trackwork and the odd white metal kit from summer jobs working on farms ( definitely not well paying , around £10-15 per week ). I couldn't see any 15 year old funding any sort layout on summer jobs today.

 

Having said that , my impression is the hobby is thriving , our club is at its biggest membership ever

[Ozexpatriate]

In age, I represent less than a blip and my modelling preference barely more, so perhaps I am not a good example, although somebody has to be last!.  I notice though that toy trains rise in later years only to diminish sharply to mortality.  Hopefully I shall be on a less steep curve.

Brian, I hope so too.

 

The hand-drawn model was an empirical guess based on anecdotal observations, rather than data. It's pure (but hopefully slightly informed) guess work on my part. Individually we are all a blip. Only together are the trends apparent. 

[Mike Storey]

I do think the hobby suffers from poor public perception of " grown men playing with trains " , personally I left the hobby when I went to uni , and didn't return until two years ag at 56 , even though I had odd forays of modelling along the way.

 

Since I moved house , I'm within range of a model railway club, that I'm now actively involved , to the detriment of my own layout sadly . At my age , I don't really care what people think , so I've no inhibitions about telling people. but I do understand many people's reluctance, in the summer time I sail , and nobody is shy about informing you of that hobby . I also occasionally target shoot , and that like model railways tends to be another fairly closed almost exclusively male activity

 

What has changed are the costs. personally i think this is a big impediment to younger people getting involved, in the 70s, I could fund custom built trackwork and the odd white metal kit from summer jobs working on farms ( definitely not well paying , around £10-15 per week ). I couldn't see any 15 year old funding any sort layout on summer jobs today.

 

Having said that , my impression is the hobby is thriving , our club is at its biggest membership ever

 

That has definitely changed, for sure. I progressed my interest, on the back of Friday night and Saturday jobs, using Anbrico kits, and later MTK. These were not great kits, but they were affordable. We do seem to have lost that aspect, as crude kits at affordable prices are derided these days.

[gc4946]

I remember assembling one MTK kit in my youth ... unfortunately I never photographed my efforts!

 

Did finish and paint a class 105 Cravens DMU.

 

Incidentally I remember visiting W&H in London where they had huge stocks of their kits (and other kit manufacturers too) nowadays they would only be available at shows or online - if at all - how the modelling world's changed since the late 80s/early 90s!

 

 

[Talltim]

I think the blue stars show each of us where we voted, in case we have poor memories

Where are these blue star?

[Ozexpatriate]

Where are these blue star?

Next to your vote on the poll results summary.

 

No one else sees your vote - I did not set the 'public' flag on the poll.  It's a feature of the software RMweb uses.

Edited January 18, 2018 by Ozexpatriate

[jjb1970]

I think that an assumption that because many people enter (re-enter) the hobby at a certain age this will continue to be the case is a problematic one. I am 47, people of my age and older and probably a few years in the other direction will remember model hobbies from their younger days and tend to think of things in the physical domain. Not only is modelling in general seemingly much less prevalent but to younger people the virtual domain is just as real as physical modelling and with probably far greater potential. I see immense possibilities for rail hobbies in virtual reality.

[Ozexpatriate]

I see immense possibilities for rail hobbies in virtual reality.

The doom of the hobby has long been predicted.

 

You may of course be completely right, but the good news, so far, is that everyone who has predicted it's demise, has been incorrect.

 

Someone may decide to create some augmented reality modelling capabilities. For example, you could populate a model with augmented reality passengers. More useful than Stormtrooper 'stickers' on a smart 'phone.

Edited January 18, 2018 by Ozexpatriate

[truffy]

Do we primarily

• Model what we see out the window?
• Model what we remember when we were young?
• Model a subject that interests us, irrespective of whether we have a first-hand connection?

Data from some years ago suggests that the largest age group of enthusiasts models the BR late crest period, which conforms to the notion of modelling what we remember when we were young since this was also the largest group of respondents to those surveys. But the data also suggests that modelling railways of the last few decades is (by that measure) underrepresented and the number of enthusiasts for the grouping period cannot be explained by witnessing that period first hand.

 

Meanwhile, some of us, of the BR Blue era generation, will no doubt (like me) get sucked into modelling the long lost worlds of the Big Four and pre-Grouping, cos we just love the locos, the liveries, the signalling, the stations and whole railway atmos of our grandparents' era and making it in model form is a way of connecting with that past (imagined) "golden age"?

 

I'm with you on that. Growing up in the 70s, I have no interest at all in 'modern image'. I love the romance of steam, tempered as it is with not having to have relied upon it. So, being a southern lad, I'm more interested in pre-war SR, but with a certain chagrin that GWR had some of the best locos.

[jjb1970]

The doom of the hobby has long been predicted.

 

You may of course be completely right, but the good news, so far, is that everyone who has predicted it's demise, has been incorrect.

