Carmarthen to Aberystwyth

[Phil Bullock]

Feasible - or pie in the sky?
 

https://beta.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2018-10/aberystwyth-to-carmarthen-rail-reinstatement-feasibility-study.pdf

 

Phil

[The Johnster]

Highly desirable given the transport infrastructure and needs of the area, but the trackbed is severed by supermarket developments including a very big one in Aberystwyth, so very unlikely to ever happen.  And this scheme concentrates on the possibility of improving public transport between Carmarthen and Aber, without regard to serving the isolated communities between, which disregards about half of the potential traffic and concentrates on 'railheading'; the area's road infrastructure is not up to this.

 

My personal opinion with which anyone is at liberty to dispute; in fact I encourage this as I have learned a lot from it in the past!

Edited December 15, 2018 by The Johnster

[Enterprisingwestern]

Eeee look Ethel, more money to consultants, quelle surprise.

Also, that's the Gwili Railway shafted, looks like they will be moved to M & M route possibly?

 

Mike.

[locoholic]

Why on Earth does the consultant's report superimpose the proposed route onto a 1-inch Ordnance Survey map from the 1950s, meaning that it is impossible to see directly the impact on the current situation?!

 

Of course, this is pure pie in the sky, but is less damaging and has a better return on investment than the Welsh government's previous flirtation with infrastructure investment, the Swansea Bay tidal power scheme.

[Robert Shrives]

Well never say never - the Waverly / Tweedbank rebuild started with a tomb like this.  Given money options for rural development is about to severely reduced and general fiscal chaos at this time I think pie eating more than likely will be outcome for too long , this is just one of many potentially useful schemes but with development of electricky for road vehicles as an alternative to fossil fuels and horses to motivate rural life perhaps there is no need for a second wave of railway mania. With rural depoulation and mega cities it might only be robots is 50 years who could enjoy the ride ...

 

Robert    

[locoholic]

Eeee look Ethel, more money to consultants, quelle surprise.

Also, that's the Gwili Railway shafted, looks like they will be moved to M & M route possibly?

 

Mike.

Which bit of the Manchester & Milford, since all of it (Pencader to Aberystwyth) is required for the proposed reinstatement? The Gwili Railway is in the most scenic section of the old Camarthen & Cardigan Railway - it is hard to think of another section of disused railway nearby that is as attractive and accessible.

[MarkC]

Comparing this with the Borders Railway is like comparing apples to oranges, in my view. Even the most optimistic BCR cannot run close to justifying rebuilding it.  There's little intermediate traffic to attract (shades of Hadfield to Penistone on the Woodhead) and insufficient commuter traffic, even potentially, to come anywhere near paying for itself.

[KeithHC]

The problem being that the two end points are not particularly large in population or have major employment. If one end had been say Cardiff then similar to Borders railway it could work. If the line was built(rebuilt) you could possibly see a class 153 may be once a hour at peak time then every two hours. Would that ever foot the bill for a new line. Better to spend the money on Cardiff and Swansea commuter services.

 

Re the Gwilli railway the Newcastle Emlyn branch had been suggested,

 

Keith (use to live in West Wales beside the Whitland Tenby)  

[locoholic]

Comparing this with the Borders Railway is like comparing apples to oranges, in my view. Even the most optimistic BCR cannot run close to justifying rebuilding it.  There's little intermediate traffic to attract (shades of Hadfield to Penistone on the Woodhead) and insufficient commuter traffic, even potentially, to come anywhere near paying for itself.

But Aberystwyth is stuffed full of students, who are habitual train travellers.

[locoholic]

The problem being that the two end points are not particularly large in population or have major employment. If one end had been say Cardiff then similar to Borders railway it could work. If the line was built(rebuilt) you could possibly see a class 153 may be once a hour at peak time then every two hours. Would that ever foot the bill for a new line. Better to spend the money on Cardiff and Swansea commuter services.

 

Re the Gwilli railway the Newcastle Emlyn branch had been suggested,

 

Keith (use to live in West Wales beside the Whitland Tenby)

 

Depends how much of a premium Welsh train travellers are willing to pay to be able to go from one end of Wales to the other by train without straying into England!

[woodenhead]

Some interesting ideas especially the single platform stations with passing loops incorporated and commitments to no flat crossings.

 

I was listening to a blog recently about the old mining communities around Cardiff and how without the trains the residents could not get to places of employment. It seems this reinstatement is in a similar vein, it's to open up opportunities for people living in rural Wales where transport links are poor.

 

It's never going to be a big railway but it has a social purpose which has a long term benefit to a rural area.

Edited December 16, 2018 by woodenhead

[Fat Controller]

But Aberystwyth is stuffed full of students, who are habitual train travellers.

They only look like a lot, because it's such a small town..It roughly doubles in size during term-time. However, students tend to travel at the beginning and ends of the week, which would make mid-weeks very quiet. I also wonder what proportion of Aberystwyth students are from South Wales, and how many are from the Midlands and North West.

