Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[Anglian]

The released figures don't show the actual spread of the virus, only reported cases. It's possible that thousands of folks have it already or have recovered from it but with only minor symptoms so they are putting it down to a cold or another type of flu virus. The official figures may yet go up dramatically.

 

 

[jjb1970]

9 minutes ago, Anglian said:

The released figures don't show the actual spread of the virus, only reported cases. It's possible that thousands of folks have it already or have recovered from it but with only minor symptoms so they are putting it down to a cold or another type of flu virus. The official figures may yet go up dramatically.

 

 

 

I think that's why health agencies are saying that the mortality rates need to be treated with caution, aside from the fact that mortality is related to age and pre-existing medical conditions the infection rate is also subject to revision as health agencies gain more knowledge.

[woodenhead]

8 minutes ago, Anglian said:

The released figures don't show the actual spread of the virus, only reported cases. It's possible that thousands of folks have it already or have recovered from it but with only minor symptoms so they are putting it down to a cold or another type of flu virus. The official figures may yet go up dramatically.

 

 

It likely will go up, but we've a population of 66m.

 

Current cases (known) 373 - this is 0.001% of the population

If 373 was 1% of the actual cases then the infected would be 37300 which is 0.06% of the population.

if 373 was 0.01% of the actual cases then the infected would be 3.7m or 5.6% of the population.

 

Containment of the virus is more about keeping it away from those more likely to get into real difficulties and also not to overwhelm the health service and a vaccine when ready will be directed at the elderly and those with known conditions not the mass population.

[Ron Ron Ron]

12 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

It likely will go up, but we've a population of 66m......

 

Sorry for the slight pedantry, but that figure was passed 3 years ago.

The UK population is estimated to have passed 67m last year and will be closer to 68m by the end of this year.

The ONS mid year stats for last year will be released in June or July this year.

Some might say, “oh, so what, that’s only a million”, but think about the population sizes of U.K. cities.

One and a half million is a heck of a lot of people

Sorry about that folks.

 

 

.

Edited March 11, 2020 by Ron Ron Ron

[beast66606]

17 minutes ago, woodenhead said:

It likely will go up, but we've a population of 66m.

 

Current cases (known) 373 - this is 0.001% of the population

If 373 was 1% of the actual cases then the infected would be 37300 which is 0.06% of the population.

if 373 was 0.01% of the actual cases then the infected would be 3.7m or 5.6% of the population.

 

Containment of the virus is more about keeping it away from those more likely to get into real difficulties and also not to overwhelm the health service and a vaccine when ready will be directed at the elderly and those with known conditions not the mass population.

 

When I tried to point that out I got "experts know better than you" thrown at me - today two health experts, one on ITV and one on Radio 5 said basically the same thing -  the number of cases known and the numbers who actually have the virus are <probably> two, possibly very, different things so the morbidity rates and mortality rate figures are probably skewed, possibly by quite a bit and because it's a new virus we can only go on current figures, we have no history to look at.

 

Edited March 11, 2020 by beast66606

[Ravenser]

1 hour ago, Legend said:

 

 

I have a feeling you maybe correct and there and that it is too late . Generally I think the Govt has got it right and trying to walk the line between making sure prepared and causing panic . I understand they are trying to flatten and lengthen the curve of the infection rate , so it can be dealt with by the NHS better .  But where they are lacking is in advice . While not going into Italian lockdown , I would be saying to people avoid unnecessary travel . I just cancelled a holiday to Vietnam  based on information about a flight that went out on March 2nd . But its my decision and loss . But really what are the govt doing ?  They should have looked at that and other circumstances and advised not to travel .  I've said before there are now 2 cases of Covid 19 in Shetland . They were people coming back from Northern Italy . But how did they get there . Flight through Heathrow / Glasgow/Shetland or up to Aberdeen and Ferry from there ? They must have been in contact with scores of people , who  are then in contact with scores more , and it goes on ....................   So we really should be stopping unnecessary travel .  And I'm sorry having people travel in for the Cheltenham Festival is just mad.

