HS2 under review

[black and decker boy]

But 99.9% of people I talk to in the Chilterns and Warwickshire are fully in favour of HS2.

 

having long distance connectivity from your local WCML station becomes less valuable once capacity is fully used and they start to prioritise services. Your semi-fast long distance Intercity becomes non stop and replaced by more outer suburban EMU on the slow lines and an enforced change.

[Mike Storey]

14 hours ago, lmsforever said:

HS2 at the moment is bumbling along in the long grass but soon it will have to come out into the daylight and prove that they and their supporters are right ,construction will probably follow the trend in the UK  and be hopelessly delayed.It will of course be way over budget and have to be bailed out numerous times this will stop any construction north of Birmingham and the perceived benefits will not happen.One thing that will happen is that the normal network will have services taken away and journey times lengthened so as to force passengers onto high speed,this is fact said at roadshows and by many and DAFT have agreed that this will happen.Instead of expresses the wcml and ec will be commuter lines and no use to long distance passengers who can join at convenient hubs today.Supporters can shout all they like HS2 will divide travel not aid it in the UK how far out will London commuters live and more important will they pay the fares to go into London the hubs around other cities will have smaller areas that passengers travel as today and will have investment to improve them.But long distance travel will be chopped down to one line that is not what we want in the UK choice works now but it is being sacficed for something we do not need. 

 

But it does not work now, as many surveys and punctuality stats show. Timetables are sub-optimum already and suffering from shoe-horning. Extra capacity on existing lines, apart from very marginal gains, would be fantastically disruptive and lengthy. Show us where else an extra 18 paths an hour between north and south can be obtained, and I will have some respect for your views. HS2 adds choice, as HS1 did, and no-one is "forced" to use Javelins.

 

The only correct determinant of need is whether demand (freight and passenger) will continue to grow within the ranges being forecast. I suspect that downgrades to GDP predictions and consequent reduction in economic activity, may be the deciding factor. It is going to be fascinating watching one set of politicians, who are mainly anti-HS2, but who, at the same time, insist that UK growth will become exponential after a certain date, but who then argue that HS2 is not needed because there is no demand for it.

 

[The Stationmaster]

35 minutes ago, Mike Storey said:

 

But it does not work now, as many surveys and punctuality stats show. Timetables are sub-optimum already and suffering from shoe-horning. Extra capacity on existing lines, apart from very marginal gains, would be fantastically disruptive and lengthy. Show us where else an extra 18 paths an hour between north and south can be obtained, and I will have some respect for your views. HS2 adds choice, as HS1 did, and no-one is "forced" to use Javelins.

 

The only correct determinant of need is whether demand (freight and passenger) will continue to grow within the ranges being forecast. I suspect that downgrades to GDP predictions and consequent reduction in economic activity, may be the deciding factor. It is going to be fascinating watching one set of politicians, who are mainly anti-HS2, but who, at the same time, insist that UK growth will become exponential after a certain date, but who then argue that HS2 is not needed because there is no demand for it.

 

Interestingly thus far WCML growth (in terms of number of paths) seems to be ahead of predictions made back in in 2000 when I was involved in an infrastructure life assessment study for the route including the rate at which infrastructure would degrade as usage (number of paths and axleloadings) increased.  That study - of which I was but one member of a team of mainly engineers - concluded that at the anticipated rates of increase which we were told to use the WCML would become increasingly difficult to maintain by the 2020s due to the sheer number of trains  and consequent reduced opportunities for possessions.

 

Knowing that the WCML will be encounter capacity and maintenance problems by the 2020s is not exactly a new discovery and was being forecast, with some accuracy as it happens, almost two decades ago.  In the light of just one study, and obviously others since then, there is clearly a need to do something to relieve the situation on the WCML.  And of course since then a far higher quality, and more frequent, service has emerged on the Marylebone - Birmingham route but if anything it has stimulated travel and helped increase overall demand rather than suck much, if anything, away from the WCML.  

 

So it would appear undeniable that 'something' has to be done to relieve the WCML's capacity problems (and resulting maintenance demands) and the question then is 'what?'.  And the answer to the 'what?' has been resolved as HS2 which will offer numerous advantages, including cost, over anything which could be done on the southern end (definitely south of Roade, and in some respects south of Rugby) of the WCML itself.

 

As is already known there are one or two aspects of HS2 which I do not like but those do not undermine in any way at all the need for building it and it is good to see that at last ground has already been broken at various sites. 

[APOLLO]

Brit15

[pete_mcfarlane]

2 hours ago, Mike Storey said:

The only correct determinant of need is whether demand (freight and passenger) will continue to grow within the ranges being forecast. I suspect that downgrades to GDP predictions and consequent reduction in economic activity, may be the deciding factor. 

