Ceteris Paribus

I've been reminded of two assumptions I was taught when I studied economics, about how markets function:

 

The first seemed quite fanciful at the time - the idea that buyers (and sellers) have perfect market knowledge.  Although it was presented to us as a means of simplifying analysis, the rise of the internet means it is now within reach.  When it comes to model railways, I can compare prices, quality, availability and alternatives for anything I'm wanting to either buy or sell.

 

But the other assumption has caught me out: ceteris paribus - Latin for all else being equal.  One of the reasons I've been free to explore my ideas and dreams over the past few years is a confidence that the retailers I rely on will be there.  When I've changed direction, I've sold up and tried something different.

 

Then came the unexpected, shock announcement: Hattons Model Railways to close .  While I also use other retailers, I've done most of my in-person and on-line business over the last twenty-five years with Hattons, including selling as well as buying.  When we learned the Warley National Model Railway Exhibition was also ending, the stability I had assumed no longer seemed quite as certain.  'All else' suddenly didn't feel equal.  I don't know if the model railway market will be affected by these things or not, but some degree of at least temporary market disturbance seemed like a possibility: markets don't like uncertainty.

 

As an investor, I'm not a risk taker, so rather than wait until after we (hopefully) move house, I decided to press on with the third of the stories I want to tell: the Main Line story.  I took advantage of Hattons' closing down sale, and cashed in some store credit I'd built up with Rails of Sheffield after trading with their excellent Pre-Owned and eBay departments last year.

 

I'd already resourced the Short Line / Narrow Gauge and Branch Line projects I want to take with me when we move, plus had bought some coaches and the Epoche IV DB Class 120 E-Lok I showed in my previous Blog post.  I now decided to go all in.  If my dreams continue to include mainline modelling, perhaps I should take with me more bits when we move after all. 

 

The Main Line Story

I've already learned that switching to a smaller scale doesn't necessarily solve the space problem.  The 'helicopter view' in N-Scale meant I wasn't keen to compromise train length.  While I tried 'shortie' coaches that wouldn't look as bad on tight curves, I didn't have room for the nine or ten coach trains I felt were needed: 

 

 

And in H0 Scale I'd learned that even I can tell the difference between a cheaper 'Hobby' range item and an 'Expert' one.

 

A Piko Hobby BR218 I had last year (excellent runner):

 

 

compared to the Fleischmann 218 (earlier livery) I've replaced it with:

 

 

Although I don't have a clear target to aim at, I'm trying to ensure I buy only the items I should now want to keep, not just ones to try out.  I've restricted myself to full length scale 1:87 coaches, rather than the shorter 1:93.5 and 1:100 length coaches I tried before - but was ready to sell on when the project stalled.  These were the shorter ones:

 

 

 

Compared to the 1:87 full length coaches I now have:

 

 

Six full length coaches still exceed my range of vision close up, making the train seem 'long' anyway, and they do have more of a sense of presence.  As for the locos that haul them, this is a Roco model with a very real sense of presence when it comes out of the box - it weighs well over 0.6kg:

 

 

As the second loco I ever had was an N-Gauge Minitrix BR Warship (D823 Hermes), there's a personal meaning here too.

 

In terms of prototype, it seems to me that there were more loco hauled short and medium length trains in earlier eras, running services now covered by multiple units.  I'm therefore stepping back a bit to Epoche IV and the 1980s.

 

It means I can also include some older, very short trains too, such as this railcar (apologies for the terrible photo):

 

 

But haven't I been here before?  Am I just kidding myself, spooked by the loss of a popular retailer?  One thing I don't tend to sell on are structure kits.  And for me the holy grail for some time had been the Faller station kit for Neustadt an der Weinstrasse.  So although it meant dipping into funds beyond my budget when I found one in mint condition at a price I could afford at Elaine's Trains it was a genuine 'must-have'.  929 pieces in a box weighing 3.4kg (unopened, includes sprues):

 

 

 

Now I know I'm ready: when I build it it will be nearly a yard long.  And I'll have to find somewhere to put it.

 

And that's "what happened next."  It brings this blog to a close for now, and probably until after we move house.  I have three stories to tell, plenty of kits to build, and (right now) no real desire to buy anything else, certainly not to sell anything.

 

Are all other things ever equal?  Probably not, but hopefully I’ve swung the odds back in my favour just a little bit.  Anyway, I'm off to the workshop to retrieve some kit parts I spray painted yesterday: we have models to build.  Thank you for reading, and take care.  Keith.