Coronavirus, now a Cost of Living Crisis: The threat to railway preservation

[Northmoor]

Well folks, I hope we've all enjoyed the world of railway preservation because by the end of this year, it is going to look quite different.  The travel and freedom of movement advice/restrictions announced today are going to have a HUGE impact on preserved railways.  I fully expect perhaps five or six significant schemes to suspend services at some point this year and not re-open in 2021.

 

1. The reduction in world travel will hit the world, let alone the UK economy, very hard.  We are very likely to see a world recession for at least a couple of years and could see unemployment leap very quickly.  When people (younger people not expected to self-isolate) are out of work, they don't tend to take expensive days out, even if they weren't being advised not to.  Unlike previous recessions, where there has been a proportion of the population who couldn't afford to visit, this time we will still have that group but now the majority remaining are being discouraged as well.
2. People remaining in work aren't going to be getting out and about, so there will be far, FAR fewer visitors.  Many of a railways costs are fixed, so even if they aren't operating they are still burning money.
3. Coach parties are a good earner for preserved railways and are overwhelmingly aimed at retirees.  These are going to cease if they haven't already.
4. A disproportionate number of volunteers are actually over 70; not a majority but significant.  If they are all expected to stay at home, a lot of railways will struggle to put on a service.  I would argue working behind the scenes in a workshop is hardly exposing yourself to other people in close contact, but you have to assume many will stay away.  Therefore a lot of maintenance will get deferred, possibly for a very long period.

 

Of course in the bigger scheme of things, UK preserved railways aren't that important, but it doesn't mean we won't miss the enjoyment they have given us.

[Phil Bullock]

Dont disagree with any of this. Support them in whatever way you can.....

 

Likewise model shops. Placed a phone order with one today who reckons that this is going to cost him up to £80k....

 

Our hobby could look very different.

 

[papagolfjuliet]

I can think of three lines which are already in financial difficulty and for which this might be the last straw.

[TheSignalEngineer]

Looks like my annual trip to the NYMR opening week will be off. We usually visit twice a year. When going to other places we try to call in at lines we pass. Even if we haven't got time for a ride I normally buy refreshments and/or something from the shop if thete is one.

Lines will have difficulties actually running because of the volunteer situation even without the loss of revenue.

 

[GeoffAlan]

Yes, we were chatting about this while watching the NYMR tv show, can't remember the proper title.

 

My neighbour runs a small business and his wife tells me, from a safe distance, that he has no idea if it will survive. 

[Zomboid]

Travel and tourism in general are going to suffer badly from this if it doesn't blow over quickly (and there's no reason to believe that it will).

Things are going to look very different when this is over, but the fundamentals are unlikely to have changed massively.

 

Stay safe everyone.

[Legend]

Its going to affect everything .  I was looking forward to a cruise on PS Waverley that was out of service last year due to boiler troubles . No doubt they were looking to this season to raise cash .  Season doesn't start till June but I think its looking increasingly unlikely

 

Worldwide I think this will cause huge changes . Almost like a Reset button or Ctl - Alt- Del    When the Coronavirus has gone (hopefully it goes) I think a lot of businesses will re evaluate their needs . Do we need to travel as much, do we need head offices . Where were we sourcing materials from , can we get them locally .  I don't think the world will look the same post virus . Like everything else there will be good bits and bad , but the process of change is unsettling .

[Phil Bullock]

8 minutes ago, Legend said:

Its going to affect everything .  I was looking forward to a cruise on PS Waverley that was out of service last year due to boiler troubles . No doubt they were looking to this season to raise cash .  Season doesn't start till June but I think its looking increasingly unlikely

 

Worldwide I think this will cause huge changes . Almost like a Reset button or Ctl - Alt- Del    When the Coronavirus has gone (hopefully it goes) I think a lot of businesses will re evaluate their needs . Do we need to travel as much, do we need head offices . Where were we sourcing materials from , can we get them locally .  I don't think the world will look the same post virus . Like everything else there will be good bits and bad , but the process of change is unsettling .

 

Agreed! Heres a picture just in case you do miss the Waverley - a cruise from Gourock to Bute in 1980 IIRC

 

 

[Chris M]

The timing of this epidemic is most unfortunate for the whole northern hemisphere tourist industry. They tend to make enough money in the summer to see them through the winter and breath a sigh of relief as everybody comes out about now and starts visiting/spending again.

 

The heritage railways are no exception. The santa cash lasts until the spring galas and the revenue from these keeps them going until the school holidays. I can only expect the spring galas will all be cancelled this year. Shame I love em, both steam and diesel on the SVR. Hopefully they will be able to catch some of this back later in the year. Maybe a spring gala in July!

It wouldn't surprise me if some heritage lines completely run out of cash. Donations might keep them going .

[Georgeconna]

41 minutes ago, Phil Bullock said:

 

Agreed! Heres a picture just in case you do miss the Waverley - a cruise from Gourock to Bute in 1980 IIRC

 

 

 

You can almost smell that picutre!!

 

[guzzler17]

33 minutes ago, Chris M said:

I can only expect the spring galas will all be cancelled this year.

 

No announcements yet regarding the Swanage and SVR diesel galas.

[Crisis Rail]

Bit of a doom mong post - hopefully we can all revisit your thread one decade and wonder what all the fuss was about.

 

I'm fully expecting the Swanage Diesel & Beer to be kicked into touch (accom booked and my son is at the Bovington Tiger Tank day same weekend - accom also booked)

 

Bury ELR Trackside pub shut - so it must be bad.

 

Ian

 

edit:Trackside Pub has reopoened

Edited March 18, 2020 by Crisis Rail

[Boris]

3 hours ago, TheSignalEngineer said:

Looks like my annual trip to the NYMR opening week will be off. We usually visit twice a year. When going to other places we try to call in at lines we pass. Even if we haven't got time for a ride I normally buy refreshments and/or something from the shop if thete is one.