[woodenhead]

They did mention in the report extending the Manchester to Carmarthen service to Aberystwyth, the would help the English students.

[caradoc]

Comparing this with the Borders Railway is like comparing apples to oranges, in my view. Even the most optimistic BCR cannot run close to justifying rebuilding it.  There's little intermediate traffic to attract (shades of Hadfield to Penistone on the Woodhead) and insufficient commuter traffic, even potentially, to come anywhere near paying for itself.

 

I have to agree; I don't see how even the most optimistic usage forecasts could ever justify the cost of rebuilding this route, likely to be billions rather than millions of pounds (sorry but I didn't read all 218 pages to see what the estimated cost would be !). Just replacing level crossings with bridges, as the report specifies, would cost millions of pounds, which we cannot afford to do (except in a very small number of cases) on our existing lines. And the Borders Railway links communities directly with Scotland's capital, whereas from Carmarthen it is still a fair distance to the nearest large city, Swansea, and even further to civilisation (or Cardiff at least). 

[MarkC]

But Aberystwyth is stuffed full of students, who are habitual train travellers.

Daily commuters? Hardly. Occasional weekends and start/end of term, yes, but that's not going to pay for the railway

[Neil]

Pie in the sky I'm afraid. As has been mentioned earlier it joins Aber to Carmarthen and precious little else. It wouldn't work as a through route from north to south Wales, journeys from the north of England or the Midlands to Aber would be quicker via Shrewsbury, from London and the south quicker via Birmingham and Shrewsbury: it may save a little time Aber to Cardiff but I doubt that the demand would be there. While all railways are good, unfortunately, I can't see this happening.

Edited December 16, 2018 by Neil

[Metr0Land]

Eeee look Ethel, more money to consultants, quelle surprise.

Also, that's the Gwili Railway shafted, looks like they will be moved to M & M route possibly?

 

Mike.

 

Interesting.  The previous high level feasibility study left the Gwili in situ and had a tunnel from Glangwili to Llanpumsaint.  Although tunnelling costs, the route mileage saved and the lack of traffic to/from anywhere along that portion of route meant it seemed to be a realistic choice.

 

The main problem as I see is the geography hasn't changed since the time of Beeching but freight levels have dropped to zero (admittedly from a low base).  Politicians in Cardiff seem to be incensed by the fact rail travel between north and south has to go via Ingerland but don't seem able to read maps. 

 

For £3/4Bn spend they could provide a 30 min bus service for free for decades.  Funny thing is bus services here keep going bust.   Somehow a train with the same timings will be a worthwhile investment?  Given the geography train speeds will not be high.  Given the geography both train and bus suffer from the same fundamental problems - if you run a limited stop service then end-to-end timings aren't too bad.  However they will pass through communities who will scream about paying for the service in one shape or another but not getting stoppers.  Add stoppers to the service and the end-to-end time becomes unattractive.

[Covkid]

They did mention in the report extending the Manchester to Carmarthen service to Aberystwyth, the would help the English students.

 

Seriously ?

The 1232 from Piccadilly arrives in Carmarthen at 1815, add on a minimum of 90 minutes from Carmarthen to Aberystwyth.

How many are likely to spend nearly 8 hours on a DMU on that kind of journey ? 

[melmoth]

They did mention in the report extending the Manchester to Carmarthen service to Aberystwyth, the would help the English students.

 

Not likely. Any student north from of Shrewsbury would change there, and students probably as far south as Abergavenny would be just as likely to travel north, again via Shrewsbury.

[Enterprisingwestern]

Which bit of the Manchester & Milford, since all of it (Pencader to Aberystwyth) is required for the proposed reinstatement? The Gwili Railway is in the most scenic section of the old Camarthen & Cardigan Railway - it is hard to think of another section of disused railway nearby that is as attractive and accessible.

 

Apologies, it's been a while since I researched the area, the grey matter has clogged! I meant the LNWR line to Llandeilo.

 

Mike.

[The Johnster]

The road network is completely inadequate even for the low amount of local traffic; slow, windy, steep hills, narrow, and overwhelmed by tourist traffic for 3 months of every year.  Anyone who has to endure it on a daily basis can see the argument for a rail service to relieve the pressure, but a rail service will not have much impact unless it serves local stops, in which case the journey times will be excessive.  It is difficult for those who are not familiar with the area to envisage the problems; there are no big mountains to cross, and several centres of population that are reasonably large by rural Welsh standards linked; why does it take so long to get from Carmarthen to Aberystwyth?

 

Well, there may be no big mountains, but there are plenty of hills and they are very steep sided.  Narrow winding river valleys provide the routes for transport networks that end in steep climbs out or tunnels through the ends of them, while enforcing sharp curvature, low speeds. and villages that look pretty but are a nightmare to drive a lorry or bus through and next to impossible to bypass without cutting half a mountain away!  2 hours to do 40 miles, come on, but this is the reality and impose summer traffic and some roadworks on top and it can be longer!