I suspect the worst case there is that the rate of increase will slow (as happened in the recession after the financial crisis 10 years ago) and HS2 will get completed 10 years before we actually needed it. Which is not a massive issue in the grand scheme of things. 

[corneliuslundie]

Or more likely knowing how often such projects are completed on time, it will be completed at about the time we need it.

Jonathan

[ess1uk]

https://www.railengineer.co.uk/2019/02/19/birmingham-washwood-heath-train-factory-demolished/

Washwood Heath work

[Mike Storey]

37 minutes ago, ess1uk said:

https://www.railengineer.co.uk/2019/02/19/birmingham-washwood-heath-train-factory-demolished/

Washwood Heath work

 

One of the most interesting facts in this article, for me, is that Mike Lyons is the Programme Director for the Phase 1 works. I worked with Mike on several Network Rail schemes, when he was a Programme Manager, newly recruited externally, and then as a Senior Programme Manager and then Programme Director (when he took my old job in NR when I moved to the Olympic Delivery Authority on London 2012). I doubt there is anyone more capable and challenging in this field. I have to admit now, but never then, that he was far better than me at the practical application of project management. It shows to me that they have not been recruiting nutjobs.

 

It bodes well for the project, if the politicos and voters allow it to go ahead.

 

What does worry me is that, if Network Rail are losing peeps of this ability, who is running the shop at home?

 

 

Edited February 19, 2019 by Mike Storey

[lmsforever]

We still would appreciate more news on the ground people round here do not have a clue whats going on if we did we could at least prepare for the line.I don't know who Black and Decker talks to but his figures seem to be overestimated I would say that less than thirty per cent in Bucks even have an opinion especially those who do not live on the route but along the route many are absolutely against it.I think if you supporters had the prospect of this line passing less than a quarter of a mile from you a change of mind would happen.Now convince me that we need this devisive railway

[black and decker boy]

1 hour ago, lmsforever said:

We still would appreciate more news on the ground people round here do not have a clue whats going on if we did we could at least prepare for the line.I don't know who Black and Decker talks to but his figures seem to be overestimated I would say that less than thirty per cent in Bucks even have an opinion especially those who do not live on the route but along the route many are absolutely against it.I think if you supporters had the prospect of this line passing less than a quarter of a mile from you a change of mind would happen.Now convince me that we need this devisive railway

You don’t want to listen so it’s a waste of time.

 

Plenty of information out there with weekly email news letters from HS2 direct. I’ve posted links here in the past. They are still mobilising so not slot to see or get grumpy about. Main civils construction will kick in next year.

[Trog]

Before I retired I was told that on parts of the south end of the WCML even the heavy CEN60 rail was reaching its design fatigue life in under ten years. This is the point after which rail defects start to become much more common, and you have to start cutting out and replacing them with sections of new rail at a faster rate. Or bite the bullet and renew the whole of that section of rail.

 

A programme to change rail on a ten year cycle would mean changing something like thirty two miles of rail a year on the fast/old lines alone between Euston and Rugby.

[Mike Storey]

See this for what might be the shape of things to come, if HS2 does go ahead.......

 

https://www.thelocal.fr/20190220/what-frances-high-speed-tgv-trains-will-look-like-in-future

 

Of interest is that Alstom have designed this for a top speed of 220 mph (350 kph), despite SNCF (French Railways) routinely sticking to 187 mph top speed due to energy consumption. But this one is a very light weight version of anything they have had before, and produces a 20% reduction in energy consumption. That means, very approximately, that they could run at 220 mph for a similar cost to the older generation trains at 187 mph.

 

French LGV routes, topographically, have been designed from the outset to cope with higher speeds than they have actually, traditionally used. I guess it would require a software change to their on-board signalling and control system, but little else.

 

Also of note is the price, per unit. A lot lower than has been, tentatively, allowed in the budget for HS2 for the "captive" units in Phase 2. Obviously, there would be a higher unit cost for the "classic compatible", as those would be unique to the UK.

 

I look forward to seeing what the other short-listed bidders come up with.

 

[locoholic]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47310215

 

High Speed Rail troubles aren't just a UK phenomenon!

[The Stationmaster]

On 20/02/2019 at 08:27, Trog said:

Before I retired I was told that on parts of the south end of the WCML even the heavy CEN60 rail was reaching its design fatigue life in under ten years. This is the point after which rail defects start to become much more common, and you have to start cutting out and replacing them with sections of new rail at a faster rate. Or bite the bullet and renew the whole of that section of rail.

 

A programme to change rail on a ten year cycle would mean changing something like thirty two miles of rail a year on the fast/old lines alone between Euston and Rugby.

