Corona-virus - Impact of the Health Situation worldwide

[Ramblin Rich]

10 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

Yes, and if, for instance, the UK testing regime changes, that will complexificate things.

 

The Chinese way of counting changed twice, but at least the better graphs mark the change points!

'Complexificate' must be word if the day.

Somone on the radio last week said the country was discombobulated. I really look forward to recombobulation taking effect.

[Reorte]

1 minute ago, Ramblin Rich said:

'Complexificate' must be word if the day.

Somone on the radio last week said the country was discombobulated. I really look forward to recombobulation taking effect.

And when someone manages to bring that about I'll offer them my most sincere contrafibularities

[boxbrownie]

23 minutes ago, Mark Saunders said:

can’t find any Bargepoles currently there must be a shortage of them!

 

Yes sorry, wife said get loads of Bogrolls......I must have misheard......

[Mike Storey]

Some news from France. The "wonder treatment" does not appear to be so wonderful after all...

 

https://www.thelocal.fr/20200331/french-drug-watchdog-warns-of-dangerous-side-effects-of-coronavirus-treatments?utm_source=piano&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=213&tpcc=newsletter_members&pnespid=1OJgt_IBHhWNuoVRRLSa85hqEq5H70cxSoS3TL8

[Reorte]

5 minutes ago, Mike Storey said:

Some news from France. The "wonder treatment" does not appear to be so wonderful after all...

 

https://www.thelocal.fr/20200331/french-drug-watchdog-warns-of-dangerous-side-effects-of-coronavirus-treatments?utm_source=piano&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=213&tpcc=newsletter_members&pnespid=1OJgt_IBHhWNuoVRRLSa85hqEq5H70cxSoS3TL8

 

I wouldn't ever say that self-medicating anything beyond the likes of paracetomal is a good idea.

[robert17649]

49 minutes ago, Ramblin Rich said:

Sorry I'm very late coming to this.

Has anyone else linked to the FT tracker? I have a certain morbid fascination with the graphs.

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

This plots the cases on a logarithmic scale, so if the cases are rising exponentially (doubling every 'x' days) it gives a straight line graph. The slope of the graph relates to the rate of doubling and the graphs have dotted lines showing doubling every day, 2 days, 3 days, 1 week. If the rate of growth is slowing, the line will start to curve down away from straight; if the rate is increasing, the line begins curving upward. Different countries (and certain badly affected areas) are plotted for comparison. You really want a near horizontal line to show no increase in cases.

In the UK as a whole, there is a hint that the line for total cases is easing down away from doubling every 3 days, but the increase in number of deaths is not really changing yet.

I do fear for the US as it's growth rate and total numbers are well above others at this stage.

 

its actually a simple Gaussian type curve, like a thin bell, in normal un- modified populations. any epidemic starts. The problem is that mathematics can translate that into anything it likes, straight lines steep lines etc etc the fact of the matter is that at some point the curve goes steeply up and there's not a lot you can do about it until it peaks and starts down. The up side is that the down is nice and steep like the up.

[Nearholmer]

43 minutes ago, Ramblin Rich said:

Never. Never before, never after. Wouldn't touch with a barge pole.

 

I'm in the "hardly ever" camp regarding cruises: we went on one once, when my good lady was expecting our eldest, wasn't really up for our then usual sort of holiday, and we saw a late booking on offer at a knock-down price.

 

Never again.

 

It wasn't exactly horrible, in fact it was getting on for three weeks of being pampered until literally fed-up with it, and we saw a lot of interesting places, but the lack of ability to decide ones own schedule, the weird routine, and the complete disconnection from reality drove me up the wall.

 

So your thinking is sound!

[Ramblin Rich]

 

10 minutes ago, robert17649 said:

its actually a simple Gaussian type curve, like a thin bell, in normal un- modified populations. any epidemic starts. The problem is that mathematics can translate that into anything it likes, straight lines steep lines etc etc the fact of the matter is that at some point the curve goes steeply up and there's not a lot you can do about it until it peaks and starts down. The up side is that the down is nice and steep like the up.

The number of cases per day may follow a Gaussian cuvre but the total number of cases won't go down, so on those log plots it can only flatten out.

[Nearholmer]

The cumulative cases, without "interference" from actions like SD, or (if only) the introduction of a vaccine, follow  an S-curve; epidemiologists seem to use logistic curves or modifications thereof.

 

The "bell curve" that Robert refers to is the derivative of the logistic curve, and looks a bit like a normal distribution curve, but isn't one.

