Castle Aching

[Nearholmer]

At that level of un-preparedness, I can only agree with you, but, callous as this may seem towards the PBI suffering, and in some cases dying for want of it, warehouses full of PPE wouldn't actually be decisive in significantly altering outcomes. By the time medical staff need that much PPE to be able to safely minister to the sick, the horse has bolted.

 

One aspect of un-preparedness that may prove to have been decisive is lack of mental preparedness on the part of the highest decision-makers in the land.

[Donw]

One of the problems is the Public had no appetite to pay more taxes and thought someone else should pay more. It has only been the last year or two that NHS funding has increased.

It is also quite likely that whatever we had stored ready would not have been quite right.

I am rather with Kevin the minute this was proving to be a problem in China. All visitors and those returning from abroad should have been put into quarrantine. This would not has been popular but it would have greatly reduced the spread.  We were worrying about people coming from China and didn't realise it had already reached italy.

 

The idiots may feel there is only a small chance of them dying but do not understand let rip there is a real danger not only of the NHS being overwelmed when a car accident or heart attack or a child with meningitis would be a risk of not getting prompt treatment, but there would be knock on effects as numbers of those off sick rose it could cause problems with key supplies. A bakery down to half strength would not be able to turn out enough loaves. Without enough delivery drivers stores might not get enough supplies  etc. etc. 

 

Don

[Regularity]

5 minutes ago, Donw said:

One of the problems is the Public had no appetite to pay more taxes and thought someone else should pay more. It has only been the last year or two that NHS funding has increased.

Ah, the glories of Thatcherism. Took 45 years to fully show its effects, but almost two generations have grown up indoctrinated to think about reducing taxes and improving services, but only in terms of reducing their income tax and improving the services they need now...

[Edwardian]

5 hours ago, Nearholmer said:

Edwardian

 

Even the most dire scenario, effectively "do nothing" and let the virus run through the population, was not expected to give rise to the number of fatalities within the UK that you cite, it was modelled at c500 000 (the outputs and confidence limits are in the public domain via ICL), and over a period of months, not years. Basically, 60%+ of the population would catch it, and because the health service would be totally overwhelmed by severe cases, the fatality rate would be high.

 

Assuming that one acquires immunity, and that the beast doesn't rapidly mutate, even in a "let rip" scenario the thing self-limits ....... its an S-shaped curve of growth of cases, the 'S' rising very steeply, but also having a long, very slowly rising, top-edge-tail (it would be easier to draw than describe!), as the "last few", some naturally isolated hill-farmers and island-hermits, catch it over a long period. A small % would never catch it, because it would simply cease to propogate, the famous "herd immunity" would operate.

 

The current strategy is modelled to give rise to c20 000 fatalities in the "current wave", the big, huge, ginormous question being how to prevent the beast breaking loose, and fatalities shooting-up, after the "current wave".

 

As to whether "your government was under-prepared"  I don't imagine any health service could ever be sustained with "capacity in waiting" to treat maybe 15% of the population for severe respiratory illness over a period of, say, three months, which, is what the "let rip" scenario would have required ...... it would be the equivalent of maintaining a standing army, navy and air force, fully equipped, trained and drilled, ready to fight the whole of WW2 at a moments notice.

 

In my view, the questions to be asked are more around whether the government acted swiftly enough, and decisively enough to limit import and spread in the very early stages (and the fact that I think those are the questions probably tells you what I think the answers are!).

 

Kevin

 

PS: Just say so if you want me to get off my obsession-horse.

 

 

 

Kevin,

 

It's hard to navigate when going full pelt on your hobby horse, but at least you've kept in the saddle!.

 

I was making no claim or prediction as to the level of fatalities. The highest prediction I heard, and my own back of the envelope calculation was, indeed, 500,000. If that happened, and I think that is 'worst case', rather than likely, we would exceed our death toll for WWII, but not exceed it as a % of the population.

 

The only (I thought) remotely tendentious comment I made was to suggest that we were under-prepared.  I believe we were, and too slow to act.  Compare the German response with ours.

 

But, since you mention it ....

 

When we needed a Beaverbrook, we ended up with Dad's Army:

 

 - We are critically short of tests.  So, we're largely fighting blind. This seems to be partly because we did not ramp up quickly enough, leading to shortage of materiel, but also because of administrative decisions, like centralising testing in facilities that cannot be brought online quickly enough

 

- We are critically short of PPE.  This, again, seems to have resulted from not ramping up quickly enough. This has lead to the de facto sacrifice of thousands in care homes, because there was no means to protect staff and residents. 