 

 

 

 

The problem is that it's now not just Italy , its also France, Spain, Switzerland the Benelux and Germany . None of which are under travel advisories at all . Not to mention the USA

 

Beyond a certain point you can't contain it, you can't shut down all the possible contacts, you can't test everyone self-isolating:  NHS test capacity increased  You can't refuse to let British nationals back into the country just because a handful may be infected - and it's British people returning from abroad we are basically talking about

 

Given the scale of the spread outside Britain there's now no realistic chance of preventing an outbreak here. But thus far we don't have one - and there's every reason to believe that our testing is at least as vigourous , if not more so , than in other countries , so comparing case-numbers is comparing apples with apples. The number of sparks landing is rapidly increasing - but so far  we don't have a fire, and I do feel strongly that repeatedly claiming that we do, we do, we do, and that everyone else is getting it right and we're getting it all wrong is not responsible.

 

Closing the schools will be very disruptive - not least of the NHS - and once they are closed it won't be for a couple of weeks only . It may make sense to close the schools in an area with an outbreak, rather than nationally all at once. And given that students go away to university, closing a university simply disperses a body of potentially infected people right across the country. That said, I really don't expect schools and universities to reopen after the Easter break - and I wonder what will happen to exams this year, if the summer term simply doesn't happen.

 

 "Avoid unnecessary travel" is one thing . "Fill in a form before you are allowed to drive your car/get in a train, and please hand it to this soldier with an assault rifle patrolling the streets , or he will arrest you" smells of panic and overkill, and has serious repercussions

 

Stopping travel has significant implications for movement of goods . No passenger flights = no airfreight (I'm told there are no cargo freighter flights to Italy). If trucks can't move outside the province (which I've heard about Italy) - that has serious implications for supply of everything. We've recently heard a lot about the potentially severe effect of delays at Dover-Calais. Shutting down air travel across Europe and seriously restricting road movements for several months would have huge implications for Continental Europe. (We already have some idea what the effect could be for us from Brexit planning)

[sharris]

3 minutes ago, Ravenser said:

The problem is that it's now not just Italy , its also France, Spain, Switzerland the Benelux and Germany . None of which are under travel advisories at all... 

 

This morning I got an email from Eurostar suggesting I might like to go to Paris or Brussels for £29 - I think I might give that a miss right now! 

 

[Guest Lyonesse]

2 hours ago, adb968008 said:

I lost my father to a H virus, Ive suffered something broadly similar.

I humbly apologise for being scared.

 

ive taken a lot of hits and a lot of insensitive comments in this thread.

I hope you are all right and I wish you the best

 

I will retire from the thread and remove my previous contributions also.

 

 

 

I'm sorry we won't hear any more from you.  Your posts have provided useful perspective from someone who's lived through a similar pandemic.

 

Some people --- in life generally, and not just on RMWeb --- seem very prickly about the whole C-19 business and react badly if you suggests it's anything other than a new version of seasonal flu.  To those people who think the press are hyping it up, I suggest you read the accounts of doctors and nurses working inside the Italian health service, which is getting close to collapse and where they hardly bother anymore with patients aged over 65.  It's really not fanciful to imagine that this could be Britain in about two weeks time.

 

OK, the rate of increase of cases seems to have stabilized in the last few days and better weather next week may slow the spread.  But then again, maybe not.  Epidemiologists and other people with recognized expertise are worried.  I prefer to listen to them rather than to "random bloke on the internet".

[Chamby]

10 minutes ago, Lyonesse said:

 

Some people --- in life generally, and not just on RMWeb --- seem very prickly about the whole C-19 business and react badly if you suggests it's anything other than a new version of seasonal flu.  To those people who think the press are hyping it up, I suggest you read the accounts of doctors and nurses working inside the Italian health service, which is getting close to collapse and where they hardly bother anymore with patients aged over 65.  It's really not fanciful to imagine that this could be Britain in about two weeks time.

 

Even if you do classify Covid-19 as simply a new version of seasonal flu, there is one very significant difference about this infection... there is NO pre-existing antibody resistance to it in the global population.  That factor alone makes the impact of this virus a very different scenario to the strains of flu we are familiar with.

[thirty2a]

Makes you wonder about Covid 1-18 though, never heard of them. 

[AY Mod]

30 minutes ago, Lyonesse said:

It's really not fanciful to imagine that this could be Britain in about two weeks time.

