Impact on the Railways of Leaving the EU

[Kenton]

 

It's entirely proper to report on minority views but the public should be made aware when they are minority views

 

The problem I have is: who, exactly is claiming that they are "minority views". Perhaps some pollster? We all know how reliable they are. Or perhaps they are the "minority" that we were all assured would vote for Brexit? It may surprise many, especially those celebrities of science, and those with alternate agendas linked closely to the EU, that there are scientists who also support Brexit.

 

One of the biggest falsehoods is the term "Political Science". As for statistics, well they are also behind these polls and the route cause of their inability to predict anything is sampling size/technique. Lies, damned lies and statistics will forever hold true - even in medical science where politics (small p) still plays an enormous role.

 

But back to the railways: I seriously doubt if Brexit will have any real impact on safety or operation beyond the normal ups and downs of commerce that would/could have happened with any normal election uncertainty/change of policy.

[Pacific231G]

Peco is indeed very successful in the States. Good quality at reasonable prices, about to get even lower as the recently devalued pound works it way through the system. I use Peco products extensively on my layout. All bought in the US.

 

As far as I know, the UK has no special trading arrangement with the US that favors Peco. Given that, I would suggest that company become a model for a future "Brexited" UK. The lower pound really should help a lot.

Hi Ronny

That's good to know. Several forums in the US talked of it as a "premium brand", good quality but more expensive than others so what would they have been comparing it with? When I modelled N. American railways (my layout was supposedly set in Canada) I used Shinohara but I was aware of cheaper brands like Atlas. BTW and just out of curiosity are you using 83 line or Streamline?  .

[Mike Storey]

   

The problem I have is: who, exactly is claiming that they are "minority views". Perhaps some pollster? We all know how reliable they are. Or perhaps they are the "minority" that we were all assured would vote for Brexit? It may surprise many, especially those celebrities of science, and those with alternate agendas linked closely to the EU, that there are scientists who also support Brexit.

 

One of the biggest falsehoods is the term "Political Science". As for statistics, well they are also behind these polls and the route cause of their inability to predict anything is sampling size/technique. Lies, damned lies and statistics will forever hold true - even in medical science where politics (small p) still plays an enormous role.

 

But back to the railways: I seriously doubt if Brexit will have any real impact on safety or operation beyond the normal ups and downs of commerce that would/could have happened with any normal election uncertainty/change of policy.

 

Er, but the the vast majority of the polls in the final week proved to be right in the case of the probable outcome of the referendum. Your contention is therefore disproven.

 

Of course safety and operations will not be affected in the short to medium term. It is almost certain that a more right wing, Friedman-leaning government will emerge from this, and that will have rapid effects on the funding of the railways and railway projects (the latter along with the loss of TENS and regional development funding via the EU) as they try to balance the books rather faster than had been intended. Mrs Leadsom has already said she would cancel HS2. What else I wonder?

[Ronny]

Hi Ronny

That's good to know. Several forums in the US talked of it as a "premium brand", good quality but more expensive than others so what would they have been comparing it with? When I modelled N. American railways (my layout was supposedly set in Canada) I used Shinohara but I was aware of cheaper brands like Atlas. BTW and just out of curiosity are you using 83 line or Streamline?  .

 

I originally laid a lot of code 100 but I'm slowly (and painfully) converting to code 83. About 50% there. It's worth the effort based on looks but I sure wish I had started that way! I'll probably leave fiddle & hidden in 100. What the eye cannot see ....

 

I've always used electrofrog so I did get that decision correct and rather surprisingly given my dunce level electrics, my wiring has held up well. Even the "fancy" diode matrices for routing. No, I'm not DCC.

 

I suppose you could say Peco was "premium" but the only lower price alternatives are toy track from Atlas, Bachmann and the ilk. Shudder. Peco seems very reasonably priced to me and widespread. I think everybody carries it.