 

Someone may decide to create some augmented reality modelling capabilities. For example, you could populate a model with augmented reality passengers. More useful than Stormtrooper 'stickers' on a smart 'phone.

I don't predict the death of the hobby, I just question the oft held assumption that because many enthusiasts today enter the hobby as adults that this will continue. I think there will always be a modelling hobby.

 

I don't see the potential of VR to open up all sorts of new possibilities as a bad thing, quite the opposite. Many of the things we like about modelling, such as creativity and learning skills, will be every bit as much a part of software based immersive rail experience as they are for physical modelling.

[Ravenser]

Actually it's not extremely tiny, though by definition is self-selected.

 

Given that only RMwebbers can contribute, and there are very nearly 33,000 RMweb members, based on responses in the range of 15%, 331 respondents gives us a confidence interval of about 3.8% with a confidence level of 95%. 

 

Maths from here.

 

The sample size (as representing the RMweb population) is statistically significant.

 

With 335 votes at this point it's a large enough sample to generate some meaningful detail.

 

I note -

 

- There's a very sharp drop off at the top end- from 24 (70-74) to 3 (75-79) - with only single members in the groups above that. I don't believe that's an accurate reflection of either life expectancy or the hobby. What it might be is a generational effect related to the internet . The 70-74 group will have been 50-54 in 1998, about the time the internet started to take off. It may be that people who had retired by the time the internet started to become a force never really got to grips with it , and are therefore not represented here. Whereas those who had to deal with it at work, even at the end of their career, are much more comfortable with something like a forum - and a forum poll

 

- The bulk of the hobby is between 40 and 74. We may be missing some of those over 74, but that's a rather better age profile than many will have feared, or guessed at from looking at the visitors to exhibitions. Perhaps those still working have less time and go to fewer shows?  Certainly it doesn't look like the hobby will be dying out in 10 years time as some have feared - the core demographic isn't just the "baby-boomers" but extends as far as those born in the mid 70s. Clearly this scotches the old idea that the hobby would die out along with those who had memories of steam.

 

- The three cohorts between 15 and 30 are half the size of the next three from 30-45. That is striking and worrying, and confirms my sense that there were quite a few teenagers and people in their twenties on this forum when it started a dozen years ago, but they are much less of a presence now. (Anyone 30-34 now would have been 18-23 in 2005). I get the same sense from the crowd at DEMU Showcase compared to DEMU's early days. Again this might be because the people concerned are not on this particular forum ( Facebook groups have been mentioned  and New Railway Modellers might be a home for them) . Or there was a sharp drop in people becoming interested in railways which started about 15 years ago. I'm not really clear why that might have been.

[Ozexpatriate]

I don't see the potential of VR to open up all sorts of new possibilities as a bad thing, quite the opposite. Many of the things we like about modelling, such as creativity and learning skills, will be every bit as much a part of software based immersive rail experience as they are for physical modelling.

Conveniently, I would guess that it actually takes more work effort (and a particular set of skills) to code a CGI representation of a model railway (to the level of a contemporary video game) than it does to build a physical model. I think that will be true for a while yet.

 

Once VR moves from stumbling around in dark googles to the Holodeck then all bets are off.

 

I do think the next generation might be surprisingly inventive with augmented reality on top of models.

[Ozexpatriate]

I suspect that few younger modellers will find this particular thread.

I note -

 

- There's a very sharp drop off at the top end- from 24 (70-74) to 3 (75-79) - with only single members in the groups above that.

 

- The bulk of the hobby is between 40 and 74.

 

- The three cohorts between 15 and 30 are half the size of the next three from 30-45.

I do suspect that this poll may not be reaching as many younger and older RMwebbers, separate from the question as to whether RMweb reaches as many younger and older enthusiasts. (I think we can pretty safely conclude that there are a number of older enthusiasts who might use the internet to order online but don't spend much of their time on forums, preferring magazines or even supplier websites.) Certainly there are people on New Railway Modellers or even the Hornby Forum who don't visit RMweb.

 

Getting age data was key to the assessment, but it was not the purpose of the poll.  There is plenty of data so far to draw conclusions relative to the questions asked that is not misdirected by any likely missing input. I'm ready to publish, but there continues to be a steady trickle of votes each day so I'll let it run a little longer before sharing the analysis I've done.

Edited January 18, 2018 by Ozexpatriate

[Dunsignalling]

Conveniently, I would guess that it actually takes more work effort (and a particular set of skills) to code a CGI representation of a model railway (to the level of a contemporary video game) than it does to build a physical model. I think that will be true for a while yet.

 

Once VR moves from stumbling around in dark googles to the Holodeck then all bets are off.

 

I do think the next generation might be surprisingly inventive with augmented reality on top of models.

Why would anyone want to produce a CGI representation of a model railway?

 

If you could, you should be equally capable of replicating a real one; effectively a more realistic representation of what is already available in train simulation games, in fact.

 

John