 

- We are far short of our ventilator target, again, because we failed to ramp up, but also, I hear today, because of confusion of what was needed. Let's hope we don't need as many as we thought we would.

 

We even seem to have repatriated our overseas citizens far more slowly than other western countries managed.  Our staff have now left Peru, leaving behind a number of Brits.

 

It's a very, very difficult job, but some governments managed it better, suggesting that we might have done. On the other hand, it could be worse, we could be at the tender mercy of Trump's decision-making. 

 

We've got a couple of things right.  One is the lock-down, which should remain in place for now, and should be respected.  The other is the commendably rapid commissioning of the Nightingale hospitals.  These seem largely redundant, and I pray that this remains so.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[nick_bastable]

25 minutes ago, Edwardian said:

 

 

  The other is the commendably rapid commissioning of the Nightingale hospitals.  These seem largely redundant, and I pray that this remains so.

 

 

 

Indeed if they are unused a win win and in my opinion no money wasted 

 

mean while to have the energy and drive of a 99 year old raising funds

 

Nick B

 

Edited April 16, 2020 by nick_bastable

[Compound2632]

1 hour ago, nick_bastable said:

Indeed if they are unused a win win and in my opinion no money wasted 

 

Nick B

 

 

If you go out without your umbrella, it will rain. 

Edited April 16, 2020 by Compound2632
Inappropriate levity removed. (Did include the word "umbraphilia".)

[Joseph_Pestell]

47 minutes ago, Nearholmer said:

One aspect of un-preparedness that may prove to have been decisive is lack of mental preparedness on the part of the highest decision-makers in the land.

 

I think I know what you mean by "mental preparedness".

 

I relate the situation more to what I learned when having to do risk assessments for a business as part of our annual review process. There have been Govt exercises to prepare for a pandemic. Those must surely have shown the absolute necessity of a massive stockpile of PPE and adequate testing facilities. If we don't have those, it must be that someone decided that the downsides of a pandemic did not equal the costs of being prepared. To me, that says that their understanding of risk assessment is hopelessly flawed. Or that, as you say, they were not mentally prepared to believe the obvious risk that they were taking in not being better prepared.

[nick_bastable]

1 hour ago, Compound2632 said:

umbraphilia

what a great word 

 

Nick B

[brianusa]

15 hours ago, monkeysarefun said:

  We're lucky in that we're three islands  in the ocean a long way from any other countries and our population is relatively small so our approach works. 

 

A bit like "On the Beach" and the atomic cloud drifting into the southern hemisphere.

      Brian.

[Knuckles]

3 hours ago, Compound2632 said:

 

@Knuckles - D299 and Drg 1143 D305 - very nice but both have numberplate (correctly) to the right on one side but (incorrectly) to the left on the other! D299 has a late-style rectangular door banger on both sides.

 

Eeugh.  This came up in the design stage as we had a side and end drawing yet were lacking in many photographs showing the plates.  I did as was asked after discussing this.

 

Can change them if need be.  What proofs could you show please. 

Edited April 16, 2020 by Knuckles

[Mrkirtley800]

We live in a popular holiday area, and proposals for a new housing development near us were  allowed to go ahead by Scarborough Council.

It is the most hideous development I have seen, yet the houses are being bought as second homes.

At least one of the second homes is owned by some people who live in London, and they suddenly appeared one day last week, I might say, to the displeasure of the locals.

However, the owners have disappeared, so we think there might have been words exchanged.

Derek

[Donw]

Thank you for posting that Alex. My thoughts had been that something was awry with the ordering. Seeing on TV hospitals where they seem to all have specialist kit and then odd individual complaining they didn't have any. Yet there was no senior management coming forward to complain. That made me suspect they hd not ordered sufficient perhaps underestimating the need.  You explanation makes sense they wouldn't want to risk being challenged on this.

 

Don

[Nearholmer]

3 hours ago, Edwardian said:

 

It's hard to navigate when going full pelt on your hobby horse, but at least you've kept in the saddle!.

 

I was making no claim or prediction as to the level of fatalities.

 

I was actually trying to reassure you that even the worst case didn't look quite as bad as the number you mentioned, but while I did indeed remain in the saddle, the horse got the better of me and galloped around a bit more than I'd intended. Sorry!

 

No more from me on the subject of The Dreaded in this thread.

[webbcompound]

And as for ministers not knowing the difference between a measure and an indicator......