[Pacific231G]

   

The problem I have is: who, exactly is claiming that they are "minority views". Perhaps some pollster? We all know how reliable they are. Or perhaps they are the "minority" that we were all assured would vote for Brexit? It may surprise many, especially those celebrities of science, and those with alternate agendas linked closely to the EU, that there are scientists who also support Brexit.

 

One of the biggest falsehoods is the term "Political Science". As for statistics, well they are also behind these polls and the route cause of their inability to predict anything is sampling size/technique. Lies, damned lies and statistics will forever hold true - even in medical science where politics (small p) still plays an enormous role.

 

But back to the railways: I seriously doubt if Brexit will have any real impact on safety or operation beyond the normal ups and downs of commerce that would/could have happened with any normal election uncertainty/change of policy.

I know there is room for error (asking a thousand scientist their views is very different from comparing billions of collisions in the LHC and so detecting the Higgs boson) but surveys showing 80-85% of scientists taking a particular view are unlikely to be reflecting anything other than a very substantial majority view though of course about one scientist in eight did indeed take the opposite view.

The overall polls for the referendum weren't actually that far out, a few percentage points at the end but with such a close result that was the difference between leave and remain.

 

I agree with you about Political Science, I'd say much the same about economics but though a liar will often misuse statistics, and they can be very selectively quoted, they're not inherently faulty.

 

A good example that shouldn't get me into trouble with the mods and does relate to railways is whether travelling by train is more or less safe than travelling by air. For an individual journey the risks in both cases are vanishingly small but in the developed world,  the risk of mortality per billion kilometres is slightly less for air than rail. However, the risks for flying are very concentrated in the take off and approach so, since airlines usually compete with trains on relatively short haul routes, it may well be that the risk for those shorter flights is significantly higher. If you compare the risk per hour you get a very different outcome,  trains come out better (though one crash wil significantly distort any of these over several years) if you quote risk per journey, a rail journey is up to five times safer than a flight.

 

You can quote any of these figures to make a point but if you understand the statistics you can know what they're actuallly reporting.

 

Personally I think it's better to understand statistics than to simply dismiss them as what comes after damn lies.

 

Going back to the OP the impact on safety is likely to be in the long term if the ralways end up being starved of investment.

[Kenton]

 

Personally I think it's better to understand statistics than to simply dismiss them as what comes after damn lies.

 

I have a pretty good grasp of statistics (of the medical variety) I spent a fair number of years manipulating reporting them to the regulatory authorities demonstrating toxicity and efficacy. I have also presented in court. The main problem with them is sample size and often who or how you choose to ask.

 

 

Going back to the OP the impact on safety is likely to be in the long term if the ralways end up being starved of investment.

 

The problem with this argument, and anything to do with the future, is that we simply have no idea of what it means in the short term let alone the long term. In the short term we have not heard of what the negotiations will entail just vague implications of opening gambits on both sides of the negotiation. If indeed it actually starts. In the medium term and definitely in the long term there will be several changes of government here and elsewhere. We could even end up with a traditional tax and spend government, much loved by many, where any "investment" is given priority. I would agree that some current projects, HS2 in particular, will be likely to be put back on the shelf. (not a bad thing in my personal opinion). Government in the UK has all but ground to a halt - not just for the usual holiday recess. Just about all policy is up in the air for the new PM to juggle.

The only truth is that it is all speculation. If anyone can predict the future with any certainty I'd like to know which nag will win at the 3:30 on Saturday? Anyway if I hear another politician predicting doom and gloom and saying I told you so WWIII might get a step nearer.

[stivesnick]

Might have missed this in the 10 pages of this thread, but the announcement of the new East Anglia franchise was meant to happen last week . Tempting to think that the EU vote may have had an impact in one of two ways.

 

1. It is likely that the new franchise will include large numbers of new trains, perhaps up to 1000 carriages. If these are coming from Europe ( UK suppliers have full order books) than any change in the exchange rate could affect overall cost and ability to afford it within the franchise

 

2. The second factor would be future growth in passenger numbers - there will be uncertainty on this would have to be factored into the bid.