Doesn't surprise me at all.  On the project I worked on the PerWay engineer got quite worried when he saw the figures I was producing (from traffic forecasts) about the number of trains/wheels which would be running on the WCML in future years.  I don't think he went as low as 10 years for rail life but he definitely said the rate of rail wear would increase substantially and rail life would be considerably reduced in consequence - alas I don't have an accessible copy of our final report.

 

15 hours ago, Mike Storey said:

See this for what might be the shape of things to come, if HS2 does go ahead.......

 

https://www.thelocal.fr/20190220/what-frances-high-speed-tgv-trains-will-look-like-in-future

 

Of interest is that Alstom have designed this for a top speed of 220 mph (350 kph), despite SNCF (French Railways) routinely sticking to 187 mph top speed due to energy consumption. But this one is a very light weight version of anything they have had before, and produces a 20% reduction in energy consumption. That means, very approximately, that they could run at 220 mph for a similar cost to the older generation trains at 187 mph.

 

French LGV routes, topographically, have been designed from the outset to cope with higher speeds than they have actually, traditionally used. I guess it would require a software change to their on-board signalling and control system, but little else.

 

Also of note is the price, per unit. A lot lower than has been, tentatively, allowed in the budget for HS2 for the "captive" units in Phase 2. Obviously, there would be a higher unit cost for the "classic compatible", as those would be unique to the UK.

 

I look forward to seeing what the other short-listed bidders come up with.

 

I doubt there would be any infrastructure problems at all as braking distances are more than adequate at present speeds from what I've observed in the driving cab on two LGV routes.

 

The big problem will be updating the 'egg box' in the driving cabs as it will need a fairly hefty rebuild from the original arrangement which uses 1960s technology involving mirrors and light boxes so all the detail in the cab indications is 'fixed' to the extent that it is always there whether it is illuminated or not.  Sort that out and yes, easy to arrange for higher speeds. 

[Edwin_m]

I guess they'd upgrade to ERTMS to allow a higher top speed rather than fiddling around with an obsolescent system.  This would involve replacing the cab display but it could be configured with a special module to continue to work on lines fitted with TVM. 

[jamie92208]

I've just found this You Tube video from the Londonist Blog which I felt was quite good at showing what's going to happen at Old Oak Common.   

 

I hadn't realised that this was going to be the launch site for the TBM's.   

 

Jamie

[Mike Storey]

21 hours ago, locoholic said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47310215

 

High Speed Rail troubles aren't just a UK phenomenon!

 

Very interesting - thanks. I took a while to look further at the problems, on other sources. It appears the first two D&B (virtually fixed price) contracts were let well below the original budget forecast. So the emerging cost issues are not to do with design or construction (to date). It would appear that cost escalation mainly comprises, our old friend, land purchase and compensation costs (primarily due to rocketing prices around San Francisco since the 2008 budget), further deferment of the necessary state funding (as opposed to federal funding), which has caused late starts on further phases, and thus predicted cost escalation as a result (but which has been driven by two different peer or independent reviews of likely ridership over the first "x" years) and dithering over the exact route.

 

Some lessons to be learnt for HS2, clearly. but a very big difference is that the Californian scheme is based very much on French thinking (SNCF's consultancy was heavily involved at the start), whereby the HS route ends at the outskirts of the major centres served (bar one or two passing stations) and then uses existing, but upgraded tracks to gain the city centres, plus electrification of those classic routes, and, reading between the lines, this is where some major cost escalation is predicted. Shades of WCML Upgrade or even GWIP. Perversely, it is not a French team that has won the concession to lead the design and then operate the service - that has gone to German Railways! But it is instructive that perhaps HS2 has gone in the right direction by choosing dedicated new routes into city centres, bar Sheffield (which was a late change driven by political rather than professional project advice).

 

One of my rail project managers on London 2012 was American, and the guy was excellent at his job. His next move was to Los Angeles to work on this project..... He will have had 8 years work out of it so far, but is probably wondering if he made the right move now!

 

What is for sure, is that the Trump factor is not driven by any objective evaluation of the scheme to date. He calls it the "green failure".  He appointed the most regressive Head of the FRA (Federal Railroad Administration), Ronald Batory, anyone has seen since Ronald Reagan (who also hated railways, and cut Amtrak's investment budget to almost zero, which was fortunately restored by Congress.). Batory was basically an over-promoted auditor for ConRail and has a freight headset, whereby regulation was obstructed at every opportunity, and the retention, let alone expansion, of passenger rail transport was seen as a huge threat to free enterprise. No surprise whatsoever there, even before the political battle over "The Wall" gave Batory the easy retaliation he had been seeking since his appointment. Trump never mentions anymore that one of his other big election promises was the biggest investment in public infrastructure ever. Can't see him shutting down the government for that.