[Clearwater]

Reading the virus posts above, I’m not sure how reliable,accurate or comparable are some of these statistics that are being widely reported.  What percentage of the population is acctually tested and when? Are non-hospital deaths counted? What impact does population density have? When did this virus really reach the UK/LOndon?  Given population density, the comparatively high number of overseas visitors, the rush hour loadings of the tube, buses and commuter rail,  you might expect the UK, and London/SE, to be more heavily hit over a faster timeframe than other places. It’s that speed of infection that hits the health service hard. It may be that a more diffuse, rural population will eventually hit the same toll but take longer to get to it.

 

If we’re struggling, I fear what is, or will, happen in third world countries.

 

Not the cheeriest of topics but I’d be interested to see how the Black Death spread and the relative timeframes for infection of rural and urban populations. It might be an interesting comparison. 

 

It seems to me,we need a vaccine,and fast.  Coupled to a plan to produce 60 million doses and toget them out to all of us.  No mean logistical feat.

 

David

Edited April 16, 2020 by Clearwater
Spelling - I’m blaming autocorrect

[robmcg]

Would it help if we could see some esoteric 5-plank wagon design?  As I understand it there were one or two variations on that theme, even in Norfolk....

 

I have a large number of Hornby open 4-wheelers with writing on the sides, which suggests that they are old-type. Perhaps I should photo-edit the words away?   

[Andy Hayter]

Sadly Rob I think you will need to do a lot more than the script.

Wheelbase:  usually wrong

Chassis construction: Steel and should be wood

Brakes:  Just plain wrong

Buffers: generic and far too beefy for most wagons of the period

Keeper plates, axle boxes …..   well you get the picture - or at least with a great deal of work you might be able to construct a picture.

[Compound2632]

@robmcg, if you started off from Hornby's 6-plank, 4-plank, or 3-plank wagons, you'd be in with a chance - so long as you are using ones with the old underframe with rather nice round-bottomed grease axleboxes rather than the new underframe with anachronistic oil axleboxes, even though other details are finer. They're the closest thing, RTR, to 1887 RCH specification wagons. Of course they should really have brakes on one side only but you could convince youself we're always looking at the brake side rather than the non-brake side. The strange V-hanger rather spoils the effect, unfortunately, but one can understand why they made the compromises they did on what is still basically a toy. Beware that even with these wagons, the liveries provided are not necessarily appropriate to the wagon. If re-lettering, beware @Annie's strictures on the shapes of the signwritten letters - modern block fonts will not do. 

 

With work on the underframe, they can be persuaded to brush up to become passable layout wagons. Slaters kit for Gloucester RC&W Co. RCH 1887 6-plank wagon on the left, Hornby 6-plank on the right, with new running gear and brakes:

 

[Annie]

30 minutes ago, Compound2632 said:

If re-lettering, beware @Annie's strictures on the shapes of the signwritten letters - modern block fonts will not do. 

Yes beware the horrors of Arial Fonts Disease.  It insidiously infects many wagons and causes their near ruination,  Nothing but the most severe scouring down to bare skin plastic/metal will banish it.  

 

Look upon the true form and know it so that thou shalt not be deceived.

 

Edited April 17, 2020 by Annie
Um.......

[Hroth]

24 minutes ago, Annie said:

Yes beware the horrors of Arial Fonts Disease.  It insidiously infects many wagons and causes their near ruination,  Nothing but the most severe scouring down to bare skin plastic/metal will banish it.  

 

Look upon the true form and know it so that thou shalt not be deceived.

 

But the hideous deformity of the G and the E!!!

The mutant serif on the G and the over-extended upper and lower bars on the E make them look like the vapid young men in a P G Wodehouse tale. 

 

They would make even the "designer" of Comic Sans wince.....

 

pssst...  Here's a pinch of salt.

[Edwardian]

10 hours ago, Knuckles said:

 

Eeugh.  This came up in the design stage as we had a side and end drawing yet were lacking in many photographs showing the plates.  I did as was asked after discussing this.

 

Can change them if need be.  What proofs could you show please. 

 

These are excellent news. 

 

Might you produce buffer guides, axleboxes and springs and brake gear? 

 

I daresay that one or other if of the white metal accessory manufacturers will produce same, but it would be handy if you were a one-stop shop. 

 

Of course, it would be even better news if you were to produce GER pre-diagram 4-plank, GER diagram 16 5-plank and GER diagram 17 5-plank (as pictured by Annie).

 

And, of course, WNR standard 4 and 5-planks!

[Compound2632]

58 minutes ago, Edwardian said:

Might you produce buffer guides, axleboxes and springs and brake gear? 

 

I daresay that one or other if of the white metal accessory manufacturers will produce same, but it would be handy if you were a one-stop shop. 