 

I suspect some last minute reassessment of the bids are underway before an announcement is made.

 

Nick

[Coryton]

3. The entir

 

Might have missed this in the 10 pages of this thread, but the announcement of the new East Anglia franchise was meant to happen last week . Tempting to think that the EU vote may have had an impact in one of two ways.

 

1. It is likely that the new franchise will include large numbers of new trains, perhaps up to 1000 carriages. If these are coming from Europe ( UK suppliers have full order books) than any change in the exchange rate could affect overall cost and ability to afford it within the franchise

 

2. The second factor would be future growth in passenger numbers - there will be uncertainty on this would have to be factored into the bid.

 

I suspect some last minute reassessment of the bids are underway before an announcement is made.

 

Nick

 

3 The civil service has been a bit distracted and has had other things to do that are more urgent?

[stewartingram]

If anyone can predict the future with any certainty I'd like to know which nag will win at the 3:30 on Saturday?

 

I can't help with the nag, but I can let you have my lottery numbers? I get them right every week, it is just that those scumbags at Lottery HQ get them wrong. So incompetent they are.

 

Stewart

[Neil]

.... The problem with this argument, and anything to do with the future, is that we simply have no idea of what it means in the short term let alone the long term. ....

 

Are you arguing that all your speculative comments are invalid?

 

Given that we're going through financial and organisational chaos at the moment the majority of contributions to this thread will have an element of speculation; I don't see that there is a problem with this.

[Mark Dickerson]

Just about all policy is up in the air for the new PM to juggle.

Well, one of the candidates does want to cancel HS2 and build a new runway at both Heathrow and Gatwick, so...

[PhilJ W]

Well, one of the candidates does want to cancel HS2 and build a new runway at both Heathrow and Gatwick, so...

A lot of things that should have been placed at our own governments door had been blamed on the EU. Now I expect it will all be blamed on leaving the EU.

[Reorte]

Well, one of the candidates does want to cancel HS2 and build a new runway at both Heathrow and Gatwick, so...

If the thinking is limited resources and they think those are better things to spend money on...

 

I doubt there's any reason for leaving the EU to have any direct consequences on the railways. Where European standards and systems are being implemented for example there's no point in tearing them up and starting again even if it means that we wouldn't be obliged to implement them where we might've been. There will be indirect consequences of course, but "only" because what goes on on the railway can't be isolated from the wider economy (fair enough that that might be a rather large "only").

[jjb1970]

I think now that politicians once the media cannot scapegoat the EU for anything they don't like we will see opinion split into:

 

1. This is the calamitous result of a stupid decision to leave the EU (to be honest, I anticipate I'll be guilty of this)

 

2. This is the calamitous result of us not leaving the EU sooner or quickly enough, and the EU's nefarious attempts to punish us for Brexit

 

Luckily, I believe there will be enough pent up grievances about the EU to keep us going for a good while yet before we have to invent a new bogey man.

[jjb1970]

On railways I think there are a few things to consider already:

 

Positive:

 

The major loss of value of sterling may make the UK look like very good value for overseas investors

The devaluation will help exporting British companies

The devaluation will make UK labour costs more attractive to those companies operating in several countries and may assist us in attracting investment

The government may use infrastructure investment to boost the economy in a period of uncertainty, which could favour railways

 

Negative:

An almost overnight devaluation of 15% of a nations currency is not really a vote of confidence

The political vacuum makes us high risk in terms of investment planning and the uncertainty about what happens next (nobody knows what will happen next) does not encourage investment

Nobody knows whether we will be part of the single market or trade on WTO terms, that is crucial

Costs of anything we import are jumping up as a result of the currency devaluation

If the government has to cut spending to avoid public finances falling off a cliff then the railways are very vulnerable

 

Much of that may appear unimportant in terms of railways, but it is important as the health of railways is linked to economic health of the country and much of our railway equipment is imported.