 

There's a distinction between doom-mongering and evidence-based extrapolation, please make sure you stay on the right side of the line after you went over it in another topic.

[Reorte]

2 minutes ago, thirty2a said:

Makes you wonder about Covid 1-18 though, never heard of them. 

 

I think the 19 comes from simply because it started in 2019.

[beast66606]

My lad - who is in Yibin, not far from the "epicentre" of the virus is now allowed out and as the schools are closed he is hiring an electric bike most days and enjoying the area. Face masks are mandatory and not wearing one leads to serious trouble from the authorities so it's - for now at least - becoming a bit more relaxed in China.

 

[Ravenser]

8 minutes ago, Lyonesse said:

I'm sorry we won't hear any more from you.  Your posts have provided useful perspective from someone who's lived through a similar pandemic.

 

Some people --- in life generally, and not just on RMWeb --- seem very prickly about the whole C-19 business and react badly if you suggests it's anything other than a new version of seasonal flu.  To those people who think the press are hyping it up, I suggest you read the accounts of doctors and nurses working inside the Italian health service, which is getting close to collapse and where they hardly bother anymore with patients aged over 65.  It's really not fanciful to imagine that this could be Britain in about two weeks time.

 

OK, the rate of increase of cases seems to have stabilized in the last few days and better weather next week may slow the spread.  But then again, maybe not.  Epidemiologists and other people with recognized expertise are worried.  I prefer to listen to them rather than to "random bloke on the internet".

 

 

The sobering point is that the dashboards are showing under 1000 critical patients in Italy. Just hundreds of critical cases have apparently been sufficient to bring the  Intensive care part of the hospitals in Lombardy (pop several million)  to the point of collapse.

 

The Chinese authorities have very thoroughly suppressed reporting from inside Wuhan but some hints suggest it may have been very dark indeed at the sharp end. China comments - a dissident  and Doctor's censored interview   .

 

But total cases in a province of 59 million were under 70,000 and total deaths in the province around 3000 . These things are very much the exception , not the rule . We are NOT talking about London in September 1665, and it's important to recognise that the vast majority's experience will be quite different.

[jonny777]

20 minutes ago, Lyonesse said:

I'm sorry we won't hear any more from you.  Your posts have provided useful perspective from someone who's lived through a similar pandemic.

 

Some people --- in life generally, and not just on RMWeb --- seem very prickly about the whole C-19 business and react badly if you suggests it's anything other than a new version of seasonal flu.  To those people who think the press are hyping it up, I suggest you read the accounts of doctors and nurses working inside the Italian health service, which is getting close to collapse and where they hardly bother anymore with patients aged over 65.  It's really not fanciful to imagine that this could be Britain in about two weeks time.

 

OK, the rate of increase of cases seems to have stabilized in the last few days and better weather next week may slow the spread.  But then again, maybe not.  Epidemiologists and other people with recognized expertise are worried.  I prefer to listen to them rather than to "random bloke on the internet".

 

I'm sorry if my message about the rate of increase slowing was seen as some form of pandemic denial - because it wasn't meant in that way at all. 

 

I was just feeling a little more optimistic this morning when I saw the figures and was unsure if everyone had access to the day by day new cases, which I find very useful from a personal health projection point of view. 

 

I intend to make no speculative forecasts on the numbers into the future, but I do look at the daily figures purely for selfish reasons as explained in an earlier post.

[HonestTom]

43 minutes ago, Lyonesse said:

I'm sorry we won't hear any more from you.  Your posts have provided useful perspective from someone who's lived through a similar pandemic.

 

Some people --- in life generally, and not just on RMWeb --- seem very prickly about the whole C-19 business and react badly if you suggests it's anything other than a new version of seasonal flu.  To those people who think the press are hyping it up, I suggest you read the accounts of doctors and nurses working inside the Italian health service, which is getting close to collapse and where they hardly bother anymore with patients aged over 65.  It's really not fanciful to imagine that this could be Britain in about two weeks time.

 

OK, the rate of increase of cases seems to have stabilized in the last few days and better weather next week may slow the spread.  But then again, maybe not.  Epidemiologists and other people with recognized expertise are worried.  I prefer to listen to them rather than to "random bloke on the internet".