 

For the Midland wagons, MJT is your friend for the running gear (etched W irons and cast whitemetal springs with either the early 8A and later Ellis 10A axleboxes) and buffers (turned buffers in cast whitemetal guides) and Bill Bedford by way of Eileen's Emporium for brake levers (etched) at least - I haven't checked for brakes. But all this will push the cost up towards £40 incl. wheels - though I imagine additional 3D printed parts would be similar in additional cost. There are cheaper routes to, in my view, satisfactory representations of these wagons but, if the printed body is spot on, possibly not as fine. I'm in communication with Knuckles re. the detail points I raised.

 

I expect similar applies to the Great Western wagons though a source for components for the O4's sheet rail is tricky, unless you have a friend who wants late-period O11s...

[Edwardian]

12 minutes ago, Compound2632 said:

 

For the Midland wagons, MJT is your friend for the running gear (etched W irons and cast whitemetal springs with either the early 8A and later Ellis 10A axleboxes) and buffers (turned buffers in cast whitemetal guides) and Bill Bedford by way of Eileen's Emporium for brake levers (etched) at least - I haven't checked for brakes. But all this will push the cost up towards £40 incl. wheels - though I imagine additional 3D printed parts would be similar in additional cost. There are cheaper routes to, in my view, satisfactory representations of these wagons but, if the printed body is spot on, possibly not as fine. I'm in communication with Knuckles re. the detail points I raised.

 

I expect similar applies to the Great Western wagons though a source for components for the O4's sheet rail is tricky, unless you have a friend who wants late-period O11s...

 

Yes, I have a pile of unbuilt Slater's D299s and Coopercraft O5 4-planks.

 

If any two opens count as staples for me, it's these two. Any future GW layout will need the 4-planks, while every layout needs the MR wagons.  

 

The O5s are to be built in the main as pre-diagram wagons with conventional (non DC) brakes. 

 

Both kits have similar problems in that, unmodified, the floor sits too high.  I overcame this with a Coopercraft kit, and you have shown how to do so with the Slaters. With this correction, as you say, satisfactory representations of these wagons can be made.

 

Thus, I take your point entirely, and would need either to have run out of the injection-moulded kit stash, or to be persuaded that a 3D print represented a better representation and easier option for a comparable price before buying in numbers.

 

With the Slaters D299s back in production and a Bill Bedford resin version (though I am not really persuaded by resin as a medium), a 3D version must show some advantages over them.

 

Better, perhaps "to boldly go" where no manufacture currently goes. 

 

Thus also, I refer to the 3 generations of GE opens as an example of where 3D print would score.  The 4-plank has never been made.  The 5-plank body and D16 u/fs did exist at one point in 3D, but there was no D17 u/f.  Both the D16 and D17 have existed as complete kits by D&S.  They cost arm plus leg on the Bay of Fleas, where they appear but rarely.  

 

There will be other examples.  The world could use some MSLR/GC/CLC opens, for instance, or GN 4-planks (though there, again, there is a Mousa resin option), or, to ride the current wave, a nice round-ended SER general merchandise open. 

 

That said, the 3d-print GWR 4-plank is likely to tempt. I intend to build up stock for a future c.1900-1903 GW scheme, which will all be red frames and red wagons, all Dean and Armstrong, and very little grey and very little Churchward, as I think that is a most attractive moment to capture. I want to contrast this with some stock for a later period, post 1906, possibly as late as 1912-14.  So, i'll effectively need to double-up on GW opens. 

 

Had I but world enough and time...

 

First must come WNR stock, followed by GER, then GN, MR and M&GN, and I am, finally, working on this!

[Tom Burnham]

Unfortunately not Pregrouping (or even LNER) but parishioners may be interested in a blog post about "The Fenman", the Hunstanton to Liverpool Street and return express - https://spatialsynergydave.wordpress.com/2020/04/15/the-fenman-hunstantons-named-train/

 

There's another post from the same blogger about his childhood visits to Hunstanton, which may also be of interest - https://spatialsynergydave.wordpress.com/2014/04/26/return-ticket-to-hunstanton/

[Edwardian]

21 minutes ago, Tom Burnham said:

Unfortunately not Pregrouping (or even LNER) but parishioners may be interested in a blog post about "The Fenman", the Hunstanton to Liverpool Street and return express - https://spatialsynergydave.wordpress.com/2020/04/15/the-fenman-hunstantons-named-train/

 

There's another post from the same blogger about his childhood visits to Hunstanton, which may also be of interest - https://spatialsynergydave.wordpress.com/2014/04/26/return-ticket-to-hunstanton/

 

Thanks, Tom.

 

Time, then, to give this another outing Betjeman on the Lynn & Hunstanton

 

 

 

Edited April 17, 2020 by Edwardian
spelling