 

Since the railway closed, actually because of a landslip which enabled WR to get rid of the cash hole without too much opposition, the need for local villagers without cars to rely on public transport has increased; village shops, banks, surgeries, offices and pubs have closed in their droves and everybody wants to get to Tesco's in Aber or Newcastle Emlyn, or Carmarthen; the character of the villages has changed and they are much less self sufficient.  The hospitals have been centralised at the ends of the route (if you can centralise something at the ends!) and a very large area depends on them.

 

I once (back in the 70s) took a bus from Aberystwyth to Carmarthen to catch a train home to Cardiff.  Left Aber 17.15, arrived Carmarthen 21.10, driven on to platform as the only passenger and wanting to connect with the up Milford Haven-Bristol TPO.  Journey time 3 hours 55 minutes, 2 changes of bus, and a visit to Davies of Pencader's garage to fuel up!  Great fun but I wouldn't like to do this on a daily basis!  The roads have not changed much except for Carmarthen's bypass since then, but they have got busier.

[Metr0Land]

Unless I'm missing it there's no mention of where Abergwili Road crosses the A40 just east of Carmarthen?

https://www.google.com/maps/@51.8657129,-4.2839709,3a,75y,32.05h,91.6t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1shEDOinNdhdwSc8WndsTymg!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

 

In the previous report I believe this was uncosted but said to be significant, should the overbridge need to be replaced.  The A40 runs along part of the old trackbed here just by the old Abergwili Junction.  The earlier report said they'd looked at it and believed in was just possible to burrow under the left hand arch, probably with tight clearance and restricted line speed.  I was sceptical but given they'd at least thought about it, was happy it wasn't being swept under the carpet.  Am happy to be corrected but this report doesn't seem to consider the implications of getting the line through this stretch? 

[Enterprisingwestern]

The road network is completely inadequate even for the low amount of local traffic; slow, windy, steep hills, narrow, and overwhelmed by tourist traffic for 3 months of every year.  Anyone who has to endure it on a daily basis can see the argument for a rail service to relieve the pressure, but a rail service will not have much impact unless it serves local stops, in which case the journey times will be excessive.  It is difficult for those who are not familiar with the area to envisage the problems; there are no big mountains to cross, and several centres of population that are reasonably large by rural Welsh standards linked; why does it take so long to get from Carmarthen to Aberystwyth?

 

Well, there may be no big mountains, but there are plenty of hills and they are very steep sided.  Narrow winding river valleys provide the routes for transport networks that end in steep climbs out or tunnels through the ends of them, while enforcing sharp curvature, low speeds. and villages that look pretty but are a nightmare to drive a lorry or bus through and next to impossible to bypass without cutting half a mountain away!  2 hours to do 40 miles, come on, but this is the reality and impose summer traffic and some roadworks on top and it can be longer!

 

Since the railway closed, actually because of a landslip which enabled WR to get rid of the cash hole without too much opposition, the need for local villagers without cars to rely on public transport has increased; village shops, banks, surgeries, offices and pubs have closed in their droves and everybody wants to get to Tesco's in Aber or Newcastle Emlyn, or Carmarthen; the character of the villages has changed and they are much less self sufficient.  The hospitals have been centralised at the ends of the route (if you can centralise something at the ends!) and a very large area depends on them.

 

I once (back in the 70s) took a bus from Aberystwyth to Carmarthen to catch a train home to Cardiff.  Left Aber 17.15, arrived Carmarthen 21.10, driven on to platform as the only passenger and wanting to connect with the up Milford Haven-Bristol TPO.  Journey time 3 hours 55 minutes, 2 changes of bus, and a visit to Davies of Pencader's garage to fuel up!  Great fun but I wouldn't like to do this on a daily basis!  The roads have not changed much except for Carmarthen's bypass since then, but they have got busier.

 

Daviers of Pencader, got some early 70's pics from there, plus the various vehicles strewn about the countryside near to drivers homes ready for the school runs!

 

Mike.

[The Stationmaster]

They did mention in the report extending the Manchester to Carmarthen service to Aberystwyth, the would help the English students.

 

That won't go down very well with the folk living west of Carmarthen who currently use those trains!!

 

The most amusing part of the report that I looked at was the nice simple graph showing estimated usage in relation to local population, particularly at intermediate stations  which shows relatively tiny populations.  Overall the southern end (Lampeter and south) might stand a chance but as a through rail route making economic sense they might as well forget it as it would require massive capital support followed by continuing revenue support forever and a day.  

[The Johnster]

I have to comment that the economic impracticality of this proposal seemed a given to me even before Mike Stationmaster's comment; I absolutely agree with Mike, who has considerable experience in this field and should be listened to IMHO; I would love to see this route resuscitated but the only way it can be done as far as I can see is as a heavily loss making social railway with no hope of even coming close to paying it's way.  If it's going to cost that much, you may as well let the passengers travel free, the only way you'll fill the trains!