 

I'm quite prickly about it because I work for the NHS, where we have to deal with the actual reality of it. Doom-mongering is counter-productive. The simple fact is, we don't know what's going to happen. At all. The person saying "oh my goodness everyone's gonna die it'll be like 28 Days Later only worse" is no wiser than the person saying "it's just like the flu." Except the former is preventing me from getting my work done because some public-spirited citizen has stolen our hygiene supplies.

Edited March 11, 2020 by HonestTom

[Guest Lyonesse]

6 minutes ago, jonny777 said:

 

I'm sorry if my message about the rate of increase slowing was seen as some form of pandemic denial - because it wasn't meant in that way at all. 

 

 

No need to apologise, I'd noticed the change and was starting to feel optimistic myself.  "Hope springs eternal..." etc.

 

Moderator:  I really wasn't trying to predict the future, only to express regret that the discussion had taken a turn such that our friend adb968008 had felt compelled to withdraw.

[AY Mod]

4 minutes ago, Lyonesse said:

I really wasn't trying to predict the future

 

Well it didn't stop you putting your crystal balls on the table like you did in the York topic which was certainly not the place to bring out your glass plums.

  

On 07/03/2020 at 15:22, Lyonesse said:

But you do the maths and predict how many cases there will be in a few weeks time.

 

So let's stop doing that please.

[AY Mod]

2 hours ago, AY Mod said:

 

I would think that is an addition of 10 cases which were reported separately via the media after the total of 373 was issued yesterday afternoon. The daily and cumulative figure up to 09.00 seems to get released around 14.00-15.00 each day so I would imagine those 10 will be included in this afternoon's update.

 

The figure up to 09.00 today has moved to 456, an increase of 83 in total for the previous 24 hours.

 

 

[Chamby]

Today’s budget shows how seriously the government is taking this virus.  When did you last hear a chancellor say that there were unlimited funds being made available to the health service to tackle a problem?  

[Guest Lyonesse]

10 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

 

Well it didn't stop you putting your crystal balls on the table like you did in the York topic which was certainly not the place to bring out your glass plums.

 

It's possible that remark was mean humorously, but it comes across as mildy offensive.

 

Since I am attracting hostile comments I shall withdraw from this thread.  As soon as I can work out how, I shall probably delete my account.

[HonestTom]

1 minute ago, Chamby said:

Today’s budget shows how seriously the government is taking this virus.  When did you last hear a chancellor say that there were unlimited funds being made available to the health service to tackle a problem?  

 

That's because it's having an economic impact. It's easy to get politicians to sit up and take notice when things are likely to hit them in the wallet.

[AY Mod]

7 minutes ago, AY Mod said:

The figure up to 09.00 today has moved to 456, an increase of 83 in total for the previous 24 hours.

 

I think it will be sensible for people to prepare to see a higher than usual figure in the next day or so as there's a move to speed up the returning of any positive results (within 24 hours for most) which may distort trends - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51814874 so be cautious with any alarm.

[AY Mod]

7 minutes ago, Lyonesse said:

 it comes across as mildy offensive.

 

Oh boo hoo; you didn't seem to worry about bringing fear into a club's show topic which I find more repugnant and it certainly did offend some connected with the event.

  

7 minutes ago, Lyonesse said:

As soon as I can work out how, I shall probably delete my account.

 

It's an Admin function to stop people blowing their own toes off; just let me know if you want me to delete it.

[jjb1970]

24 minutes ago, Chamby said:

Today’s budget shows how seriously the government is taking this virus.  When did you last hear a chancellor say that there were unlimited funds being made available to the health service to tackle a problem?  

 

The economic impact is a separate but linked matter to the virus outbreak itself. It has been obvious for a few weeks that the cost to the global economy of this outbreak would be significant. The economic impacts are the result of disruption to supply chains, trade, staff getting to work etc and perhaps general societal reactions, those impacts (at least to date) are disproportionate to the medical problems. It's a complex issue, I have been told by certain medical agencies that improvements in local air quality and reductions in related health impacts could outweigh the negative impacts of the virus (although no doubt things will very quickly return to normal.