 

In theory, I think it should be possible to modify the curve, make the "bell" lower, but wider, by very carefully controlling the spread of the disease, and that is what the government chief scientist said early-on they were trying to do by progressive introduction of lock-down measures. But, I struggle to see how that could be made to work really precisely in practice ........ you'd have to keep every individual in isolation, then deliberately infect them one-by-one, or in batches. Practical measures would be more like large "on/off" switches, I think,and result in a much bumpier curve, like the one that emerged in China, but several times over.

 

 

 

 

Edited March 31, 2020 by Nearholmer

[Reorte]

8 minutes ago, Ramblin Rich said:

 

The number of cases per day may follow a Gaussian cuvre but the total number of cases won't go down, so on those log plots it can only flatten out.

 

The total number will too, it'll just lag by (and get distorted a bit by) the rate at which cases are resolved. Italy's total number might start to drop in the next week with a bit of luck.

Edited March 31, 2020 by Reorte

[John Tomlinson]

1 hour ago, Ramblin Rich said:

Sorry I'm very late coming to this.

Has anyone else linked to the FT tracker? I have a certain morbid fascination with the graphs.

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

This plots the cases on a logarithmic scale, so if the cases are rising exponentially (doubling every 'x' days) it gives a straight line graph. The slope of the graph relates to the rate of doubling and the graphs have dotted lines showing doubling every day, 2 days, 3 days, 1 week. If the rate of growth is slowing, the line will start to curve down away from straight; if the rate is increasing, the line begins curving upward. Different countries (and certain badly affected areas) are plotted for comparison. You really want a near horizontal line to show no increase in cases.

In the UK as a whole, there is a hint that the line for total cases is easing down away from doubling every 3 days, but the increase in number of deaths is not really changing yet.

I do fear for the US as it's growth rate and total numbers are well above others at this stage.

 

Our mortality rate numbers today are a bit difficult to read because of the change in base - see above.

 

If you fear for the US, fear even more for much of the Third World, Africa, South Asia, with poor medical facilites, weak populations with poor nutrition and dreadful living conditions for many in terms of clean water and proper sanitation. Not much chance for social distancing in a shanty town!

 

John.

Edited March 31, 2020 by John Tomlinson
typo

[Nearholmer]

4 minutes ago, John Tomlinson said:

If you fear for the US, fear even more for much of the Third World

 

Reading about epidemiology, there also seems to be very nasty affect if a virus hits a very transitory population, groups of refugees etc. I don't fully understand it, but my rough understanding is that:

 

- in a settled population, a virus gradually becomes less virulent over time, heading in the direction of the common cold or noravirus, because the really virulent mutations debilitate, then kill their hosts while their hosts remain pretty much in one place, infecting relatively few people before their demise, whereas the less virulent strains flourish, because they allow their hosts to go about their daily business, while infecting others;

 

- in a very transitory population, virulent strains flourish, because their hosts are on the move, infecting people, until the last possible moment.

 

So, if the current beast gets into a large flow of refugees, then into refugee camps, not only would it likely reap grimly, but it could well produce an even nastier strain, which would likely get out into the wider world.

 

If anyone understands this better, please correct what I've said. 

[monkeysarefun]

8 hours ago, robert17649 said:

It was called (and maybe even the next one as well0 the Conspire-a Sea cruise and i think the ship was the Ruby Princess.

 

Anyway going on a cruise seems to have health implications!

 400 (10%)  of  Australias  cases have been directly attributed to passengers from the Ruby Princess who were allowed to disembark in Sydney March 20 without any health checks despite several reporting flu-like symptoms. Many caught interstate flights. 5 of our 20 deaths have been passengers from the  ship.

 

Currently there are 9 international cruise ships either waiting permission to berth  or floating off the NSW coast, none have been granted permission but instead have been told to bu99er off to  somewhere else, a bit heartless but those are the times we live in I guess.

 

Don't think the cruise industry will enjoy a  glorious rebirth when its all over. 

 

[Nearholmer]

Cruise liners are being turned away from Florida too, even though they have a fair proportion of US citizens on board.

 

The obvious question is: where are these boats meant to go?

 

I have a feeling that a lot of them are registered in the Bahamas for some reason, so that might technically be their home port, but .......

[midlands]

I notice the bearfaced scaremongering is still going on in the media. Latest scare/Boo by one of the daily is PANIC BUY TORCHES AND BLANKETS!!! Due to and email from one of the power companys to their customers to keep certain items to  hand in case of IMMINENT POWER BLACKOUTS.  It seems all the big companys report no problems and say normal services will be maintained despite any shortfalls of staff due to self isolation or just plain sicleave..PANIC NOT!!

 

Roger

[Jonboy]

Still confused how we ease out of lockdown if we peak soon without this herd immunity or a vaccine.
 