Lines will have difficulties actually running because of the volunteer situation even without the loss of revenue.

 

The NYMR is still planning to open on the 6th April and run its full timetable until Easter and see what happens from there.

[Chris M]

23 minutes ago, Boris said:

The NYMR is still planning to open on the 6th April and run its full timetable until Easter and see what happens from there.

But should it?

[colin penfold]

I'm afraid that the preserved railways are victim of the advice to avoid "non-essential travel" because that's their core business. In the same way as we are being told not to go to pubs and restaurants the people running them will need to decide whether they risk the variable costs of continuing to open in the hope that enough people ignore government advice and come out.

A cynic would say it would be fairer if mandatory closures were ordered, but of course compensation would be morally if not legally required in those circumstances.

[Steamport Southport]

I think it's a case of wait and see.

 

Many "experts" expect the whole scenario to be over in a few months. So you may miss the first couple of months of the season. I would expect some of the early season big events to be cancelled. Unfortunately those are the events that make money.

 

Llangollen has already started, but it's normally pretty quiet this time of year. I might pop over whilst it is quiet. It's normally the DMUs and I quite like a ride on them. I've been on them early in the season before and there is sometimes only a handful of passengers.

 

I also think the East Lancs are also running.

 

 

 

Jason

[mdvle]

2 minutes ago, Steamport Southport said:

I think it's a case of wait and see.

 

Many "experts" expect the whole scenario to be over in a few months. So you may miss the first couple of months of the season. I would expect some of the early season big events to be cancelled. Unfortunately those are the events that make money.

 

The people advising the government according to this article expect the social curbs to last through to July or August.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/new-data-new-policy-why-uks-coronavirus-strategy-has-changed

[Steamport Southport]

2 minutes ago, mdvle said:

 

The people advising the government according to this article expect the social curbs to last through to July or August.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/new-data-new-policy-why-uks-coronavirus-strategy-has-changed

 

I wouldn't believe anything in that "paper".

 

 

 

Jason

[Nova Scotian]

8 minutes ago, Steamport Southport said:

 

I wouldn't believe anything in that "paper".

 

 

 

Jason

Then go straight to the source of what they're talking about; https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

I saw the post title and thought "of course" - aging volunteers, reliant on tourism, etc. 

Hopefully they can limit their expenses in the downtime - and survive off donations until things start to pick back up in a few months.

[mdvle]

3 minutes ago, Steamport Southport said:

I wouldn't believe anything in that "paper".

 

Which you and anyone else is entitled to.

 

Though I would point out that it isn't the paper making that claim, but rather Prof Neil Ferguson at Imperial College’s MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis.

 

And the paper with their analysis of Covid-19 and steps to keep the health care system functioning (published yesterday) is at

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

[mdvle]

17 hours ago, Northmoor said:

Well folks, I hope we've all enjoyed the world of railway preservation because by the end of this year, it is going to look quite different.  The travel and freedom of movement advice/restrictions announced today are going to have a HUGE impact on preserved railways.  I fully expect perhaps five or six significant schemes to suspend services at some point this year and not re-open in 2021.

 

I suspect you are correct, not least because of the rumours the pop up (or in at least one case very public in the media) about financial issues at some operators.

 

The good news, if one can call it that, is if this does force some operations to close down it should hopefully create a better long term environment for those the remain as the pool of money, customers, and volunteers doesn't get spread quite as thin in the years to come.

[Northmoor]

2 hours ago, Crisis Rail said:

Bit of a doom mong post - hopefully we can all revisit your thread one decade and wonder what all the fuss was about.

 

I really hope you're right, but as the saying goes, hope isn't a strategy.  As I wrote in my first bullet, this is unlike any previous recession scenario.

 

Anyone who doesn't think people are changing their behaviour, you haven't been into a city this week.  Commuting into London yesterday was like a normal Friday, the quietest day of the week.  Today is like a Sunday, train loading is about 10-20% in the rush hour.

 

Ironically this could hit the biggest and best run railways especially hard.  Lines like the Severn Valley, West Somerset and NYMR are in the middle of major capital projects on their infrastructure, spending money in the way the West Somerset was almost fatally caught out for not doing for too long.  But just when they need the cashflow to support this work, they effectively have the rug pulled from under them.

[Phil Bullock]

48 minutes ago, Northmoor said:

I really hope you're right, but as the saying goes, hope isn't a strategy.  As I wrote in my first bullet, this is unlike any previous recession scenario.

 

Anyone who doesn't think people are changing their behaviour, you haven't been into a city this week.  Commuting into London yesterday was like a normal Friday, the quietest day of the week.  Today is like a Sunday, train loading is about 10-20% in the rush hour.

 

Ironically this could hit the biggest and best run railways especially hard.  Lines like the Severn Valley, West Somerset and NYMR are in the middle of major capital projects on their infrastructure, spending money in the way the West Somerset was almost fatally caught out for not doing for too long.  But just when they need the cashflow to support this work, they effectively have the rug pulled from under them.

 

Assuming you mean Falling Sands Viaduct on the Severn Valley? There definitely is financial risk in the current climate but this planned infrastructure spend has seperate funding in place. Such a spend cannot be funded from operational income, the vast majority of which is committed to running and day to day maintenance costs.

[mdvle]

There can also, if the organizations have the ability to plan now on a it may or may not happen basis, be the possibility of some "bonus" funding for infrastructure as at some point governments likely start to look at spending money to stimulate the economy.

 

No guarantees obviously, but past tough economic times can be a guidance as to how responses might happen this time.

[thirty2a]

if it blows over early summer everyone will be very eager to get out and about so fingers crossed, trying to remain positive.