Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[LBRJ]

2 hours ago, NIK said:

Hi,

 

There could be all sorts of reasons for more individual road journeys. It was six days since the UK 'every home lockdown' and the government I think recommended doing a weekly shop. Also some businesses and new volunteer organisations have been using people to do new shifts and in 2020's Britain that can lead to people using a car to do those shifts.

 

Also some people may have been coming out of specialised lockdown yesterday.

 

Maybe the risks of doing a car journey need to be considered. I guess that will need to involve the latest health info, human factors, increase in infection/contamination during a normal journey, chances of car breaking down, consequences of road accidents multiplied by probability of different types of road accident, percentage of emergency staff available to deal with road accidents etc. As there is no analogue in UK history to this crisis.

 

Take care.

 

Nick

 

Fair enough, in general

But

If you are coming toward my house from the west, you either live in one of about 4 dozen houses or you have travelled quite a long way...The next settlement of any size is on the other side of the Pennines, and the villages in the Hope Valley have other, better routes into the City.

or you are being chased by a Derbyshire Police drone, as seen on TV recently.

[NIK]

3 hours ago, monkeysarefun said:

 

There are a lot of variables such as those you mentioned - for example a younger population would be less of a drain on health services. I'm trying to find the ratio of cases requiring hospitalisation here, I did read it last week and it was  remarkably  low -  and Australia has quite a high average age. I can't find it now unfortunately but again I think our testing regime (over 261,000 tests to date on a population of 25 mill.) is helping both by isolating cases and their contacts early, and by giving more accurate numbers re likely hospital resource requirements etc.

Hi,

 

Another factor might be the number of underground railway lines of various types in London and the large number of interchange stations/transport hubs. I saw a TV programme about Sydney's commuter lines and appeared they were mainly above ground and there was less enclosed interchange points.

Also space is at a premium in the UK especially in the most populous areas so more people may have got close enough to others to get infected. Also the UK is coming out of winter and Australia is going towards autumn so may not have so many coughs and sneezes.

 

Germany may have a more efficient public transport system than the UK with greater carriage space per head so virus exposure time and distance between travellers may result in less infections in a short time.

 

It may turn out that the distance between people is critical - I haven't seen any scientific info on this - it may be impossible to collect this information as deliberate infection of people is unethical and there may be no quick test at the moment for virus presence on surfaces.

 

Take care.

 

Nick

Edited April 2, 2020 by NIK

[NIK]

3 minutes ago, Lantavian said:

 

Take a step back for a moment.

 

Yes, it looks like he is at work. 

 

But he is not actually working. He's not cutting up a dead body, is he?

 

Can you see any blood on the tools or on his gloves or gown?

 

So we don't know if that is how he would actually dress when cutting up a body.

 

This is a posed portrait of a man at his workplace.  

 

Further, the article says he's a doctor, a professor, and he's director of an institute of forensic medicine in Germany; he examines all bodies of people suspected of carrying the coronavirus.

 

So perhaps the doctor is better at assessing the risks involved in wearing that mask in that particular room at that time than you are?

 

(We don't even know if the body in the background is of a person who was suspecting of carrying coronavirus. Given the high-level of protection and safety that medical personnel use when dealing with covid-19 patients, I suspect it isn't.)

 

 

 

 

 

Hi,

 

Yes, the 'instruments' on the table are DIY tools, hairdressers scissors and a kitchen ladle.

 

No scalpels, no motorised surgical saws.

 

The morgue scene is illuminated in blue. The foreground is illuminated in white.

 

Take care.

 

Nick

[Andy Hayter]

32 minutes ago, Lantavian said:

The German airforce says the Medevac-Airbus A310 only has six intensive-care beds. 

 

It does however, have beds for another 38 patients lying down. I don't know why those beds weren't filled. Perhaps the first flight was a test flight.

 

https://www.bundeswehr.de/de/ausruestung-technik-bundeswehr/luftsysteme-bundeswehr/airbus-a310

 

 

 

Perhaps because there is no need to tranship people who are not in a critical condition.   The shortage is of critical care beds and ventilators.