 

[lmsforever]

Most interesting Mike just shows that we have the right idea for our line ,direct to  the centre its one thing that I do like about HS2 even if I do not like the rest.The Californians are in for some big payback to Washington and maybe the French have dropped behind in technology so there could be a chance for us?

[Mike Storey]

9 hours ago, lmsforever said:

Most interesting Mike just shows that we have the right idea for our line ,direct to  the centre its one thing that I do like about HS2 even if I do not like the rest.The Californians are in for some big payback to Washington and maybe the French have dropped behind in technology so there could be a chance for us?

 

Some UK consultancies were also in at the start, and I guess they are still there. But our only domestic, physical contribution to HS in recent decades, has tended to be peripheral, but that could change if HS2 goes ahead and the emerging High Speed rail technology academies continue to exist. The world leaders in HS are still Japan/Italy (Hitachi/Bombardier), France (Alstom), Germany (Siemens), perhaps Spain (Talgo) although most of their AVE trains are basically products by others, and possibly emerging, China (although China's tech was largely based on French know-how originally - it is of note that their big player, CRRC, has not made the short-list for HS2 trains.).

 

[corneliuslundie]

Has it been made clear how much of the cost escalation for HS2 has been due to the need to electrify the route into Sheffield rather than that being paid for by the MML scheme which has now been cut back?

Jonathan

[Edwin_m]

8 hours ago, Mike Storey said:

 

Some UK consultancies were also in at the start, and I guess they are still there. But our only domestic, physical contribution to HS in recent decades, has tended to be peripheral, but that could change if HS2 goes ahead and the emerging High Speed rail technology academies continue to exist. The world leaders in HS are still Japan/Italy (Hitachi/Bombardier), France (Alstom), Germany (Siemens), perhaps Spain (Talgo) although most of their AVE trains are basically products by others, and possibly emerging, China (although China's tech was largely based on French know-how originally - it is of note that their big player, CRRC, has not made the short-list for HS2 trains.).

 

Thinking of HS infrastructure rather than just trains, Spain would definitely be on the list - I believe the've built more than anyone except the Chinese. 

[Mike Storey]

1 hour ago, corneliuslundie said:

Has it been made clear how much of the cost escalation for HS2 has been due to the need to electrify the route into Sheffield rather than that being paid for by the MML scheme which has now been cut back?

Jonathan

 

Good question, although I believe the overall cost option for a route via Sheffield was actually cheaper than the original route with a station at Meadowhall?

 

[Mike Storey]

56 minutes ago, Edwin_m said:

Thinking of HS infrastructure rather than just trains, Spain would definitely be on the list - I believe the've built more than anyone except the Chinese. 

 

Not by a great margin - the route mileages for Germany, Spain and France are pretty similar. Remember also that the European/Asian standard definition of High Speed on railways, is anything that runs over 200 kph. UIC "considers" that it should really be 250 kph, but most lists still use the earlier definition, hence such lists can be a little misleading today (not for Spain, which runs at 250 kph plus on almost all its AVE routes). For example, the UK is defined on several lists as having the 7th largest high speed network in the world!!

 

In any event, the key skills in HS railway line construction and operation lie in signalling, control and communications, all of which Spain has "bought in". Building a relatively level and straight railway, with deeper foundations, shoulders and heavier profile, over large distances, is not a new skill, except perhaps when it comes to HS tunnels and narrow cuttings. What is unique to Spain is that a large percentage of its AVE network is actually single line for long sections, so frequencies on those routes are sub-optimal for a decent ROC, but then the population densities (away from Madrid, Barcelona and parts of the North East) are lower than elsewhere. It is hardly the case that existing lines are being used to full capacity, except perhaps for a few heavy freight routes. One can only describe the Spanish projects (outside the three core routes) as an economic and political concession, rather than stimulus. France has recently decided to restrict further HS schemes to those which have a real economic or network need, and not just a political need. Otherwise, its previous plans would have well exceeded Spain.

 

As the UK has only one, truly HS route, and a severely congested and poor-performing existing rail, road and air network, one can still make the argument that further HS development will be a stimulus, both to suppressed demand and to wider economic development, without being laughed at, out loud. The geographic beneficiaries remain the primary contention.

 

[Ron Ron Ron]

 

[Bernard Lamb]

9 hours ago, Ron Ron Ron said:

 

Thanks for posting.

That explains why it looked a bit bare as I went past yesterday afternoon.

Any one any idea as to what is happening to the crane?

Bernard