 

There is also the political uncertainty in that we may end up with a government which is far less well disposed to rail than it was previously.

[jjb1970]

Something which is difficult to assess is the longer term affects of the current political climate on our skills pool. My previous employer was a UK based international company, very highly regarded around the world, and I'd estimate that less than 50% of the professional and technical staff in its main UK technical centre were UK nationals. I know a lot of the foreign workers are looking for either internal transfers to overseas offices of the company or are looking at leaving the organisation to either go home or go to another overseas location as they do not feel welcome in England and they have lost confidence in the UK's ability to manage itself. I do not work in the rail industry but I suspect this is probably also applicable to at least some degree to companies operating in UK railway equipment manufacture, R&D and engineering/technical functions.

['CHARD]

I do not work in the rail industry but I suspect this is probably also applicable to at least some degree to companies operating in UK railway equipment manufacture, R&D and engineering/technical functions.

 

The implications for the controlling transport groups will be interesting: Arriva and Abellio especially, Govia because of Keolis' stake, and new entrant Trenitalia.

 

Without these, competition for franchises will be confined to Stagecoach, First, Virgin, GoAhead, Serco and N-Ex....  Oh, hang on, and MTR.  Put like that, there's still a fair amount of interested parties.  Maybe we could attract interest from Australia (Macquarie Group anyone?), or possibly China....

 

I don't think what plays out on a global economic scale can yet be interpreted in rail terms....

[Coryton]

The implications for the controlling transport groups will be interesting: Arriva and Abellio especially, Govia because of Keolis' stake, and new entrant Trenitalia.

 

Without these, competition for franchises will be confined to Stagecoach, First, Virgin, GoAhead, Serco and N-Ex....  Oh, hang on, and MTR.  Put like that, there's still a fair amount of interested parties.  Maybe we could attract interest from Australia (Macquarie Group anyone?), or possibly China....

 

I don't think what plays out on a global economic scale can yet be interpreted in rail terms....

 

Whatever happens, I very much doubt that it will preclude EU companies from bidding (and winning) rail franchises, or indeed operating/owning utilities in the UK,

 

It might make it less desirable. It might make it more desirable. Even if we knew what direction the UK was going to take, it probably wouldn't be obvious what effect that would have. Currently we have uncertainty piled upon uncertainty...

[Mike Storey]

Whatever happens, I very much doubt that it will preclude EU companies from bidding (and winning) rail franchises, or indeed operating/owning utilities in the UK,

 

It might make it less desirable. It might make it more desirable. Even if we knew what direction the UK was going to take, it probably wouldn't be obvious what effect that would have. Currently we have uncertainty piled upon uncertainty...

 

One would have to wait and see what new rules replace the current free movement of capital, particularly as regards the treatment of the exportability of "costs" to what might become "overseas" parent companies, which is currently used to reduce tax in the operating country and boost it in the parent country, or divert it to a low tax country, such as Luxembourg. Osborne's reduction of CGT probably anticipates this.

 

On another front, one potential change we might see is the reversion of NR to its previous status, as the EU accounting rules would no longer, presumably, be applied. This gets its debt off the govt books and allows it to raise investment externally again. Given that NR's debt is forecast to rise to around £50 billion by the end of the current period in 2019, it is something a cash strapped govt would probably want rid of. I doubt it could sell NR with debt like that, plus pension obligations, but who knows in this wild new world?

[jjb1970]

The implications for the controlling transport groups will be interesting: Arriva and Abellio especially, Govia because of Keolis' stake, and new entrant Trenitalia.

 

Without these, competition for franchises will be confined to Stagecoach, First, Virgin, GoAhead, Serco and N-Ex....  Oh, hang on, and MTR.  Put like that, there's still a fair amount of interested parties.  Maybe we could attract interest from Australia (Macquarie Group anyone?), or possibly China....

 

I don't think what plays out on a global economic scale can yet be interpreted in rail terms....