 

By analogy you don't take people to hospital in an ambulance because they have a rose thorn in their hand, but you would if that wound became septic and sepsis set in.  

[Andy Hayter]

A thought that occurs to me, that I have not seen or heard mentioned anywhere else, is that early testing may have double benefits.

 

Firstly of course you isolate people at an early stage so they come into contact with fewer potential victims.  This of course is well documented and was the basis of early self isolation projects.

 

Secondly, you probably catch victims when their own virus load and therefore their virus shedding potential is at a very low point.  Health Service personnel who come into contact are therefore much less likely to become heavily exposed along with everyone else.

Edited April 2, 2020 by Andy Hayter
typo

[Ozexpatriate]

5 hours ago, kevinlms said:

Yes, as the US is finding out, the claims made in some quarters that it is something that effects only those of Asian origin, is truly starting to bite them on the rear.

I'm not sure what you mean here. This is NOT being reported in the US - even by wing nuts. I don't recall this ever being said in US media.

 

5 hours ago, kevinlms said:

Business as usual by Easter, was a hope by Trump. They'll be lucky to have the increases of infection not skyrocketing by then.

Last week's news. The POTUS is finally taking things seriously and indicated on Monday that best case US fatalities will be 100,000 (possibly 240,000) with the peak around Easter. The recommendations for "stay home" orders are extended through the end of April.

 

5 hours ago, kevinlms said:

Nor is the White House helping, by claiming that China's statistics 'are faked'. Maybe they are, but the US needs to get it's own act into gear, instead of denying.

Again, I'm not sure what you mean by "faked". Current news is that an intelligence briefing to the POTUS suggests that Chinese fatality statistics were greatly under-reported, particularly in Wuhan. Earlier denial that this crisis is very real is essentially over, at least yesterday and today. (Bear in mind that mutually conflicting consecutive sentences from behind the podium are "normal".) 

[Nearholmer]

Yes, I thought that the day before yesterday POTUS actually made a very good speech, talking like a real leader, speaking to his people like grown-ups.

 

Then yesterday that faintly random ‘lets raise another fed-herring about outside threats’ speech about drug cartels ....... it came across as a crude attempt to distract from the main show.

[kevinlms]

1 hour ago, Ozexpatriate said:

I'm not sure what you mean here. This is NOT being reported in the US - even by wing nuts. I don't recall this ever being said in US media.

 

Last week's news. The POTUS is finally taking things seriously and indicated on Monday that best case US fatalities will be 100,000 (possibly 240,000) with the peak around Easter. The recommendations for "stay home" orders are extended through the end of April.

 

Again, I'm not sure what you mean by "faked". Current news is that an intelligence briefing to the POTUS suggests that Chinese fatality statistics were greatly under-reported, particularly in Wuhan. Earlier denial that this crisis is very real is essentially over, at least yesterday and today. (Bear in mind that mutually conflicting consecutive sentences from behind the podium are "normal".) 

I don't agree with your conclusion, but I don't intend to put forward any evidence, as I don't think its helpful at all. Nor do we want the thread to be locked!

 

The POTUS has suggested several times that it is going to quickly die out in the US, I don't think anyone now believes that to be the case.

[NIK]

2 hours ago, Lantavian said:

 

Actually, a lot of the tools used in post-mortems could also be used for DIY: chisels, pliers, cutters, mallets. And the scissors do look a lot like hairdressers'.

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.surgicalholdings.co.uk/media/files/11post mortemnotrims 815.pdf

 

 

Hi,

 

I stand corrected about the instruments. Just the background illuminated in blue from left and low like in a TV or film drama and the foreground illuminated from right side in cool white.

 

'Photoshop' of two image sources or a posed photo for TV/film/drama/book publicity?.

 

Take care.

 

Nick

[Ron Ron Ron]

2 hours ago, Lantavian said:

The German airforce says the Medevac-Airbus A310 only has six intensive-care beds. 