More confused how global travel restrictions will ease with all these countries with different levels of infection, procedures etc.

Edited April 1, 2020 by Jonboy

[Neil]

Though we're all hoping for some glimmer of good news it seems to me that looking into the statistics can't be relied upon for comfort. It's widely reported that so far deaths outside hospital haven't been counted in the CV 19 figures and that different health boards have different methods and time periods for collating their figures. There's a strong argument that we don't know what the virus is doing outside the limited sphere of intensive care as there is very little testing going on.

 

Some things however, seem so self evident that it's possible to see what might be happening some months away. When CV19 has been dealt with I think we'll find that the NHS is on its knees. At the moment all efforts are directed at dealing with the Corona virus outbreak; routine and not so routine functions are being deferred. Not only are front line staff working at full stretch now but there will be a huge backlog to tackle when attention can be turned away from CV19. The solution won't be simple as before CV19 the NHS  (hospitals in particular) was picking up the tab for underfunding in other areas like adult social care.

[Joseph_Pestell]

1 hour ago, Lantavian said:

 

This is from the Imperial College London report that apparently changed Boris Johnson's mind about the UK's strategy

 

It seems that lockdown may have to be repeated several times.

 

 

NB This is my interpretation -- I may have misunderstood the report. Anyway, here's a link to the actual report if you want to read further: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

 

I think that your interpretation of the study/policy is correct.

 

I don't think that many businesses could survive that sort of stop/start routine. Think how much produce would be wasted.

[Nearholmer]

1 hour ago, Lantavian said:

It seems that lockdown may have to be repeated several times.

I hope to goodness that other strategies are under consideration beside the “lockdown on/off”, because I seriously wonder about both the psychological impact of lockdown, and the directly-coupled issue of adherence to it.

 

There are probably a few people who are getting on OK with lockdown, there might even be a few usually-commuters who actually rather like it, but a very high percentage must be finding it far too isolating for their own good, or (here I’m talking about families with school-age children) far too pressured to be sustainable.

 

Attempting to work from home in a house/flat full of offspring is a recipe for insanity ....... I know one woman who is trying to administer the local court system, while at home on her own with a 3yo and a 5yo, for instance.

 

What is needed is a way that allows something a bit closer to normality, while maintaining enough SD to prevent the thing going rampant.

 

The other, equally important, issue is the psychological and physical affect on NHS staff ...... asking them to “go over the top” time and again, to deal with successive waves of the thing, even if they are smaller waves than the one we are in now, is asking one hell of a lot.

 

 

[Ozexpatriate]

4 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

The other, equally important, issue is the psychological and physical affect on NHS staff

No matter what, there is going to be a very high rate of PTSD amongst healthcare workers and first responders (fire fighters and EMTs aka ambulance people). I've seen several different interviews with NYC nurses saying "I'm not used to dealing with this much death".

 

It's one thing at the coal face, but then they have to go home, decontaminate, and be "normal" with their families who have been cooped up in the house all day while worrying that they might infect their families.

[melmerby]

7 hours ago, midlands said:

I notice the bearfaced scaremongering is still going on in the media.

 

Roger

Just by repeating that you are adding to the scaremongering.

[Nearholmer]

That’s the problem with bears: they look all friendly and cuddly, but you can’t trust a blinking word they say.

 

 

[APOLLO]

 

3 hours ago, Lantavian said:

 

This is from the Imperial College London report that apparently changed Boris Johnson's mind about the UK's strategy

 

It seems that lockdown may have to be repeated several times.

 

 

NB This is my interpretation -- I may have misunderstood the report. Anyway, here's a link to the actual report if you want to read further: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

 

Maybe this will help in the near future

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/31/new-contact-tracing-app-could-key-ending-coronavirus-lockdown/

 

Brit15

Edited April 1, 2020 by APOLLO

[robert17649]

14 minutes ago, APOLLO said:

 What is significant is that this is only a model assuming that the current lockdown works.

 

Maybe this will help in the near future

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/31/new-contact-tracing-app-could-key-ending-coronavirus-lockdown/

 

Brit15

 

[Ron Ron Ron]

I’ve just listened to a very interesting and thought provoking interview with Lord Mervyn King on Radio 5.

(Emma Barnett show 1025 ‘ish)

 

If you can find this online, it’s well worth a listen.

He discusses managing the crisis and the economy through the present period and next few months, the exit strategy and the recovery.

One of many important points and messages, was that nobody can predict medical or economic events and we shouldn’t waste time trying to. The priority should be dealing with and managing our way through the crisis and it’s aftermath.

 

.

 

Edited April 1, 2020 by Ron Ron Ron