 

I think in terms of foreign inward investment that will be determined by commercial considerations. At the moment the low pound makes us look cheap and our labour costs have suddenly become a lot more competitive, against this the fact that nobody has a clue what will happen in the months ahead, a political vacuum and the uncertainty around single market access weigh heavily. My concern is less about this than about the fact that an awful lot of UK companies (and foreign companies operating in the UK) are very reliant on immigrant staff to continue operating. And a lot of those workers are at the top end of the value chain with professional expertise which would be very hard to replace (the reason so many companies rely on immigrants is that they couldn't source these skills at home). I have quite a few good friends who are looking to go elsewhere as they don't feel comfortable here, which I find very sad at a personal level and worrying for UK plc.

[Bernard Lamb]

I think in terms of foreign inward investment that will be determined by commercial considerations. At the moment the low pound makes us look cheap and our labour costs have suddenly become a lot more competitive, against this the fact that nobody has a clue what will happen in the months ahead, a political vacuum and the uncertainty around single market access weigh heavily. My concern is less about this than about the fact that an awful lot of UK companies (and foreign companies operating in the UK) are very reliant on immigrant staff to continue operating. And a lot of those workers are at the top end of the value chain with professional expertise which would be very hard to replace (the reason so many companies rely on immigrants is that they couldn't source these skills at home). I have quite a few good friends who are looking to go elsewhere as they don't feel comfortable here, which I find very sad at a personal level and worrying for UK plc.

I am glad you put "makes us look cheap" rather than being actually cheap. Past experience points to galloping inflation very quickly overriding any advantage gained from devaluation. That will I hope not be as bad this time round due to various contingency plans. However with so much trade conducted in dollars rather than local currency the hit will be larger than it at first appears. Trade with Israel for example. As for people not feeling comfortable. I could introduce you to rather more people than just your few good friends. Oh for the halcyon days of a personal contact at the Home Office to cover  any problems in adapting to life in the UK and a fast track British Passport in less tan a month. As you say it is very sad.

Bernard

[pete_mcfarlane]

My concern is less about this than about the fact that an awful lot of UK companies (and foreign companies operating in the UK) are very reliant on immigrant staff to continue operating. And a lot of those workers are at the top end of the value chain with professional expertise which would be very hard to replace (the reason so many companies rely on immigrants is that they couldn't source these skills at home).

My own experiences in my industry (IT) make me less worried. I've encountered plenty of Indians, Americans and Africans (mostly from SA and Nigeria) but very few Europeans (apart from the Irish, who will presumably be exempt from any possible future restrictions on EU immigration).

[Coryton]

A

 

My own experiences in my industry (IT) make me less worried. I've encountered plenty of Indians, Americans and Africans (mostly from SA and Nigeria) but very few Europeans (apart from the Irish, who will presumably be exempt from any possible future restrictions on EU immigration).

 

And you could argue that control over all immigration could allow more non-EU immigration than at present, given that this is the only area currently under control.

[jjb1970]

Most of the friends I have worried about this are from outside the EU and all of them either have been granted permanent leave to remain or now have UK passports so their concerns are not related to potential risks of being forced to leave. Their concerns are stemming from the emotions which the referendum uncovered and whether or not it is an anecdotal issue not supported by objective reporting or something more tangible it does seem many people are feeling quite threatened and uncomfortable just now. I work in a particularly international industry as marine was globalised many decades before the expression globalisation was dreamt up and there has been a huge shift in the balance of power and skills base from the USA and Europe to Asia over several decades. Which means that companies in Europe often rely on Japanese, Korean, Chinese, Indian, Filipino etc workers for essential skills. In a sense the issue is less about immigration rules (as has been said, the post Brexit regime may actually be beneficial for Asian people) and much more about emotion and sentiment. I must admit, this particular issue is particularly relevant to my own family and my wife has not been at all impressed by some of the comments and behaviours which seem to have been released by the referendum.