 

It does however, have beds for another 38 patients lying down. I don't know why those beds weren't filled. Perhaps the first flight was a test flight.

 

https://www.bundeswehr.de/de/ausruestung-technik-bundeswehr/luftsysteme-bundeswehr/airbus-a310

 

 

The press reports across Europe only mention 6 patients being transferred and there has been no mention of further flights.

Every little helps as they say, but it seems a coincidence that this effort occurred with much fanfare (media alerted) a couple of days immediately following the disastrous EU heads of government council meeting, where Spain and Italy were, let’s say, very upset and angry.

 

Meanwhile, over this last week, there has been a surge of dozens of cargo flights bringing in medical supplies from China, Russia and the USA to Spain, Italy, Portugal, Belgium and The Netherlands.

Even Ireland sent a couple of Aer Lingus A330 passenger airliners from Dublin to Beijing to bring back much needed medical supplies (PPE etc,). Apparently the passenger cabins were also loaded up, as well as the underfloor hold, with the cargo. These must have been the first and only direct flights ever flown between Ireland and China.

Along with repatriation flights, there’s a huge global emergency airlift going on at the moment, which hasn’t drawn (or called) the attention of the MSM.

 

 

.

[jjb1970]

I don't question the motives and intent of German Air force medevac crews but the well publicised Air transport of patients to Germany is part of a PR recovery exercise as the German government has woken up to just how seriously their image has been damaged by their earlier handling of the crisis. I find it telling that there is sniping at Russia and China for playing geopolitical generosity games (because we all know our countries never do that....) while a lot less questioning of why they had such an opportunity in the first place. 

[boxbrownie]

11 hours ago, maico said:

Talking of autopsies, here's a German Doctor at work on suspected COVID-19 victims. I'm surprised that he is not wearing a N95 or FPP3 grade mask rather than a general issue tissue type. The rib cage requires considerable force to open up to inspect the lungs which are huge in size, hence the tools including chisels and spreader.

The virus must still be alive in the body? https://www.bild.de/bild-plus/regional/hamburg/hamburg-aktuell/koryphaee-prof-dr-klaus-pueschel-ich-untersuche-die-corona-leichen-69776182,view=conversionToLogin.bild.html

Sternum Spreader, don’t need a mallet for that......and no eye protection? Do you think the photographer may have Arranged the picture a bit for drama and impact? I would certainly have back when working on the press........

 

Never let’s the facts etc etc 

[Nearholmer]

24 minutes ago, kevinlms said:

The POTUS has suggested several times that it is going to quickly die out in the US, I don't think anyone now believes that to be the case.

The key point is that, at long last, neither does he (unless he’s changed his mind since Monday).

 

Have a listen to his 1700 briefing on Monday - very clear.

[Vistisen]

On 25/03/2020 at 12:23, Joseph_Pestell said:

 

Highly unlikely. It does not get anywhere near hot enough (especially in the UK) to kill a virus.

 

But, transmission of a virus may well decrease as people's immune systems improve in better weather. So the end result is much the same. The obvious example is flu. Very few people contract flu in Spring and Summer.

Not to mention the fact that is started in the middle of China's summer

Edited April 2, 2020 by Vistisen
spelling

[boxbrownie]

12 minutes ago, NIK said:

Hi,

 

I stand corrected about the instruments. Just the background illuminated in blue from left and low like in a TV or film drama and the foreground illuminated from right side in cool white.

 

'Photoshop' of two image sources or a posed photo for TV/film/drama/book publicity?.

 

Take care.

 

Nick

The background is just daylight balanced lighting through the windows and almost definitely from daylight balanced tubes so colours of body parts can be assessed easily before removal, the “doctor” has been illuminated by the look of it from a warm balanced single source lamp whether it be LED, flash or tungsten.

 

Pictures a normal set up type shot.

[robert17649]

9 hours ago, NIK said:

Hi,

 

There could be all sorts of reasons for more individual road journeys. It was six days since the UK 'every home lockdown' and the government I think recommended doing a weekly shop. Also some businesses and new volunteer organisations have been using people to do new shifts and in 2020's Britain that can lead to people using a car to do those shifts.

 

Also some people may have been coming out of specialised lockdown yesterday.

 

Maybe the risks of doing a car journey need to be considered. I guess that will need to involve the latest health info, human factors, increase in infection/contamination during a normal journey, chances of car breaking down, consequences of road accidents multiplied by probability of different types of road accident, percentage of emergency staff available to deal with road accidents etc. As there is no analogue in UK history to this crisis.

 

Take care.

 

Nick

plus of course add the potential of some 30+road deaths a day  to the already unpleasant reading figures.

[Vistisen]

2 minutes ago, Lantavian said:

 

No, it started in the winter. 

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coronavirus-chinas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back

Sorry you are quite right I have always though of china being in the southern hemisphere. 

[Nearholmer]

27 minutes ago, jjb1970 said:

I find it telling that there is sniping at Russia a

 

I’m not sniping at Russia for an act of ‘strategic kindness’; what I am sniping at Russia about is a long-term, steady, chiselling away at any emerging unity in Europe, using a wide variety of subtle measures.

 

That is a hugely different thing from nations within the semi-United-Europe squabbling with each other, and being less than mutual, when under huge collective pressure.

 

A family argument in the house, as compared with the bloke next door deliberately needling people to provoke the family argument.

[jjb1970]

Winter in China can be brutal, very cold.

[jjb1970]

1 minute ago, Nearholmer said:

 

I’m not sniping at Russia for an act of ‘strategic kindness’; what I am sniping at Russia about is a long-term, steady, chiselling away at any emerging unity in Europe, using a wide variety of subtle measures.

 

That is a hugely different thing from nations within the semi-United-Europe squabbling with each other, and being less than mutual, when under huge collective pressure.

 

A family argument in the house, as compared with the bloke next door deliberately needling people to provoke the family argument.

 

I wasn't having a go at you Kevin, I do a lot of work with European member State governments and the Commission and they are spinning this as a geopolitical game and seeing reds under the bed. Are China and Russia pushing their own agenda? Almost certainly yes, but they are not doing anything that other countries and agencies aren't also doing.

[Dunsignalling]

16 hours ago, jjb1970 said:

There are probably two kinds of people in the world, those who understand the concept of confirmation bias and who acknowledge that they suffer from it, and those in denial of the concept. People gravitate towards media sources that tend to reinforce their existing world view and political sensibilities. Many of those who deride certain papers (such as the Daily Mail, Guardian) tend to be oblivious to the fact that others have exactly the same feelings towards papers they read. Ditto, what is propaganda is news to some, one persons news might be another’s tin foil hat material.

 

 

ALL "news"papers have their proprietors' political axes to grind, that's why there's no shortage of megalomaniacs wanting to own them, and why I haven't regularly bought any of them for over ten years.

 

Some are less rabid than others though any title beginning with the word "Daily" is best avoided IMHO. Those and any belonging to the Aussie Antichrist.

 

Even the BBC tends to come at things from a certain direction, but it's easy to spot when they are doing so and I subconsciously filter it out.

 

John

Edited April 2, 2020 by Dunsignalling

[boxbrownie]

38 minutes ago, Lantavian said:

 

No, it started in the winter. 

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coronavirus-chinas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back

Did you not notice China sliding South? 

[Ron Ron Ron]

3 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

......any title beginning with the word "Daily" is best avoided IMHO.......

Exactly, I’ve not read the Daily Herald for years on this very principle.

 

 

.

[Dunsignalling]

5 minutes ago, Lantavian said:

 

Bizarrely the same company owns both the Daily Mirror and the Daily Express.

A megalomaniac who wants to cover all the bases so he's not the first up against the wall whichever revolution comes.....

[boxbrownie]

2 minutes ago, Dunsignalling said:

A megalomaniac who wants to cover all the bases so he's not the first up against the wall whichever revolution comes.....

Problem is he owns all the walls and all the guns